By Lionel Bopage –

Dr. Lionel Bopage

Part one of five

The victory of National People’s Power (Jathika Jana Balawegaya – NPP) at the recent presidential election in Sri Lanka has changed the political landscape of the country. It has given rise to the expectation of a novel and fundamentally different approach towards governance. The electorate expects the government and the state to move away from an autocratic, nepotistic, and militaristic approach, which was the central demand of the “Aragalaya” movement. One of the key themes of the NPP campaign was the fight against corruption, wastage, and mismanagement of resources, which was also a theme that fuelled the “Aragalaya” campaign.

The newly elected President comrade Anura Kumara Dissanayake dissolved parliament hoping that most people of Sri Lanka will give him and his coalition a mandate for fundamental change on how politics is practiced in the country. There is a strong expectation that the NPP will move Sri Lanka from a crisis affected, debt-ridden one, to a country with a more stable and equitable society. To achieve these objectives, the country needs to realise certain short-term and long-term goals.

The NPP advocated for the abolition of the executive presidency by adopting a new constitution in the forthcoming Parliament and also pledged to democratise the state. The other progressive force that contested the presidential election was the Jana Aragala Sandhaanaya (People’s Struggle Alliance – PSA). There was a fundamental difference between their campaign themes in that the NPP pledged to renegotiate the International Monetary Fund (IMF) debt restructuring package while the PSA wished to entirely repeal the whole agreement. Yet, the main social mobilisation against the Wickremasinghe presidency and the system of governance was with the NPP. Many believed the PSA candidate should have not contested against the NPP or at least should have withdrawn from the election at the last moment, in support of the NPP candidate.

Parliamentary election

The parliamentary election will be held on Nov 14. Despite many predictions by various organisations and individuals critical of the new President and the NPP, peace has prevailed during the four weeks since the presidential elections. Many opponents expected violent incidents, people requeuing for fuel and food, the depreciation of the Rupee against the Dollar and the country being isolated in the international arena. None of this has happened so far.

The momentum and speed for change will depend on many factors, but in main, on the pro-people measures the NPP interim government will be willing to take during the pre-parliamentary election period, and how those measures will be perceived by the fragmented communities of the country. This will occur in an environment of many manipulations attempted by the covert and overt forces including the scare mongering, mudslinging, and disinformation campaigns conducted by the opponents of the NPP. The NPP’s election manifesto does not point towards building a socialist society. It is a social-democratic manifesto.

While strengthening the social benefits provided to the vulnerable, the NPP has pledged to build an economy predicated on production; buttressed with export orientation and competitiveness. Under these circumstances, many believe that it will be advantageous for the NPP to be expedient. However, as happens in any left mobilisation during a period of social transformation, the NPP has expanded its base of support during the last three years.

Most of the new voters and activists of the NPP are comprised of disillusioned voters who had voted for the previous corrupt, inefficient, and ineffective regimes. Prior to the presidential elections, the NPP cadre base would have been a small one. So, the victorious NPP to move forward, it will have to a large extent rely on those new members and activists and also on the existing governmental bureaucracy. The international experiences during many similar social transformations show why some of those failed. It was because they had to mostly rely on such persona, who have not been tested in realpolitik and had not been aware and cautious of the unforeseen situations that may arise.

In this sense, the victory at the presidential election will be subject to a huge challenge by what happens at the parliamentary election. It will be a period during which the NPP will have to be overly cautious, practically testing out in the field of politics all those who have joined their ranks anew. To expect miracles under such circumstances is a pipe dream, largely imagined by armchair revolutionaries.

However, the final successful outcome of “system change” will depend on the active and dynamic participation of civil society. For successful system change to occur democratic social movements and inclusive discussion need to be encouraged and strengthened. Only a dynamic civil society can keep a government to its pledges on responsibility, accountability, transparency, and inclusivity.

Presidential election and the future

Despite the outcome at the presidential election, global developments do not provide a conducive environment for Sri Lanka to easily move ahead without confronting many challenges like the escalating Middle Eastern conflict, the Russo-Ukrainian War, and growing geo-political tensions in the Korean peninsula, the Taiwan strait, the Indian sub-continent and elsewhere. These geopolitical challenges will affect foreign exchange inflows to the country due to the reduction of remittances, increased expenditure on imports such as fuel and food etc. According to the Central Bank, the increasing import demand, and the relaxation of both the monetary policy and restrictions on imports may exert pressure on the appreciating rupee unless arrangements are made to compensate with increased long term foreign direct investment inflows.

Many in the old ruling elites who had devastated Sri Lanka socially, economically, and politically have seemingly dropped out of the political landscape; however, unfortunately, this might be temporary. Despite their retreat, national lists of major opposition groups point to some of their prominent members being nominated and prioritised to be appointed to parliament. Some of them have openly and directly contributed to fostering a system of political patronage, family bandyism and cronyism. They continue to boast that they will be elected to the next parliament, thus allowing them to reactivate their ruinous political agendas. Despite such predictions, issues appear to have flared up in their ranks. Still constituencies need to be more aware of their candidates and be cautious whom they would be electing to the new parliament.