5 July, 2022

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The Return Of India: New Realities For The Govt & The TNA

By Dayan Jayatilleka –

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

Something happened. Things just changed. Unnoticed by the Sri Lanka’s cosmopolitan civil society intelligentsia which was engaged in “much wailing and gnashing of teeth” (as the Bible has it), and “how many angels can dance on a pinhead” type disputations (convoluted and obfuscatory, with much lost in translation), the tectonic plates just shifted.

The five post-war years were largely wasted because the South and North, the Sinhalese and Tamil political elites represented by the Government and the TNA adopted political postures that were exceedingly unrealistic but did not appear to be so. The mutual and shared unrealism was possible because of one factor and that factor has just changed; it no longer exists. Thus in an overarching,  parabolic, strategic sense the worst may be over, though in a tactical sense things are bound to get worse, even much worse, before they get better.

Mr Modi’s investiture ceremony and the attendance of eight top level delegations from the region restored South Asia’s status as a sub-system of the world system. Every system or subsystem has a centre and a periphery. In the second term of Dr Manmohan Singh, India as the centre of the South Asian subsystem was deactivated; almost dormant. To put it slightly differently, as a subsystem, South Asia had a de-activated centre and therefore seemed de-centered. It is in this context that actors on the periphery, including non-state actors, operated with an anomalous degree of autochthony, going off the charts, verging on soft anarchy. With Mr Modi, South Asia’s centre has been reasserted.

During the interregnum that was the second term of Dr Manmohan Singh, Sri Lankan ethno-politics were characterised by the following factors: the Sri Lankan Government froze political dialogue with the Tamils. The State proceeded on the basis of unilateralism. The Sinhalese tended to make believe that they had beaten the Tamils, not just the Tigers. The Southern hawks indulged in the fantasy of non-implementation of the 13th amendment. During the same interregnum, the Tamils for their part proceeded to make believe that the State hadn’t decisively won the war and that the political project of Tamil nationalism could remain unaffected by that outcome despite the fact that the Tamil political community had for the most part backed the Tigers.

The Sinhala nationalists in and out of the State were engaged in denial that the Tamils were an ethnic minority whose right to provincial autonomy and self administration within and in accordance with the Sri Lankan constitution, enjoyed a large measure of consensus within the world community. The Tamil nationalists including the TNA fantasized that the world community could be leveraged to recognize qualitatively more than this status and right. The fantasy was that Tamils were not an ethnic minority whose rights included provincial autonomy and self-administration but were a nation which could insist on the right of self determination.

The shared delusion was that there need be no commitment to the 13th amendment as the framework of negotiations. The Government/State thought it could be denied, diluted or dismembered. The Tamil nationalists thought it should not be accepted as the framework because it should and could be qualitatively exceeded.

These aspirations/expectations were possible only within a specific balance of forces, or less charitably, in a near-vacuum: that of a weak centre in India. While t the Sinhala nationalists reassured themselves about the value of a China-Pakistan option, it also caused the Tamil nationalists to overestimate the value of Tamil Nadu and the Tamil Diaspora.

Now that framework has been radically altered. With Mr Modi, India is back, and must be factored in significantly in the strategic calculus of its neighbours. The China-Pakistan option and the Tamil Nadu-Tamil Diaspora-Western option now need recalibrating by the Govt and the TNA.

This is why the Sri Lankan leadership no longer has years to deliver on devolution (as promised to Delhi during the war and just after) but only several months, before the strategic crunch comes. Now the hawks, Sinhala and Tamil, can no longer fly as high as they did, because there is an eagle in the sky above them.

The new reality will not mean an immediate change of behaviour on the part of the Sinhala and Tamil political players, because reality is perceived through the prism of ideology and emotion. There will be resistance, clashes and even a bloody backlash, before the acceptance of reality.

Mr Wigneswaran made a mistake in responding the way he did to President Rajapaksa’s invitation to accompany the latter to New Delhi. Even if one were to concede everything that Mr Wigneswaran said and Mr Sampanthan echoed in his letter to the new Indian PM— and I see much truth in what they’ve said—the public refusal to go was as imprudent as Jayalalitha’s boycott of the investiture. I suspect that the first derived from the second.

Imagine if Mr Wigneswaran had accepted President Rajapaksa’s invitation. As part of the delegation he would have been in the room when Prime Minister Modi brought up the need for the full and speedy implementation of the 13th amendment. In a different atmosphere a new triangular understanding could have been arrived at under Indian auspices and with an Indian guarantee. A page could have been turned.

Whatever is believed in the Tamil Diaspora (and/or on Jaffna campus) the reality is that there is no two-state solution on the table, and therefore the TNA should not behave as if there is or should be. There is a one state solution; not even a one and half state solution which could become a two state solution. The corresponding reality that the power elite has to grasp is that that one state solution has to be of a reformed state; a devolved state.

The strategic reality is that no military anywhere in the world would treat a sensitive ethnic periphery, a borderland, as anything but a top security priority. In a border area which has witnessed a full blown war and the tacit support at the least, of the populace for the secessionist terrorist militia, any military would insist on remaining vigilant. If such a periphery was adjacent to a huge zone of hostile co-ethnics (in this case Tamil Nadu), the strategic concern and vigilant security would be of long duration. In any part of the world, at any time of history, no military would withdraw from a borderland with such a background of a massive organized violent threat to the state, unless it had a guarantee that conditions have been durably created to prevent the re-emergence of such a challenge.

The TNA’s election campaign which invoked Velupillai Prabhakaran did not provide such confidence, to put it mildly. Fast-track and full devolution in the aftermath of that campaign would have doubtless caused legitimate concern among the military as an institution. There will be no withdrawal of the Sri Lankan armed forces from the North in the foreseeable future, but there definitely has to be a negotiated and graduated shrinkage in the footprint of the security forces in that area.

However, the reality on the ground in Sri Lanka is not the only strategic reality that there is. The Sri Lankan state has to realise that while there is certainly a legitimate hard power option, even a pre-emptive one—provided it is surgically targeted— against a Tiger revival, there is no hard power option against unarmed Tamil nationalism or even ultra-nationalism. Not with Big Brother back in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region. The China card just got geo-strategically smaller and the Pakistan card is a provocation. The Sino-Pak option that the hawks in the Sri Lankan State set store by is too small to be an effective deterrent and too large not to provoke a response.

In the new situation that Sri Lanka finds itself in, the State has two options: either it fails to move forward on devolution and finds itself alone in the face of the US-UK offensive in the form of the ‘international inquiry’ buzz saw, or worse, gets itself in an Indo-US pincer. Or it can pivot to South Asia, with its reactivated natural centre, India, and use it as umbrella and shield.  Of course this requires the expeditious and full implementation of the 13th amendment as Mr Modi seems to have explicitly called for.

The Tamils and the TNA have a choice to make too. Tamil Nadu will never be as big as it was politically before Mr Modi came to town; the Tamil Diaspora will never be bigger than a resurgent India, and the West will never be bigger than India in South Asia —just as China will never be bigger than India in South Asia.

What the TNA has to decide on, are politically existential questions: are you in the game or not? Are you the preeminent parliamentary party of the Sri Lankan Tamil community? Are you for the full and early implementation of the 13th amendment and going beyond it incrementally, in terms of the re-negotiation of the concurrent list, or do you stand instead for nothing less than full fledged federalism? Are you keen on convincing a majority of the majority on the island— the Sinhalese— or are they peripheral to your calculus and are you focused instead on the Tamil Diaspora and pan-Tamil sentiment including that of Tamil nadu? Is yours a choice of participation and presence while pressing your legitimate claims, or are you a party of boycotts? Are you part, albeit a radically dissentient and reformist part, of the Sri Lankan democratic mainstream or do you continue to engage in political theatre and rhetoric from the enclave—the ghetto— of Pan-Tamilianism, globalized though that ghetto may be, encompassing as it does significant swathes of the Diaspora?

The Sri Lankan state must not toy with the kind of radical reforms that saw the undoing of the USSR under Gorbachev and Yeltsin. That state and Yugoslavia as well cracked up precisely along the lines of recognised nationhood and self determination, however nominal that recognition was. That is why China, Vietnam and Asian states in general do not make that mistake. Nowhere in Asia is any ‘nation’ or ‘right of national self determination’ recognised within the country’s borders. Montesquieu’s sense of ‘the spirit of the laws’ will explain why federalism goes against the grain in many societies. Though any progressive must stand foursquare with Tom Paine in his polemic against Edmund Burke in defence of the French Revolution, Burke was insightful when he urged that reform must work with the warp and woof of a society rather than against it. This explains why Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga’s ‘union of regions’ package/s not merely failed but resulted in the rapid growth of the JVP and JHU, finally toppling Ranil Wickremesinghe, bringing CBK’s tenure to an undistinguished close and opening space for Mahinda Rajapaksa.

Luckily for Sri Lanka, Mr Modi’s BJP is allergic to the ‘two nation’ theory which partitioned India and even has doubts about Article 370 which accords a special status to Kashmir.

The Sri Lankan state cannot be multi-polar or bi-polar; the island is too small and vulnerable, lacking strategic depth. That is the geopolitical reality.  Sri Lanka fought a Thirty Years War to defeat such bi-polarity as had been established in the North-east. Any project which leads to a bi-polar Sri Lanka with the North as a separate and equal power centre, will trigger an armed response by the State, and if not, by radical non-state actors as in the 1980s. Does anyone want that?

While it may have local autonomy and thus autonomous provincial/regional administrations, no unitary state has more Governments than one. Any push for the abandonment of the unitary state and the recognition of self determination for/of a Tamil nation on Sri Lankan soil will only catalyze an Egyptian-Thai outcome—and it will be popularly endorsed, just as the Egyptian endgame is. This may in turn catalyze external intervention which hives off the Tamil majority North but will consign everyone living in the other two thirds of the island to a protracted Praetorian purgatory which makes the current Rajapaksa government, Mahinda Rajapaksa’s presidency, seem a capacious democratic space which we shall be happy to retrieve!   Does anyone really want two thirds of Sri Lanka to turn into Pakistan before Nawaz Sharif made his comeback or Burma/Myanmar before the military junta decided it was both imperative and safe enough to retrench?

The bottom line is that if the State and the Tamil nationalists remain delusional and unable to manage centre-periphery relations, Mr Modi’s India will feel compelled to balance between the two and nudge, prod or push both sides to a Middle Path and a saddle-point settlement. Both the Sinhala and Tamil political elites have to reckon with the reality of the return of the regional Leviathan, which means leaving behind the priority and preference that each side has for the extra-regional (US-UK, Tamil Diaspora, China, Israel) and the sub-regional (Tamil Nadu, Pakistan).

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Latest comments

  • 18
    2

    Given that you have been relegated as a NGO boy I doubt that the TNA would pay much attention to you.

    • 5
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      As one known to many – as one who is known to have done that much in 2009 in terms of defending MR regime (not srilanken nation) what you – MrDJ could do is to initiate PEOPLE´S AWARENESS PROGRAMMES on devolution of power through already existing PCs. Here, you could better take a lead by organizing TV,RADIO and the like discussions on a regular manner. More you explain/discuss it publicly, better the people are informed; people questioned have been addressed. In that way onlyy you could achieve target voter turnout for a permament solution to the tamil problem. Not only you – your colleague in lanken and foreign universities could play a greater role in this regard. Second step would be any ruling govt to go for implementation. In today´s context, people are far from understanding the facts related to devolution power. Only rumouers spread by WEERAWANSA buruwansa and JHU are making fears among unknown numbers. That they do deliberately so that they could stay in power. Powergreedy politicians should be marginalised from today´s politics. That kind of politicians almost created new problems to the people.

      • 0
        0

        This man Dayan is the Pythia in the Oracle of Delphi in Sri Lanka,

        He knows what is good for Sri Lanka. You disregard it at your own peril, while we the uninformed are in the dark about the future will unravel.

        Note:

        “Dating back to 1400 BC, the Oracle of Delphi was the most important shrine in all Greece, and in theory all Greeks respected its independence. Built around a sacred spring, Delphi was considered to be the omphalos – the center (literally navel) of the world.

        People came from all over Greece and beyond to have their questions about the future answered by the Pythia, the priestess of Apollo. And her answers, usually cryptic, could determine the course of everything from when a farmer planted his seedlings, to when an empire declared war.”

        Source: http://www.pbs.org/empires/thegreeks/background/7_p1.html

    • 2
      2

      You need to define this man as Siri Lankan NGO boy, because people engaged in NGO activities are well respected in civilized world.
      Bill Clinton wrote a book called ‘Giving’ that has detailed analysis of all types of NGO ‘Giving’ programs and how some are very effective and some are not.
      I spent 3 days in Nadunkani in 2012 and I noticed that most of newly built houses have about 10 hens and couple of goats. Bill Clinton’s book explain this sort of successful ‘Giving’ programs.

    • 8
      0

      .
      Not just TNA, even his ‘boss’ MaRa would not pay much attention.

      Poor DJ bent over and get votes for Lanka in 2009, and he got fired.
      Smart GL follows MaRa’s orders and lost all at UNHRC sessions, and still get raise.

      :-)

    • 8
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      DJ – just because you are desperate to be in the same room with Modi, don’t blame Wigneshwaran for not going!
      After all he did not turn down a diract invitation from Modi, but only a second rate invite from Jarapassa. He did the right thing! Quite tired of reading all this Moda Modi analysis!’

      Why don’t you write about the corrupt criminal Mahipala Sirisena and his FAKE FIGHT with the Tobacco mafia to DISTRACT SInhala Modayas from the corruption and crisis in the Health Sector?

      Mahipala Sirisena always features in the Daily Mirorr which is the Government rag on a regular basis is used by this utterly CORRUPT so called Minister of Health distracts Sinhala Modayas with the FAKE TOBACCO MAFIA FIGHT from the fact that there sill is no National Drugs Policy Bill in place and the massive crisis in the Health Sector. SIrisena is in the pay of the Pharmaceutical Corporation mafia and Pathala Champika is right on this.
      Meanwhile, Sirisena’s brother stole land from the Parakarama Samudra Reservation to build a massive ugly hotel called SUDU ARALIYA and because it gets innundated in the rains, the tank is not alloewd to fill properly and so farmers in Pollonaruwa suffer for lack of water!
      DJ please to some political economic analysis of CORRUPTION of the SLFP cabinet of clowns!

      • 1
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        Dinuk

        Not only wiggie not going,jaya also not going is the correct thing to do. Mahinda must have wanted wiggie to come because it would have been a slap in the face for jaya and others like vaiko who were organising protests against his visit.This shows that mahinda thinks wiggie is a modaya and can he sow disunity among tamils easily.

        Jaya not going sends the message to modi to decide between sinhalese and tamils.He can’t have both.If he wants the sinhalese he has to say goodbye to tamilnadu one day.Wonder whether he got the message.

    • 0
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      ”Coup avoidance is most likely when government and army either exhibit the same ethnic bias or are both ethnically balanced” – http://journals.sub.uni-hamburg.de/giga/afsp/article/view/460

    • 1
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      Look who receives whose attention:
      http://army.lk/detailed.php?NewsId=7895

  • 10
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    DJ has to be commended on the swiftness of his responses. Three issues spring to mind. (i) it is impossible to deny the existence of the Tamil nation and this denying its rights to self-determination can only be done by force, which is essentially what DJ is espousing with his ‘permanent military presence’ – not exactly a credible path to reconciliation; (ii) he appeals to the Tamil’s to provide a solution that the Sinhalese will accept (ignoring the fact that the ball is in the sinhalese court right now with simply implementing 13A for a start), but knows full well that this divide can’t be bridged – not without a huge amount of work to undermine the triumphalist, supremacist sinhala ideology which has been pervasive since the end of the war and (iii) it isnt clear that were sri lanka split up the south would remain a despotic basket case – without the ethnic issue to dominate politics, a sinhala nation state has a better chance of internally driven reform as the issues of poor governance and institutions will take focus over the current political obsession with suppressing the tamils.

    • 6
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      alex f

      “this denying its rights to self-determination can only be done by force, which is essentially what DJ is espousing with his ‘permanent military presence”

      What else do you expect from a self confessed long term war monger and a professional war crime denier?

      “he appeals to the Tamil’s to provide a solution that the Sinhalese will accept (ignoring the fact that the ball is in the sinhalese court right now with simply implementing 13A for a start)”

      Let the Tamils grant the Sinhala/Buddhist the authority to carve out their own Aryan Sinhala/Buddhist Ghetto.

  • 17
    3

    The Indian South rejected the Modi wave and voted overwhemly for Amma on anti Sri Lanka platform. The Sri Lanka North rejected Mahinda’s iron grip which hold the rest of Sri Lankan in a tight grip of fear.

    The Tamils on both side of the narrow palkstrait have demonstrated independent thinking and bravery.

    Interesting times ahead

    • 8
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      Rajash

      “The Tamils on both side of the narrow palkstrait have demonstrated independent thinking and bravery.”

      Are you eluding to a Akhand Eelam comprising North East of this island and Tamilnadu?

      Akhand meaning:

      Greater, Continuous,Unbroken, Closed, Monolithic,Intact, Whole, Entire,

      • 2
        0

        NV: I left the interpretation open. However I dont think that is going to happen. Of course Mahinda is dredging off Hambantota to reclaim land for the Phase2 of the Harbour project. He is also dredging in Colombo to reclaim land for the casino city.Will he ever dream of dredging off Talai Mannar to link India and Sri Lanka and link the Indian Tamil Nadu with Sri Lankan Tamil North; for the modern day Rama to come and rescue the Tamil Sita?
        as Jansee has stated my point is that Narendra Modi cannot afford not to take notice of his Drubbing in TN and Mahinda’s drubbing in Tamil North.

        • 1
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          Rajash

          The Hindians want the whole of Sri Lanka as part of their Akhand Bharat. Its going to be Sinhala state of India.

          They would use salami tactics, slice by slice, to merge this island into the subcontinent. Not immediately, not in the next ten years, but it would be completed in the fullness of time.

          A story of monkey judge, two cats and a piece of appa.

          • 2
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            NV should I say wishful thinking:)

    • 10
      1

      Well said Rajash. That one meeting in the shadows of MR may have assuaged the pride of MR but even Modi would have known that the single meeting would be just a “call”. What would be Salman Khurshid thinking in the aftermath of 38 of his colleagues in Tamilnadu even lost their deposits and the same fate awaits the Modi govt if it continues with a recalcitrant attitude towards the Tamil issues. That ALL of the BJP’s allies, save Anbumani, bit the dust. Anbumani and Pon Radhakrishnan may not be so lucky the next time unless the BJP takes a hard look at the Tamilnadu’s position on SL.

  • 6
    2

    One other important factor has been ignored in this article. In the future general elections in UK, Canada, Australia, Norway and some other countries there will be more Tamils contesting for the winning parties or loosing parties. Those who win will be in the Parliament and those who loose will have some input through those who win in their parties. This may create additional pressure on the centre in these countries to focus more on Sri Lanka. Further in countries where there are Tamils, but not in larger numbers such as in US, they may get actively involved with various political parties there by be able to exert pressure to meet their demands.

    • 3
      1

      Park – Absolutely. I was going to add this to my above post. But decided to stick to the Indian elcetion theme and Sri Lanka Tamil Issue.

      Read your post with my above post ….the Global Tamil power is on the rise?

    • 1
      4

      Obviously you are oblivious to the European election results in the UK, France and other European countries where the electorates are decisively rejecting domination by migrant minorities over the indigenous majorities. Tamil migrants in the West will ignore this development at their peril.

      • 0
        0

        Candidly – In the recently concluded European Elctions is for selection of MEPs for the European Parliament ECC.>> In the UK; UKIP a anti European party has for the first time won 24 seats, the largets for any party. The Pro Eropean Liberal Democrat party only won 1 MEP. The anti ECC sentiment is also reflected in all European countries except Germany.

        The voters across Europe have sent a stark message to the ECC. (1)reduce central power of EU Parliament (2)get rid of arcane EU legislations(3)Give back the contorl on certain issues to the countries.

        The reason the voters are fed up with EU is mainly due to the free labour movement.In the case of UK the people are fed up with wave of immigrants coming from former Eastern Europen countries.

        The protest vote is specifically against more and more daily life issues being dictated from ECC.

        • 0
          0

          Not a single party leader in the UK sent a message of support to the May 18th rally in London’s Trafalgar Square mourning the defeat of the Tamil Tigers, nor did London’s mayor. That is in marked contrast to previous years when the Lib-Lab-Con 3 main parties have fallen over themselves to try to win a few hundred votes from supporters of the Tamil Tigers in the UK and their “human right” apologists.

          With the rise of the Ukip party, the era of minorities determining the policies of both the Labour and Conservative parties is well and truly over. Only the Liberal and Green parties still follows that policy, and the Liberals are being wiped out and the Greens are getting nowhere.

          You older generation of Tamil separatists may still be living in the past and be re-fighting your old wars, but the young generation of Tamil-British and Tamil-European have woken up and will not follow you into oblivion because they want to live in the present, not in the past, no matter how much you kid yourselves otherwise.

          • 0
            0

            Candidly>FYI I am not aware of this May18 London rally or for that matter if UK political parties send open messages. I am refering to the EU elections.

            As for the second geneation immigrants , whether Tamil, Sinhala, Muslim, Indian, etc …they look at themselves first as British then as their ancestory country. These young guys are indpendent thinking. So do not try to make sambar out of every thing for the sake of it.

      • 1
        0

        Candidly, European governments are not dictators like Sri Lankan. Even if the Tamils get one seat in the Parliament that is a great achievement as they have moved there in numbers only after 1983. Unlike in Sri Lanka in the European Parliament which is a pillar of democracy, even a single member’s voice is echoed loud and clear. In Sri Lanka the MPs’ are just rubber stamp and will raise their hands for everything that the ruling regime wants. So sorry to tell you friend you are wrong!

  • 1
    3

    good questions for both Sinhalese and Tamil nationalists to ponder. If Eaalam is established will there be peace?

    Or will it be like the partition of India and lead to multinational war with a local giant? Who will stand to gain?

    Is Bangladesh a success story? From all the news coming out of there, I would say no. Is Pakistan a success story? I think that one is a no-brainer.

    So, in this realistic environment would the insistence of a new monolingual nation on the isle of Lanka bring peace to the land and the neighbourhood?

    • 0
      0

      Rahul:

      While no one can be certain what the future portends, the breaking-point both communities have reached leaves with no other choice. Today, there will be no Sinhalese politics without the Tamils issue. How and why do you think MR/GR/BS are still up there in the throne? Without the Tamils issue, their positions and lives will crumble like a pack of cards. And do you think they don’t know about this? Who knows, the Sinhalese themselves will stone them to death.

    • 1
      0

      Rahul, Eelam will never bring peace. What Sri Lanka needs is equal rights to all people with rule and order governing it. Nothing else. Sri Lanka cannot and will not be divided and should not be divided.

  • 4
    0

    Dev

    What is happening in these pages?

    • 3
      0

      ha ha usual Dayan and his “two cents” on “everything” which increasingly seems to be not even worth that !!!

      now the guy seems to be advocating 13+ before he was saying 13 – (without land and police), maybe because he read the what Modi said to MR???

      Poor guy, you must realize that he actually has never had a real job, he just jumped from one camp to the other for pickings !
      (Lest we forget he was a political appointment to the diplomatic corp and not a career diplomat).

  • 1
    1

    If there is one thing that I admire in DJ, it is his will to survive.
    If there is one thing that I marvel about DJ, it is his readiness to bolster up the right of the Sinhalese to rule over Tamils.

    His usual arguments are:

    * The fantasy that Tamils are not an ethnic minority whose rights
    included provincial autonomy and self-administration but are a nation
    which could insist on the right of self determination.

    * The fact that the Tamil political community had for the most part
    backed the Tigers.

    ** DJ is yet state why he does not consider Tamils as a nation of
    people. What criteria of nationhood do Tamils miss out on.

    The camouflage that Tamils are an ethnic minority is thrown in by him
    in order to undermine Tamil rights.

    ** LTTE took to arms for the same political salvation the Tamil
    political community was struggling for for decades.
    Which came first, the Tamil political community or the LTTE?

    DJ, You tell me, who was backing who.

  • 0
    0

    I think PM Modi has also express his willingness see a real devolution of power (may be 13 plus) as you promised to UN in 2009. That’s ok. We are grateful to you for lying at that time on behalf of the govt. to escape from international pressure on us. That is call diplomacy! I remember when you serve as minister in the NE province in the end of 1980’s. It is time to show again your true colors with the devolution. However, I don’t blame you for anything.

  • 1
    6

    Tamils are not part of the BJP government. So they have NO power like before.

    A bunch of losers in SL and India.

    • 0
      0

      The AIADM party of Jayalalitha of Tamilnadu walked away with the third highest majority in the recently concluded Lok Sabha elections, after the BJB and Congress. Even these two parties didn’t get the majority as a regional party AIADM did in and from a particular state. For their dubious and treacherous role, 38 out of 39 of Congress candidates in Tamilnadu lost their deposits. I believe Modi is a practical person who understands the numbers very well. This is bad time for the Rajapakses. Before their balls begins to be squeezed, it will in their best interests that that they act on their promises to the Tamils immediately instead of listening to fools like you.

      • 0
        0

        jansee:don’t take this Fathinma’s rubbish postings seriously. The fact there is no need to be in government ti influence the government.

  • 2
    1

    Article isolate India from the world and talk about India only. This type was the advice given to Royal government and it is now isolated. More than 30 countries help it to carry out the war, only two or three reaming with Lanka. Modi has internal(economical, social, governing to rule ….)problems. Modi has to deal with Pakistan and terrorism. Modi has to deal with intruding China(into Bangladesh, Maldives, Rangoon and other) neighbors. With all these he will have to give a special focus to Lanka.

    Article completely ignore the West, discounting it as only Tamil diaspora. India’s UNSC membership to UN has to be initiated by West. Russia will not do it. So India will not be able to ignore West just because Lanka could not get along with West. Lanka has gazetted to investigate IPKF. This was to make Sonia to vote for Lanka. This is will have no meaning with Modi. He has already thrashed it when he requested Lanka to implement 13A.

    Implementing 13A is not possible. On the day the Tamils get their freedom to file a court cases, 147,000 cases will be filed for kidnapping and killing. Land grab issue are additional. So never land and legal power will be given by Royal government to North and East.

  • 6
    0

    O.K. O.k. Let us see whether 13A will be implemented in full measure, sooner than later. Then we all can judge as to where we all stand!

    Sengodan. M

  • 10
    2

    Dayan,

    The Tamils of Sri Lanka, Chief Minister Wigneswaran and TNA leader Sambanthan have heard what Narendra Miodi , the new Indian PM said, loud and clear, without being part of President Rajapakse’s delegation. The Tamils particularly have heard what they wanted to hear and had to hear, despite the Sri Lankan government statement that tried to bury a whole pumpkin in a small plate of rice, as the down to earth Tamil villager would say!

    The two Tamils in the MR delegation represented the true situation in Sri Lanka and the tokenism that has been practiced since the the war that was bitterly and carelessly fought and in which the LTTE was extra carefully buried.

    The presence of Sajin Vass Gunawardene, a monitor who needs to be monitored and our spineless and worthless External Affairs Minister, who is being monitored by Sajin Vass Gunawardene in and out of Sri Lanka, would have demonstrated to Narendra Modi, the quality of persons who surround our President and his values.

    However, has President MR understood what he heard? His first act on returning was to order the Sampur power project be expedited, in order to placate the economic interests of India! What initiatives has he taken to call a halt to the parallel provincial government project in the north and implement the 13th amendment in full in terms of the constitution and its spirit!

    The Tamils are watching and are apparently ready to standup for their rights non-violently. Where this will lead and to what in the future, is my concern, in the face if the only responses this government is visibly capable- idiocy, subterfuge, intrigue, hypocrisy and the thuggish iron fist.

    Dr. Rajasingham Narendran

  • 10
    0

    DJ,

    Whatever be the motive behind your statement that CM Wigneswaran erred in not piggy backing on the President and gate crashing into an august assembly on a memorable occasion; every Tamil in the country stands with the CM.The world over, they stand robustly by his sagacity. You may repeat a 100 times that an opportunity was let slip, but they reiterate a 1000 times with a 1,000,000 voices in chorus that the correct decision was taken.

    CV Wigneswaran,Chief Minister of the Northern Provincial Council can seek an interview on the strength of a mandate of 80% of the electorate. He will obtain it in his own right and parley on equal terms with the Prime Minister of India. Moral stature brings them on par and elevates them to high ground. Through the hustings one can change designations, but not character. When such is the circumstance, where comes the occasion to sneak into the room of the Indian Prime Minister as an inglorious appendage of the Sri Lankan President?

    The Chief Minister, a reputed former Justice of the Supreme Court, has a sense of occasion and of appropriateness.

    • 1
      0

      Well said, Sivathasan! Unfortunately DJ will not be able to grasp the point!

      Sengodan. M

    • 0
      0

      Hear,Hear Well said,!

  • 5
    0

    MR with 40 years political experience cannot manage and sort out political differences with TNA.

    He hoodwinked Monamohan Singh for 5 years. Now MR is planning to take Modi on a ride. MR thinks he has the backing of China. His perception is he is in the superheaded level of China, Russia, USA, UK and he can manipulate west & India exploiting China card.

    MR’s racist bedfellows Wimal Kammaliwansa and Champika Ranawaka is going to abondon him soon.

    MR should realise he can swell only to the size of fingers. Let’s wait and see how long MR will play this game.

    • 2
      0

      You know UPFA ´s state is comparable to that of a snake collection.
      Small consituent parties as heterogenous coalition members are as highly poisonous as cobras. They can move the society to distruction easily. We know how powerful WW rhetorics could work.
      No secret JHU and NFF are brutal by their thoughts- how many of them could have been in lanken population ?

      In a country, where impunity is becoming worst day to another – what can we expect. All I think deem imperative is to reestablish law and order of the country and sack all these consitutie parties of UPFA. jUST to have them passed only Govt would need 2/3 mandate in parliament. There are laws that govt could amend ALSO with the approval of opposition parties:
      Germany is also having a coalition, but restricting to few PARTIES (3 to this day)- their decisions focusing highly critical issues would not end up to the manner we experience in present day srilanka.

  • 3
    0

    Modi has moved swiftly to get his message through to MR and other regional parties. That too in a spirit of freindship and camaraderie. But make no mistake about his resoluteness and authority, as shown by his election campaign and mandate.

    TN and TNA will have to rest satisfied with what he is offering. A South Asian region of stability, harmony and coexistance.

  • 7
    1

    One thing I agree with. Rajapaksa Incorporated have squandered the golden opportunity for reform in the last five years.

    The Tamils are still alienated from the mainstream by being subject to military administration. Furthermore new pictures of gruesome goings on from the war front keep emerging and will keep the Tamils all over the world in no mood for compromise.

    A diplomatic solution to resolve all Sri Lankan ills is not within sight. The Sinhala Buddhists have since time immemorial proven to be incapable of coexisting with people who are not Sinhala Buddhists.

    DJ may talk the talk but I still feel the best solution is a two state solution. Better still include a third state to provide safe haven to the hapless Muslims. Modi or no Modi the way we go about doing things such a solution seems inevitable.

    • 0
      0

      “A diplomatic solution to resolve all Sri Lankan ills is not within sight. The Sinhala Buddhists have since time immemorial proven to be incapable of coexisting with people who are not Sinhala Buddhists.”

      Then why do you find the most properous lot of tamils among the sinhala buddhists?

  • 0
    3

    An excellent analysis!

    We can only hope that sanity prevails among all the parties, so that SL can move forward without useless distractions.

  • 6
    0

    Dayan,

    The Tamils in Sri Lanka, Chief Minister Wigneswaran and TNA leader Sambanthan have heard loud and clear what Prime Minister Narendra Modi had to say and what it means to them, despite the SL government statement on the meeting trying to hide a whole pumpkin a plate of rice, as the Kandiahs and Subramaniams in the Tamil villages would describe the ludicrous effort. There was absolutely no need for Justice Wigneswaran to have been the token presence in the MR-led delgation.

    However, did President MR hear what was said ? What did the token Tamil delegates tell Narendra Modi? Did he talk to them in depth about any issue? What did their presence add to MR’s mission and how did help the Tamils in Sri Lanka?

    I am sure the new Indian PM had a opportunity to see how Sri Lankan politics and diplomacy are conducted from a glance at the delegation. A Prima-Donna President older than Narendra Modi, but groomed to look half his age! A worthless and spineless External Affairs Minister who was being monitored even within the delegation by Sajin Vaas Gunawardene, who himself needs close monitoring! The two Tamil delegates, who are the penultimate stooges, whose credentials are well known to the Indian government!

    What did our President do after his return from India? he ordered the Sampur power project be expedited to please the business interests of India! Did he order that the 13th amendment be implemented in full in both letter and spirit? The Sri Lankan government will now let loose its brigade of carnivores to bark against the 13th amendment and the devolution exercise. It will use every trick it has mastered to mislead, prevaricate, confuse, confound and silence the Tamils. More ‘Gopis’ will be found and the security threat will be blown out of proportion and the military sledge hammer brought into greater play.

    In the circumstances where the Tamils in the north are beginning to show some spunk to protest, I wonder where we are heading as a country? A stupid government combined with mischief makers and the stupid die-hards among the Tamils, may prove to be a explosive concoction. The Tamil population with mundane life-related and genuine political grievances will once again pay the price for the rabies that afflicts others.

    Justice Wigneswaran has right in refusing to be a token and insisting that what is right being done here at home. Narendran Modi can only lend a helping hand, while we try to solve problems ourselves. However, ‘Parangiyawa Kotte Geniche'( referring to how the early Portuguese visitors were taken to Kotte from Colombo port by a very circuitous route to meet the KIng) tactic by the government definitely will not work against the combination of street fighter cum Karma Yogi that is Narendra Modi.

    Dr.Rajasingham Narendran

  • 1
    5

    Well, the pundits say understand the problem before working out a solution. Takes a current narrative for example. The following except appears in the “Indian Economic Times” editorial.

    “give the country’s beleaguered Tamil minority a modicum of political empowerment and agency after a long, bitter history of oppression, revolt and defeat. “

    This seems to be quietly accepted narrative emerging from the menial looking, reasonable sounding TNA. The brash “Sinhala Buddhist” Mahinda Rajapaske is considered the “oppressor”.

    Accept the perception in reality is diametrically opposite. The case for “oppression” and the “oppressor” is based on a deluge of misinformation and falsehoods.

    Take for example the letter from TNA Sambandan to Modi. In one sentence he alludes to Hindu Temples being destroyed by Sinhala Buddhists.

    Anyone who live in Colombo knows Hindus follow their rituals without any hindrance. This is no longer Macheelli when these section of Tamil continuously and habitually spread lies to demonise the Sinhala people.

    The anatomy of a Tamil grievance can be seen from something that is being build up right this moment. Apparently the army has “land grabbing” lands from Tamils in Kilinochi. It turns out no one has produced a a title to the land even though many are claiming ownership.

    This “Tamil grievance” will be slowly built into a large calamity where the world think Tamils are constantly harassed by Sinhala people when its blatantly false.

    So ideally the narrative should read;

    “give the country’s Jaffna Tamil minority in the north a modicum of political empowerment and agency after a long, bitter history of revolt and defeat. “

    The solution needs to be derived from this but not the other.

    • 1
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      I feel sorry to hear your cring.

      I do not know why you have to take blame of the world; why you have neutralize the Tamils when they demonize Sinhalese: why do you have to do anything at all if you are not so greedy to occupy their land. Jaffna was ruled by Tamils before the Europeans come to the Island. Kandy was ruled by Tamils before Europeans come to the land. You were not able to rule Tamils. This time Europeans captured the Kingdoms and hand it over to you. You think is like eating a cake ruling the race that ruled you in Kandy. Well Buddha teaching may give you the an answer for you if read it. You suffering is that some thing that you are earning by your greed.

      • 0
        0

        Malla aran’s fantasies….

  • 1
    2

    A good analysis from Dayan Jayatilleke who looks at the reality now and what possibly can happen under different circumstances. He need not be derided as some wont to do, but rather view the whole picture and criticize only what he says.

    I do not think Wignesweran was wrong to refuse Rajapaksa’s invitation. Nothing much would have transpired even if he did go. It was not possible for him to go since Rajapaaksa’s deviousness and lack of principle has made him lack credibility. Past experience shows that Rajapaksa was merely being political and was not displaying magnanimity. Unlike so many others there was no need for Wignesweran to “strengthen Rajapaksa’s hand”.

    However, Wignesweran and the TNA must give up the policy of getting external actors to play a strategic or tactical role. Instead he must initiate a public dialogue with the Sinhala people of the South, even by-passing the governing party. Also get the publicly announced acceptance of the TNA policies by the UNP, JVP, SLMC and even JHU. There is still great mistrust in the South that devolution of power will lead to separation. This mistrust must be dispelled. When external parties such as Tanil Nadu, U.S., U.K., Canada, Norway, are used to pressure Sri Lanka, the Sinhala people gang up against devolution. This is the reality. We also need to realize another reality. An externally or internally enforced act of separation will be at a tremendous cost in human lives. Are we so foolish that we do not know how to reconcile differences? Are we subordinating intellect to emotion? This applies not only to the TNA but also to the Government.

    • 4
      0

      Dogs trainers use fine tactics in taming all kind of ill behaving dogs today. Trainer needs to comfort the dog each time after the dog performed it well, satisfying the commands of dog´s trainer; as a reward, dog gets a dried form of meal ball each time apart from the cuddle by the trainer – then the dog becomes very like very loyal, sometimes, spectators of the program would feel- something magically happened to make the change. These trainers are animal psychologists/psychotheapists that have studied the mentalitiy of particular animals. Anyway, going through steps of the program,trainers apply all the tricks that could do on the dogs in order to keep them more loyal to the dog master/owners.

      Why I added the lessions given by dog´s trainers to the forum is to compare the ground reality of UPFA coalition to this day. How tactful the MR has been, he has succeeded to shut up anyone that would raise the high voice against him and his ruling politics today.
      It is no secret, that not many highly educated, politically senior ministers stay today helpless/ being unable go against MR and his oligarchy. This is the reason why we see only MR himself s been taking part in any openings be it a small toilet or standard lab to a school.
      Costs unncessarily being wasted adding to maintenance costs are being fully ignored. The style is more similar to Zimbawian Mugabe/former Gadfafi/former Marcos/former Suhartho/.
      Can anybody see it other way around ? Please add your comments.
      I as a born srilanken (southerner) but living on thewest today – feel
      Vignaswaran has taught a very good lession to all other ministers; not forgetting the minister like Hakeem, SB and others.

  • 5
    0

    Sri Lankan govt thinks India will always be supportive due to Pak factor. Modi is going to have much better relations with Pak. That means SL is no more a strategic partner for them. Modi now wants SL to ‘protect’ the Tamils. We all know what it means. MR can no longer fool the Tamils, India and the World.

  • 3
    0

    DJ,

    My congratulations atleast for your partial wisdom! You know the detonation is article 370. BJP under Modi will want to remove this provision. Already secretary of PMO sent notice to Kashmir and Chief minister of Kashmir rejected saying if such a move is floated, Kashmir will not be part of India. This will definitely make Pakistan a wild elephant and will accelarate its ideological war with India.
    Now Pak will seek out all the help from China, and there will be full fledged conflict, now China will call for Srilanka support. Having already surrendered to China by Rajapaksha, what are your options. A point to explore.

    I in my earnest humble request bothe Sinhalese and Tamils to leave this mesh of vibe called “PIC” ( Pakistan, India, china) This PIC has its own agenda, if you are caught-up in this, both of you have to loose a lot. You talk to eact other and pave a solution that is acceptable to Tamils there.

  • 8
    0

    Dayan! Thank you very much for the unsolicited advice for the Tamils from all corners of the world including to the TNA. We don’t change our hats and colours like the way you do. You represented Sri Lanka during the massacre of Tamils and covered up the blood-bath in the UN with the connivance of a few officials of Indian origin in the UN. You continue to pat yourself at the back and shamelessly claimed the ownership. Don’t you realise that you are in total denial that you have blood in your hands. As I am not a Christian I am unable to quote from bible but I am certain there is guidance for sinners to ask for pardon and confession in secrecy. It is time you go for soul searching before advising TNA which was democratically chosen by the very courageous Tamil ‘People’ of the North & East. Tamils have lost everything but not the sprit that we belong to a very old civilisation and speakers of a language and a value system that is not inferior to any race or religion. Please don’t advice us.

  • 2
    0

    Hi Dayan,

    Not sure if you got that fax from Vigi inviting you to the party at the Jaffana Cricket Grounds. Don’t forget to take your CV.

    They unlike MR will appreciate your talents and if things don’t work out you can always to that back flip that you did with the previous NE Provincial council bringing back to MR some valuable inside news.

    Best of luck.

  • 2
    0

    What this bureaucratic educated Sinhala nationalistic racist is trying to establish that Tamils of North East are not of a nation but simply a minority living in the North and East of this island and this island is the Nation of the Sinhalese. In other words, Tamils are not the traditional inhabitants of this island and Sinhalese are the only traditional inhabitants and they should have the right of self determination, not Tamils.

    Living together as equal rights in a united country is different from living as a minority status is different. There is a huge difference between the above two. Tamils should not fall into the trap of this sort of fake devolution. The danger of 13th amendment is that the Sinhalese will hold the power to throw out democratic rights of the Tamils as happening now. For example, Sinhalese had the democratic power to remove the British Governor in 1972 but Tamils do not have that power. Under the 13th amendment Sinhalese have the power to kill an innocent Tamil and Tamils do not have the power even to go to the courts against the murderer.
    It is the reality of 13th amendment.

  • 1
    2

    Dayan gets a gripe almost every week about our Sinhala South and its great majority of the inhabitant population.

    Lst week it was about not them being up to scratch with education,sophistication and elitism to match Sambandan , Diaspora lead by PM Rudra and his Western alliance.

    This week he is impatient about their lack of speed to give Sambandan the 13 A plus.

    And his impatience seems to have turned into a sort a threat, to imply that the new kid on the block Modi is watching and he will also become impatient if we don’t bend over to the LTTE proxy TNA.

    What our inhabitants want to know is whether they have any say in this 13A,which was rammed down their throats over a quarter century ago.

    What was the population of our fellow Muslims then?

    Where are they going to be settled if Sambandan and the Diaspora get North and the East.

    If the muslims are going to be located in the South from Beruwala to Hambanthota HAMBAN… THOTA doesn’t that need the OK from the inhabitants via a vote or a referendum?.

    And what about the whole generation of our inhabitants who were born after their UNP uncles rammed this separation down their parents throats?.

    Don’t they have the right to decide whether they like to live in a country which is separated along racial lines and protected by different ethnic Police Forces?.

    Is that the way to live as equals and free citizens going forward?.

  • 2
    0

    I think that Modi’s invitation to South Asian leaders and in particular the invitation to Mauritius helps the Eelam project. The best thing that can happen to Tamils is an America that is actively engaged in South Asia and the Indian Ocean; an America that is determined to reset the status quo on the Island. The worst possible thing for Tamils is an America that is inert and content with its already dominant position in global affairs.
     
    Mauritius is not a South Asian country. It is situated south of Diego Garcia. Mauritius actually has a territorial claim to Diego Garcia that is still not resolved. I think an adventurist Modi who wants to establish an Indian version of a Monroe doctrine, is going to feed into the hands of the hawks at the Pentagon. The natural antidote to do an anti-US, nationalist India/Sri Lanka alliance is the Tamil people. Forming a partnership with Tamil Nadu will require too much effort for the US. It will be too confrontational with India, but forming an alliance with NE Tamils of Ceylon requires almost no expense for the US both in terms of blood and treasure.
     
    I have always felt that the Tamil people need the US; that their path to liberation goes through Washington. However, the more anti-US and nationalist India and Sri Lanka become, the closer we get to a situation where the US also needs the Tamils. In that scenario, Eelam isn’t just about all the generations of Tamils that are yet to be born, it is also about all the generations of Americans who are yet to be born.

  • 5
    0

    The latest news is Premier Modi is seriously considering the appointment of a Special Advisor for SL affairs to handle the Tamils issue. And it has been revealed that such a person would be directly reporting to the Premier and will not come under the FM,its secretary or the NSA.

    History will prove one day that the foolish behaviour of MR & his brothers would pave the way for them to dig their own graves. The greatest opportunity for MR to have played a statesman role and be magnanimous in victory just slipped through his fingers because of his greed for power. He and his brothers have forgotten the valuable lessons of history – the Tamils can never be subjugated. He should have known better – as long as the Tamils problem is not solved, there will be no peace in SL. Should it take a foreign leader to remind him of that or a UNHRC investigation, or Cameron to walk in and scold him in front of his own people? What a foolish guy MR has been. He could have attained world leader status – all that now is in ruins.

    From now on he does not have the controls despite his dream and misgivings of living in the pomp. The harder his head gets, the closer will be the demise of his rule, that’s for sure. I had written earler that an impatient Modi will be a disaster for the Rajapakses. Modi has started investing for his future electoral opportunities and one of it will be Tamilnadu, not SL no matter how many Sampoor like projects MR can approve.

    • 0
      0

      Yes, I too come to know similar update, let us see. I heard this task was entrusted on Sushma specially.

  • 3
    1

    President lied to UN Sec Gen on devolution of power based on 13 amendment ..
    then the Dr Manmohan Singh…on 13+….HE HAS LOST HIS CREDIBILITY

    The President wanted Mr.Wigneswaran only to stand besides him in the
    presence of Mr Modi….to mock the UN investigations..

    Good that Mr Wigneswaran rejected the request …

    However ..Dr Jayatilleka has clearly shown that Mr. Modi is no longer a
    petty politician to change Policies of India….he had been denied entry to
    US since 2002 yet he stands with the UN resolution to investigate on war Crimes…

    because.Mr Modi is India

  • 2
    0

    Dayan,

    Okay so what you have to remember is that 13th amendment itself will sink the ruling power. Always does.

    Do you want revolution? nobody does, so you need to put on devoluion ni the existing provincial councils both the north and the east. and make them function. The preident can do that without the Sinhalese population taking much notice.

    And then you always have to remember that if you keep being friends with China you will really piss off India, so you have to me listen to me here, just keep it commercial and I know that Indian pokicy since forever has been if you just keep it commercial it is okay. don let them creep to a defense base situation.

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