By Ajith Rajapaksa –

Ajith Rajapaksa

When Sri Lanka declared bankruptcy, everyone feared a massive shortage of essential goods such as food, petrol, gas, and medicine. They also expected the rupee to plummet, the banking system to collapse, and a situation where people would riot. However, compared to other bankrupt countries, Sri Lanka did not reach such a dire state. Though people faced significant hardships, the situation was not as bad as anticipated.

Next, attention turned to the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) programs and debt restructuring. Initially, many opposed these programs, offering various criticisms and suggesting alternatives. However, none of these alternatives seemed viable or implementable within our global and regional realities. Now, both main opposition parties, the National People’s Power (NPP) and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB), have shown implicit support for Ranil Wickremesinghe‘s government’s economic plan. Though they have made some criticisms, they have not launched significant protests against it or tried to mobilize the public. This indicates a tacit acceptance of Wickremesinghe’s policies.

The challenges for all groups aspiring for power in the upcoming elections are substantial. They must address immediate challenges such as:

* Increasing domestic production, raising national income, and managing expenses.

* Providing incentives to revive the collapsed economy.

* Offering relief to the majority of people suffering from economic pressure.

* Increasing export income and strengthening dollar reserves through foreign investments.

* Restructuring loss-making institutions to make them efficient and profitable.

* Stopping corruption and preventing tax evasion.

* Managing projects proposed by India in a way that is beneficial to Sri Lanka.

* Formulating an independent foreign policy, taking into account India’s security concerns.

* Ensuring justice for the Tamil and Muslim populations in the North and East.

Additionally, creating a new constitution to abolish the executive presidential system, eliminating the preferential voting system, and democratizing the state are essential. Cutting down on unsustainable defence expenditures and reallocating those funds to essential services, decentralizing power, fostering national and religious harmony, and ensuring justice for victims are also crucial.

All presidential candidates must present their views on these issues ahead of the upcoming presidential election. It is the public’s responsibility to scrutinize these proposals and vote accordingly.

Whichever party comes to power will need to prioritize economic issues. Since we will soon have to start repaying debts, earning dollars is essential. Reducing our dollar expenditures is equally important to avoid another bankruptcy. In recent weeks, workers in almost every sector have started union actions to increase their salaries and benefits. Although these demands are justifiable, a heavily indebted country cannot afford to provide these benefits easily. Despite politicians promising various relief measures during election times, it is a significant challenge to fulfill them. Politicians must clearly explain how they will finance these promises; otherwise, there is a risk of a significant conflict between the government and the people in the future. Such a scenario could lead to a government resorting to more oppressive measures, creating a dangerous situation.

President Ranil Wickremesinghe recently clarified his future plans. He aims to undertake various projects with India, such as solar and wind power projects, establishing an electrical grid connection between the two countries, developing renewable energy on three islands in the North, expanding the Kankesanthurai harbor, improving Palali airport, involving India in managing airports including Katunayake, developing the Trincomalee harbor, establishing investment and tourist zones, building new oil refineries in the North-East, laying an underwater pipeline for oil transport from Trincomalee to Nagapattinam, constructing a land link between India and Sri Lanka, and collaborating with the Amul company to develop dairy production in Sri Lanka. These plans include creating new institutions such as an Economic Commission, an Investment Commission, Productivity Commission, and an International Trade Office.

This indicates that the President is trying to elevate Sri Lanka’s economy by partnering with India. The Samagi Jana Balawegaya proposes a similar plan, emphasizing the importance of connecting with India’s rapidly growing economy. They also suggest renegotiating the IMF program to incorporate more relief measures for the people while taxing the wealthier more heavily. However, there is little difference between the economic policies of the President and the Samagi Jana Balawegaya. Even opposition figures like Champika Ranawaka have not strongly criticized the President’s plan, indicating that he cannot implement these projects alone and needs a capable team.

The other major opposition party, the National People’s Power, has yet to present a cohesive plan. Their primary focus is on stopping corruption and fraud, which, while appealing to voters, does not address the complex economic crisis. They must present a comprehensive economic plan, especially explaining how they will finance their promised relief measures. Simply asking people to trust them is insufficient. Otherwise, they could face a fate similar to the Greek leftists who came to power with unfulfilled promises.

No matter who wins, ignoring India is not an option. Working with China or other powers without considering India could lead to instability, making it easy for the American camp led by India to destabilize Sri Lanka. Most of our exports go to the West, and in times of desperation, we have relied on neighbours like India and Bangladesh. Therefore, we must navigate this reality carefully and strategically.

How can Sri Lanka benefit from India’s significant development? How can Indian investments be used for Sri Lanka’s prosperity? Can Sri Lanka maintain its independence while partnering with India as equals? These are the challenging questions we face. Even those who aspire to socialism must understand that implementing such a radical agenda is only possible through regional or global political shifts. Both socialism and capitalism exist within a global system, and a small island emerging from bankruptcy cannot stand alone.

Globally, powerful countries exert influence over others, so that threat remains. However, the growing democratic forces in India are a positive sign. Prime Minister Modi’s nationalist and divisive agenda faces opposition, especially from the southern Indian population, who are standing up against it. In terms of basic needs such as health, education, and economic opportunities, southern India is far ahead. Therefore, Sri Lanka can look to southern India as a model and collaborate with them.

We should view this moment as an opportunity rather than a challenge, working together with our neighbours and leveraging regional cooperation to navigate this complex reality.