Another red herring is the comparison of population with land area without taking into account carrying capacity. The North-East is in the dry zone and was before the middle of the 20th century, extremely unhealthy. Tamils living in that region comprised about 18% of the Island’s population in the British Administration’s census of 1824. By the 1901 census, they had progressively declined to14.5%, allowing for emigration from the North-East and the increase of the Island’s population resulting from the import of Indian Tamils into the plan- tations. This was mainly the result of a higher death rate in the dry-zone. Going by the ten year period covered by the 1921 census, although birth rates were fairly uniform, the annual natu- ral increase was typically 14 per 1000 in the largely Sinhalese wet-zone and 6 to 7 per 1000 among Tamils in the dry-zone. Only a few (rev- enue) divisions comprising the prosperous parts of the Jaffna peninsula had lower death rates similar to the wet-zone. Among the Tamils of the Mannar and Trincomalee districts and among Hill Country labour, death rates tended to equal birth rates or were higher. The high death rates for Sinhalese in the dry zone (i.e. Lower Uva) were similar to those for Tamils in corresponding areas. Population density is there- fore, an isolated and misleading concept in as- sessing the claims of a people to land.

With the advent of the Mahaveli River diversion scheme, there was a new argument (i.e. see Gunaratne’s For a Sovereign State) that with the North-East getting additional water resources from a huge state investment, the people of those areas cannot claim an exclusive right to settle- ment in newly irrigated lands. By 1983, as we have seen, the Ministry of Mahaveli and Lands was getting set for a huge push to establish Sin- halese settlements in the North-East. But the reality was that the Mahaveli Plan was largely a sales document. Apart from the North Central Province, it shows several areas in the north- west, north-east and east as potential beneficia- ries – thus making it look attractive to donors.

However, all schemes in this country have run short of water, leaving tail-enders in the lurch. Water is lost by dams silting up, changes in rainfall and by the water demands of politically influential encroachers. Leaders of the DUNF which broke away from the UNP, including Gamini Dissanayake and Lalith Athulathmudali, had discussions with the TULF before the latter’s death in April 1993. On the question of colonisation, they assured the TULF leaders that it was no longer an issue. There was no water for the Mahaveli scheme to go much further than it had. Had Gunaratne and his friends settled a large number of Sinhalese in the Yan Oya basin, there was no prospect of their farming with Mahaveli water. They would have been given shot guns and paid to do home guard duty, protecting the local army camp. This was the fate of settlers in System L – Weli Oya (see 14.3).

To be continued..

*From Rajan Hoole‘s “Sri Lanka: Arrogance of Power  – Myth, Decadence and Murder”. Thanks to Rajan for giving us permission to republish. To read earlier parts click here