By R Hariharan –

Col. (retd) R.Hariharan

During the month of March, political parties continued with what they do best: politicking over electing the next president. Basil Rajapaksa, chief of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), flew home from the US in time to muddy the political waters by proposing a parliamentary poll before the presidential election. President Ranil Wickremesinghe appeared firm on holding the presidential election on time as the parliamentary election could be held only after the IMF economic recovery plan is completed, hopefully by July. The Election Commission has confirmed the presidential election will be conducted on due date i.e. Sept-Oct 2024.

The Institute of Health Policy Opinion Tracker February 2024 forecast continues to find the National People’s Power (NPP) chief Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) leading with 53 percent of people in favour. The other frontline hopeful Sajith Premadasa of the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) clocked 34 percent in favour. President Wickremesinghe of the United National Party (UNP) could muster a measly 6 percent support in the forecast. However, Labour Minister Manusha Nanayakkara says Wickremesinghe will contest as an independent candidate. He will be backed by a broad alliance on a common platform “where people representing all parties, ethnicities and religions as well as people with diverse backgrounds come together” can elect him as president. SLPP has not made up its mind on the presidential candidate; it scored only 7 percent support in the forecast.

Sri Lanka’s coalition politics can queer election forecasts. But the Colombo diplomatic community seem to go by the psephologist’s reckoning. Many of them met AKD, perhaps to understand him and his party’s stand on various national and international issues. AKD has also met the IMF representatives indicating his heightened confidence in winning the presidential poll. This is perhaps reinforced by the large crowds that turn up at his meetings. India came out smiling if we go by AKD’s positive comments after his visit to India after receiving an official invitation. His overseas tours included Canada and UK where Sri Lanka political parties usually seek Diaspora’s financial support for election.

Can AKD who has a leftwing agenda laced with Sinhala nationalism, rise above that to lead the nation? At least he appears to be making an effort. But is AKD ready to handle some of the vexing issues confronting Sri Lanka for long like implementing 13th amendment in full or the vexing question of the forcibly disappeared? Of course, one can add a few more things from the NPP agenda like rewriting the constitution to abolish executive presidency and electoral reforms. Mainstream political parties have been paying a lot of lip service to these issues, without substantive action. Can he make a difference?

His tour of Tamil areas was perhaps to “feel the pulse” of the people. It is a task that is daunting even for the Tamil polity, confused about its end goals. It is dominated by Tamil leaders spending their time debating the past. They are still discussing who was the torch bearer of Tamil nationalism: SJC or VP. This was amply demonstrated by the newly elected ITAK leader Siridharan after his election; he preferred to pay homage to the martyrs memorial of LTTE, though Tamil Tigers had killed a few of the top leaders of Tamil nationalism.

AKD has claimed the ownership of Aragalaya, the spontaneous uprising of the people against Rajapaksas in 2022. His claim may not be wholly true and its articulation might have been subdued in recent times. But the Aragalaya has triggered renewed interest among the people on the need for competent corruption-free political leadership to safeguard democracy. This is borne out by the Centre for Policy Alternatives (CPA)’s opinion survey “Confidence in Democratic Governance Index. Topline Report” of March 2024. According to the report, 94-95 percent of the 1350 respondents agreed with the following simple requirements for the political class: a. All politicians should be audited and all their unaccounted wealth should be confiscated; b. Elections should be held on time; c. All politicians including the president, should disclose their assets; d. Those responsible for the economic crisis must be held accountable. Can AKD live up to their expectations for a corruption free, competent government?

Learning from incompetent presidents

Fortunately for AKD, two former presidents – Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena – whose tenures were marked by incompetency and misgovernance offer case studies on how a president should not to conduct himself. AKD would do well to go through these case studies; if and when he is elected, it can help him to deliver the essentials for corruption-free good governance. They are offered in a nutshell.

Gotabaya’s ‘The Conspiracy’

During the month, Gotabaya Rajapaksa published the book “The Conspiracy ” – his version of the foreign conspiracy behind his ouster after the Aragalaya uprising overwhelmed the government. Unfortunately, I have not read the book; however, a cross section of the analyses of the book give some insights into how Gotabaya sees his failure as a president.

Here are some quotes from the book, courtesy Dr Dayan Jayatilleka’s article from an ideological perspective on Gotabaya’s book.

Gotabaya finds Aragalaya “being fundamentally, an anti-Sinhalese and anti-Buddhist enterprise from the beginning to the end.” (p 172). Other gems from the book written with a prejudiced mind are: “…One of the reasons why I was elected President was because of the feeling that the Sinhalese had lost their rightful place in their own country…The Sinhalese and especially the Sinhala Buddhists are now once again on the back foot.” (Postscript, pp 169-177). Gotabaya’s Theravada paranoia clouds the fact people voted for him because he was seen as an architect who defeated the LTTE and put an end to Tamil separatism.

Sirisena’s wild accusation against India

A week before the fifth anniversary of the infamous Easter Sunday attacks which was carried out under his watch, former President Maithripala Sirisena made an extraordinary accusation that India was behind the Easter Sunday massacres. According to The Sunday Times which carried the story, the former president claimed that an Indian diplomat has not only “confessed to him about the attack but also the reason. It was because Sri Lanka has not been considerate in giving India any projects.”

The Easter Sunday attacks killed 247 innocent people and more than 500 others were injured. It was also one of the high points of the incompetence and callousness of President Sirisena’s tenure. He failed to act upon a warning the impending attack received from an Indian intelligence agency ten days in advance. The agency had also warned of the impending operation even a few hours before the attack.

There had been four lines of inquiries related to the attack; Sirisena had intervened in all of them. A year before the attack, the Terrorism Investigation Division (TID) under DIG Nalaka de Silva had carried out an investigation into the activities of Zahran, chief suspect of Easter Sunday attackers.This was not followed up after de Silva was arrested on alleged attempt to assassinate President Sirisena. A Presidential Inquiry Commission looked into the failure act upon the advance warning from the Indian intelligence presented its report in June 2018. The government acknowledged its failure to act on the report. In a 7-member Parliamentary Select Committee appointed in May 2019 to inquire into the attacks, Chief of National Intelligence Sisira Mendis stated that President Sirisena knew about the warnings of the impending attack. President Sirisena refused to accept the findings and sacked Mendis. Its finds were never implemented though Cardinal Malcom Ranjith had been repeatedly demanding it. Further investigations into the massacre have established the identity of the suicide bombers who operated under Zahran, founder leader of the National Thowheeth Jamaath, which had links with IS terrorists. A Sri Lanka court has asked Sirisena to pay a fine of Rs one million for his negligence in handling the Easter Sunday attacks.

Sirisena’s latest theatrics on the eve of election accusing India raises two basic questions: Whom is he trying to fool with the false accusation? On whose behalf he is accusing India?

*Col R Hariharan, a retired MI specialist on South Asia and terrorism, served as the head of intelligence of the Indian Peace Keeping Force in Sri Lanka 1987-90. He is associated with the Chennai Centre for China Studies. Email: haridirect@gmail.com