By Vipula Wanigasekera –

Dr. Vipula Wanigasekera

A sudden jolt shook the geopolitical landscape in June 2025 when the U.S. launched airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in support of Israel. While the military action—codenamed Operation Midnight Hammer—was framed as a tactical blow to Iran’s nuclear ambitions, its implications extend far beyond the Middle East. For countries like Sri Lanka, the aftershocks may soon be felt across runways, resorts, and revenue reports.

Although Sri Lanka lies far from the actual conflict zones, experience tells us that war—especially when it involves major global powers—tends to ripple across regions. Heightened hostilities between Iran, the U.S., and Israel trigger not only diplomatic alarm bells but also travel advisories, rerouted airspace, and reduced traveler confidence. Even if no direct threat is posed to South Asia, the psychological impact on long-haul travelers is undeniable.

Tourism is particularly sensitive to perception. The current escalation could produce a similar effect, as international travelers may opt to postpone or cancel trips due to fears of instability anywhere in Asia.

Sri Lanka had just begun regaining its momentum post-pandemic and political unrest. Tourist arrivals in 2024 climbed back to $3.17 billion in revenue—more than double that of 2022. But the fragile recovery may stall if airlines face rerouting costs or travel becomes logistically challenging due to airspace issues over the Middle East. Moreover, higher global oil prices—an inevitable outcome if the Strait of Hormuz is threatened—could raise airline fares, making long-haul destinations like Sri Lanka less attractive to budget-conscious tourists.

The ripple effect may also hit investor sentiment. Ongoing projects aimed at upgrading accommodation, airports, and sustainable tourism infrastructure may slow down if future bookings appear uncertain. This comes at a time when the industry needs strong backing to reach its full potential.

Yet, crisis brings opportunity. Sri Lanka can reposition itself strategically to weather the storm. First, by diversifying its source markets: increasing outreach to South Asian and Southeast Asian travelers who are less influenced by Western security narratives. Second, by reinforcing its image as a peaceful, affordable, and geopolitically neutral destination—an island that offers rich culture, healing nature, and authentic experiences, far removed from global conflict zones.

In the short term, a 10–20% drop in Western arrivals in South Asia is likely. But in the medium term, as long-haul travelers recalibrate toward safe, meaningful, and wellness-oriented escapes, Sri Lanka could rise as a top choice. The government and tourism stakeholders will act decisively—by enhancing digital marketing in new regions, simplifying visa processes, and promoting multi-destination packages in collaboration with neighbors like India and the Maldives.

The U.S.–Iran escalation may be global in scale, but for Sri Lanka, it is a crucial reminder: external shocks will come, but a resilient, adaptable tourism strategy can transform vulnerability into opportunity. By embracing this moment, Sri Lanka’s tourism sector can not only survive—but grow stronger.

*Writer is former Diplomat, Head of Tourism Authority and Convention Bureau, currently lecturer in International Business, Youtuber, Meditative and Reiki Healer