14 April, 2024

Blog

Tamil Nadu’s Day Of Destiny Is Very Close

By S. Sivathasan

S. Sivathasan

Tamil Nadu has taken a decade of indefatigable effort of which the last five years were marked by incessant work by both the state and the centre. Even a weighty mass moves with impetus from the leadership. So the King, so the subjects goes a Tamil saying. At the best click of the moment, Modi captured it and Annamalai has moved in tandem. At no point in over a century, have two reputable leaders in Indian politics moved in tandem from the centre and the state as of now.

Tamil Nadu Performance in 2014 and 2019 and Forecast for 2024

Results of the last two elections had no correlation, one with the other. Neither did the two previous ones have even any similarity. The only observation one could make in the five elections was that the fortunes of the two parties alternated at every election. No law is derivable. The incumbent being pushed out in favour of the unknown saint has been the only consistent factor. In making forecasts an uninfluenced study is not observable. A dominance of recent results appears to have prevailed in assessing forthcoming outcomes.

Two Idealists as Leaders

Two great phenomena to have influenced the current decade and thereby charting the future are Narendra Modi for the nation and Annamalai for the state of Tamil Nadu. There is however a difference between the two. Modi had three spells as Chief Minister of Gujarat where he acquitted himself as a pragmatic leader who grasped the aspirations of the polity and proved himself to be a deliverer. It was a performance to make him the cynosure among Chief Ministers. With such a record, vertical take-off came to him naturally and speedily without experiencing a day in Lok Sabha having numerous states and the widest diversity

Annamalai has had the benefit of experiencing a decade of the nation’s growth and development. It was for a respectable period. Modi had launched a decade of break with the past and significant corpus of change and reforms. While the nation profited from the Prime Minister’s dynamic leadership, Tamil Nadu was not benefitting from an honest approach to economic growth or social advancement. The state faced the scourge of corruption, decrepit familial rule, nepotism and failure at drawing on the state’s human potential.

The political environment was set for a man of requisite attributes and patriotic fervour to stretch his hand to the wheel. His academic credentials and public service experience together with propensity for study and endowed with linguistic proficiency thrust him into a leadership position. Where? In a state blessed with high development magnitudes.

Birds of a Feather

Annamalai has had the wisdom to identify his predilection for political leadership in his state of birth and Modi the sagacity to note his precocity for positions of responsibility. In line with the thinking of ancient Greek philosophers, Annamalai said recently, “The highest calling for a man is

Politics”. Modi has the wisdom to think like a Sangam Tamil poet who said, “Selection to Kingship is based not on age but on one’s attribute of sagacity”. India has seen such adroitness displayed in the choice of his ministers and in the selection of personages for high level responsibility. Therein lies the paramountcy of electing the best in calibre for the highest levels in the Legislature. On the quality of the legislature resides the excellence of the Executive. Hence the travails and the expenditure at elections to bring out the best in the polity, to the highest echelons of direction and movement. The cost to government is estimated at Rs. 200 billion for the Indian Lok Sabha election 2024. The proposed centre, state and local government elections to be held coterminously in 5 years from now will find fruition. Moving away from repetitive expenditure and avoidance of dislocation to administration will be an admirable forward step.                   

Examinations and Elections

However hard students may study for public examinations the hardest effort is seen in the last lap of self-study. Similar are intensive mustering of energy and resources for electoral success. The administration takes on the task of invigilation in this competitive process. The party in power at the centre in the period antecedent to the election is better resourced. Yet parties wielding authority in the states of India match theirs by unleashing money power. This home truth at play in devious ways at the hustings is well known to the electors. This practice makes forecasting results rather protracted. Expensive efforts through studies to read the minds of voters are undertaken however.

Past Behaviour of Voters

Statistics of past elections show voting patterns and strategies adopted to woo the electors. The most convincing lesson from the first election in 1952, has been the emergence of alliances to compose coalitions. Results have shown that they worked and the practice has gained permanency.

From the 1st Lok Sabha election held in 1952 after independence and the 17th in 2019, certain observations can be drawn. The first 17years were absorbed in consolidating the fruits of independence for which the nation owed its debt to two towering personalities, Nehru and Patel. It was natural for the Congress to walk into Lok Sabha. Lal Bahadur Shastri and Indra Gandhi took the era to 1977.

Tamil Nadu however terminated the golden age of Kamaraj and his successor in 1967, when the DMK and later AIADMK dominated the state of Tamil Nadu. There was certainly visible improvement and growth in both the Dravidian dispensations lasting 57 years. At every general election with a single exception, alliance partners were needed to have a state majority in the central legislature – Lok Sabha. The only exception was in 2014, when Jayalalitha stood alone and won 37 out of 39 seats. At other times, an unwholesome feature was piggy-backing for decades on end. From 1984 to 1996 Congress had a fair presence. For 20 years from 1999, DMK and ADMK were alternate victors at the centre. What was most striking was the winner getting a handsome majority and the loser left in dire straits in each encounter.

An Unprecedented Encounter in 2024

The BJP had the good sense to enter the electoral fray in 2021, without the requisite preparation being well in place. The handsome reward was the experience of rubbing in the need for cutting edge organization. A refreshed, nascent BJP came well in time for the forthcoming 2024 challenge.

The DMK and the AIADMK had both lost their eye-catching leaders. The successors were relatively lustre-less. In contrast was the illustrious Annamalai, who had already managed an election in a fair portion of Karnataka, earning the plaudits of the Prime Minister. In Tamil Nadu when he entered the field he was a well established national figure who had secured for himself a reputation for sagacity and respect. The two Dravidian Model leaders remain badly tainted with charges of corruption and dynastic build ups as the media reveal. The parties themselves are frayed and colour less with no achievement to place before the public. As much repugnant is the Congress which has no credit to speak about.

Embezzlements Unlimited

What Tamil Nadu, India and the world are witness to is an uneven contest between a dynamic BJP and a faceless I,N,D.I.A alliance. With the exception of BJP most of the Alliances are in disarray. The DMK is riddled with half a century of limitless corruption as seen in List1 published in the media in April 2023. Virtually on a daily basis, arrests and remands are reaching the voter masses very convincingly. Most damning is the colossal amounts of contraband seized from the Minister son of the Chief Minister. They were getting ferreted out from the farm house of the said Son and Minister. For this crime the culprit got remanded more than once. The monetary resources of the DMK are getting sequestered by the day for serious financial embezzlement. The AIADMK too is greatly tainted.

Results

In less than four weeks results can be predicted with some precision.

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Latest comments

  • 20
    11

    Also your day of destiny and posting Hindutva extremist rubbish here is also drawing close.

    • 18
      13

      Hope you celebrated the north Indian Hindu festival Holi that was yesterday and lots of people threw coloured powder and water on you. You deserve this

      • 21
        7

        Corruption is the theme on which all parties work. BJP is no exception to this. BJP does this with all powers in their hands.

        • 13
          2

          Varunan, even BJP / Modi has stopped mentioning the word “corruption free’. All they say now is, ” how corrupted are the opposition.” Does the author or his sidekick know about recent SC verdict on ” ELECTORAL BONDS ” ( BJP legalizing , illegal campaign financing ), recent SC verdict and the list of people who financed different political parties . . . . .can be freely accessed. Unless the author knows things , which I’m unaware after living for a decade. Just like people in Lanka are clueless of many things, even after 75 years of in-dependence.

          • 12
            2

            If in doubt check the world corruption index ( position of India throughout Modi rule ) or recently declared assets of candidates including BJP incumbents. Growth of the nation is no match to growth of their personal assets. I remember , one of early election promise of BJP being ” bring back the black / stolen money” . They sure did, money was returned to party coffers and not treasury. ( see list of electoral bond contributors ). Here is an example, according to election commission of India ( March 14 ), The ruling BJP was by-far the biggest beneficiary of the electoral bond sham receiving 6, 061 CRORE ( yes you heard it right ) as political donations in last 5 years, since introduced by very own BJP govt. Data submitted by SBI, to SC after severe warning.

      • 4
        1

        “north Indian Hindu festival Holi that was yesterday and lots of people threw coloured powder and water”
        Don’t you have a sense of fun?
        They enjoy it, and why pour scorn on it?

        • 10
          4

          SJ Thaatha, yes, I have a sense of fun and this is why I wanted Muthachan (grandfather) Sivathasan, who looks so sad and gloomy to have lots of fun, with everyone squirting coloured water and throwing coloured powder on him,

          • 0
            0

            But it is not good taste to be insulting about the Holi.

  • 9
    18

    I agree with the writer. The scenario in Tamil Nadu has fully changed. The downfall of DMK began with the criticism of Sanatana Dharma and followed by the arrest of Jafer Sadiq pertaining to drug trafficking the value of which is several crores. Moreover, several DMK stalwarts especially Stalin, Uthayanithy Stalin, his relatives are involved. In addition the case of 2G scam is about to be taken up for inquiry. As it is Annamalai has proved his position beyond reasonable doubt, while Stalin is also likely to lose his seat. BJP in Tamil Nadu is certain to win most of the Lok Sabha seats while Modi’s BJP is about to secure almost 400 seats.

    • 19
      6

      I don’t care two hoots about what goes on in Tamil Nadu. But, I care about AYATHURAY RAJASINGAM. I care about S. Sivathasan. Both of you are nutty professors!
      .
      We have to find a way to extricate ourselves from the clutches of the Sinhalese.
      Devote your time to do something practical and meaningful.

      • 5
        12

        Nathan,
        Just be patient till the results of the Lok Sabha elections are released.

        • 15
          5

          And then ???? haven’t we heard enough from you two.

  • 2
    19

    “Tamil Nadu’s Day Of Destiny Is Very Close”
    .
    So this is the day after which India is going to occupy the North and the East of Sri Lanka? After which Tamils could live happily ever after?

  • 16
    4

    Ayathuray Rajapasingam,

    “BJP in Tamil Nadu is certain to win most of the Lok Sabha seats”
    If that didn’t happen, what is your next move?

    • 5
      13

      Ajith,
      Thank you. Do not worry. That will never happen. Next move will be AKHAND BHARATH which will be beneficial for both the Tamils & the Sinhalese, but for the politicians whether they be Tamils or Sinhalese.

    • 15
      3

      Ajith , hopefully stop writing this kind of rubbish. I doubt. Come next election it will be same song, in a different tune. BJP will obviously return to power but dosen’t mean most LS seats in TN. If interested in knowing real facts read Rajan .P. His article also explains the difference between DEMOCRACY ( partial) and DEMOCRAZY.

    • 2
      1

      He will change his name, grow a beard, don a saffron robe and join the saffron brigade on a long march to Varanasi.

  • 5
    13

    The author has expressed the current political climate that is steadily gathering support from the masses day by day towards BJP for the next polls. He is able to vouch and reason out his arguments for the impending victory for BJP with a resounding victory at the coming general elections, surely through exhaustive investigation and study of the present political wave moving in the country.
    Some knowledgeable people of Indian origin whom i meet often in this country too support this idea and express certainty of another BJP government in India.
    Tamil Nadu too will have a sizeable representation giving a formidable challenge to the D MK or AIDMK whatever it may be.

    • 5
      11

      P.Rajeswaran,
      It is not sizeable representation of the BJP in Tamil Nadu, but almost full control of Tamil Nadu. People in Tamil Nadu are totally against the Dravidian Model and are in favour of the Sanatana Dharma. They are also against drug trafficking in which majority of the DMKers are engaged, after Jafer Sadiq was arrested. People will drive away the DMK because of their corrupt practices also. Annamalai is certain to win with 70 % of the votes. This is the reality today.

  • 4
    13

    Contd-

    I feel that some of the commentators who post comments in these collumns are mired with their old notion of BJP and Hindutwa, which is no more in vogue in the party.

    • 1
      0

      PR
      I like your sense of satire.

  • 5
    12

    ” The two Dravidian Model leaders remain badly tainted with charges of corruption and dynastic build ups as the media reveal. “

    The author should talk about discrimination against Brahmins in Tamil Nadu. The quota for “backward castes” is around 68%. In other words 68% of all seats in educational or government are guaranteed for the “backward castes” irrespective of performance. By comparison, in Sri Lanka in 1971, Sinhalese students had to score 229/400 to enter the medical faculty, whereas it was 250/400 for Tamil students. Somehow this miniscule 5% difference constitutes “genocide” and marks the beginning of an “armed freedom struggle” according to some commentators here. Common sense – there is little difference in the knowledge gap between someone scoring 85% and 90%. Back to 68%, that is a hell of a quota. No wonder that Brahmins like the Google CEO have gone overseas.

    • 6
      1

      Lester,
      “Sinhalese students had to score 229/400 to enter the medical faculty, whereas it was 250/400 for Tamil students.”
      So, you think Anuruddha Padeniya was an unsung genius? Education isn’t the sum of the marks you get. There are qualities which you can’t detect with exams. That’s why merit-based exams followed by a viva voce should be compulsory.

      • 0
        4

        Old Codger,

        So that people like you can enter through the “back door?” Reservation gave more opportunities to untouchable castes. But TN still lacks chlorinated water. Quantity is not a substitute for quality.

  • 8
    5

    It is very sad and disgusting that the author continues to promote Modi and his Hindutva politics in CT as a propagandist. Yes BJP will likely come to power again and there are many reasons for that. The important issue to note is what the rise of BJP/RSS politics will do to the country at large, where it is leading and what type of appeal this political formation relies on to rally its base. This is a general phenomenon around the world and liberal democracy is in crisis. What is emerging in this context is not any enlightening new political formation but reactionary ideological formations such as the BJP. In Tamil Nadu politics corruption is a major problem but the BJP is not an alternative to DMK, which will transform the state into another backward society undermining many achievements it gained. The interview of Parakala Prabhakar, the husband of the BJP Finance Minister is worth listening to: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KFqzELcrB3s

    • 4
      5

      Karthi,
      “It is very sad and disgusting that the author continues to promote Modi and his Hindutva politics in CT as a propagandist. “
      Take it as the comedy page of CT. Don’t we need entertainment?

Leave A Comment

Comments should not exceed 200 words. Embedding external links and writing in capital letters are discouraged. Commenting is automatically disabled after 5 days and approval may take up to 24 hours. Please read our Comments Policy for further details. Your email address will not be published.