17 April, 2024

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The Next 25 Years: From Where Will The Economy Takeoff & Where Will It Land?

By Rajan Philips

Rajan Philips

Addressing the Sri Lanka Economic Summit 2022, an annual event organized by the Ceylon Chamber of Commerce, President Wickremesinghe reportedly shocked the business audience, questioning, “What reforms, when we don’t have an economy!” To an audience that was apparently waiting to hear serious stuff about an economic reform plan, the President said, “What is the plan for reform? Frankly, I have no plan for it.” But he had a programme to announce and called it, ‘The Next 25 Years.’

Mr. Wickremesinghe has been harping on 25 years for some time now. That is the President’s expectation for Sri Lanka to reach economic growth and prosperity by 2048, a hundred years after becoming independent from colonial rule in 1948. The 2023 budget that passed its Third Reading on Thursday is supposed to be the launching pad for the anticipated economic recovery over the next 25 years. Hence, the President’s programme: The Next 25 Years. And hence, too, questions about the economy’s takeoff and its landing. 

“Takeoffs, Landing and Economic Growth” is the subject of an Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI) Working Paper (#641, January 2017), authored by Debayan Pakrashi and Paul Frijters. The Paper lists the takeoff and landing status of twenty two South Asian and Southeast Asian economies. It provides a brief discussion on the experiences of  Japan, the East Asian Tigers, the tiger cub economies, the People’s Republic of China, and India. Sri Lanka is included in the list, but not in the discussion.

18 countries are identified as having had an economic takeoff including the year of takeoff. Only four countries are noted as having landed. The four countries with the takeoff and landing years are: Hong Kong (1960-1995), Japan (1946-1974), Malaysia (1968-1998), and Singapore (1966-1998). Sri Lanka’s year of takeoff is noted as 1990, the same year Vietnam is considered to have taken off. Neither country is registered to have landed yet. But we know that while the Vietnamese economy is in full flight, the Sri Lankan economy crash-landed in 2021. What will be its takeoff mechanism for the President’s Next 25 Year flight from its crash-landing state now. And how will it land again? 

I believe, the concept of economic takeoff was first introduced by Professor W.W. Rostow in his celebrated 1960 monograph entitled, The Stages of Economic Growth: A Non-Communist Manifesto. The ADBI Paper, citing Rostow, says that “a country is said to have taken off in terms of economic growth if it has effectively applied radical changes to its available resources and has set forth on a path of sustained economic growth extending for decades.”

I came to know about Rostow in 1972 from then Peradeniya Lecturer (later Professor) in Economics, N. Balakrishnan, in the course of his lectures on Economics to Engineering students. Years later I read a Marxist critique of Rostow that Hector Abhayavardhana wrote when he was living in New Delhi before his return to Sri Lanka in 1964. Re-reading Rostow, I find several resonances in Sri Lanka’s modern economic history as well as its current takeoff challenges. More on that, later. 

Three Interventions

For now, I would like to focus on three post-2023 Budget interventions in the public domain, one by a political leader and two by noted Economists. The interventions are significant for not only what they say, but also for what they do not say. The political leader is JVP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), who, as I wrote last week made a substantial speech on the economy and the political situation in the country in a public meeting in Badulla. 

On a side note, the mainstream media has by and large ignored AKD’s Badulla speech, which the Colombo Telegraph published at some length. According to JVPers, mainstream media always ignores them except to dig up 1971 and 1988 whenever there is something positive to report on the JVP. Nonetheless, the JVP leader deserves more media coverage than a nondescript like Channa Jayasumana who seems to have wormed his way to get media coverage in spite of his abominable record in maliciously attacking Dr. Shihabdeen Shafi, the Kurunegala Gynecologist, to get on the SLPP candidate list. 

That aside, AKD’s Badulla speech is a graphic exposition of how terrible things are – from unaffordable prices to collapsing industries to rampant corruption. But there is nothing in the speech by way of specific remedies, except for the general assertion that elections must be held soon and the people must elect a new leadership, i.e., the JVP, to take over. He wants the country to take a leap of faith and endorse the JVP, not quite unlike President Wickremesinghe’s message to the country to take a leap of faith with him for the Next 25 Years.

The two economic intervenors I am referring to are Prof. Sirimal Abeyratne and Dr. Nimal Sanderatne, both of whom are weekly Sunday Times columnists. Abeyratne’s November 27th column is appropriately entitled, “Road to a ‘developed country’ in 2048,” and describes the budgetary vision as an “export-oriented, competitive economy led by the private sector.” The scale of the desired export expansion is ambitious – a continuous $3 billion increase in exports year over year for 25 years. Or an annual increase of 25% from the 2021 export total of $12.5 billion. 

Perhaps the projected export growth is not to be deemed daunting, because after 25 years Sri Lanka’s total export value would be still under $100 billion in comparison to other export-successful Asian countries whose totals are already in the $300-$400 billion range. China is in a league of its own with an export total of $3.3 trillion. But China has a different problem, as is currently being noted by demographers, and it is that the country is facing a population decline by 50% at the end of this century if not 30 years sooner. It will be quite a load off for the planet, but it is going to be an excruciating challenge for the Chinese society.

As for Sri Lanka, the annual export growth of $3 billion is to be matched by an equal yearly increase of $3 billion in Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Sri Lanka’s FDI in 2021 dropped to a paltry $600 million, quite a way lower than Malaysia ($11.6 billion), Singapore ($99.1 billion), Thailand ($11.4 billion) and Vietnam ($15.2 billion). Curiously, the Next 25 Years are going to see exports and FDI increasing at the same rate and by the same amount to reach almost the same totals in 2048 – exports: $87 billion, and FDI: $76 billion. In contrast, the above mentioned Asian countries except Singapore have high export/FDI ratios – between 20 to 30. Is Sri Lanka going to miss out on productivity, or is productivity not meant to be a consideration for the Next 25 Years? 

The more important question is how are these export and FDI growth projections going to be achieved from year to year, if they are to be the roadway for Sri Lanka to become a developed country and join the high income club with a per capita membership fee of $12,695? Prof. Abeyratne lists four pre-requisites, three of which are included in the budget. They are the introduction of a “single agency,” consolidating the current BOI, EDB, SLECIC and NEDA pillars and posts into a single window, to facilitate trade and investment; New Economic Zones in different parts of the country; and bilateral and multilateral Free Trade Area (FTA) agreements. None of which are new and have been tried and talked before. The fourth requirement is what Prof. Abeyratne calls the “unilateral reform process,” which he considers to be “much more fundamental to export growth” than everything else. And this is what President Wickremesinghe cavalierly shot down at the Sri Lankan Economic Summit! 

There is something else missing here. To achieve an annual export growth target of $3 billion, is it possible and is it not necessary to identify where this growth is going to come from? What is the contribution to growth from the already established export industries? Which among them have potential for growth and how could they be encouraged to expand? What are the industries that have plateaued but still need to be supported to maintain their production levels? Should there be an effort to identify potential new industries which are grounded on evidence and market potential, and not on snake-oil-sales-pitch about automobile-assembly plants? Would it make sense to have an export-product-mix and use it as a basis for opening target-oriented single agency, economic zones, and free trade areas? 

Unique Karma

In his same day (November 27) Sunday Times column, Nimal Sanderatne hits the nail on the head by drawing attention to the enormity of the challenge of achieving the 2023 Budget objectives given “the political conditions in the country, production constraints in all sectors of the economy and the recessionary conditions abroad.” In his December 4 column, Dr. Sanderatne raises the possibility that the IMF’s $2.9 billion Extended Finance Facility may not be finalized even by March 2023. 

While it was overly optimistic on the part of everyone in Colombo to expect a smooth path to IMF’s support, Sanderatne is concerned about the geopolitical dynamic involving the restructuring of Sri Lanka’s debt to China and its political implications in Sri Lanka. He alludes to something that few would have thought could become a possibility. And that is the likelihood of, as Sanderatne suggests, China blocking the IMF facility and offering an alternative “bailout package with Chinese financial and commodity assistance.” Nimal Sanderatne further suggests that based on Mahinda Rajapaksa’s speech during the budget debate, “such a programme would have the support of a large and influential component of the Government” led by Mahinda Rajapaksa and the SLPP. This would place President Wickremesinghe in a quandary, and it would also explain his scurrying for alternative funding sources in the World Bank, the ADB and Japan.  

Geopolitical reality is what it is and it is Sri Lanka’s unique karma to have become indebted all at once to China, India, and the Paris Club lenders that includes Japan. It now has to find a way to restructure these debts without ruffling anyone’s feathers. Perhaps there is no denying that Ranil Wickremesinghe is the most suitable man for this unenviable task, but what is frustrating about him is that by his peculiar modes of operation he undermines his own suitability in the context of domestic politics. Put another way, there are serious hurdles to overcome before Sri Lanka can even get on the road to recovery, and the President has to engage the country far more substantively than by mere mantras such as The Next Twenty Five Years. 

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Latest comments

  • 9
    1

    “The Next 25 Years: From Where Will The Economy Takeoff & Where Will It Land?”

    Rajan Philips, Why do you waste your valuable time writing this nonsense/toss?

    The next 25 years —- This is a journey where we have reached the end even before the journey begins. …….. If you are not educated/intelligent/experienced enough not to know that …… what chance has the average man out there got?

    Does Ranil make fools of us ……… or do we make fools of ourselves?

    What say you Native ………. or are you looking around for your balls?

    You had them aplenty ……. when Mahinda/Gota was in charge.

    Take a lesson from that woman …….. in front of the Chinese consulate …….. :))


    Ah poison! …….. only have to find the Achilles’ heel ….. anyone will drink it …….

    • 7
      1

      In Napoli little kids dressed up in red have lined up to receive the newest messiah: AKD! ……… In my life I’ve seen messiahs lined up end to end as far as the eye can see ……. JR, Premadasa, CBK, Mahinda, Gota, Ranil ……… who were going to deliver us to the promised land

      But delivery has gone amiss …….. not even a pizza ……


      Every morning when I wake up as a Lankan ……. the question is ……. to be or not to be ………. Sinhala_Man, who asked the question was it Hamlet or Shakespeare? That is the question! ……. Or was it ol’ Adolf, just before the gun went off in his mouth by his own hand?

      Take away all guns and hide ……… don’t leave any near Native.



      Is this the real life?
      Is this just fantasy?
      Caught in a landside,
      No escape from reality
      Open your eyes,
      Look up to the skies and see,
      I’m just a poor boy, I need no sympathy,
      Because I’m easy come, easy go,
      Little high, little low,
      Any way the wind blows doesn’t really matter to
      Me, to me

      • 5
        1

        continued

        Mamaaa,
        Just killed a man,
        Put a gun against his head, pulled my trigger,
        Now he’s dead
        Mamaaa, life had just begun,
        But now I’ve gone and thrown it all away
        Mama, oooh,
        Didn’t mean to make you cry,
        If I’m not back again this time tomorrow,
        Carry on, carry on as if nothing really matters

        Too late, my time has come,
        Sends shivers down my spine, body’s aching all
        The time
        Goodbye, everybody, I’ve got to go,
        Gotta leave you all behind and face the truth
        Mama, oooh
        I don’t want to die,
        I sometimes wish I’d never been born at all.

        • 5
          1

          When I see Lankans, like the woman in the photo dressed in a green-top and folded-up jeans taking a selfi …. or Messrs Panini Edirieeesinheeees with perfect English and almost perfect Oxford Singlish accents …… a la Lankan English newsreaders …….. I think of my Grandmother’s funeral: a sad affair to keep a straight face ……… And Ramona is not even dead ……… and still a teenybopper ……..

          • 6
            1

            This is the full, 2 hours and and 7 minutes, video of AKD’s speech, and question-time, in Milan, Italy on 11/11/ 2022.
            .
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KSiRmfS4nrU
            .
            This is the English translation of AKD’S Badulla Speech about three weeks ago.
            .
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BbAU1mfsjI
            .
            There isn’t anything extra special about this video except that it was the one chosen for translation.
            .
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-BbAU1mfsjI
            .
            More than an hour. I first heard this, then read the translation. Better done the other way round if you’re checking on the accuracy of the word for word translation. This is one of the Electorate Level meetings being conducted by the NPP. Anura K. Dissanayake addresses many. He has a stump speech which he varies to suit the venue. The Electorate Level Meeting for Bandarawela (the Electorate adjoining Bandarawela has been announced as the 13th of January 2023. The speakers have not been announced yet. I fear that I may have to attend a different event on that day.
            .
            No audience is bussed in for these meetings, and ostentation is discouraged.
            .
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q_9cpIQdTzE&t=21s
            .
            Anura Kumara Dissanayaka Full Speech | Parliament | 2022-12-08 – 15 minutes on the budget. No fireworks. Concentration on clarity.
            .
            Panini Edirisinhe of Bandarawela (NIC 483111444V)

          • 5
            4

            Nimal, tho you ttribute to “Messrs Panini Edirieeesinheeees…. perfect English and almost perfect Oxford Singlish accents …… a la Lankan English newsreaders,” he still refuses to explain to me in comprehensible, if not perfect, English, what he meant by saying: “Manel, the name of whose hoity-toity husband was schooled in a ‘good ol’ Colombo Christian school.”

            Have U any idea what it means to school a name? How one does such a thing?

            • 6
              0

              Manel,

              Unfortunately he knows your identity. …….. He is an incurable I-don’t-know-what ……. has a very thick skin and …….. a even thicker impregnable skull ……. he’ll never stop.

              I can understand the hurt you feel …… and your desire to protect your husband’s honour/name; when he can’t do it himself.

              You and your husband have done your duty by the country/nation/society according to your conscience and that’s what matters. …….. You will never get appreciation/acknowledgment from the likes of him.

              • 3
                0

                continued

                He tried to find out who I was …….. used various tricks/tactics ……. I know these types even before they know themselves. ……. I dropped a few names – people I know wouldn’t give me away in spite of his constant pestering :)) – to pique his interest just to string him along and play with him.

                As for me complementing his English …… my father always says “Think of people sympathetically; you don’t know what lives they have had.” ……… It’s just my way of making him feel good about himself! :))

                If people feel good about themselves and have even a little self-worth they would refrain from doing some low acts/deeds. …….. Would Ranil be doing what he is doing now if he hadn’t lost everything and in turn lost all self-esteem and self-worth?


                I hope my throw-away words haven’t poisoned him …….. now he has become overconfident!

                They’re spoonfeeding Casanova
                To get him to feel more assured
                Then they’ll kill him with self-confidence
                After poisoning him with words :))

            • 2
              0

              Manel,
              “Have U any idea what it means to school a name?”
              Nimal did say “Singlish”. More on Iscawns, Scawns, Scones:
              https://youtu.be/o5vCVNS_jMc
              https://youtu.be/5o0bU4pmfVI
              https://youtu.be/yS916NoMfrE
              A scone/iscawn/scawn tastes just the same no matter what it’s called or cold.

            • 3
              3

              Manel
              You are showing annoyance where taking pity may be the right response.
              Send pitiable people a Get Well Soon greeting. It may help to cure the problem, at least in part.

            • 1
              0

              This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our Comment policy. The key to maintaining the website as an inviting space is to focus on intelligent discussion of topics.

              For more detail see our Comment policy https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/comments-policy-2

              • 1
                0

                This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our Comment policy. The key to maintaining the website as an inviting space is to focus on intelligent discussion of topics.

                For more detail see our Comment policy https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/comments-policy-2

        • 4
          0

          So, this is how nimal fernando finds the words to send messages:
          .
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OTm7G9GywbY
          .
          Five minutes from the 1980s. By Freddie Mercury and Queen?
          .
          I think that this is the song that some Colombo fellows selected as the overture to a play that I also acted in at Peradeniya in 1984.
          .
          As for the Shakespeare; that’s too easy. Many recordings.

          https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=To+be+or+not+to+be#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:f13af673,vid:muLAzfQDS3M
          .
          Or
          .
          https://www.google.com/search?client=firefox-b-d&q=To+be+or+not+to+be#fpstate=ive&vld=cid:ab33bf83,vid:nuH4EHB2eiA
          .
          The next ought to be exactly the same:
          .
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nuH4EHB2eiA
          .
          We must be very grateful to YouTube for giving us these, and fascinating material is given to us. However, the question does arise as to who is in charge; us or Artificial Intelligence?
          .
          All quotes from “Shakespeare” are from one of the plays (or sonnets, or – well everything included in the Complete Works) which is good enough for most people.
          .
          Panini Edirisinhe of Bandarawela

          • 1
            0

            SM,,
            “All quotes from “Shakespeare” are from one of the plays (or sonnets,…”
            Why the quotes?
            I am confused. Is this a fake “Shakespeare “?

    • 4
      5

      Sri Lankan sorcerers and astrologers as usual will be hired again and again by the mlechcha media to prophesy in favor of their script. This has been the game in this country for the last 15 years. Ganganga Hamis or other men and women who are already in “rehearsal mode” are behind the media scammers.
      -https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cCq9mkhsgFs
      With this being the reality of this country, how can anyone predict how the economy will land etc? Even if experts with the expertise would do it, would that be welcome in that Rajapakshe punished land ?

      I blame none other than the mainstream media of Sri Lanka who are fooling this nation to propagate the Rajapaksa dog theory. I wonder why university dons are unable to criticize media mafia networks and introduce a code of ethics. .

      The growth of media fraudsters is like a deadly blood cancer in this country. Today, the dichotomy between social media (based on listening) and mainstream media (television and print) has blurred.

      Next time, i would be glad, if they the mobs would destroy DERANA TV, Hiru TV and any other harmful youtubers. That will definitely do good to the masses if these parasites would be out of action.

      • 5
        2

        And please listen to this video below.
        .
        If this individual was not close to Mahind Rajapakshe, ?

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oij4exySPDc

        Not only those evil politicians but also Malcom R should be responsible for this great crime.
        .
        Even after the Easter Sunday disaster that claimed the lives of innocent devotees, Malcolm R was closer to the Rajapaksas than to his devotees. Toddy speaks before the same meeting as if he was born yesterday.
        This person must be complicit in misleading his worshipers by asking them to vote for Rajapaksa in the last two elections.
        Mahinda Rajapaksa is even corrupting his own child for his vote gain. He proved that at the last rally held at Araliyagaha Mandir on May 9.

        • 13
          1

          LM,

          First of all, I have nothing to do with your disagreements with Sinhala_Man: it’s a matter between the both of you. ……….. In the forum I stand and would like to stand alone.


          “If this individual was not close to Mahind Rajapakshe, ?”

          That is true and many here have condemned the cardinal ………… but what you hide here is, there was another person more close to Mahinda Rajapakse than even the cardinal: Ranil Wckramasinge!

          If Ranil was an effective Leader of the Opposition and of the UNP ……….. the Rajapakses wouldn’t have got away with so much corruption, looting, murder, chicanery.

          Ranil can’t avoid responsibility!! …….. Ranil is an “educated” man with some intelligence, who is knowledgeable and well aware of what goes around/went-on in the country.

          • 12
            0

            continued

            Living in that part of the world ……. you would’ve heard of “Bad Faith.”

            Sartre’s little skit about the ……. lonely woman sitting in the Cinema ……… when the lights dim …….. the hand of the man (Old Dodger?) sitting next to her slowly slips into her hand. …….. She knows it’s wrong and is left with the choice to remove her hand or keep it there. ……. She keeps her hand there and gives herself all sorts of excuses that she had no choice ……. that it was him who put his hand there so she had no choice; let him take it away.

            She had the choice to take her hand away and decided not to. She is fully responsible for her action and the choice she made. If not she is acting in Bad Faith.

            Your defence of Ranil now ……. is one of the worst instances of Bad Faith I’ve encountered: you can be better than this, LM.

            You are playing liar’s poker with the truth …… dealing out minor cards while hiding the Ace.

            • 10
              0

              continued

              Again living in that part of the world …….. I’m sure you are aware of the “Categorical Imperative” ………. “A categorical imperative, denotes an absolute, unconditional requirement that must be obeyed in all circumstances and is justified as an end in itself.”

              If Ramona with her marauding “Me Too” sistas armed with knives, swords, knuckledusters, baseball bats ……….. come looking for Native Vedda hiding under my bed ……… I’m bound by the categorical imperative to take them and show them exactly where he is hiding!

              We are bound by the “Categorical Imperative” to tell the truth at all times.

              And I’m also sorata morally bound to call the cops to save him ………. but I would do no such thing …….. cause I don’t believe in any of that moral or philosophy stuff: serves him right! ……… I’m corrupt to the core and I take full responsibility for what I am ….. try to stay away from good ol’ Bad Faith.

              • 9
                0

                continued

                People would do themselves a world of good ……. if their comments impartially reflect the truth of the ground reality of the country.

            • 2
              7

              1
              This is how you normalize things. It became clearer after I asked you to discuss “taxing in general”: like a madman shooting around, you came up with one after another, because I couldn’t even check them while I was so busy with work. I don’t want you to become the naive Bandarawela man who knows nothing but tries to be the teacher of CT. He doesn’t even seem to know the basics of JVPs, but follows me around like a mad dog. Because I cannot forget the extra judicial killings of 89 JVPs. Most of them were my friends and close ones who have been with me since childhood. It is a mystery to me how SM’s daughters would be if they were burnt. Because I am still traumatized by those barbaric atrocities of ’89.

              tbc

              • 9
                0

                LM,

                “like a madman shooting around, you came up with one after another,”

                When have you read any of your posts lately? Thas is what you do ….. please please please …… don’t try to dump it on me! :))

                This is the end of my interactions with you in the forum. ……. Although you are great at blaming others, take a look in the mirror …….. you are one of the most intellectually dishonest people I’ve come across here …… a very devious one at that!

                You deserve Sinhala_Man ……. you are twins born of different mothers.

                See, that was short and sweet and to the point ……… and above all truthful ! :))

                Have a nice day ….. and enjoy your mountain of work.

                • 8
                  0

                  LM,

                  Let me just add this one last bit, so the readers know what’s this about ……… how devious and cunning you are …….. in spite of your “mountain of work” when it suits you. :))

                  1. You wanted me to talk about taxes in order to get me to support the high taxes now imposed by Ranil.

                  I saw you trap/trick coming from miles away …….. cause I’m hip to all the tricks of Lankans ……… except of the comely ones.

                  2. You were trying to get me to say the country can’t go on if people are protesting all the time.

                  But you didn’t say that when people were protesting to get rid of Gota! :))


                  Leelage Malli …….. Please try your juvenile tricks on Kodebadapu Cheenu …….. even they wouldn’t fall for those ……..


                  Adios ……….. Amigo, eh? :)) ……… Have a nice day.

                  • 1
                    4

                    NF. It is very sad that individuals like S_M, LM have devalued this CT Forum by their ego or self promoting efforts instead of hitting at and shooting down social evils like judicial corruption. Free and fair access and independence of the Judiciary is important as your daily bread or bowl of rice.

  • 5
    1

    A little knowledge is dangerous, – Alexander Pope.
    Yet, I dare to venture with not even a little.
    .
    Anyone remembers The Colombo Plan.
    Why not a 25 year plan.
    Well done, Mr. President.
    What is the plan, exactly.
    At your age, your plan cannot be even for you. Why would you care.
    .

    • 3
      0

      “Why not a 25 year plan.”
      I can remember during budget times we produce forecast for short term (One year) , Medium term (Five years) and long term (up to 100 years). Long term forecasts are just assume that same assumptions remain the same as year 5. For example, the expenditure for defence could be increased in the same proportion as our budget 2027 increase. It assumes Ranil will be the President in 2050 means that Sri Lanka will have a President at the age of 99. The fact is that it is a forecast similar to those made forecast that Gota is our President for another 25 years. Even he wanted to make Sri Lanka as the first country of eco friendly organic state in the world. As long as citizens are fools they are hero’s.

  • 10
    4

    Is the author sleep-walking when he concludes that “Wickremasinghe is the most suited for this unenviable ask”. What evidence is there to support this outrageous prediction other than of faith? Ranil is the betrayer of the century, when he let down the UNP and betrayed their then candidate Sajith by allowing his friend Gota to overtake him in the lead-up to the elections. Such a rank scumbag who is beneath contempt, who uses the PTA to stifle dissent and acts very much the fascist autocrat totally immersed in his own grandiosity can never be trusted. Indeed his 50 year record in politics speaks volumes about his suitability! Only a team of dedicated and committed youth can change things by making a completely clean sweep with the full backing of the population. Don’t wait for elections..! They don’t deliver..!

  • 10
    16

    The suckers around Gota had a theme-“Sir ,you did such a wonderful job with all those public walks ( which ranil cannot even maintain properly ), you can now fix the economy !

    The fool Gota swallowed the flattery and began to think of himself as some wonder boy. We all saw the results .

    Now those around Ranil are playing up to his weaknesses in the same way. Sir you have such a vision, your family background is so clean , your legal career is so impressive-we must celebrate all this, come here and there as a chief guest !

    This guy without any sense of dignity, is hooted everywhere, ridiculed, even his friends do not want to say they went to that bogus party at Shangri-La !

    Why don’t his friends just tell him, the people never voted for him, he even lost his seat in parliament. Ranil is President only because the Rajapkse family was desperate for a protector.And they both have a interest in keeping this lie called Sri Lankan family politics going !

    • 6
      8

      Incompatible Prof. Deepathi Silva
      @
      Hope you change your medication soon.
      .
      Btw, is this the first time a parliament has chosen its next president in an emergency? No.
      https://island.lk/how-d-b-wijetunga-became-executive-president-of-sri-lanka/
      .
      Indeed, President Wijetunga was also elected by his parliament after Premadasa Sr. was assassinated. Remember?

      “Ranil is President only because the Rajapkse family was desperate for a protector.And they both have a interest in keeping this lie called Sri Lankan family politics going !”

      This wasAGAIN created by AKD and others so as
      by misinterpreting what Ranil said in the parliament… that is “I will become a Hitler”.
      The truth, as he stated,
      .
      “I was called a Hitler”……
      .
      JVP should be very careful when making accusations. I believe the Rajapaksa’s are the biggest criminals, but why could JVP not pursue any charges? Is it because the entire legal community is corrupt? I hardly believe it.
      Are the courts corrupt?
      Is the judiciary corrupt?
      :
      Can someone explain why it was all for naught?

      • 11
        14

        Leela I don’t want to insult you, after all you are a silly old man keeping company with chaps like OC and Vedda

        But is not true , that Wijetunga who succeeded Premadasa came to parliament on a vote, he was elected to parliament by the people in his electorate ( although not for presidency)
        He was also from Premadasa’s UNP which was endorsed by the people at that election to govern the country.
        He therefore had two endorsements-elected to parliament and from the political party which had won the elections.

        Is it the same with Ranil ?

        The people specifically rejected him at the last elections ! After being in politics for 50 years, PM so many times, the people in this country said we don’t want this man Ranil in our Parliament.

        Can you deny this ?

        • 9
          3

          Desperate deepthi silva

          “Leela I don’t want to insult you,”

          Please feel free download all your depression.
          You will feel happy, peaceful, ….

          “that Wijetunga who succeeded Premadasa came to parliament on a vote, he was elected to parliament by the people in his electorate ( although not for presidency)”

          He was appointed the president not exactly for that reason. He was a well known public racist and an effective war monger.

          “the people in this country said we don’t want this man Ranil in our Parliament.”

          You mean the noble 6.9 Million?

          • 7
            10

            Only you are right ? ? !!

            Stop talking nonsense Vedda- go back to the wanni jungle

            • 6
              2

              deepthi desperate silva

              “Stop talking nonsense Vedda- go back to the wanni jungle”

              I will, only when you lot the descendants of Kallathoni converts have returned to your south Indian ancestral homeland.

          • 5
            1

            NV,
            “Illang Kawa”?? 6.9 million SB’s wanted a “Hitler” to be sole ruler!!?? Ended up Starving and the ‘Rana Weerayas’ of 2009, ‘Ran Away through the “back door”, to let the Aragalaya protestors to “cool down themselves in the pool” and frolic for hours becoming a mere “Poosa”!!! without a whimper???

        • 6
          9

          Prof. Deepthi Silva,
          Thanks for insulting the seniors.
          That may be connected with your upbringing. So ?
          Learn to respect age, even though I’m not that old and I have 10 years until retirement, please learn to respect age, race, sexual orientation, gender or anything else.
          That is the least you can learn from Europe. I don’t know what job you join as a refugee in the UK, even if they are refugees, they have to learn to respect others later.
          I may not be 100% correct about the content of the previous link and its content, however, if anyone re-examines the existing constitution, it is legal to appoint RW as the next president, even if JVP tries to spread lies. Many may accuse others, but those who know know it clearly – and that is what matters.

          I don’t think lowlifes like you will ever see it right. Rajapaksa once acted backlickers for Medamulana criminals and now he is trying to come clean for some gains… How inconsistent are you? dont cause to waste my precious time. . thank you.

          • 6
            7

            Typo while travelling in coldness.
            .
            U once acted as backlickers for Medamulana criminals and now u are trying to come clean for some gains… How inconsistent are you? dont cause to waste my precious time. . thank you
            Get well soon
            😎

          • 1
            1

            LM. It is nothing but perversion of the Constitution: “if anyone re-examines the existing constitution, it is legal to appoint RW as the next president, even if JVP tries to spread lies. Many may accuse others, but those who know know it clearly – and that is what matters:” or perversion of the law. They threw chili powder on the face of the hapless population to carry out the robbery. RW is doing an excellent job of putting pampers on Gota who brought the country on its knees by allowing his buddies to rob the public coffers. Only right thing he did was to eliminate the use of chemical fertilizers which unfortunately went against him

  • 1
    7

    When Sri Lanka’s economy collapsed earlier this year, the government owed more money to private bondholders in Europe and the US than to China, but mainstream western media promoted the view that Sri Lanka was the victim of Chinese debt diplomacy.
    Local journalists quickly fell in line, aping the west, as they are habituated to do.
    China, now the world’s largest bilateral lender, has generated considerable anxiety in the west.
    China’s financing is largely unconditional and its loans not tied to demands for austerity or domestic reforms.
    The IMF, on the other hand, insists on structural reforms such as the sacking of civil servants, cutting pensions, and lowering minimum wages.
    It also subordinates the borrower’s economy to that of the US dollar and the West, leaving it in a perpetual dependency.

    • 7
      1

      (Part I)
      Hi Sarath,
      “China’s financing is largely unconditional and its loans not tied to demands for austerity or domestic reforms.”
      You may well have a point as to the agony of limiting deficit national budgeting and realistic exchange rates based on enhanced export earnings of USD or dilution or depreciation of the Rupee, if we are spend thrifts!!!
      Don’t forget one cannot remedy or cure a sickness without a Bitter, very bitter indeed Medicine!! We had a non-prescribed remedial course10 months ago?? Starvation or deprivation of 2 meals instead of standard 3 meals!!?? We seem to have lost track of the taste of it so soon?? Sri Lankan trait!!! People would blame on western machinations, but remember critically, it was India which came up WITH THE PACKAGE AND NOT CHINA!!??
      I wonder whether you have the luxury of remembering, the tail-end of colonial Ceylon and first decade of independent Ceylon, had similar SAVIOURS, SO CALLED, BECAUSE THEY SAVED THOSE Public servants who had to feed family, with the meagre salaries at their disposal and inflated prices soon after end of WW!!!!??? AFGHAN MONEY LENDERS, INFAMOUS REPUTE!!?
      THAT’S BEST COMPARE TO THE CHINESE LENDING YOU ARE ADVOCATING OR ADMIRING!?
      (TBC)

      • 1
        1

        Mahila
        “Sri Lankan trait!!! People would blame on western machinations, but remember critically, it was India which came up WITH THE PACKAGE AND NOT CHINA!!??”
        People have such short memories. Not even 10 months!

        • 2
          0

          OC,
          What 10 months??? That’ll take you to February/March 2022!!???
          I am talking about July/August 2022 – not even 5 months!!! They have consumed in full from the head orifice and excreted from the rear end and!!!???
          THERE IS A MEMORY LOSS AND REGAIN MEMORY OF ‘TOILET NADU’, WHICH THEY FORGOT WHEN CONSUMING THE MUCH NEEDED RICE CERAL SUSTENANCE!!!!
          10 months is too long for these beggars, because they would forget their mothers, even though some mothers would have taken 10 months to bring them forth to this world!!!
          What kind of imbeciles to cope with!!!???

    • 3
      1

      (PART II)
      IF YOU ARE NOT AWRE OF WHAT IS BEING SAID, GO TO TIMES ARCHIVES AND WIJESOMA CARTOONS/LAMPOONS OF THE LATE FORTIES AND EARLY FIFTIES!! SELF EXPLAINING!!??
      They were true saviours, because thousands of such families would have gone on empty stomach and resulted in a malnourished Nation, hoping to be liberated within months with fanfare and buntings from British Imperialism!!??
      So equally, Chinese are saviours too, for having given us Infrastructure going nowhere, airport hardly visited by an airline, unless tourist in one group arrival want to enjoy the Yala National park and so the Hambantota Port (HBT) forgetting mainstay of Sri Lankan port terminals have been TRANSHIPMENT to continental Indian subcontinent – India, Bangladesh, Pakistan!!! Didn’t ever replace the position of Singapore in the Fareast!!?? Now China has control of HBT, you can forget Indian sub continental goods transhipment there!! Day Dream!!??
      Lotus tower, Nelum Pokuna are sentinels to remind citizens’ of Pohottuwa dream, paid fro from public purse!!
      Don’t know what good this has brought to this country and its emancipation?? THE ONLY THING THAT COULD BE SEEN IS THE MESSIAH HAS A FAT PURSE AND IN BILLIONAIRE CIRCLE!!
      (TBC)

    • 3
      1

      (Part III)
      If that’s what you consider as the “GOODIE” about it be happy and be enthused for the “Second coming”!! NAY “THIRD COMING”, WHEN THAT HAPPENS, YOUR DINNER PACKET WOULD BE COMPLETE WITH CHICKEN SOUP TO MAKE IT WELL ACCOMPLISHED DINNER!!!
      THEREAFTER, “MAY LORD ALMIGHTY HELP,” AS MESSIAH BEING MORTAL, CANNOT ENVISION BEING ARTICULATE!!??
      SHORTLIVED ECSTACY, LIKENED TO THE AFGHAN EXPERIENCE OF UPTO LATE 1950’S!! THAT WAS A MENACE INDEED AND SIR JOHN HAD A NONDESCRIPT SOLUTION TO SAVE THE Lankans FROM THE AFGHANS!!!??
      CANCEL FORTHWITH (OVERNIGHT ININSTANCES) THE TEMPORARY RESIDENCE PERMIT (TRP)
      All afghans, with or without the return of the loans, had to take the boat to Dhanuskodi or be arrested and immigration detention!!!??

  • 1
    1

    The Next 25 Years: From Where Will The Economy Takeoff & Where Will It Land?
    No mans land
    Ranil is saying and imposing Painful adjustment this means suppression who creates a new business, bearing most of the risks and enjoying most of the rewards Country will take off with loans and travel with loans condition and land in no man’s land until the IMF wants the reset of the parliamentarian and the economy negotiations were progressing but did not provide a timeline for when a deal would be finalized constitutional amendments were required where is the accountable those who defrauded the country but having protesters on where Ranil was able to be president and then on the spot punishment for the protester after he became president.

    • 2
      1

      Sarath,
      What did all the smart Alex Sri Lankans do when these loans were being taken??They were in the cheer squad of Messiah – API THAMAI HONDATEME KELLE!!??
      HONDATEME KELLA THAMAI??
      CHICKEN SOUP, RICE KANCHI NATHUWA PANN PETHAK AMARUWENG KALE HITTIYA!!!???
      Where is this cheer squad now!!!
      ELECTION TIME ONLY TO MESMERISE THE VOTERS, INVEIGLE THEM TO GET MANDATE – OPPORTUNITY ROB AGAIN!!!???

      • 1
        0

        Dear Mahila,
        My English is poor. Hence, I take the trouble to avoid saying things that I am not certain of.
        If I could be of help, ‘smart aleck’ is what you were looking for.

        • 0
          0

          Nathan,
          Thanks for pointing out. I have overlooked it in proofing> nevertheless, mistake is a mistake

  • 13
    0

    Let me get this straight, is MR still expecting a bail out package from China under his leadership & beleiving everything will be hunky dory? Have we forgotten that it was this guy & his cronies who got us in this mess with white elephant investments, massive scale corruption & utter mismanagement? Is MR serious that people still have faith in Mahindaeconomics?

    I recently came accross a Tik Tok clip where Tiran Alles states in public how he fascilitated a meeting with LTTE & witnessing Basil paying the LTTE Rs 180m in hard cash to buy boats. Isn’t this high treason in times of war with Alles aiding & abetting? Alles can be pardoned for blowing the whistle but he is now the Minister of Police, & RW, the defeated candiadte due to this conspirascy, is now the President but they are all silant. Despite all this treachery, MR still has audacity to seek another term. If the voters still beleive in MR & his clan, then SL deserves to be up shit creek.

    • 8
      1

      Raj – UK,
      “Despite all this treachery, MR still has audacity to seek another term. If the voters still believe in MR & his clan, then SL deserves to be up shit creek.”
      You must be in Dreamland, if you think otherwise, that majority of Sinhala Buddhist (SB), whether due to ill-education due to Anagarika Dharmapala’s decree and inhibition to Private religious School education during colonial era, then being the primary/foremost system imparting knowledge into Sri Lankan students to emancipation, Or over exposition to 2600 years’ SB education and hegemony in this country being immaterial – the RESULT IS THE MESSIAH in the style and form of Mahendra Percival Rajapakse – though as the names (especially 2nd implies) not a true enough SB at birth but connected to lineage pampering other religious faith monetary gains (Rice Christians) who attributable to dominant SB belief, “AS REDEEMERS” of this country and forgiven for all time of any misdemeanours, of whatever magnitude, or enormity, heinous or insignificant!!???
      NOTWITHSTANDING, TIME AND OVER!!??
      MESSIAH IS THE ONE ELECTABLE BY SB’S EVEN IF SHORN NAKED like the “Famous Emperor”!?
      WORST CASE SCENARIO, NONE ELSE ACCEPATABLE, UNLESS ANOINTED/CHRISTENED BY THE MESSIAH AS DISCIPLE – ‘tickling 3-some to delight and high heaven’!!!??

    • 2
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      Raj – UK,
      His one and only ambition is make sure, to be in the “saddle”, when death does come-by!!?? Have the largest congregation amassed for thr Funeral!!!
      API THAMAI HONDATEME KELLE!!??
      AFTER THAT KATTE PUS!!!??
      All participants and well-wishers are rewarded SL Rs. 15,000, ¼ Bottle of Arrack and Chicken Biryani, to get over the sorrow at the great loss to humanity!!!!!????

  • 5
    4

    “Sri Lanka’s year of takeoff is noted as 1990, “
    By whom I wonder.
    Was it not in 1978 with the opening up and aiming to make the country another Singapore?
    *
    Let us be fair to the country. Governments since 1977 without exception failed to resolve the civil war peacefully.
    The crippling selling off of assets to fund the war continued even under CBK, the angel of peace to some.
    There were badly needed repairs and restoration work since the end of the war.
    There are no simple explanations.
    What we face now is the threat of eternal indebtedness, thanks to the IMF.

    • 5
      1

      (Part !)
      SJ,
      You may be right in a way but not in its entirety and realm?
      Ronnie de Mel Budget October 1977, under the watchful eye and guidance of 1st Finance minister of Independent Ceylon, 30 years before, was virtual opening and invitation to Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) 1st One-stop Free trade Zone, Katunayake!!!
      In fact the war, Bull W’s 2 year tenure of experiment ‘Bullwarks’ in NP and resultant reactions for that period and after 1983 attempt at attempted initial Ethnic cleansing in the economical aspect of the Industrial, Commercial, Educational, Financial aspects of the established institutions, then in this country to SB control!!! This consumed a good part of the political time and climate for any FDI and other developments, save for the Accelerated Mahaweli Scheme 1978 to 1989 unhampered! Not reflected in the stock market even!! Then mayhem of the “New wave”, ‘Jathaka Chinthanaya’ (JC) of 3 years of misconceived “youth revolt, ”1987/89, which didn’t come to the forefront of youthful thought due to prevalent malnutrition 1970 to 1979 era of Sirimavo affecting the children of 70’s for the next 2 decade!!!??? One should excuse them, not politically, unless, now though belatedly they willingly
      TBC

      • 2
        2

        My comment was about the so called ‘takeoff year’.
        The country had to work with a handicap, and direct comparisons are not entirely valid.
        *
        “prevalent malnutrition 1970 to 1979”
        Do you have any data or reference to any about this phenomenon?
        Are you, otherwise, counting on the intellectual laziness of the average reader who would accept any sweeping statement that fits with prevailing prejudices.

    • 3
      1

      (Part II)
      to tender and unreserved public apology!!?? Not the “Hodge Podge allude by AKD, VH, Lal K and the CLAN” They must confine such to the JVP private library!!???
      The “real happening” happened only after 1989, “WHO IS HE? WHAT IS HE DOING?” CAMPAING PRESDIENTIAL CAMPAIGN DURING THE HIGHT OF THE JVP CAMPAIGN!!??
      Post 1956 UNP clan in power with fresh thinking, though LA,GD and a group old satlwarts in the chamber, but devoid the strings of power!!??
      The resurgence happened, and the people slowly realised, who this man was and what he was doing by 1990, transformation dawned in the stock exchange, share trading and currency liberised well and truly finding its own depths and crescents, to a large extent not manipulated free trade with rejuvenated village level economic resurgence Garment industry target of 200 units initially!!!
      Direct presidential intervention in economy as Finance Minister and through Paskeralingam as, Secretary to Treasury!!! SO DAWNED 1990 AND DEFINITELY NOT BEFORE!!??
      Perhaps, the delinquency of 1970-77, malnutrition caused a lag of a decade or 2 of reaining potential of productivity to 1990!!?? We may experience the same scenario post 2020 to 2022, though this is a ‘SHORT SPAN’!!! Who knows!!??

    • 7
      1

      “Let us be fair to the country. Governments since 1977 without exception failed to resolve the civil war peacefully.”

      Thanks to our neighbour China and its all weather Mango friend Pakistan and their friend USA and their enemy Hindia.

      • 0
        5

        Still no help at hand!
        Relax. Do not get wound up over nothing.

  • 3
    1

    I have the impression that in addition to sinhala land exporting its females including for questionable purposes that there are sinhala land politicians including female ones that want to promote sex tourism. Now that Bali in three years time will have a ban on sex outside marriage it is opportune for sinhala land becoming the next Bali?? (never in a 100 years will sinhala land be the next singapore!!!)

  • 8
    1

    Rajan Philips: Are you “Born Again”? Haven’t you lived through the many years of “Ranil W” being a “Minister”, “Prime Minister”, “Leader of the Opposition” and now a “Proxy President”?

    Do you still “Rate” him to be the “Leader” capable to handle this precipitous situation having explicitly FAILED in holding all those positions I stated above?

    Let us at least NOW stop talking about these “FAILED” leaders and move towards a CHANGE and look to infuse some “NEW BLOOD” to give life to this dying country and the nation. There is no time to waste.

  • 7
    0

    “Should there be an effort to identify potential new industries which are grounded on evidence and market potential, and not on snake-oil-sales-pitch about automobile-assembly plants? “

    The prospect of auto-assembly plants has been talked about for the past 30 years, but nothing appears to have happened. During the same time period, Tamil Nadu has been successful in getting many automakers to locate their plants there. War, an unstable political and economic environment, a lack of good technical institutes to produce a skilled workforce, and the lack of a workforce that is hungry for learning and productive work, are all possible causes for this. SL can still link with TN and the broader South India to grow its economy, but there is a lot to be done on reconciliation, justice for war crimes, and political solution before that can happen.

    • 8
      0

      “Tamil Nadu has been successful in getting many automakers to locate their plants there.”

      What is the size of the internal market in India? ………. A billion or so. China also has a huge internal market.

      The internal market for assembled autos in Lanka is tiny ……. unless they export. Who can we export to? …….. Who is our market?

      • 7
        0

        There is nothing much to add to what Nimal . F already said. As long manufacturing and external markets are concerned, there is a possibility of having subsidiaries to large MNF ‘s in India. Right now there is dearth of professionals, skilled / semi skilled workers, professionals with fluent English knowledge, even land/ resources ( due to cheap politics), in South India. Many have left shores for greener pastures. Hence automobile, I.T, pharmaceutical, education / health joint ventures, are still a possibility in Lanka. The markets for this will be in Asia / Africa. I too have same concerns for IMF bailout being delayed due to China’s hidden plans.

        • 3
          0

          To further clarify, my above message is just a possibility. Given our political history, (SB/ yellow robe/ anti India politics), will this ever materialize is a big ? Even then RW’s 2048 plans are nothing but fantasy. In my opinion, Scam /Sham Lanka recovering from bankruptcy it self , is highly doubtful.

          • 6
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            NF and Chiv,

            Leaving politics aside, SL can start with auto parts manufacturing and then gradually move up. The initial market is there in Asia and Africa. Even TN had to compete with other industrialized states like Gujarat and Maharastra to have the plants there. It is based on an existing ecosystem that was developed over several years. They had long-established companies like TVS motors ( which probably partnered with Suzuki and Delphi) along with a steady supply of skilled technicians and engineers that inspired confidence among automakers.

            I have heard that the Colombo port is very competitive and efficient in its operation, probably even better than many Indian ports. I have also heard from some aircraft technicians from SL, who found jobs readily in the Canadian aerospace sector, that SL probably has a decent supply of good aircraft technicians. So Aviation MRO ( Maintenance, Repair, and Overhaul) is another possibility. Even some of the technicians in the Air Force may find it more lucrative to leave the military and engage in private entrepreneurship in the MRO sector.

            • 6
              0

              “SL can start with auto parts manufacturing and then gradually move up. The initial market is there in Asia and Africa.”

              Agnos,

              Auto industry is one of the most difficult to break into and remain successful – long-term. ……… because of the constant model changes …… and the regular outlay from profits required for research and development to keep up with the competition.


              I’ve studied GM, Ford, Ferrari et al …….. for investments, it’s cyclical and have made some decent profits in turn-around-s. Earlier GM had different cars designed for different markets and manufactured in the host countries ……. I think Vauxhall in UK, Opel in Germany, Simca in France, Holden in Australia etc. ……… they were all unprofitable and eventually gave up. Ford had their own models specific to the market manufactured in the host countries ……. that was also unprofitable and eventually gave up.

              • 7
                0

                continued

                GM, Ford, Toyota, Mitsubishi and perhaps some others ……… assembled cars in Australia and perhaps also in NZ ……. some with government subsidies to provide local employment (a la DeLorean Motor Company in Northern Ireland.) The local markets were very limited and they tried to find overseas markets for their assembled autos …….. were unsuccessful and eventually closed down the factories.

                Have you considered the tax levied on their imports by other countries? …….. Many Japanese manufactures moved their manufacturing/assembly to the US to overcome high import duties.

                I don’t like to be a naysayer ……… but we have to have a plan and first know who/what our market is ……. and how big.

                My gut feeling is financial services (in a very well regulated, devoid of even a hint of corruption – easily said than done) and IT services/development will be a better bet. Initial outlay is not vast ……. and we don’t have to wait for outsiders/external-large-companies ……. to bring their manufacturing here.

                • 3
                  0

                  NF,
                  .
                  1) You are mixing up auto assembly plants with design R&D. The former are designed to handle manufacturing regardless of vehicle design changes. And the automakers have their own R&D for design changes; the plant operators don’t have that expense. You will find many assembly plants and parts manufacturing companies in Ontario, Canada while the R&D and design are handled in Detroit.

                  As the West seeks to decouple from China and move manufacturing to democratic countries like Vietnam, Malaysia, and India, Sri Lanka should prepare to form the right alliances and get some of that work. The cyclical nature of the auto market is overridden by the cost advantages and quality that SL can provide. While SL may lag behind urban areas of India, it has some advantages over the rural, landlocked parts of India, and should press every little edge it can get.

                  Contd.

                  • 3
                    0

                    2 of 3/

                    Consider. The Canadian ambassador to Sri Lanka, David McKinnon, recently retired to Ottawa and faced sticker shock on his wireless plan, saying his prepaid plan in SL cost no more than C$10/month, while it costs him 6-7 times more in Canada. While a wireless plan cannot be exported, think of a range of products that can be exported.

                    As the Indian economy grows and labor and real estate costs there become higher, even Indian manufacturing may not be cheap enough. So for the next 25 years, SL probably will have a price advantage, provided it can learn to manufacture high-quality products. It will take some time to develop the right ecosystem, but it can be done if there is political stability.

                    • 4
                      0

                      3 of 3/

                      IT and financial services outsourcing are already being done; they just need to expand those. But that is not going to be enough. One can’t force someone who is good at hardware troubleshooting into developing software.

                      Some of the entrepreneurs who have sought to help develop local startups in the Northeast tell me that it is very hard to motivate the youth there. Many simply want to reach some foreign country, but they don’t understand what kind of hardships await them when they go overseas. Until the recent economic collapse, it wasn’t the same in Colombo, but now even well-established professionals in Colombo are trying to leave the country. People need to feel things are turning around before anything serious can happen, and a political solution and reconciliation must precede that.

                    • 4
                      0

                      Agnos,

                      Thanks ……. I get where you are coming from.

                      Sure, assembly and design/research can be separated. ……… When an auto-maker ships out assembly to a cheap-labour country …….. who owns the assembly plant? Is it owned solely by the auto-maker ………. or in partnership with a local/host business or totally by a business in the host country? What I’m asking is who incurs the constant outlays for tooling for frequent model changes? Is it the Auto-maker or the local assembly-business owner?

                      For a long time, the old VW Beetle was assembled in Brazil ….. it was the same model for years without any requirement for new tooling …….. is that what you mean?

                      I can’t disagree with most of what you have said: It’s great if those can be carried out. Like you say, political stability and a long term economic framework that does not change with the ideology of every incoming government is of great importance.

                      I feel auto-assembly is a big step ……. I feel we can do many little things like Taiwan. Taiwan Semiconductor is a case in point …….. where they assemble for many brands starting with Apple ………


                      Sorry, couldnt put it below 3/3 …… no “reply” there.

            • 8
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              Agnos,
              TVS is more than a hundred years old, and was thriving even in colonial times.
              https://iconsofindianbusiness.com/article/a-motor-company-of-100-years-tv-sundaram-iyengar-sons
              There were and are people like Sundaram Iyengar in this country. The Gnanams ( St.Antthony’s), Selvanayagams (Carsons) the Expo owners, are all in that category. But they regularly get burnt down and have to start from scratch. But you can become the richest man in the country with a portfolio of brothels and gambling dens if you belong to the right community…

              • 4
                4

                OC
                The big Indian industrialists with perhaps the exception of Birla, kept a distance from the independence movement. Birla too was cautious despite his warmth towards MKG.
                *
                Bright ideas do occur to many when seated alone in a watery room soon after daybreak.
                The wiser ones think through by breakfast time and abandon them before others have a chance for a good laugh.

                • 4
                  0

                  We are in 2022. For bright ideas to work you need bright people around, not the typical Lankans who justify immorality and corruption. I guess that’s why Lanka is INdependence. Right now rest of the world is having a good laugh, looking at Silly / Stupid Lanka. The same TATA who owned Air India before nationalization bought it back from government.

                • 2
                  3

                  “…wiser ones think through by breakfast time and abandon their ‘bright ideas’ before others have a chance for a good laugh.”
                  Lesser ones will insist that their ideas are most bright.

              • 5
                2

                OC,
                “But they regularly get burnt down and have to start from scratch.”

                It is up to the Sinhalese polity to decide whether they want to let the racist mobs tear down the country, with the entire country suffering from economic collapse, or whether they will find ways to marginalize the hardliners and racist elements and prevent them from destroying the country’s future.

                I think AYS Gnanam’s grandson is still an active entrepreneur in Colombo, supporting some IT startups.

                • 4
                  0

                  Agnos,
                  Yes, Gnanam’s grandson runs the most modern IT hub on the site of their burnt Cyntex factory. It was built with their own funds, unlike Gota’s pet IT hub a mile or so away. I sincerely hope that its hi-tech fire protection system is never used.

                  • 3
                    0

                    OC
                    Samuel was the great one for genuine local engineering enterprise.
                    What happened to his business has lessons to offer about the open economy since 1978.
                    Reprocessers and re-labellers of imports.dominate the scene.
                    There are a new few creative ones but I fear that they will be bought out or sunk by vested interests.

                    • 1
                      0

                      SJ,
                      “Reprocessers and re-labellers of imports.dominate the scene.”
                      Yes, and there are also those who “invent” electric cars which have alternators to recharge the battery on the go. Even the Japanese didn’t think of that. I wonder why?

        • 0
          0

          NF said:
          “China also has a huge internal market.”
          *
          c adds:
          “I too have same concerns for IMF bailout being delayed due to China’s hidden plans.”
          *
          Thanks for the “bright ideas”.
          I am feeling a little bored. Any more ideas from the thinking seat in the watery room?

      • 4
        0

        True India is currently producing for internal market. But that saves huge fx on import. Further it’s a road map to become an exporter.
        In the IT industry TN is an exporter. All major IT companies have footprint in TN. What more the foot paint is now becoming COE – centre of excellence sort of IT research lab.
        Hollywood is outsourcing toTN film industry.
        Pharma companies are outsourcing their production to India/TN
        Robotics and Artificial intelligence India/TN is leading the way
        A financial tax heaven was recently opened in Gujarat.

        Who is Sri Lanka’s market? Middle East for house maids. That is the sad fact.
        Sri Lanka’s internal market is saffron robes. Not the cloth but those who adorn it

        • 6
          0

          Agnos and Rajash, India has established markets in Asia, Africa, East European countries and Latin America. They have Pharma, Automobile, IT, Construction, Transport (railways) among many others. Most MNF , have collaboration with Indian partners Nestle, Unilever, Cummins, Ford, Whirlpool, Pfizer, GSK ——. Among service industry there is potential for health, education, banking / investment , IT, animation / gaming . One of my medical school batch mate, an Orthopedician started producing low cost implants ( hip and knee) for people who can’t afford to buy , what is currently available in market. Within years he is now supplying to few African countries including Uganda, Ghana, Sudan. In addition big players like Adani , Ambani and Tata are rapidly expanding their own business worldwide.

        • 0
          0

          Rajasthan,
          “True India is currently producing for internal market. But that saves huge fx on import”
          Not quite true. India produces 22 million(!) vehicles on average.
          https://www.siam.in/statistics.aspx?mpgid=8&pgidtrail=13
          About 4.5 million are exported, the biggest importer being the US.

          • 0
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            OC,

            The % mix for export/internal is about 16/84 for passenger vehicles ……… and about 20/80 for all vehicles. A good enough mix for sustainable/viable auto manufacture/assembly.

            But Indian car imports into the US doesn’t even register here https://www.statista.com/statistics/260886/-us-passenger-vehicle-imports-by-country/ ……… I guess the Indian auto industry is mainly supported by the internal market.

            Mexico has no automakers of their own, but NAFTA helps them to be the largest exporter into the US: cheap labour and the distance from assembly to the market helps. https://www.chicagofed.org/publications/economic-perspectives/2017/6.

            It’s Milton Friedman’s Chicago School’s “Free to Choose” in action …….. but what they don’t consider is ……. when auto-workers in the US lose their jobs to Mexicans, how the American auto-workers are going to pay for imported vehicles without an income. …….. One main reason for the ascendency of Donald. …….. Busy now, can discuss this later …….

            That’s why Truman asked for a one-handed economist ……….. they are always saying “On the other hand”

            I’m glad Native stayed away from Economics ……… he is authentic! :)) ………. Hide when the 154 bus passes by!! :)))

            • 0
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              Nimal
              In real terms, Indian vehicle exports to the US are tiny compared to other exporters, but the US takes about 8% of Indian exports.
              Tuks are a bit of a novelty there, apparently.
              https://youtu.be/pFKEiQ9Hu2g

    • 4
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      Agnos,
      Sri Lanka should only take on Manufacturing automobile as main contractor andnot as 2nd to Tamil nadu – popularly known as ‘Toilet Nadu’!! why can’t we be the main person for the assembly of the Automobiles!!??
      you see we are a proud countyr and won’t play 2nd fiddl r to

      • 1
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        True India is currently producing for internal market. But that saves huge fx on import. Further it’s a road map to become an exporter.
        In the IT industry TN is an exporter. All major IT companies have footprint in TN. What more the foot paint is now becoming COE – centre of excellence sort of IT research lab.
        Hollywood is outsourcing toTN film industry.
        Pharma companies are outsourcing their production to India/TN
        Robotics and Artificial intelligence India/TN is leading the way
        A financial tax heaven was recently opened in Gujarat.

        Who is Sri Lanka’s market? Middle East for house maids. That is the sad fact.
        Sri Lanka’s internal market is saffron robes. Not the cloth but those who adorn it

      • 2
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        You are proud country sending Sinhala maids to clean toilets for the Arab Muslims. Ha ha

      • 5
        0

        Mahila, Your sarcasm may be missed by some.

        • 1
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          Agnos,
          Your assessment is spot-on!! I cannot agree with you more!!! It was bad proofing or none, as I was in a hurry!
          Nevertheless, thanks for pointing out the lapse and you are welcome!!
          Our intelligentsia are only interested in NOT PLAYING SECOND FIDDLE!!?? How and Why is immaterial!!!???
          For instance, take the example of Standardisation of University admission with an adjustment in entry qualification!!??
          Has anyone thought of uplifting the standard of the rural educational standard and aligning it to the Northern schools!! No, none at all!!
          All of them are very happy with the outcome, larger number of idiosyncratic asinine are admitted into the ASPA (Horse) Vidyalaya!!! As long as they aren’t the Northern type being admitted more they are content and happy!!! “Dog in the Manger attitude”

  • 6
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    nimal fernando

    “Who is our market?”

    Have you ever been employed in the state sector, or a former state functionary?
    Please think in terms of Efficiency and Quality. Japan with only 100 million or less population in the 1960s began capturing world market not only for Motor vehicles but almost all manufactured goods. Then Korea, ……….

    Can we not encourage the people of this island to increase its population to 1.3 Billion?
    Maybe saffron army can legally, religiously, morally … make it happen. The Vinaya should be rewritten to suit the country’s needs.

    Maybe, Kandyan hospitality is a brilliant tradition.
    With the permission of our Surgeon General and Kamala we could ask our neighbours Hindia and China to send minimum 500 million persons from each country.

    Have a good day.

  • 8
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    JVP certainly have their plan for economic recovery. So let’s not pretend there isn’t one. It might be a bit of a discomfort for the conventional business community, but that is the very sector that needs a revamp in line with the Sri Lankan ability, innovation, and need. Hoarded country money of the hardworking-suffering-Lankan-Masses will be force-returned to the Masses, so they can begin to live lives of normal human functioning. From that launching point, building up from within their own innovative spirit will certainly take Motherland to good heights. Of course, part will be kept for global interaction without any fanciful mad-cap megalomanical theft.  Lankans will soon learn to live within the natural means of the nation.

    • 11
      1

      We need not land our ship/plane at other countries’ benchmark. No, that is not a good indicator of a successful nation. A successful nation is one where the masses are not malnutritioned for certain city folks to eat and party at fancy restaurants at home and abroad. A successful nation is not where certain city folk send their children abroad to study at expensive Western universities (unless on scholarship) over the struggling village or city shanty child who has no resources to textbooks, leave alone writing paper and pencils. Money will not be allowed to leave the shores unnecessarily. Industries can include organic farming and livestock & fishing industry; trading within the nation given first priority. No need for Ranilian presidency to run after high-level crooks of all races, including Tamil arm-twisters who took the proceeds of the LTTE collection-box from the suffering Tamil Masses after the Tiger defeat. Return the money to the suffering Tamil people, I say!

    • 6
      1

      Ramona dear
      “Hoarded country money of the hardworking-suffering-Lankan-Masses will be force-returned to the Masses, so they can begin to live lives of normal human functioning.”
      Are you talking about a shortage of toilets? If not, please translate that into English.

  • 0
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    Did anyone of these CBK , Mahinda or Ranil foresee in 1997 , the current disaster
    for them to know the future in another 25 years ? All they need to do is , working
    hard to book a place in the Hell for their SINS ! They went to Tripathy , maybe
    even met Saibaba at some point (not for the country) ! There is however , one thing
    where JVP is dead right that these fellows will never succeed ! But how they are
    going to succeed is not clear either ! They are very smart picking on their
    opponents but is that enough ? Karl Marx argued that the ” illusory happiness
    provided by religion should be eliminated by putting right the economic conditions
    that caused people to need this illusion to make their lives bearable “. Is the JVP
    trying to put it right by presenting Sangha , Kurukkal , Catholic Priests and
    Moulavis in the front row of their every meeting ? My view on this kind of
    approach that might lead to ” Front row now and step by step kick out later ” won’t
    be acceptable ! Best option could be , take them in and seat them in the third row !

    • 1
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      whywhy, You are right that former leaders did not foresee the current disaster but it was not possible to see 25 years ahead as our leader imagines when he was only expected to focus on the budget for 1 year. No one gave him a mandate for 25 years and he rushes west when the family enticed to rob rushes east which too is now unstable. Marx you say argued about religion but finally as an economic beggar lived and died in London which had a religious generosity. Talk alone is useless without building up the nation, legally judging the robbers and recovering the goods in hidden accounts. SB majoritarians must practice what was the enlightenment of the Buddha as nirvana being without rebirth into this world again. Imagine this leader reborn next as a northener. Act in true reality to relieve youth and all citizens.

      • 0
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        Those Sanghas , Kurukkals, Catholic Priests and Moulavis at the JVP meetings are a far, far cry from the religious clergy of Karl Marx’s time.
        These were of predominantly Christian and run by the European aristocracy who believe in the divine rights of the aristocracy (very much like the Ranilian policy in connection with the Rajapaksa policy – Ranil with the ever-failing capitalistic craze over the broken backs of the masses, and Rajapaksas with the wannabe Divine Rights via ancient Buddhist temples and things). No, our clergy are those who have worked the the masses of broken Lankans, and see the imperative of loving and helping them…..religion giving them that fulfillment.

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