By S. Sivathasan –

S. Sivathasan

Tamil Nadu has taken a decade of indefatigable effort of which the last five years were marked by incessant work by both the state and the centre. Even a weighty mass moves with impetus from the leadership. So the King, so the subjects goes a Tamil saying. At the best click of the moment, Modi captured it and Annamalai has moved in tandem. At no point in over a century, have two reputable leaders in Indian politics moved in tandem from the centre and the state as of now.

Tamil Nadu Performance in 2014 and 2019 and Forecast for 2024

Results of the last two elections had no correlation, one with the other. Neither did the two previous ones have even any similarity. The only observation one could make in the five elections was that the fortunes of the two parties alternated at every election. No law is derivable. The incumbent being pushed out in favour of the unknown saint has been the only consistent factor. In making forecasts an uninfluenced study is not observable. A dominance of recent results appears to have prevailed in assessing forthcoming outcomes.

Two Idealists as Leaders

Two great phenomena to have influenced the current decade and thereby charting the future are Narendra Modi for the nation and Annamalai for the state of Tamil Nadu. There is however a difference between the two. Modi had three spells as Chief Minister of Gujarat where he acquitted himself as a pragmatic leader who grasped the aspirations of the polity and proved himself to be a deliverer. It was a performance to make him the cynosure among Chief Ministers. With such a record, vertical take-off came to him naturally and speedily without experiencing a day in Lok Sabha having numerous states and the widest diversity

Annamalai has had the benefit of experiencing a decade of the nation’s growth and development. It was for a respectable period. Modi had launched a decade of break with the past and significant corpus of change and reforms. While the nation profited from the Prime Minister’s dynamic leadership, Tamil Nadu was not benefitting from an honest approach to economic growth or social advancement. The state faced the scourge of corruption, decrepit familial rule, nepotism and failure at drawing on the state’s human potential.

The political environment was set for a man of requisite attributes and patriotic fervour to stretch his hand to the wheel. His academic credentials and public service experience together with propensity for study and endowed with linguistic proficiency thrust him into a leadership position. Where? In a state blessed with high development magnitudes.

Birds of a Feather

Annamalai has had the wisdom to identify his predilection for political leadership in his state of birth and Modi the sagacity to note his precocity for positions of responsibility. In line with the thinking of ancient Greek philosophers, Annamalai said recently, “The highest calling for a man is

Politics”. Modi has the wisdom to think like a Sangam Tamil poet who said, “Selection to Kingship is based not on age but on one’s attribute of sagacity”. India has seen such adroitness displayed in the choice of his ministers and in the selection of personages for high level responsibility. Therein lies the paramountcy of electing the best in calibre for the highest levels in the Legislature. On the quality of the legislature resides the excellence of the Executive. Hence the travails and the expenditure at elections to bring out the best in the polity, to the highest echelons of direction and movement. The cost to government is estimated at Rs. 200 billion for the Indian Lok Sabha election 2024. The proposed centre, state and local government elections to be held coterminously in 5 years from now will find fruition. Moving away from repetitive expenditure and avoidance of dislocation to administration will be an admirable forward step.                   

Examinations and Elections

However hard students may study for public examinations the hardest effort is seen in the last lap of self-study. Similar are intensive mustering of energy and resources for electoral success. The administration takes on the task of invigilation in this competitive process. The party in power at the centre in the period antecedent to the election is better resourced. Yet parties wielding authority in the states of India match theirs by unleashing money power. This home truth at play in devious ways at the hustings is well known to the electors. This practice makes forecasting results rather protracted. Expensive efforts through studies to read the minds of voters are undertaken however.

Past Behaviour of Voters

Statistics of past elections show voting patterns and strategies adopted to woo the electors. The most convincing lesson from the first election in 1952, has been the emergence of alliances to compose coalitions. Results have shown that they worked and the practice has gained permanency.

From the 1st Lok Sabha election held in 1952 after independence and the 17^th in 2019, certain observations can be drawn. The first 17years were absorbed in consolidating the fruits of independence for which the nation owed its debt to two towering personalities, Nehru and Patel. It was natural for the Congress to walk into Lok Sabha. Lal Bahadur Shastri and Indra Gandhi took the era to 1977.

Tamil Nadu however terminated the golden age of Kamaraj and his successor in 1967, when the DMK and later AIADMK dominated the state of Tamil Nadu. There was certainly visible improvement and growth in both the Dravidian dispensations lasting 57 years. At every general election with a single exception, alliance partners were needed to have a state majority in the central legislature – Lok Sabha. The only exception was in 2014, when Jayalalitha stood alone and won 37 out of 39 seats. At other times, an unwholesome feature was piggy-backing for decades on end. From 1984 to 1996 Congress had a fair presence. For 20 years from 1999, DMK and ADMK were alternate victors at the centre. What was most striking was the winner getting a handsome majority and the loser left in dire straits in each encounter.

An Unprecedented Encounter in 2024

The BJP had the good sense to enter the electoral fray in 2021, without the requisite preparation being well in place. The handsome reward was the experience of rubbing in the need for cutting edge organization. A refreshed, nascent BJP came well in time for the forthcoming 2024 challenge.

The DMK and the AIADMK had both lost their eye-catching leaders. The successors were relatively lustre-less. In contrast was the illustrious Annamalai, who had already managed an election in a fair portion of Karnataka, earning the plaudits of the Prime Minister. In Tamil Nadu when he entered the field he was a well established national figure who had secured for himself a reputation for sagacity and respect. The two Dravidian Model leaders remain badly tainted with charges of corruption and dynastic build ups as the media reveal. The parties themselves are frayed and colour less with no achievement to place before the public. As much repugnant is the Congress which has no credit to speak about.

Embezzlements Unlimited

What Tamil Nadu, India and the world are witness to is an uneven contest between a dynamic BJP and a faceless I,N,D.I.A alliance. With the exception of BJP most of the Alliances are in disarray. The DMK is riddled with half a century of limitless corruption as seen in List1 published in the media in April 2023. Virtually on a daily basis, arrests and remands are reaching the voter masses very convincingly. Most damning is the colossal amounts of contraband seized from the Minister son of the Chief Minister. They were getting ferreted out from the farm house of the said Son and Minister. For this crime the culprit got remanded more than once. The monetary resources of the DMK are getting sequestered by the day for serious financial embezzlement. The AIADMK too is greatly tainted.

Results

In less than four weeks results can be predicted with some precision.