15 December, 2017

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The Crisis Of The Opposition & The Crisis Of The State

By Dayan Jayatilleka –

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

It is no accident that the renovation and recovery of the British Labour Party during the long night of Thatcherism was intellectually spearheaded by three outstanding theoreticians of the Marxian Left, Eric Hobsbawm, Stuart Hall and Martin Jacques, all of whom drew on the political science of Antonio Gramsci to critically comprehend the success, national and cultural, of the Thatcher phenomenon of ‘authoritarian populism’ (Stuart Hall) and the ossification and obsolescence of the Labour Opposition.

There is no better guide to understanding the dual crises of Sri Lankan opposition and state and likely outcomes than Gramsci. His pertinently titled ‘Observations on certain aspects of the structure of political parties in periods of Organic Crisis’ in the essay ‘State and Civil Society’ in his Prison Notebooks could well have been about the United National Party:

‘At a certain point in their historical lives, social classes become detached from their traditional parties. In other words the traditional parties in that particular organizational form, with the particular men who constitute, represent and lead them, are no longer recognised by their class (or fraction of a class) as its expression. When such crises occur, the immediate situation becomes delicate and dangerous, because the field is open for violent solutions, for the activities of unknown forces, represented by charismatic “men of destiny” ’. – State and Civil Society, Prison Notebooks.

Dating from the Chandrika Kumaratunga presidency and turning torrential in the successor Rajapaksa regime, the UNP under the leadership of Ranil Wickremesinghe has found its electoral support base halved, losing vast swathes of its traditional social support at both ends of the social spectrum– the Sinhala Buddhist peasant masses as well as chunks of the capitalist class.  It is in the throes of a classic ‘organic crisis’. As Gramsci went on to stress, this results in an extremely dangerous political situation and endgames. We shall see how this may work in the contemporary Sri Lankan context.

There are three possible scenarios of the future of the United National Party.

(I) While retaining its present leadership it becomes the beneficiary of the near-totality of the minority vote, an erosion of the Sinhala support base of the regime due to the external squeeze on the Government (Geneva March 2014) and the resultant economic crunch, augmented by a split in the regime’s vote bank caused by a Chandrika-driven spoiler candidacy. This is the Ranil-Mangala strategic project of a domestic prong of an external-internal pincer.

(II) The downward spiral of the UNP continues, with a leakage of voters and MPs to the regime and voters to Gen Fonseka’s DP.

(III) A new leader rebrands and re-positions the party as a moderate centrist alternative, causing a revival of its electoral prospects at Presidential and parliamentary levels—perhaps more decisively at the latter than the former.

Which of these three scenarios prevails depends on whether the UNP’s crisis is (A) situational/ ‘conjunctural’ or (B) structural/systemic. In diagnosis (A) the UNP’s crisis is definable as a crisis of leadership and ideology. In diagnosis (B) the multiple dysfunctions are symptomatic of the leadership crisis having turned malignant and metastasized, causing a compound crisis of the formation as a totality.

If the former, either the prospect of the next round of provincial elections, or more likely the traumatic outcome of that round next year will trigger the leadership revision that is necessary for rectification and revival before the all-important national elections.

If the crisis is structural or systemic, the possible alternatives to the existing leadership will be unable to prevail or worse still, remained trapped into virtual paralysis, both unable to prevail and unwilling to launch a new centrist, moderate nationalist project outside the party.

I am agnostic as to which of the two diagnoses of the UNP’s crisis is correct. It does seem that the dog-in-the-manger stance of the present UNP leader will be able to sustain itself given that he belongs to an influential and wealthy family clan which has a long association with the party and owns a segment of the mass media, while he has himself been around for a longer time in UNP politics than the alternative personalities and has a grip on the party apparatus, having been able to shape it over two decades. These socio-political assets and the conformist consciousness of the organizational apparatus of what has reverted to a profoundly conservative rightwing party, constitute the enabling environment in which Ranil Wickremesinghe is more determined to remain than his critics and competitors are to replace him. In the conformist nutrient medium of a UNP battered and depleted by the serial assassination of its more spirited leading personalities by the LTTE, Mr Wickremesinghe displays more political will to stay than his critics do to dislodge him.

Those critics and competitors are also hampered by their unwillingness to admit to themselves that their future is structurally blighted within the UNP in its current state of decay and degeneration. The UNP that the Reformists are loyal to is a lost civilization which no longer exists except residually at the grassroots. That grassroots UNP remains crushed by the failure to resolve the crisis by the only two means possible, namely an ouster or a breakaway.

Earlier, more spirited generations of politicians, having found themselves thwarted within parent political parties, decisively broke from them and launched successful new projects (while some of them returned in triumph to lead their mother parties): DS Senanayake, SWRD Bandaranaike, SJV Chelvanayagam, Rohana Wijeweera, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga, Gamini Dissanaike, Lalith Athulathmudali.  Ranasinghe Premadasa was a significant variant, always keeping open the option of an independent project and formation—he was planning to run as a common candidate if he were deprived of the candidacy in 1988—and letting it be known that he possessed such a credible deterrent.

These personalities broke away from parties that were far more robust than today’s UNP and rebelled against leaders far stronger and more successful, or at least vastly more popular, than Mr Wickremesinghe. Sadly the current alternatives to Ranil are not men and women cut of the same cloth as these earlier dissident and political path-breakers. Thus the UNP’s crisis is almost as much the fault of Mr Wickremesinghe’s critics as it is of Mr Wickremesinghe himself.  They will neither launch a sustained rebellion against him not take the initiative to launch a new formation which represents the best of the UNP’s past and vision of a different better future for democratic politics. They are trapped within the UNP because they voluntarily remain so. Thus the UNP is trapped in the double bind of inability to throw out Ranil and the unavailability of an alternative provided by a recognised UNP personality.

However, politics, like nature – and life itself– abhors a vacuum. The UNP’s crisis shows signs of resolution of an unorthodox and (arguably) undesirable sort. Unable to change its leadership because the organizational apparatus is unwilling to, the ethos of the party Establishment remains conformist, and the Reformists aren’t rebels, the UNP at the grassroots is escaping the death-grip of Ranil Wickremesinghe’s leadership by getting out from under. They are defecting: They are heading in two directions as evidenced by the Dayasiri Jayasekara affaire and its electoral outcome and the Sarath Fonseka surge. The UNP voters are voting with their feet. Call it (crisis) resolution through (self) dissolution.

In an optimistic scenario these trends will get worse before they get better, but they will get better somewhere between the next round of provincial elections and the national ones. In a pessimistic scenario, either the leadership change will not take place even after the next PC elections or will prove too little too late for the party to retrieve its lost fortunes and prospects. The optimistic prognosis accords with the diagnosis that the UNP’s crisis is situational-conjunctural while the pessimistic prognosis flows from the diagnosis that it is structural-systemic.

If the latter proves true, for Sri Lanka taken as a whole this means a nightmare scenario of a dual deadlock: a regime that is unable to adapt and survive in the new international environment and a democratic opposition that is unable to do so the same in the post-war national environment. The predictable outcome would include a shift to secession in the North and from the current quasi-authoritarianism to outright military rule in the South.

The prospect of military rule or a military-civilian junta (Latin America in the two decades from the mid 60s to the mid 80s, Pakistan until the last election, Egypt before and after the Spring), can be triggered in two situations, not just the one: either by a Tamil Nadu tugged Northern secessionist surge or by the UNP’s best case scenario (I) listed at the commencement of this article. If there is an external-internal encirclement as in the Ranil-Mangala strategic project, the military as an institution will not go along with the individual officers who try to cut a deal with the UNP leadership for survival. Rather it will act to prevent the accession to power of an externally-assisted minoritarian bloc it perceives as unpatriotic enough to barter the victory over the LTTE and to yield to the West on issues of accountability for so-called war crimes. In short the military, driven by the ideology of what we may term the ‘Buddhist brotherhood’ will act to protect itself as well as its ethno-religious homeland. In the case of serious threat of exit by the North, the knee-jerk reflex will be to throw up a separation wall sealing off ‘contagion’ from without, erect a Garrison State, institute mandatory military service and tighten a ‘protective’ grip on the Sinhala heartland.

If this dystopian scenario comes about, Northern separatism cannot be prevented by Sri Lankan military force as it would be a Bangladesh-Kosovo process under R2P, and an ‘organic’ military regime south of Vavuniya cannot be uprooted in its traditional homeland by external force.

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    ok ok so you don’t like Ranil-so many many articles over the past week !!!

    Haven’t found anything to “laud” the regime and try and get back to Geneva?

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      I believe what is appropriate is for Dayan to write his own Crisis instead of the UNP and the State as we all know the Crisis of the UNP and the State.

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        gamini

        He should write about Malgudi Days with EPRLF.

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          Dayan theese days reminds me Long John Silver for some unknown reason.

          ‘Fifteen men on a dead man’s chest
          Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum
          Drink and the devil had done for the rest
          Yo ho ho and a bottle of rum’.

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            great comment Omar! You are very right.

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        Hay you Guys,

        First of all Give the devil it’s due without barking like dogs on Dr.Dayan J. in this forum.

        First of all learn to appreciate Dr.Dayan’s writings, his analysis and his views on various issues without saying which camp he belongs to. If you guys have better ideas and analysis write your own op-eds to CT, without murdering the messenger.

        Second if you guys have different views, write them and prove your points, without just barking at Dr.Dayan saying that he is a Regimes stooge, which I don’t think so. If you have evidence, prove them and don’t just bark like dogs in this forum.

        Third, all of you should agree that at the moment UNP is in a crisis and running all over like a Headless chicken. What are your suggestions, opinions and analysis in resolving this crisis in UNP, and who to lead it to make it a winning party…..

        Don’t you agree that Ranil is a Liability to UNP. If not give us your points. Ranil is a constant failure who gave Rajapakses 2005 Election on a Gold Platter. It is Ranil who let down his voters, now crying for split milk.

        Let’s have your opinions on UNP’s future and where it’s heading for rather than just castigating the writer without any evidence. It shows your class.

        Of couse India is closely watching President Rajapakse’s moves.

        After feeding over 150,000 Sri Lanka war refugees for over 34 years, India does not want another bunch of Sri Lankan “cuban boat people” to feed.

        If Rajapakses think they could play the next “Cuban boat people” drama by sending more refugees to India and Europe with another false flag 1983 like Racial progrom, they are badly mistaken. They will never be able to hoodwink India or the International community again like they did at last UNHRC and LLRC.

        It’s better for President Rajapakse to Implement everything that is in the 13th Amendment ASAP, rather than to face Hague…..and if Rajapakses understand the gravity of this, earlier the better for them.

        Rajapakses “Hara Kiri” murder suicide Politics on Sri Lanka’s economy and inter racial, communal and religion conflicts will only put the country in further trouble with another Kosovo or Sudan like situation.

        What Dr.Dayan J. says is true and an accident waiting to happen. Hope MR will get his brains back.

        Let’s have your opinions and views rather than sling mud.

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          Attacking Dayan for is vacillating position, a position that changes for HIS OWN profit is fully fair!!!

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        The biggest crisis with Dayan.

        How many articles he brought to CT platform all these few days…

        His aim is to fish on muddy water. No matter anyone would get hurt, he should continue his way of idisyncratic writing to attack the oppposition. Actually, we all should rally round to support the oppsotion at this critical juncture of the country^s highly corrupted politics.

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        Days that he would do so is not far. Wait and see :)

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          –The educated thought that he would bring balanced articles, but unfortunately, but the articles after president^s accusation towards him, are clearly varied from those in the past. May be president may have promised him an another laundry work secretly to the manner MR did it with Dayasiri Jayasekara. … What do you guys think about this ?

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    Dayan Missed a fourth scenario which is much more likely than scenario 3, which is the one we must be most worried about

    A new leader rebrands and re-positions the party as an extremist sinhala budhist alternative to the present regime, causing a revival of its electoral prospects at Presidential and parliamentary levels— which is where Sajith is headed

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      Yes You right Sajit premadas heading that way, Do you know every day bugger visiting Buddhist temples issuing freebies for people. He will choose destructive path soon just wait…

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        J.Muthu

        You went on a deep deep deep under cover mission to campaign for TNA just before the elections.

        This self destructive EPRLF guy is ruining your hard work and TNA’s rare success story.

        What are you going to do about him. You may have to go on a deep deep deep under cover mission to deal with him.

        Why do the Tamils call him Head of Mandayan Group? Have you seen any skeleton in his cupboard?

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          Oh my Native,
          I am not bother about this suresh and mandayan group. We tamils united against Sinhala Buddhist terrorism, Ltte gone and finished they will never come back. Most Tamils happy about this, but doesn’t mean they love Sinhala Buddhist brutals. We Tamils still believe no future in united stupid Srilanka. That’s all about my deep deep mission. Tamils never believe in any form of arm violence in near future its all depends on Sinhala Buddhist behaviour in future. Hope you understand…
          Any way how come your veddah leader angry against Mahinda rajapkse….just for inter cooler jeep. Typical u r a Sinhala roots..am I wrong…

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            J.Muthu

            “Any way how come your veddah leader angry against Mahinda rajapkse….just for inter cooler jeep. Typical u r a Sinhala roots..am I wrong”

            How come you conveniently missed the news on Veddahs readying for a fight against your Sinhala/Buddhist brethren, read the following news item:

            Veddah community readies to fight for their rights

            Published on Thursday, 09 August 2012 12:46

            (Srilankamirror) – As the world prepares to celebrate the international day dedicated to its indigenous people, the local Veddah community are readying to fight for their rights.

            At a meeting of their clan at Dambana yesterday (Aug .08), they decided to form an organization comprising 500,000 Veddah members scattered in the island, said their chieftain Uruwarige Wanniya.

            He said a letter containing the decisions taken at the meeting and their requests would be handed over to the president.

            Muthubanda, a son of the Veddah chieftain, has told Neth FM that clan members at Hennanigala, Ollebedda, Rathugala, Dambana and Vakarai are unable to even obtain water and other basic needs.

            A lawyer fighting for their rights, Saman Kumara, said there were constant clashes between the Veddah community and the wildlife laws, which have been formulated in complete disregard to the lifestyles of the former.

            He added that losing their habitats and their language were other major problems of the Veddah community.

            Srilankamirror.com

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            J.Muthu

            What is this Mandayan group is all about?

            My Tamil friends translate Mandayan as meaning brainy. Is it true that Suresh headed a group of Tamils who were as brainy as Albert Einstein?

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              Native Veddah,

              Mandayan has nothing to do with brains of the Einstein variety.
              That will be Puththikaran. Suresh P, during his EPRLF days, was suspected to have sent many via the short-cut to eternity. Details of these are with Canadian Intelligence, which is why he is refused Entry there. He is a karachal-karan which is kachal in
              roadside Sinhala.

              Kettikaran

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              Kettikaran

              “Mandayan has nothing to do with brains of the Einstein variety.”

              I am sorry I got the information and translation wrong.

              Is he the one who was in charge of Tamil National Army during IPKF time when forced child conscription was rampant. EPRLF was known as Pillai Pidi Karan.

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    Glad to hear that you are reading another book on Marxism and the Left albeit on the former colonials. Thanks for keeping us updated on your reading of ‘high class books’ But where is the obesiance to lord MR that you always manage to sneak in here and also your paranoia about the tamils?

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    “Sometimes people of all social classes fall victim to indoctrination and begin to lend their support to personalities that best articulate these doctrines. These doctrines usually favor cultural formations such as Religion, Race, Caste and Nation over processes, principles and policies.

    When this happens traditional parties and their leaders are seen as weak and ineffective when compared to the rising “men and women of decisiveness and action” who articulate the emerging doctrine that polarizes the affected population around the interests of cultural constructs such as Religion, Race, Caste and Nationalities.

    When this happens the the implementation of inhuman and violent solutions that are repugnant to the major portion of the human species and yet touted by these charismatic “men and women of decisiveness and action” as the solution to all problems and the path to Religious, Racist, Casteist or Nationalist Utopia begins to occur and these days may activate the right to protect those affected.

    This version from our very own sanatorium log book makes much more sense than Gramscis labored scribblings.

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    “and an ‘organic’ military regime south of Vavuniya cannot be uprooted in its traditional homeland by external force” armed, trained and supplied by China and led by comrade Dr Dayan in full cry in Dr Ernesto Guevara mode I presume!

    Cheeeeeeeerrrrrrrs my red brother go for it you are lucky to have another chance around the corner. Go man go we are rooting for you from the nut house.

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    Still Dayan does not thrash the Mahinda led regime if North Secedes or Military takes out south of the country but blames it on leaderless UNP.

    With Sinhala regime tripping to the Indian CHOGM Rope trick, Spin Master Dayan thinks he has a better chance to serve again in Geneva by waving the 13th Flag again to International Community.

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      CG,

      Be realistic man. 13th plus Flag already granted to North and East. The rest are mere off stage Drama. Where’s Wimale, BBS, Rawaya, Rawana Balaya, Pattle Champa, Gamanpilla and the rest of the Rats gone into hiding.

      Now GOSL has to work on to get the EU GSP back.

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      ela kolla

      Thanks

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        This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our Comment policy.For more detail see our Comment policy
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        • 0
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          CT – piss off

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            ela kolla

            “CT – piss off”

            CT knows when to.

            When do you think you should?

            Please let us know the auspicious time.

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              I guess this Kolla should 100% is former USERNAME – Leela.

              Right at the moment I really dont know what DJ actually wants to achieve. Earlier I read his sentiments on CT and GV. Now, even after the so called president of the country – accused DJ of being caught by powerful NGOs, directly to Aljaseera, the Dayan^s reactions to stay applausing whatever the incumbent clan have been doing is unthinkable to anyone.

              Readers like me ( majority of CT readership) feel Mr Jayathilaka^s credibility is somewhere stuck..:(

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              PunchiManike

              “Readers like me ( majority of CT readership) feel Mr Jayathilaka^s credibility is somewhere stuck..:”

              He never had any, therefore you are right but late to know and acknowledge this obvious trait of this person.

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    Ranil and CBK should strike a deal. CBK leads a forum of the UNP, TNA, JVP and SLMC.

    Sarath Fonseka should be persuaded to join it, but be told clearly that he will not hold the eventual top position. Karu and Sajith likewise, but they will be part of the succession plan. Ven Sobitha Thero should be asked for his support.

    CBK draws disgruntled SLFP-ers to support the common forum, but read them the riot act that this is being done for the good of the country, and NOT with the expectation of ‘pork’ down the road. Full and fair recognition of minority rights to be guaranteed in a new constitution, for which the mandate will be sought during the campaigning.

    CBK campaigns on a platform to dismantle the Executive Presidency, but the deal with Ranil is that he will be appointed Prime Minister in waiting until a full parliamentary system will replace it within a defined time frame (say 2 years). Ranil to agree to step down from the party leadership after two terms.

    There will be plenty of able technocrats, business leaders, academics who can form a body to effect the transition and install the new governing structure.

    Utopian? Perhaps, but there will not be too many opportunities for something like this approach in the future.

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      Won’t it be easier to just nuke President’s residence and greater Colombo?

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        No nuclear weapons possible in Sri Lanka LOL
        Wed 9th Daily News states as follows:

        Radiation free assurance for CHOGM participants

        Sri Lanka assures that not a single head of state that participate in the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM)will be affected by nuclear radiation, said Technology Research and Atomic Energy Minister Patali Champika Ranawaka in Parliament yesterday.

        He said that Sri Lanka is equipped with the latest sophisticated nuclear technology in the world. He said several leaders had been attacked by nuclear radiation to cause cancer in them. He added that the same won’t happen in Sri Lanka and assured all will be provided security from nuclear radiation attacks at the CHOGM.

        He made these observation making the reply speech of the science and Technology Development (Amendment) Act debate.

        – See more at: http://www.dailynews.lk/local/radiation-free-assurance-chogm-participants#sthash.XWnbV0gq.dpuf

        LINK:
        http://www.dailynews.lk/local/radiation-free-assurance-chogm-participants

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          Vladimir Putin even brought his own water to the last G-20 summit in Ireland.

          Cannot be sure what the CW heads will bring for the CHOGM summit.

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        @ Navin
        Hotel de Temple Palace should be declared a ‘No Fire Zone,” …then the entire RajaPassa family of 300+, JHU, BBS, Ravana Balaya, Sinhala Ravaya and sycophants and apple polishers like Douglas, Karuna, Hakeem, Da Yarn, Malinda, Rajpal and all UPFA MPs and UNP dissidents should be herded into this ‘No Fire Zone’ and a couple of Tomahawk missiles fired at it from a US aircraft carrier. That should do the trick.
        ps. Any survivors who try to surender carrying white flags should be shot as well. :-D

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          Do you mean “No Fire Zone” or “No Fear Zone”?

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    Easy for you to tell, living in UK !

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    One cannot be ‘attacked’ by nuclear radiation – one can be exposed to it.
    Who are these leaders who have developed cancer due to nuclear radiation?

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    The strength of the Govt lies in its diversity, where it has accomodated 65 MP’s from the Opposition, Minority parties, extreme Sinhala Buddhist parties, Communist, you name it. All have been given positions and powers under the umbrella of the govt. This effectively neutralises the power base of the opposition and brings in more diverse votes for the Govt.

    On the other hand the opposition is divided into various groups. UNP leader RW is not prepared to accomodate even the people in his own party. He rules through a small group of elite. JVP is just talk and rhetoric and have no real track record to prove they have done anything other than getting students and workers to protest and get shot. DP is still a fledgeling under General Sarath Fonseka with no clear road map.

    MR’s policy is to divide and rule. Unless there is a strong leader from the opposition camp backed by all opposition parties it will not succeed. It seems only CBK may be a possible alternative.

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      CBK would not come back, that she repeatedly made clear.

      I think Sobitha thero would be the only alternative, if people would not stand on Ranil W not giving him an another chance.

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    ..an ‘organic’ military regime south of Vavuniya cannot be uprooted in its traditional homeland by external force

    The IC will not need to “uproot” a hypothetical military regime (Junta) in the south – but they can reform it. The IC will have tremendous leverage: The Junta will have to continue to buy all of its oil using US dollars from the middle east under the careful supervision of the US military. They will also have to continue to service its considerable US dollar denominated debt (IMF loans, loans from China etc. etc.)

    The IC will also have the biggest lever of all: an independent NE! If the Junta does not toe the line, the IC can take a flight directly to Trincomalee and shower them with billions of dollars in investment and military grants!!

    You are also underestimating the grassroots backlash that will be exerted on the Junta by the Sinhalese people due to the perception that they have through their own mistakes made Eelam a reality.

    Bottom line is, reforming a hypothetical military Junta in a post Eelam world will be infinitely easier than reforming the Sri Lankan state as it exists today.

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    The present crisis of the Country stems from the Judgement given by a famous stupid CJ on the famous ‘ Conscience Bill ‘ accepting the rights of an elected member to crossover …this favored the President who was hanging on 1 vote majority in the parliament to buy off or purchase the opposition members for his survival …today there are 67 members of the Opposition in the Govt.. !!! It is through them the 18th ammendment was pushed through…and it is yet not over…because the President does not display Leadership qualities who could develop future Leaders and set the Party in motion and the result is that he will continue to buy members of the Opposition…with that people will polarize around others…

    This grandiose plan Presidet has implemented ensure of a complete destruction of Sri Lanka politically…his grand exit also sure to ensure the death of both SLFP & UNP in the Country….and the possible division…thanks to the stupid CJ ..and Prabhakaran.

    The Military in the Country is young and it is too much for 65,000 sq km..besides heavy on the economy…in 20 years a smart soldier charged by the Sinhala Buddhist fake PATRIOTISM led by Buddhist monks ..takeover is inevitable..

    the Arena or the theatre is being built at present..

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      Moulding Sri Lanka to be the next DPRK…….North Korea.

      When is “Parippu” Manna coming.

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    The circumstances created by MR-the authoritarian do not permit anyone in the Opposition to win elections. 17th. A abolished.Electronic/printed media controlled.Cocteau. resources misused. Monitors concern.But according to EC,free and fair elections held.
    Hence UN intervention is a must.

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    This ia a criais of the Opposition certainly but also of the Government and hence of the State. Why is only the opposition in the headlines here?

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    Dayan( Dr Removed)

    Before I comment on your Article I just want want to ask you a question as you are very well connected to MR.
    Do you know what has happened to Gothabaya. Is he still with us or has he gone another planet. We say in Tamil the he has reached IRAIVAN ADI

    In your nalysis of the British Labour Party Revival you have talked about the Theoreticians but you missed out the Tactician Peter Mandelson. UNP needs someone like Pater Mandelson and I cant think of any one more suited to the job than Wijeyadasa Rajapakshe.

    But I like to address the following and I have a feeling you have taken my advice and re reading for your PhD again as it seems to be bearing some fruit.

    *** The following is a correct version of events and Sri Lanka has passed the point of no return.

    After watching your Master MRs interview with Aljazeera I am convinced that MR is not going to budge and he is not going to devolve power to the North.

    The two basic requirements ( that is the minimum) are Land and Police Powers without which we cannot move forward as a Nation within a Nation.

    The Aljazeera interview has confirmed the following without any doubt.

    “If the latter proves true, for Sri Lanka taken as a whole this means a nightmare scenario of a dual deadlock: a regime that is unable to adapt and survive in the new international environment and a democratic opposition that is unable to do so the same in the post-war national environment.”

    1)The predictable outcome would include a shift to secession in the North.

    2)and from the current quasi-authoritarianism to outright military rule in the South.

    I agree with no 1) but I am not sure of No 2 for the following reason.

    The prospect of military rule in the South is not likely to happen as MR is doing that job efficiently so there is no need for the Army to take over the Army cannot do it any better.

    It is upto the Sinhalese Majority to prevent the following.

    If this dystopian scenario comes about, Northern separatism cannot be prevented by Sri Lankan military force as it would be a Bangladesh-Kosovo process under R2P, and an ‘orga

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