23 January, 2018

Blog

The Morning After Uva: Govt And Opposition At The Crossroads

By Dayan Jayatilleka  –

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

Perhaps the fundamental thing about the Uva result is that it demonstrates that the fundamentally democratic system –most importantly the electoral mechanism and the Commission of Elections– is working, notwithstanding the incidents of coercive electioneering.

The Uva election achieved certain things but not others. The Americans, as always, have a phrase for it: “close but no cigar”, which means good work, but not quite good enough to win the prize of victory. That is true of the Opposition’s creditable performance, which however fell short of victory.  Any government anywhere in the world would be grimly satisfied with the narrow win it achieved despite twenty years of incumbency.

Thanks to two or three young politicians—Harin Fernando, Sajith Premadasa and arguably Anura Kumara Dissanayakeand the self-inflicted wounds of the power-bloc, the hegemony of the regime is diminished, the country’s two party system restored, the UNP back in contention as a respectable Opposition, and most importantly the political marketplace restored to competitiveness.

What happened in Uva is not what happened in the North, but was a weak approximation, in that the principle is the same. In the North, the postwar model of regime hegemony was de-legitimized by massive voter rejection.  In Uva it was obviously not rejected, but it was certainly called into question, permitting the “model” a narrow victory.

Both Government and opposition have arrived at a crossroads. Quo vadis?  The choices for President Rajapaksa fall into two categories. Firstly, timing; secondly, composition and profile. The issue of timing is pretty much resolved. If he delays beyond the first quarter of next year, the impending blow in Geneva in March and the perception of economic adversity can only impact negatively on his vote. Furthermore, he has to strive to repair the damage caused by Uva and therefore cannot be seen to back away from an election. Time is not on his side, at the moment. What this means is that he will have to hold the election before March. As for the parliamentary election, he will have to follow through with one, because a long gap between even a successful Presidential and a parliamentary election could mean a loss at the latter which would in turn weaken him even if he has won a third term.

If he is advised to go for a referendum after winning his re-election –– he will be in far worse trouble than JRJ was after he pulled the same stunt. Given international and even regional pressure, the eventual landing and exit will be a very hard one, rather than a soft one.

This means that Presidential and parliamentary elections are likely to be held sooner rather than later. The question is what changes, if any, President Rajapaksa will make or will be allowed by his ‘Establishment’ to make, in time for these crucial elections. Mahinda Rajapkasa must surely recognize that with triple defeats in Geneva, the crushing rejection in the North and a narrow win in Uva, his (postwar) Establishment/power elite and its strategy have let him down in his second term.

The choice before him is whether or not to re-profile so as to present a smaller target. As happened to Madam Bandaranaike, the more family members in positions of power and wealth, the bigger a target the President presents; or to switch the metaphor, the more burdened, dragged down, he finds himself. What may have been a factor of psychological security—surrounding himself with family or allowing it to surround him—has now become the prime source of social disapproval, intra-regime resentment and politico-electoral vulnerability. With an international encirclement tightening, it can prove to be tragic.

The President must surely know that the Uva result would have had an impact on the collective psyche of the SLFP, especially at cabinet and parliamentary levels. It would increase the chances of defection from the SLFP to the main Opposition, with Chandrika playing a crucial role as behind the scenes spoiler.

Thus Mahinda Rajapaksa now has to decide whether he will appoint an active SLFP senior as Prime Minister and thereby go into the election with the entire SLFP re-mobilized behind him or whether he will refrain from such a re-composition, and risk an election campaign which presents a status quoist profile, just after – and even though– Uva has signaled public disaffection with precisely that status quo and its discourse.

The UNP has an even more important decision to make. It may not realize that the Uva dynamics will not prevail in quite that manner at a Presidential election. The latter is a duel, and in a choice between Mahinda and Ranil, the citizens’ choice is very likely to be Mahinda. True, the UNP strategists are counting on the minority vote but the minorities did vote in Uva and it just wasn’t good enough to pull off a win.

If Mahinda wins the Presidential election—which is likely, and may I say, would not be undeserved– the parliamentary election may see a domino effect, which, combined with the regime’s ‘rough trade’, would restore political dominance. If however, the UNP is able to give Mahinda a run for his money at the presidential election, the parliamentary election would be up for grabs even if he wins.

What must never be forgotten is that the UPFA won, not lost in Uva, while the UNP lost, not won. To add to that, nationally Ranil is perhaps less popular and therefore a weaker frontrunner than Harin was in Uva, while Mahinda is perhaps more popular and doubtless a stronger candidate than Shashindra was in that province.

My reading is that party unity was and is enough for the UNP to restore its health as the main opposition—to reverse the drastic drop in its fortunes– but it is not enough for it to win or even make it a really close and bruising battle at the Presidential level. The real crisis of the UNP is not disunity but its electorally and socially weak leadership/candidacy and a Presidential election is all about the candidate.

The UNP has therefore to decide whether the risk of sticking with Ranil is worth it. The decisive question facing the UNP is, does it bet on Ranil and get only 35%-40%, if that, or does it go for Sajith or Karu and get 45%?

Perhaps CBK and SLFP dissenters, the JVP and Gen Fonseka should make the UNP’s choice of candidate, rather than the silly issue of abolishing the Presidency, the conditio sine qua non of the widest opposition convergence. What is really at stake in the presidential election is not the outcome of that election (which Mahinda will very probably win), but the outcome of the parliamentary election, the dominance that comes with a two thirds majority, and the democratizing effect of an equilibrium restored which holds out the prospect of co-habitation and national consensus.

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Latest comments

  • 9
    2

    “The Uva election achieved certain things but not others. The Americans, as always, have a phrase for it: “close but no cigar”, which means good work, but not quite good enough to win the prize of victory. That is true of the Opposition’s creditable performance, which however fell short of victory. Any government anywhere in the world would be grimly satisfied with the narrow win it achieved despite twenty years of incumbency.”

    This mentally regarded so called political analyst had been hiding behind the bush all these days and now he comes to the lecture table to pontificate us after the results are out! DJ reminds me of the fox who said grape is sour, but conversely!

    • 10
      1

      This Kanu kata waited until UNP, JVP and DP lost the election to switch on his regular mode which is to go on support MR regime.
      All these past few weeks, we though did not hear a single word added by the man. So called self proclaimed political analyst, lanken political venteran to see other way around than the realities is just pathetic. Now again trying to be belonged to active bunch that could save MR from being further isolated in internationalstage. Anyway, those who know it clearly, MR would never appoint the most sutiable candidates with records of expereience to represent his adminsitration; simply the man has no vision and wisdom comparably any predecessors governed this nation sofar. Even Premadasa though ended up in thatway, he was much better in many areas than MR with his currenty day politics.
      Anyway, I am glad that UNPers have come forward to a manner that many of their supporters be happy – in the current pv election. Had the campaign been free and fair, UNP would have achieved their ultimate goal for sure.

    • 0
      1

      someone

      “The Morning After Uva: Govt And Opposition At The Crossroads”

      The Govt., headed by the Raja-Paka Family is on the slippery slope.

      The people are fed up with the UPFA riminals and bribe takers.The Results show. Looks like an education need to be done to let the voters who have not heard, the message- Raja-Pakas are criminals and bribe takers.

      UPFA voters at Monaragala reject Rajapaksa family

      http://www.lankatruth.com/home/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7637:upfa-voters-at-monaragala-reject-rajapaksa-family&catid=36:top-stories&Itemid=124

      44231 who were among those who voted for the UPFA at the Uva PC election have voted against the Rajapaksa family rule. At the PC election in 2009 out of the 159,837 votes polled by the UPFA Sasheendra Rajapaksa received 136,697 preference votes. It was 81% of the number of votes UPFA polled.

      This time UPFA polled 140,850 votes from Monaragala District and the number of preference votes Mr. Rajapaksa polled was only 96,619. 44,231 voters for the UPFA have refrained from casting their preference vote to Mr. Sasheendra Rajapaksa. Compared to 2009, 18,987 people have refrained from voting the UPFA this time.

  • 8
    0

    This is one hell of an election results analysis!

    What is this guy trying to say, any one? It is neither here nor there, other than his advice that the UNP should ditch Ranil. Who in Sri Lanka doesn’t know that?

    The type of thinking this man has showed here may be the reason why he would be langushing outside the margins of Sri Lankan politics for ever.

    • 9
      1

      But DJ believes that he is still the man to analyse lanken current day politics. All what he intends is becoming clear which is paving the way Premadasa junior to be the leader of UNP. That is it. Premadasasa will work with DJ appointing him for a higher position as had been during senior cruel days. Anyways, this time, I have no doubt, DJ would not be found NOT only pants down, even being physically harmed by increasing numbers of anti Rajapakshe supporters in current day srilanka.

      • 4
        0

        Some read it laters, while some even dont get it.
        That is what goes through the self made persons’s head these days.
        Now I realize why he is not Dayan Silva – Late Mervin De Silva is unique to his talents, none of them are seen in DJs. DJs s become bone licking -charctor to this day. Only person I think can be comparable to DJ s life is Azwer – most disgusting parliamentarian in today s regime.

        • 1
          0

          Sinchuappu Bandara,

          Good innovation! Hereafter let us call him Dayan Azwer. That filthy-mouthed Azwar us a impeccable fit for this bankrupt mantle DJ. When both of them open up their culvert mouths only filth and muck come out, nothing important.

          • 1
            0

            You are dead right we the sinahalayas have lost somewhere. that is what becoming clearer to me.

        • 3
          0

          “Sinchuappu Bandara”

          There are more in this category.

          Cheep Justice – Most disgusting CJ in the History

          Chairman of Bribery and Corruption commission. – Most bias and Disgusting Chairman.

          IGP – Most Disgusting IGP in the history of Police Dept.

          Police and Army Spokespersons -Most Disgusting spokespersons.

          Galagoda Gandasara – Most disgusting saffron Robed Thug.

          List is very long….

          • 1
            0

            Lapatiya,

            let me add couple of names to that long list ,

            The most corrupt Prime minister
            The most Biased Attorney-General

  • 6
    2

    The slick trojan horse at it again….

  • 11
    2

    The tide has turned and the worm is turning with it. The UVA is the beginning of a long needed end. The UPFA win is aneamic, considering the resources pored in and rowdyness deployed. The government wants to legitimize electoral malpractices in time for the next round of national elections. It is a loaded dice against which the opposition played and it is to be loaded further, next time around. Further, there is no magic in MR now. He is tarnished goods. He has no tricks up his sleeves to deploy now.

    MR has also missed the bus as his predecessors did. Sad but true.

    Dr.Rajasingham Narendran

    • 1
      7

      Don’t be so sure, he has one more trick up his sleeves. Copy demagogic tactics played by wigge and co in NP elections.

      • 4
        0

        I have a better opinion of the Sinhala people. What were the demographic tactics C.V.Wigneswaran used? He won in an overwheelmingly Tamil electorate with a multitude of grievances. MR almost lost the UVA because of the grievances that are acutely felt by all peoples of Sri Lanka.

        Dr.RN

  • 8
    1

    “What must never be forgotten is that the UPFA won, not lost in Uva, while the UNP lost, not won. To add to that, nationally Ranil is perhaps less popular and therefore a weaker frontrunner than Harin was in Uva, while Mahinda is perhaps more popular and doubtless a stronger candidate than Shashindra was in that province.

    My reading is that party unity was and is enough for the UNP to restore its health as the main opposition—to reverse the drastic drop in its fortunes– but it is not enough for it to win or even make it a really close and bruising battle at the Presidential level. The real crisis of the UNP is not disunity but its electorally and socially weak leadership/candidacy and a Presidential election is all about the candidate.

    The UNP has therefore to decide whether the risk of sticking with Ranil is worth it. The decisive question facing the UNP is, does it bet on Ranil and get only 35%-40%, if that, or does it go for Sajith or Karu and get 45%?”

    Anybody could guess what this DJ bugger was given by MARA to write this perversion and the masterpiece of lunacy?

  • 2
    7

    The only winnable PC for the UNP besides NPC was the UVA due to its large Tamil population.

    But Ranil Wickremasinghe couldn’t get a majority even in Badulla.

    Dr Dayan is right on the money about the outcome of the Prez election..

    Ms Pillai’s Resolution against the inhabitants coupled with the new ITAK Chief Senathiraj’s 15 will increase the voter support for the President,as well as well as the Parliamentarians who want to support Rajapaksa.

    LTTE proxy TNA Heavy Premachandran has declared that the Resolution and the Action plan to rejoin the East and the North will start early in the New Year.

    Can the the peace loving inhabitant population trust the UNP leader Ranil, and his cohorts Mangala , Ravi, Tissa and Kiriella to stop the implementation of the LTTE agenda of the TNA and its 15 Resolutions?.

    • 5
      2

      K.A Sumanasekera

      Does the constitution provides for the ruling party to hold elections one after another until it gets more than 65% of the total votes caste? If not the clan must seriously consider amending the constitution.

      By the way amending the constitution is not a problem.

    • 0
      0

      Where were the Tamils in the last PC elections in the Uva? Have they been settled recently in Badulla?

      Dr.RN

  • 5
    2

    “Thanks to two or three young politicians—Harin Fernando, Sajith Premadasa and arguably Anura Kumara Dissanayake”

    Yes, this time Dr. DJ is correct. Not only Dr. DJ, entire nation should thank the Sajith Premadasa for his non participation in Uva Election Campaign as UNP Vote base increased significantly without him.

    • 0
      0

      Lapatiya , You are right. Sajith is a big write off. Empty headed fellow.

  • 2
    0

    I think very soon people will have to repeat what they did to at Gen. Denzil Kobbakaduwa’s funeral in 1992 at Borella kanatta

  • 5
    1

    Before the election Dayan challenged (thinking that they could not) the UNP to get HALF of the UPFA vote, they did !!

    Where has he been hiding all this time be the way?

    • 5
      1

      Dev

      Do you take this Dr Jekyll and Hide seriously?

      • 1
        2

        Native Veddha, Why have you not heard about his twin Prof G.L.P

        • 4
          0

          Ebola da Silva

          “Native Veddha, Why have you not heard about his twin Prof G.L.P”

          Nor have I heard about Rajiva.

          Are they both still around?

          • 1
            1

            NV, Ebola da Silva,

            They are tuning up Ms Thamara Kunanayagam for another cession in the back yard! Leela Nangi is very jealous about it!

  • 3
    1

    Purely for Dayan from Tisaranee Gunasekara right here on CT.

    By deciding to give up his parliamentary seat and contest Uva, Harin Fernando filled this important gap. Mr. Fernando did what Sajith Premadasa should have done in Southern Province, Ravi Karunanayake or Harsha de Silva should have done in Western Province and Dayasiri Jayasekera should have done in North-Western Province – should have done but did not. Whatever happens in the future, Mr. Fernando deserves praise for his courageous decision which obviously gave the UNP a much needed boost in the arm. (Incidentally, the UNP’s remarkable performance was not due to the supposed Sajith Factor, Sajith Premadasa appeared only in a handful of election rallies and reportedly spent the crucial final week not in Uva but in Hambantota.)

  • 1
    2

    UNP lost.

    That is the reality. Lets not sugarcoat it.

    Overall UNP got 10% less than UPFA.

    UNP has no business with JVP subversives.

    • 3
      1

      UNP is the single party.

      UPFA is the coalition.

      So if you feel that UNP lost, you should be deaf and blind even uneducated to intrepret in that way.

      Slfp fraction in UPFA is the key to it. The current results reflect that UPFA will not be able to fool the nation any longer. If it is the fact that the ballige putha (Rajapakshe)would want to get reelected in next presidential eleciton, that would ONLY be a dream. Common candiate of UNP, jvp, DP and CBK fraction of UPFA will definitely defeat balligeputha – in the next P election

      • 0
        0

        Indeed Siribiris, even in the coalition, it is the UNP faction that held all the keys and the portfolios.

        Either bought over or threatened into crossing over.

        The reasoning power of some of our colleagues on this website is indeed astonishing!

  • 0
    0

    ‘The Morning After Uva…’ Dayan got a hangover!

  • 1
    3

    democracy is alive and well .

    Cheers

    Abhaya

    • 1
      0

      Abhaya

      “democracy is alive and well”

      Despite clan’s efforts.

      • 0
        4

        Veddha you idiot . If not for the Clan praba would have been running his khmer rouge imitation Elam kingdom.

        Cheers

        Abhaya

        • 4
          0

          Abhaya

          “Veddha you idiot . If not for the Clan praba would have been running his khmer rouge imitation Elam kingdom. “

          Obliteration of VP and his LTTE was initiated by Hindians in early 2005 when reluctant Chandrika was still the president. Hindians persuaded her to go for all out war and supported the Sri Lankan state in every way possible.

          Hindians subsidized MR’s election expenses which was transferred to VP being the payment on account for his services to democracy and to MR. VP won the elections for MR.

          Without Hindia MR wouldn’t have dared to take on LTTE. All types of necessary resources were provided by Hindians. It was Hindian war not Gota’s war as lot of you foolishly like to believe.

          LTTE was a Hindian baby (Taliban) and mother India decided the usefulness of her baby had already come to an end. The destabilisation was initiated by Hindia in 1982 and now it has ensured stability.

          Stupid Tamils and stupid Sinhalese will never learn.

          Both died for Hindian foreign policy misadventure.

          • 0
            1

            Not only are you delusional , I think you are a severe case of senile dementia . Get that checked out .

            Cheers

            Abhaya

            • 2
              0

              Abhaya

              “Not only are you delusional I think you are a severe case of senile dementia .”

              The truth will set you free but first it will p**s you off.

              – Gloria Steinem

  • 2
    1

    What won the narrow and yet crucial Uva elections for the Rajapakse
    family is the wide and illegal use of State assets (vehicles, petrol etc)violence against UNP and the JVP opposition in the Province, armed and other coercion. Police and the armed services personnel were openly used in favour of the Govt’s candidates.
    As Stalin was to say “It is not the people who vote that counts. It is the people who count the votes” You can depend on the Rajapakse family to ensure Stalin’s dictum holds. By our own election standards of the pre-1970, s reduction of electricity rates, petrol and kerosene only days before election day would have been declared election offences by any Court exercising its duty freely. But, alas! this is a precious commodity we destroyed decades ago. Election Commission officials were prevented from taking action against gross and naked violations during and pre-voting. By average standards in any free democratic elections – this is a mighty flawed one. PAFFREL and others will bear testimony to this.

    That the UNP polled more votes, despite Ranil’s terminal leadership and a divided UNP, is reflective of the unpopularity of the Rajapakse familial rule that finds itself increasingly battling efforts to control prices of essential food items – that only keeps rising.

    While the hegemony of the familial kleptocracy is certainly more than diminishing the impending blow in Geneva in March is inevitable and increasing.

    We are moving precariously towards a more pronounced fascistic Police State. DJ, the regime’s once wise man, offers the Rajapakses a lifeline with the idea of a Referendum. If any good is to come out of this analysis it is to increase DJ’s proximity to the Rajapakses for his chances of being included in the team to Geneva come next March.

    The constantly quarreling UNP has no other choice presently than to stick with the weak, ageing and obstinate Ranil.

    R. Varathan

    • 0
      1

      R. Varathan,

      Don’t cry! Your dreams were shattered when that animal was drowned in Nandikadal and taken out like a dead fish, then dragged down the muddy lagoon, with private parts barely covered with a loincloth.

      On the contrary Ranil and UNP is not weak, aging and obstinate …. etc. which your birdbrain ejaculates. Rather it is on the firm and calculated foundation laid by Ranil that UNP and Harin achieved this victory. Ranil has withstood the destructive, dismantling and erasing power of all the political cyclones and conspiracies and protected the party until crusaders like Harin emerged to take over the party and the country. So long as Ranil is there UNP is in good hands.

      • 0
        0

        Credit can be given to “Someone” for blind fidelity to Ranil but not to a rational comment. Even hardcore UNPers know Ranil will take them to a further debacle if he takes on Mahinda in the next Presidential Election. Ranil knows it too but he would rather let the UNP go down the drain than sacrifice the comfort and the large sums of money that comes his way in the comfort zone he is.
        he only factor in his favour are the two other possible challengers are worse – the washed-out Karu and the Kehelwatte Kid, who is yet to make a major public impromptu speech in a
        recognised Think Tank, in English.

        As to your other comments on my possible connection or sympathy with the Tigers or VP, they are just as faulty. But let me remind you of one thing – the need for the appearance of the Tigers still remains – unsolved and deliberately ignored. The Tamil people more alienated with every passing day and their precious land stolen. If you think this is good for the Sinhala people you are dead wrong again.

        R. Varathan

  • 1
    1

    Dayan, the epitome of After-the-Fact intelligentia!

  • 0
    0

    The double tongued a…licking political scenarist is still hoping to get some benefits from his master who has rejected him. continue the suck DJ and you might get some crumbs from under the table of the MARA. you have been proved wrong so many times and yet you waste the time of intelligent readers continuing to write crap.

  • 1
    0

    Shameless DJ, wondered why he was silent for all these day. Must have been analysing the which way the tide was turning. And he is trying to pin the vote base increase on the Sajith’s non-presence presence at the campaign. He seems to be under the premise that above all the capable UNP second tier stalwarts Sajith is better candidate to move UNP towards victory. DJ, lets analyse why should anyone in the party should make him the deputy leader. Sajith was absent from the campaigning for the most part, any support Harin got from people are base purely on his Charisma. If Sajith was a good team-sport and threw his hat in the beginning of the campaign, he can claim credit for the success( he actually pulled the party down) t cast a doubt among the voter about stability within the party, Besides Sajith in on Gota’s pay roll. Simply because his father was a good people’s man, achieved so many things to climb up in the ranks through sheer whard work and working hard despite all the social and economical disadvantages are deserves credit. And his son(just because he is the son of such man) be given the leadership of the party is again Nepotism that people of SL is currently so tired of. What has he done nationally or for the party to get the next UNP candidate position except he is the son of a famous polity. He sure doesn’t have charisma. At least anything to show for?

    If I were the party leaders I would suggest Harin for the deputy leadership, he sacrificed his parliamentary seat, he has Charisma, good orator, and he has a good vision, and he is smart and has better people skills. Roman Emperors always chosen the strongest man/warrior to be their successor, their own sons were omitted if they are not strong enough, when they name their succesor. Who would feel like voting after seeing Sajith’s depressed face RP for his credit a pleasant man.

    IMO Ranil looks better than him and Perhaps Karu would be hands down better Candidate than Sajith(he is so green). UNP gave the chance to Gamini Dissanayake who left the party and came back. This guy is carrying water for Sajith now. I hope Harin and Anura Kumara won’t fall for this dumb guy’s curry favoring trap to think he is a smart ass.

    One thing we should give credit for is that DJ who is incapable, boot licker is good at is identify who the potential powerhouses are( that is the skill of all the useless bumsuckers).

    No one talks about UVA and Monragala over 40K “rejected votes”, and why they were rejected? Who they were cast for. Cause, JVP it self got less votes than that. and those votes could have translated to at least 3 more seats. My theory is they rejected 2 to 3 K votes from each seat so that the combined opposition would not have more seats than UPFA.
    One should dissolve all the PC’s because it is a place where rest of the MP’s family members work and all those salaries allocated the Parliament, and PC councils are going to the same rotten families.

    It is suspicious all the numbers tally the GOTA’s sketchy internal audit of un-official election results when all the other election monitoring surveys said UVV is going to be won by UNP. This guy claims the system works, has he been sleeping during the last few months not to see the blatant law breaking the ruling party members did. Sure UPFA won, somehow and that some how is through illegal means. Do we know how much rigging, how the police, STF, army intelligence unit, presidential guard were hell bend in securing their victory? It wil come later now he warns us they still lost. My foot, yeah people will give a real rear end beating in near future, it may be soon or later on that day DJ would be stripped naked by angry mobs. I felt sorry for this guy during CBK time for the public humiliation he faced, But now I start to believe he deserves it.

    He really believes that GOTA will let his brother to lose with all the power concentrated in his hand, would let to have us a free and fair elections, right before his political aspirations of becoming the next dictator president of SL come to life-knowing that it will set of domino fall in SL politics. Every single survey has put Sahindra at 4th place in overall preferential votes how he ended up at 96K even is a questionable shows that rigging enmasse has taken place where they had cover to do so. He has a representative of the erudite community should talk about things like these, what a hypocrite. Just power greedy, lackey of the power.

  • 0
    0

    DJ is wrong in his analysis about minority vote in Uva. Most tamil votes went to UPFA because Thondaman,s party contest with UPFA. Without Thonda UPFA has lost.
    How can you guarantee that Mahinda will win in present context?

  • 1
    0

    Dayan Jayathilaka in his previous analysis before Uva election told that UNP should get minimum 40% to give contest in presidential election. Now what are you telling Dayan?

    Dayan you have to write analysis which should be logical. Your analysis will be read by more intelligent persons than you. So do not try to become a third class journalist by writhing bias analysis.

  • 1
    0

    Dayan:

    I know you have come in for a lot of Criticism over your involvement with the Genocidal Regime but I would not go as far to implicate you in the Genocide itself but you are certainly guilty of helping MR to hide the Forensic Evidence at the Crime Scene.

    I want to pick holes with your argument and first of all.

    Uva Province is not typical of Sri Lankan electorate for the following reasons.

    Uva Province was created in 1896 and currently Uva is Sri Lanka’s second least populated province, with 1,187,335 people. Uva consists of two districts: Badulla and Moneragala of which Badulla is the capital.

    The diversity in the Uva province is a unique feature of the area. Many cultural and ethnic groups live in harmony in the province while maintaining their own heritage and customs. These groups include Sinhalese, plantation Tamils, Muslims, Sri Lankan Tamils and Adiwasee communities.

    Uva is in desperate need of development as it is the poorest province in the country under normal conditions (the war has caused unprecedented damages in the North-East but prior to war, the North-East was above the average of the Uva). For example, in the Western province per household income per month is Rs. 25,602 and the figure for Uva is less than half and it is at Rs.11,178. Individual income in the Uva province per month is calculated at Rs. 2,570 and the figure for the Western Province is Rs. 5,999. The development reaches Uva at a very slow phase and there are many villages in the province without any access roads, electricity or clean water. By 2008, when the Western Province boasts of 2,299 Industries registered under the Ministry of Industrial Development and Board of Investment (BOI) Uva has just 37 Industries.

    *** You are wrong to say : Perhaps the fundamental thing about the Uva result is that it demonstrates that the fundamentally democratic system –most importantly the electoral mechanism and the Commission of Elections– is working, notwithstanding the incidents of coercive electioneering.

    You cannot say Democracy is alive and kicking in Sri Lanka after UVA.

    ***The choices for President Rajapaksa fall into two categories. Firstly, timing; secondly, composition and profile. The issue of timing is pretty much resolved. If he delays beyond the first quarter of next year, the impending blow in Geneva in March and the perception of economic adversity can only impact negatively on his vote. Furthermore, he has to strive to repair the damage caused by Uva and therefore cannot be seen to back away from an election. Time is not on his side, at the moment. What this means is that he will have to hold the election before March. As for the parliamentary election, he will have to follow through with one, because a long gap between even a successful Presidential and a parliamentary election could mean a loss at the latter which would in turn weaken him even if he has won a third term.

    I disagree with you and say the following.

    1) Timing is of consequence as the rest of the Country is firmly behind MRs agenda.
    2) Impending blow at Geneva: In my view MR will use it to his advantage and whip up hysteria amongst 20 million RACIST as an interference .
    3) Damage caused by UVA: I hava already said that UVA doesn’t reflect the National Mood.

    ***If Mahinda wins the Presidential election—which is likely, and may I say, would not be undeserved– the parliamentary election may see a domino effect, which, combined with the regime’s ‘rough trade’, would restore political dominance.

    The above confirms the saying that “Leopard never changes it spots” and you are despite all your recent pretences an ardent supporter and an admirer of MR.

    In my view the Stumbling Block internally to a Third Term for MR is Sarath Silva.

    Externally the threat comes from the pressure by BJP which is beginning to tighten the screw as one can see from below.

    Resume talks with TNA, BJP urges Sri Lanka
    Sept 21 (NIE) Muralidhar Rao, general secretary of the BJP in-charge of Tamil Nadu, and Vijay Jolly, global convener of the BJP’s overseas affairs committee, have appealed to President Mahinda Rajapaksa to “immediately” resume talks with the TNA. An immediate resumption of talks is vital for lasting peace in Sri Lanka, they told Rajapaksa at a 45-minute meeting here on Friday.

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    DJ, You just sold the last remnants of whatever self respect and professionalism you had, yesterday.

    No longer could anyone with an iota of intelligence consider you as a respected, serious, unbiased political commentator, worthy of a serious hearing. You simply shot down your own façade behind which you hid and fooled so many, for very many long years.

    No doubt you are now, absolutely transparent; nay, naked, and might I say alone, among those who really matter!

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