6 August, 2021

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The Fate Of The Rupee: Time To Stop Playing The ‘Blame-Excuse-Blame Games’

By W A Wijewardena –

Dr. W.A Wijewardena

The rupee’s historical tragedy

As I have presented in a previous article titled ‘Rupee’s Sad Destiny of One-way Journey to Depreciation’, it has been a historical tragedy that the rupee has fallen in value ever since the country had gained independence in 1948. At that time, the rupee was exchanged for Rs 3.32 per US dollar. In terms of dollars, a rupee was worth 30 US cents. This was more or less equal to the exchange rate between the US dollar and the Singapore dollar that amounted to 33 US cents. Under the fixed exchange rate system that had been adopted by Sri Lanka till late 1977, this rate was devalued by the government from time to time based in the devalued Sterling Pound rate or the scarcity of foreign exchange reserves locally or both.

Accordingly, by 1977, the rupee/dollar rate had been devalued to Rs 8.41 per dollar or 12 US cents per rupee. When one adds the 65% Foreign Exchange Entitlement Certificate or FEEC rate to the official exchange rate, the rupee was effectively sold at Rs 13.88 per dollar or 7 US cents per rupee. In November 1977, this rate was adjusted to Rs 15.56 per dollar or 6 US cents per rupee before Sri Lanka chose to go for a flexible exchange rate system.

Since then, the rupee continued to fall in the market, eventually reaching a level of Rs 172 per dollar in early October 2018. This was, in dollar terms, equal to about a half of a US cent. Thus, the rupee which was traded for 30 US cents in 1948 has now descended to the status of a worthless currency. Figure 1 presents this one way journey of the rupee, both in rupees to dollar and dollars to rupee terms, during 1950-October 2018.

Singapore’s problem is how to prevent appreciation of currency

The Singapore dollar, which started almost at the same level with Ceylon rupee in 1948, has completed a journey in the opposite direction. Last week, its value was recorded at 73 US cents per Singapore dollar, up from 33 US cents in 1948.

But unlike Sri Lanka, Singapore has been blessed with a continuing increase in productivity, enabling it to allow the SGD to appreciate in the market without losing its global competitive edge. However, its problem has been how to prevent the SGD from appreciating beyond what is permissible by improvements in productivity. Hence, to slow down the appreciation and allow only a ‘modest and gradual’ rise, the country’s Monetary Authority had in April 2018 slightly tightened the band within which the currency is allowed to float in the market. Thus, the post-independence experience with respect to economic performance and achievement of Singapore and Sri Lanka has been a way apart from each other.

Governments’ deficit spending is the root cause

All past governments in Sri Lanka, irrespective of their political complexion, have to take responsibility for the country’s dismal economic performance that has led to the depreciation of the rupee in the market. Of course, Sri Lanka did not stay put where it started in 1948.

There have been achievements, but all of them had been small gains compared to what other successful nations had attained. Sri Lanka’s political leadership, like many other newly independent countries in Asia, Africa and Latin America, had harboured obsessive faith in the Government and Government financing for bringing quick prosperity to the people. Hence, in the whole of the post-independence period, except in 1954 and 1955, the Government was in the wont of spending more than what it earned – a budgetary practice known as deficit financing – by tapping a combination of different funding sources. They constituted borrowing from all sources – domestic private and banking sectors, on one side, and foreigners, on the other – to fill the budget gap. Thus, the country’s budget deficit in some years was as high as 19% of the total output, known as the Gross Domestic Product or GDP, but on average it stood at 7% of GDP, still an unmanageable level. But the average real economic growth that was recorded during the whole of the post-independence period amounted only to 4.4%, pretty much below the required rate of 8% to make Sri Lanka a rich nation within a generation.

According to the World Bank classifications, Sri Lanka was able to move from a poor country to a lower middle income country only in 1997, some 50 years after the independence. It is still continuing as a lower middle income country after 20 years, though it is now on the threshold of moving to the next higher category, an upper middle income country.

All the evidence today shows that it has been snared in what is known as ‘the middle income trap’, a situation in which it is unable to become a rich country soon, due to the absence of modern technology, and compete with its peers due to increased labour costs back at home. What has actually brought in is an undesired outcome. That is, Sri Lanka’s economy has bloated in rupee terms beyond its ability to maintain self-sustenance.

All Ministers of Finance in the past who have contributed to the bloating of the economy through deficit financing are entitled to shout only one desperate call. That is, ‘Honey, I Blew up the Kid’ like Wayne Szalinski in Randal Kleiser’s movie, by the same title. Szalinski’s work, leading to the creation of a monster out of an innocent kid in the movie, was not intentional but accidental. Similarly, the creation of a monster economy with a voracious appetite for filling a bloated belly by Ministers of Finance was also not intentional but consequential.

Getting into a blame game

The ex-Governor of the Central Bank, Ajith Nivard Cabraal, in an article titled ‘Govt, CB have abdicated the vital statutory duty by not being able to deal with rupee depreciation had presented a statistical table with data from 1977 to the latest with Central Bank intervention in the market to prevent depreciation of the rupee.

Despite this, the rupee has depreciated from Rs 8.83 per dollar in late 1976 to Rs 171 per dollar at end September 2018. In fact, as I have presented above, the rupee depreciation began much earlier, from the date on which Sri Lanka gained independence in 1948. His point has been that in the period from 2006 to 2014 during which he had been the Governor, the rupee depreciated by about Rs 29 per dollar or 3% on average a year with only sales from the Central Bank reserves amounting only to $ 2.3 billion on a net basis. Though in 2011-2, CB had sold $ 4 billion to protect the rupee, the net sales during that period have been reduced to $ 2.3 billion because of a mega net purchase of $ 2.3 billion in 2009, basically from the inflows to the government securities market after that market was open to foreigners. His point was that after he left the Bank in the period from 2015 to end September 2018, the Bank has sold in the market on a net basis $ 2.5 billion but the rupee had depreciated by Rs 40 per dollar or by 9% per annum on average. This net sale is made up of a mega sale done by the Central Bank in the period prior to the General Elections in August 2015, amounting to $ 3.4 billion, and a further sale of $ 1.9 billion in 2016. But just like Cabraal’s time, the present management of the Central Bank too has purchased from the market on a net basis $ 1.7 billion in 2017, augmenting the reserves.

Continuation of the blame game

Now, this is playing a blame game that, during his time, both the depreciation of the rupee and the net sale from the foreign exchange reserves were lower than the period since he had left the Central Bank. But still, the rupee depreciated and reserves were lost. However, the Central Bank, in a defensive mood, had replied to Cabraal, pointing out that the Bank had in the past done its best to stabilise the currency, given the constraints of unfavourable forces working against both the rupee and Bank’s attempt at providing stability to the exchange rate. Its main argument has been that in the current period, it cannot and should not repeat the mega interventions done in the past, namely, in 2011/12 and 2015, in view of the overwhelming debt repayment obligations which have fallen on the country due to its liberal past external borrowings. According to the Ministry of Finance, these obligations are too critical to be ignored, especially in 2019 and 2020. This has led to the continuation of the blame game, and Cabraal has in a later intervention has questioned the Central Bank’s wisdom of stabilising the rupee, whether it would fall to Rs 200 or Rs 250 or Rs 300. These blame-excuse-blame games will not help the rupee or the economy and, therefore, should be stopped in order to find a permanent solution to rupee’s sad one way journey to depreciation, as I have argued in my previous article.

Permanent solution is the Government’s responsibility

A Central Bank can do very little to stabilise a currency, if the economy outside the bank is not supportive to its action. The currency depreciation is only a symptom of a graver malaise and not the root cause. Hence, a Central Bank could keep a currency at a stable level for a short period through its monetary, foreign exchange, and market intervention policies. Once a currency is stabilised at a certain level, it is up to the government in power to take long term permanent action to bring in a lasting stability. This was exactly what Singapore did, by increasing productivity through the introduction of new technology and promoting competitiveness at all levels in the economy.

Financial war fought by the Central Bank

Every Central Bank Governor is working under this constraint, and can only advise the political leadership what it should do. As the proverb says, he can take the horse to the water but he cannot make it drink it. In the severe foreign exchange crisis which the country faced during 2007 to 2009, when the country was at the height of the war with LTTE, there was a separate financial war fought by the Central Bank along with the war fought by soldiers in the battlefront. Sri Lanka lacked weapons, and China, its main weapon supplier, extended only 3 months’ credit to the country. The Bank of Ceylon had to honour the letters of credit on the due dates, and the Central Bank had to provide it with dollars. The country had to save its foreign exchange to meet this commitment on a priority basis, just like the present Governor, Indrajit Coomaraswamy, has to save the scarce foreign reserves for meeting debt repayment obligations.

Governor Cabraal’s creditable work

Cabraal should be given credit for managing that situation effectively, thereby facilitating a continuous flow of weapons to the country for soldiers in the field to move the war to a finish. I recall how he went around the world in 2007, canvassing for investments by foreign investors when the first sovereign bond issue of just $ 500 million was offered by the Government. That was peanuts in today’s context, but it was done against a very powerful force both within and outside the country. But that was not sufficient and foreign exchange requirements were alarmingly high. He dispatched himself to Libya to seek support from Mohammed Gaddafi, supposed to be a friend of President Mahinda Rajapaksa. But he returned empty-handed.

Then, he sent teams of senior Central Bank officers to major groups of countries to solicit support of the Sri Lankan diaspora, who were thought to be in readiness to give Sri Lanka much-needed dollars. I led the team to Australia and New Zealand, met Sri Lankans living in Melbourne, Sydney, Canberra and Wellington, and solicited support from them. They were sympathetic but demanded the pound of flesh from the Government in the form of a waiver of the fees charged for dual citizenships, admission to superior schools, and duty free vehicles for their relatives back at home. It was, thus, a failure.

Devoid of a source, Cabraal turned to IMF, which was sitting on the request due to the pressure from those who were sympathetic to the LTTE. The tables were turned only after the Indian Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee came forward, and issued a bold statement that if IMF did not approve of the loan sought by Sri Lanka, India would make available the needed funds to that country in need. Hence, it is not cricket for Cabraal to get into a blame game now, and find fault with the present management of the Central Bank.

Unreasonable past Governors

Central Bank Governors in the past have been unreasonable at times, but when sense was put to them, they came forward to support and protect that institution.

In 1996, immediately after the horrendous bomb blast in front of the Bank building, the late H N S Karunatilake began a blame game in public that the then-Governor A S Jayawardena had failed to protect the bank against a possible LTTE attack. In fact, he very correctly gave credit to himself that the Bank was saved from total destruction by the iron barrier he had constructed at the entrance, popularly nicknamed Karunatilake Barrier. When the late A S Jayawardena came on TV and said that at that instance of a national tragedy, all other Central Banks and previous Governors had come to the Bank’s support, Karunatilake did not mutter it again.

Then, after Cabraal became Governor in 2006, Karunatilake once again went into the blame game, criticising him even personally. That was put to a stop when Cabraal used his superior public relation skills to invite all previous Governors to a luncheon meeting at the Bank, and explained the true situation facing the country at that time.

High GDP and low exports are the cause of depreciation

Cabraal has another reason to support the present management of the Central Bank. That is because the gravity of the rupee problem is rooted to the period from 2006 to 2014, when Sri Lanka had bloated its economy in rupee terms, and paid scanty attention to promoting exports or eliminating the deficit in the current account. As shown in Graph 2, after 2006, GDP has grown phenomenally but exports have remained stagnant.

This was due to the bloating of GDP in rupee terms and keeping the rupee/dollar rate overvalued to present a high growth in that number. This is shown by Graph 3, in which the exports as a percentage of GDP has started falling since around 2002, while the current account deficit has remained more or less at the same level.

Hence, what the present Central Bank management is reaping today is what Sri Lanka had sown in the past. This is, therefore, a time for all those who have an interest in the economy to get together and find a lasting solution to its ailments, without hurling accusations at each other.

Need is painful shrinking of spending by all

The solution involves getting the Government and the people to shrink their top spending on a priority basis. No country can think of stabilising its currency if it continues with a high deficit in the current account unabatedly. Perhaps, it is better if all the parties in the present blame game get together and shout, as in a previous Szalinski movie, ‘Honey, I have shrunk the kids’. It is painful but something that must necessarily be done.

W A Wijewardena, a former Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, can be reached at waw1949@gmail.com

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Latest comments

  • 5
    0

    well said wije
    after all what does a chartered accountant know about macroeconomics
    crossed over from the unp to join the rajapaksas and got a post he was not qualified for

    • 3
      1

      Dr. Wije, thanks but fact is that Blame must be allocated and ALL those responsible for the crisis identified and held accountable, in order to end the Culture of Impunity and Immunity for Financial Crime and looting public wealth bu politicians and their cronies.

      The current UNP regime that promised good governance, accelerated the crash of the rupee with corrupt Ravi K’s duty free SUV bribes and the import of massive numbers of luxury cars for his fellow politicians. This was to bribe the politicians to turn a blind eye to the Bondscam and his luxury apt at Monarch and and Ranil, Malik and Arjuna Mahendran carried out at Central Bank. Bondscam Ranil. Mahendan, Mahinda Jarapassa and Nivard cabraal all should share a prison cell at Welikada.

      Also “Growth Fetishism” which is in the DNA of neo-liberal economics is the cause of the over consumption and Lanka’s SUV car fetish that politicians have n particular.
      Please see Sen and Stiglitz critic of Growth and the rise of inequality.

      • 0
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        Quite right. The culture of immunity and impunity for Financial Crimes and corruptions by politicians and their business cronies must end for Sri Lanka to progress, for NON-RECURRENCE.
        This will only happen when those who are responsible for ALL the Bondscams and insider trading are held accountable and jailed.

  • 2
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    Dr. Wijewardena,

    Whilst I am not concerned of your economics jargon, one thing stands clear above all facts: i.e. Sri Lanka has a massive trade deficit which drives the demand for US Dollars thus making it more expensive to buy. That in my view is a fundamental economic principle that underlines the theory of demand and supply.
    This theory is re-confirmed by the coalition government’s decision to enforce restrictions of the outflow of USD and other hard currencies with a gazette US Dollar release ban on several Categories of Imports ( with specific HS Codes) .

    What the government implies with all these actions is that they are short of US Dollars in meeting the import demands.

    As a Layman to macro-economics, yet reading through the lines, I see two solutions to the Economic Fiasco we face as a country @ present.

    Take a Socialist approach and limit only the essential imports into the country;
    1. This in essence with lead to Sri Lanka being a part of the socialist regime of the 1970’s with long queues and people fighting for luxury living accessories.
    2. Go on a borrowing spree and let the next generation ( of politicians and the general public) resolve their issues in time to come.

    As I see it, the co-cohabitant government has opted for the 2nd option.

    Thus, my question is : Are we passing down own debts to our children, or do we have the balls to take ownership of what the successive governments have done to us and take shipowner of our own mistakes, and live through them?

  • 1
    1

    As a saivar mangal girl, I wish to point out as I see the Rani & The Yahapalanaya is on a mission to destroy the Sri Lanka economy at the behest of the West………
    The Rupee will tumble beyond Rs. 200+ = USD.
    Country will have no money and will be forced to sell valuable assets…

    That will be the day the Imperialist will move in to offer santhosam for the lease of Trinco Harbour.
    Untill that happens the economy will perish upto a point of no return. Harvard strategy. With that will go the oil tank farm.
    In Djibouti USA/EU and Chinese have established bases on a lease on an agreed annual sum. But SL will be throttle in one go.
    Rani & UNP backed by TNA and USA agents JVP will here for the long haul.

    Who are the biggest lenders to Sri Lanka??????????
    1) IMF………… Who are behind the IMF… you know it.
    2) ADB… Whose money behind the ADB ? America’s proxy, JAPAN.
    3) The Chinese.
    Who is going to throttle Sri Lanka? It will be the Countries behind IMF & Japan.

    Its a pathetic state of political affairs in Sri Lanka.

  • 3
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    Dr. W.A Wijewardena,

    So what you are saying that present governor of CBSL is just another a typical accountant who is okay to balance the sheets – nothing much. Is that right?

  • 1
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    Depreciation of currencies relative to a dominant currency, which itself depreciates, has become engrained in the world economic order.
    This results in rich nations getting richer and the poor getting poorer. Inside nations the same applies although few nouveau riche are added. Extreme example is Zimbabwe closely followed by Nigeria. In both countries, corruption is taken for granted.
    .
    In SL, the culture of corruption/nepotism/impunity has become part of governance and the laypersons know that this contributes to our problem. Dr W A Wijewardena for some reasons does not find this sufficiently ‘academic’.
    .
    The Dominant currency used to be GBP, then came US$.
    Will CNY (Chinese Yuan) be next? What after that? War?

  • 4
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    Among other writing, it is a useless piece from Dr. W.A Wijewardena. Blame-game is something built into Sri Lankan genes, one can see this from lavatory cleaners to country’s presidents, no one can stop that. Focusing on how we can find a permanent solution would be more productive.

    Dr. W.A Wijewardena was being Deputy Governor of the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, I would have expected to discuss more on why and where we failed to achieve exporting our goods – It is lack of Quality and quality thinking, corruption that brought down the name we had in tea production and other areas, lack of innovative thinking in technology, govt not opening the doors to those struggling entrepreneurs, our school system targeted to create 8 to 5 mindsets, lethargy, huge state-sector that is counter-productive.

    It is bad to put it this way, but the truth be told, thanks to Indian policy not sending maids, so we are in the maid business with Middle-east.

    • 2
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      Main reason for lack of growth of exports is because most western nations have trade restrictions preventing poor nations from entering into their markets, UNLESS the poor nations allow the rich nationals companies to set up shop in the poor country and exploit the people. Countries with a large domestic economy (india, china) did not suffer from this disadvantage.

      • 0
        0

        Could you explain Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Vietnam…… Does Singapore import more and export less? Or does it has US, EU’s GSP +

  • 2
    0

    Progress is impossible without change, and those who cannot change their minds cannot change anything – Bernard Shaw

  • 0
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    While Praising AJITH NIVARRD CABRAAL SUPERFICALLY. you have pointed out how he covered up the screwing up of Sri lanka by the Mahinda Rajapakse govt. Even though either Maithripala sirisena, Ranil or present Finance Ministe rMangala Samraweera do not expose it, because they are all are the profitting from bond scam, they are enemies with Mahinda Rajapakse politically, but, they are friends when they meet inside a Wedding party or the counpounds of the parliament. Graph TWO shows very well how they fooled donkeys inside the parliament who do not know anything. Some where it shows since 1980 or even before, they had been used to the money printing job and relasing it. that may be the reason, Politicians have taken sri lankan notes all over the world – ARgenticina, Germany, Nye York, M

  • 0
    0

    Just think, in order to develp a village, suburben area, why do we nee, all Green, all blue, all Red, all Pohottuwa colours. Now,that Rs 400 million is a wastage. Besides why do we need political authrority in every govt institution. I think thst is only Blue, Green or Red. Simply as you say it is politicians who are responmsible. PB thennekon, Ajith Nivard cabraal are all those who supported those theives, con artists and fraudsters. Mahinda Rajapakse , a LAWYER came from colombo LAw college which was established for dumb children of the elite. Maithripala sirisena should have passed maximum grade nine and if he has Kundasale Agricultural college which is another for to be traiend Plantation supirintendents of the elite. What do they know about the devloping a country. See Bangladesh was behind us. Now, even that is in front of us. these people always blame the previous govt and now the previous govt comes again. I remember 20o5, 2010, Ranil and CBK bashing was the prominent and they came and did it again.

  • 2
    0

    The statistical evidence shows clearly the value of currency in relation to US$ continued to decline since 1948 and we show the Sigapore currency moved in opposite direction. Singapore became a rich country our country became poor. Singapore has multiple ethnicities, multiple languages, multiple religions but the country was stable throughout its life after independence whereas in Srilanka you don’t find any stable period since 1948. Stability invites productive investments and every one contributes to national economy but in Srilanka language and religios policys destroyed stability, continued destruction of economy, complete destruction of law and order every leader become richer and richer and now one family become the richest but the poor become more poor. Srilanka compete to select there leadership from between two monsters who can destroy us further and further. There is no choice!

  • 1
    1

    `Mohomad is right. A deouty governor can be a Whistel blower. Instead he is praising his former boss who was corrupt to the nose. I think Ajith Nivarrdcabral is targeting for the Finance minister position under the new VIYATH govt. You may be me asked for ther CB governor again. Sri lankan politicias are simply lowest of the lowest Scum. They live on the country and poor. VOYATHUN are not far away from them. It is the same thing that TRUMP is doing. Omce he wons in 2020, Americans, now there is a salughter once a Day and everyday. It will increase, because the last president also screwed up us. that is Capitalism. Ranil – Right wing, Ultra liberal, Pro-western PM who promtoed Sell everything overseas, earn something now says, most recently, we have increase exports. what an idiot. Every capitalist country live on, kill when they can not sell their exports in the othr counmtry.

  • 1
    1

    There may be a number of complicated factors related to import export but in my opinion the MAIN reason for continous depreciation is PRINTING money out of proportion to the real GDP. And the hardest hit are the rupee SAVINGS – just imagine the plight of retirees who depend on their fixed deposits and money saved for children’s education.
    Can Mr Wijewardana or someone attached to Central Bank give us figures related to money printing during Rajapaksa and Yahapalana periods?

    Soma

  • 1
    0

    So in the end Ajith Nivard stressed the monetary policy to stretch the 3 month LCs to conduct the war? Certainly a magnificent job from a patriotic, smart, selfish-less Central Bank Governor, an adorable philanthropist, never said no his boss. But, may we know what in return he and his boss gave to the brave India which, while it was waiting for its loan ($4.5B) from IMF, promised a loan to Ajith Nivard? Later (2012) Manmohan Singh said “If we tell Sri Lanka is not listing; what can we do for that?” In 2013, when Manmohan Singh was returning from UNGA meeting, refused to talk with Old King. It was Really, Really brave of India and faithfulness of Nivard and his boss. But, now China owning the Hangbangtota!

  • 0
    0

    Dr. W.A Wijewardena,

    Have a second look at your own graphs – this itself is a good sample and evidence why SL cannot export its products to the markets outside SL:

    Information is correct (as we presume), but there is no quality, a power to attract anyone read it, or look way too outdated that definitely will make sure to keep a youngster miles away from the entire writing.

    Our education system is outdated, so our thoughts are outdated and we can’t stand competitive among others in a world that moves at a pace we can’t imagine. Then how do we make sure our products sell in a country outside SL?

    Work for others is the easiest one can do, and most of us are trained to do that – That will not help us increase our exports.

    NB: I am a regular reader of your very useful writings and enjoy them. Used those graphs to elaborate my point only.

  • 1
    0

    Long homilies and elevant articles by men of learning – quoting facts. figures and data – are no more necessary. Dr. Wijewardena says it all – loud and clear – to use his own words “the Rupee has now descended to the status of a worthless currency”
    Did’nt we know it, dear fellow citizens? The bad news is – the worst is yet to come.
    Get ready to blame India and the local Tamils – piduru and punnakku eating yakkos!!!

    ADJP

  • 0
    0

    The problem is beyond the exchange rate. The problem is beyond froth rate, The problem is beyond exports. The problem is beyond the economic down fall. The Problem is how Appe Aanduwa is going to liberate the country from the grip of the Sinhala Intellectuals and guide it on a recovery path. Dr. Wijewardena may praise Ajith Nivard as a war hero, created credit to crush Tamils and kill 150,000 to earn War Crime Conviction. But a real politician (one like Lee) would kick on buttock of Ajith Nivard and chase him out of political matters and would run the government. Recently there a question asked from Imbecile Modaya the Old King how he would deal with the Rs depreciation. (In fact that was not the real question, but that is what he tried answer). Chandrika put that situation, later, like this: “He looked left, he looked right, He looked back but he did not answer, because he does not know the answer”. Let’s see where Chandrika slipped in this. She was all right in what she said but she did not include Ajith Nivard’s name when she said “He doesn’t know the answer” . Because sadly it was the 7 Years CB governor’s answer Old King conveyed the reporters as “WE will do it when we come to power”. Noticeable Old King did not use the word “I”, but used “we” to include Ajith Nivard. Ajith Nivard was such an idiot for passing an answer to Old King. He could have taken over the question and beat down the reporters with some technical complication. It was not just Old Kings Pants were down on that stage, but there Ajith Nivard too was standing naked.

  • 0
    0

    Here is how Ajith Nivard magnificent job of converting 3 months LCs into detriments which ended selling the Colombo Pong Cing and Hangbangtota to China.
    “ A thief was chased by police. Desperate to escape, he caught an innocent victim and put his on that fellow’s head. Police backed off on that precarious condition. He dragged the victim to jungle path, when could not further, shot him and ran into the jungle. Police caught him eventually got him capital punishment for his murder. “ There was a thousand ways to deal with theft he did, but he sought Ajith Nivard path and now have brought his boss accusation of war crime. If he had accepted the responsibility for his theft, then his punishment would have been small. Ajith Nivard followed path said in a Tamil wise words “Let me have a face inauspicious to my enemy, even if I lose my nose permanently” and cutting ones’ nose. If Ajith Nivard had explained to Old King that he can’t fight a war with 3 months LCs and Central Bank Monetary policies but Old King has to do it through his budgetary measures, the Colombo Pong Cing, Hangbangtota Harbor and War Crime might have been saved. Now Ajith Nivard is standing tall as a war hero who did a magnificent job in the war, but not a good CB governor. Country’s future is up in the sky. It has no China, It has no India, It has no Russia, It has no West; it has nobody; no friend to give it a hand to come out of it quagmire

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