By Kumar David –

Prof. Kumar David

As a citizen of the world, I am inclined to endorse Samuel Johnson’s pungent quip, “Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel”. (His biographer James Boswell says that he made the remark on 7 April 1775). We also know that nationalism spurs nations to achievements urged by national pride or by puffed-up folly – take your choice. I have seen many an English chest swell at Portsmouth harbour at the sight of Nelson’s flagship, The Victory, presenting his signal to the fleet, “England expects that every man will do his duty”, first hoisted at Cape Trafalgar.

Horatio Nelson died at Trafalgar but established the Royal Navy’s supremacy (“Britannia Rule the Waves” and stuff like that) for a century and a half, till the US Navy took over as top-dog after the battles of the Pacific Theatre in June 1942. He was a contentious figure and defied orders in pursuit of his own arrogant choices. His attitude to slavery was known to be quite reactionary.

But why go so far: Doesn’t Dutugemunu’s name swell every Sinhala heart when two thousand years ago (the battle of Vijithapura was in 161 BC) he explained to his mother that he was crumpled in bed because of the deep ocean to the south and the Para Dhemalu to the north.

Indeed, all nations are born of foundation myths. The she-wolf that suckled Remus and Romulus the founders of Rome, the Sun God Ra of the hieroglyphics and the Norse origin-gods (Odin and Thor). In the east we have the mythical Jade Emperor whose demesne was suspended between heaven and earth, Li Bang (206-195 BC) founder of the Han Dynasty, and three years older than him was Emperor Quin Shi Tung of Terracotta Army fame (about 210 BC). Yes true; foundation myths are the glue that bind tribes, peoples and nations and clearly serve this purpose. In recent times the Founding Fathers of the USA and chain smoking, whisky sipping Mohamed Ali Jinnah also served their purposes.   

A few have refused to identify with nationalism and particularism. They have been remarkable. Some names readily come to mind. Chronologically: Gautama, his near contemporary Socrates, Plato-Aristotle and that lot, in my view Shakespeare, of course Marx, perhaps Tolstoy and Chairman Mao (“The Chinese People have stood up” is not nationalism, it’s a historical observation).

The downside of tribalism-nationalism is war and boundless destruction. Tribes coveted the lands and rivers of their neighbours. The Great Imperialist War (WW1) was fought for King & Country where the peoples of Europe and its colonies hurled themselves at each other’s throats in senseless slaughter. In recent times America has been drawn into a Thucydides Trap of its own making. (Thucydides, a Greek historian, wrote how an established power – Sparta – felt compelled forcibly halt the ascent of a rising power, Athens). Will America, to halt the rise of China, throw its mighty military into the job? Maybe.

The Modern World

The last two years have been astonishing: The shocking rise of Marine Le Ren’s far-right in France, the far-right swing right across Western Europe, and the threat that self-admitted rapist, felon and swindler Trump’s ascendency to pole-position poses in the US. Apparently but not actually contradicting this is that Sir Kier chap’s Labour Party’s election victory in UK but at root it’s a revolt against the system. I will recite my usual formula: The post WW-2 growth of global capitalism is drawing to a close till all social relations are transformed. You have heard this from types like me often enough.

I predicted that that the resurgence of Marine Le Pen’s the far-right National Rally would sputter at the crucial second round of French National Assembly election on 30 June 2024. An absolute majority in the 577-member assembly requires 577/2 + 1, that is 289 seats, but the left, the centre-left and President Macron’s centre-right did all they could to block the National Rally by entering into what in Lanka we call a no-contest-pact. Le Pen was kept at bay. The Left Front eventually secured 182 seats, Macron’s Centre Right Balock 168 and the far-right National Rally was pushed to third place with only 143 seats in the Assembly. The left, the centre and the right are each well short of a governing majority and this means France is loaded with the nightmare scenario of unstable government or a succession of unstable governments. The President will be forced to govern with a succession of assembly-majorities that are not the same wavelength as he is. We are in for a period of instability in France. Nevertheless Franco-German relations are the pivot of European politics and I suppose the German’s are grateful for the defeat of the far-right in France.

The handsome victory of reformist Masoud Pezeshkian in Iran’s presidential election in July 2024, and his promise to pursue a more open policy points in the same direction. My reading is that Pezeshkian will be more accommodating of Chinese and Russian influence and point Iran, strategically, in a different direction. Good!

Vide Lanka: what these global trends signal

Let us turn to prosaic concerns that worry the electorate. The immediate anxiety everywhere, Lanka and elsewhere, is costs, inflation, putting food on the table, paying kids’ school expenses and so on. What are called economic issues, whether in East, West, America, Europe or Lanka. (This is the same as my grandiose formula that the period of expansion of global capitalism, the post WW-2 boom, is kaput).

“What is to be done” not by politicians and other sorts of crooks but by society? Obviously, we as a nation have to trim our sails and cut our costs. Lanka has been living beyond its means, I believe that is universally agreed and the debate is about how to reign it in. Is it necessary to take cognisance of IMF views and make an effort to take advantage of the billions of dollars promised if we play ball, and to loosen the grip of bond holders, that is global capitalists who have a strangle-hold on Treasury Bonds. It is also necessary to talk to Chinese companies, co-owners of huge projects (white elephants) like Mattala and the Colombo Port City special economic zone. If Ranil is to be believed, some of these initiatives are making progress. Sajith and Mahinda are basically pro-business and I expect them to play ball.

Nobody can object to throwing SriLankan Airlines on the scrap heap; compensation will have to be paid to some employees but that’s peanuts compared to the present endless haemorrhaging. What does a small country like Lanka need a national airline for? Better declare an open skies policy and maximise our returns on tourism and minimise abuses by President’s (Mahinda was the grandaddy of abuse) and corrupt politicians (nearly all in nearly all parties). It is utter chaos and confusion; the impending electoral battles will be fought in this mire.

The NPP needs to develop its programme in economics, energy, international affairs and the different branches of technology. The outcome of the elections are dicey, it’s the long-term thinking that is vital.