25 November, 2020

Blog

A Victory For Maithripala Is Now Probable: Colombo University Researchers

A survey conducted by a research team of the University of Colombo indicates a probable victory for Maithripala Sirisena at the forthcoming Presidential elections.

MaithriThe research team was jointly led by T L Gunaruwan, Senior Lecturer attached to the University of Colombo and D S Jayaweera, an independent policy analyst, currently the Director General of the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority.

We publish below the research report in full;

We, the undersigned, wish to put the record straight regarding a research we two jointly have undertaken to develop an empirical model to analyse the Sri Lankan voter behavior at Presidential elections over the past 10 years with the objective of contributing to the body of social research.

  1. This research team was jointly led by us; T L Gunaruwan, Senior Lecturer attached to the University of Colombo and D S Jayaweera, an independent policy analyst, currently the Director General of the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority.
  2. There is no formal involvement of the University of Colombo or SLTDA in this research, as it is the case with regard to most of our research activities, and any involvement one could imagine is limited to the extent of us being employed at these organisations, and the research team being comprised of several junior researchers and research students attached to the University of Colombo, and our academic and research contact points at several other Universities.
  3. Our interests were purely academic and research in nature, and thus, we never released any of the interim outcomes of our still-ongoing research to media. However, we have recently observed several news items in media pertaining to a “Colombo University survey” on presidential elections, some of which even contained our names, but with some contents we cannot claim ownership.
  4. Even though we cannot exclude the possibility of there being other surveys conducted by other researchers attached to the University of Colombo and other academic and research institutions on this subject, it would be unfair if such are quoted or published without the explicit consent of any such researchers, including us, and more so if the contents are not properly reported so that misleading opinions could be developed in the minds of the readers.
  5. Since we realise the possibility of these numerous reports quoting out of context our research and their various outputs, we thought of putting the record straight by releasing to media the outcomes of our research as it stood at 27th December 2014, while requesting all concerned to avoid using these for any marketing or propaganda purposes. We, however, have no objection of anyone or organisation using these for further research work or for their internal planning and strategic decision making purposes.

T Lalithasiri Gunaruwan, Senior Lecturer (Economics), University of Colombo, and D S Jayaweera, Policy Analyst (Currently the DG/SLTDA)

January 01, 2015

Outcomes of our Research as at Dec 27, 2014 ;

SURVEY ON VOTING PATTERNS – Presidential Election 2015

(Survey conducted by a research team of the University of Colombo)

Sample :

  • Relatively smaller sample (little less than 1000) compared to total population of little over 15 million. Survey forms were collected at convenience, and therefore, district-wise or electorate-wise representative sampling could not be realised. The results have to be perceived having proper understanding of this aspect.
  • Over 80% of the sample were Sinhala Buddhists, and thus this sample has that bias, given that the overall share of Sinhala Buddhist voters is approximately 70% of the total votes.
  • No survey responses were obtained from North (except one respondent from Jaffna, and two from Mullativu), while much larger number of responses were obtained from East, North Central, Western and Southern provinces. Only a few responses were obtained from Central, Uva, Wayamba and Sabaragamuwa Provinces.
  • Sample characteristics indicate that it is overwhelmingly biased towards Mahinda Rajapaksa, as out of those who have cast their votes in the respective elections, over 75% had voted for MR in 2010 and 2005 elections (when his national average stood around 58% in 2010 and just above 50% in 2005).

Results:

  1. Around 20% for the first time voters and nearly 13%-15% of the total respondents are still undecided. This indecision is still substantially high, and means that a lot could still change, particularly through the events and behavior of parties over the next two weeks.
  2. Only 1% of the respondents in the aggregate sample pronounced preference to vote for a third candidate, while nearly 3% would vote for no one. These ratios are 2% and 7%, respectively, with regard to fresh voters. This indicates the likelihood of relatively lesser share of votes polled by any candidate other than the two main contenders, while the cancellation rate also is likely to be relatively low (please note that this percentage is compatible with what was observed at past national elections).
  3. In the face of it, 44% to 39% split between MR and MS in a highly “MR-biased” (as explained in “d” above) sample points at the highly competitive nature of the forthcoming election, where the possibility of MR’s share going below 50% is substantial.
  4. The present survey thus adopted a different approach to examine the trends. The 2015 vote base was divided into “new votes” and “non-new votes”; and the share of votes polled by individual candidates were considered with regard to “new votes”, while the “shifts” away from MR (in 2010) to MS (in 2015) and vice-versa were estimated and applied on to the population with regard to “non-new votes”.
  5. As per the survey results, MR would obtain 38% of the “new-votes” while MS would obtain 33%. The balance would be accounted under votes obtained by other candidates, non-voters, and those who are still undecided.
  6. With regard to “non-new votes”, nearly 28% of those who voted for MR in 2010 would shift towards MS this time and 11% would still be undecided, while 4% of those who voted for Sarath Fonseka in 2010 would shift towards MR in 2015 while 11% would be undecided. It is interesting to note that nearly 30% of those who voted for MR in 2005 Presidential election would deflect towards MS in 2015, and around 9% of those voted for Ranil Wickramasinghe in 2005 would deflect towards MR in the coming election.
  7. Applying the basic survey results to the overall population, and using the 2010 election results as the basis for projections, it could be estimated that the chances are greater for MS to win this election with around 53% of the total valid votes, assuming that the absentee voter ratio stays unchanged at around 25%.
  8. This pattern was cross examined through an “ethnicity based” analysis. This was attempted because the survey sample appeared overwhelmingly “Sinhalese”, and any shift calculated based on such a biased sample would only apply to that particular ethnic electorate. The results indicated the likelihood of MS securing a lead of over 2 lakhs of votes over MR in this electoral block, paving the way for an MS victory with a likely preference for him in Tamil and Muslim electorates. The survey results indicate that MS could secure the required 50% of total valid votes if he manages to get around half of the Tamil and Muslim votes, while MR would require over 60% of the Tamil and Muslim votes if he is to surpass MS in the overall competition and to cross over the crucial 50% threshold.
  9. The results thus indicate the importance for both candidates of their margins secured in the Sinhalese electorate, which accounts for over 112 lakhs or three-fourth of the total number of registered voters. For instance, one lakh of lead lost for MS in the Sinhala electorate than the above indicated survey estimates would necessitate him to secure over 57% of minority votes (compared to nearly 50% required in the case of two lakhs of lead in the Sinhala electorate) for overall election victory.
  10. Based on the survey estimates and a hypothetical 35:65 ratio of minority votes split between MR and MS respectively, the ethnicity specific analysis would yield an overall outcome closer to that projected under (7) above, with nearly 60 lakhs of votes (53%) polled by MS, 50 lakhs (44%) by MR, and 3% going to others.
  11. However, it must be emphasised that nearly 20% of the first time voters, and around 13% of the overall electorate, are still undecided, which could go into either camp over the next two weeks, and could either reinforce or reverse the overall estimates made in this analysis. It is interesting to note that only less than 1% of the overall respondents pronounced interest in constitutional reforms or economic hardships such as high cost of living or unemployment. An overwhelming majority expressing preference for MR was for his war effort, strong leadership against external intervention, national unity and not reverting back to war or separatism, and those preferring MS were largely owing to accountability, transparency and governance issues in the MR rule. It is therefore very clear that the Sinhalese vote base, largely reflected in the sample surveyed, is sensitive to the national issue, and those still undecided among them, even though a majority has not given reasons for their indecision, are prone to tilt towards the camp which assures them of peace and national security. Strategic sail through the next two weeks of campaigning is therefore likely to be crucial for both candidates.

Conclusion

This analysis therefore tends to indicate a probable victory for MS at the forthcoming Presidential elections. However, there is a significant share of undecided voters, which makes the competition still wide open for both parties; and the estimates made in this analysis are likely to be influenced by the decision that will be made by these undecided voters over the next two weeks.

T L Gunaruwan (University of Colombo) and  D S Jayaweera (SLTDA)

Joint Survey Analysts – December 27, 2014

Print Friendly, PDF & Email

Latest comments

  • 2
    42

    Our great king Rajapasa1 will win this election by 52&

    • 13
      1

      who can give answers for these crimes ?

      Modawansa was exposed before the world , well done Sujeewa !

      http://www.asianmirror.lk/videos/120-swf-tubechop-com

      • 7
        3

        Srilal

        Keheliya Rambukwella and Wimal Weerawansa look worried particularly Wimal forced himself a permanent and uncomfortable wry smile.

        Could Maithree give them some sort assurance that their involvement in corruption, their mistakes, stupidity, inefficiency, …. would not be exposed if they were to join the opposition or thereafter.

        • 7
          0

          if MY3 to take Modawansa ,that would be it , it has been reported earlier that Dr Mervin , Toy pistol Mayer were willing to cross over to MY3’s side to extend their support for him , quite rightly MY3 has politely refused their offer , why would MY3 want to spoil his easy victory by taking nincompoops ??

          • 1
            1

            srilal

            “why would MY3 want to spoil his easy victory by taking nincompoops ??”

            All politicians are nincompoop as they are representative sample of the people of the country.

            Though I am not a worrier, I have this nagging concern about party members who have spent entire life time in UNP as part of the party machine working their way up hoping to represent local electorate at local or national level will be sidelined by the party hoppers (cross over cronies) in the next parliamentary or local elections.

            How do you think Ranil and his party should handle this potential moral crisis/(dilemma)?

            • 0
              0

              NV,

              As i have said many a times before , if you want to a have a serious constructive debate , that’s fine , but if you just want to pick & choose certain clauses from a paragraph and then drag on for the sake of argument , you are seriously mistaken , i’m not here to entertain your wild oats , mate . you seem to be in the company of Javi , K.A Sumanasekara ,Ela kolla , Pena Kiyanna type 3rd grade commentators , for your information , i just ignore their comments, so neither do i read nor reply to them .

              • 2
                1

                srilal

                I think you have missed the serious part of my comment. I repeat here:

                Though I am not a worrier, I have this nagging concern about party members who have spent entire life time in UNP as part of the party machine working their way up hoping to represent local electorate at local or national level will be sidelined by the party hoppers (cross over cronies) in the next parliamentary or local elections.

                How do you think Ranil and his party should handle this potential moral crisis/(dilemma)?

                I still believe all politicians are nincompoop as they are representative sample of the people of the country.

    • 1
      1

      Srilal

      Keheliya Rambukwella and Wimal Weerawansa look worried particularly Wimal forced himself a permanent and uncomfortable wry smile.

      Could Maithree give them some sort assurance that their involvement in corruption, their mistakes, stupidity, inefficiency, …. would not be exposed if they were to join the opposition or thereafter.

    • 8
      2

      H velivita

      “Our great king Rajapasa1 will win this election by 52&”

      Even if he polls less than 49%.

    • 0
      1

      The methodology used is highly questionable. The sample was not distributed evenly, district, ethnic, religious wise male to female ratio…. furthermore the it was collected at convenience. This is a highly flawed method if the purpose is to do any analysis.

      Further, the report does not even say how many voters out of the sample were 1st time, breakdown by district.

      It seems that this is a highly suspect survey with very poor academic thinking behind it. It begs the question as to the integrity of the people involved, and the timing of its release, and the use of the title (though denied) as a ‘Colombo University Survey’.

      Whether the director of the Tourism Development Authority is aligned to the former Minister Cross over, Rishad Bathyhudeen is another question.

      Perhaps the professor should stick to ‘Economics’ and not try to do things that he seems to know little about.

    • 0
      1

      what they have not accounted for is the UNP going around now saying don’t vote for MY3. The UNP organiser in my areas is spreading a pamphlet saying vote for the elephant or nothing (aliyanethinam denda epa).

    • 1
      0

      H Velivita,
      There is a limit to your insanity. Why not place the letter “F” in front of word “king” that suits the greatness of you Southern “king”.

    • 0
      0

      SCAM ALERT !- CT EXPLANATION NEEDED

      “This research team was jointly led by us; T L Gunaruwan, Senior Lecturer attached to the University of Colombo and D S Jayaweera, an independent policy analyst, currently the Director General of the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority.”

      Dr D S Jayaweera, the Director General of the Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority has categorically denied any involvement with this bogus “survey”. He claims his nname has been illegally used in this desperate election scam.

      He can be contacted on (+94) 112426914 for verification.

      This is another trick (like the Sangakkara smoke bomb and the Samanalee frat) that boomeranged on Maaru Sira’s dirty tricks campaign.

      Shame!

  • 22
    1

    While I don’t have any problem with their survey outcome (That MS to win), I am not sure whether they have adopted a technically acceptable methodology in carrying out this survey.
    With or without a survey, it is now established that MS will get a clear majority over MR, the corrupt politician who has robbed country’s wealth with his family and other cronies.

    • 4
      0

      T L Gunaruwan (University of Colombo) and D S Jayaweera (SLTDA),

      Thank you for your efforts.

      What you have not accounted for is Fraud and intimidation.Yes the undecided can swing it, but it is cleat that Mahinda Rahapaksa brand has deteriorated due to fraud corruption, lack of law and order and accountability.

      So, information to the voters, is still a key.

      Unfortunately, the Sri Lankan Writers have failed to produce a Comm Sense Pamphlet Sri Lanka 2014 or 2015 despite many requests.

      Getting Sri Lankan writers to poduce a Common sense Phamplet is like herding Cattle( Harak). The make strange noise and say Baeeee. Baeee and Baeee and just stand there.

      http://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/thomas-paine-publishes-common-sense

      On Jan 9, 1776 Thomas Paine Publishes Common Sense Phamplet
      (On Jan 9, 2015 Matripala Sirisena wins the Presidency by the support of Sri Lankans with Common Sense).

      Unfortunately, getting the Sri Lankan writers to produce a Common sense Phamplet is like herding Cattle( Harak). The make strange noise and say Baeeee. Baeee and Baeee and just stand there.

      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_%28pamphlet%29

      Common Sense (pamphlet)

      Common Sense[1] is a pamphlet written by Thomas Paine in 1775–76 that inspired people in the Thirteen Colonies to declare and fight for independence from Great Britain in the summer of 1776. In clear, simple language it explained the advantages of and the need for immediate independence. It was published anonymously on January 10, 1776, at the beginning of the American Revolution and became an immediate sensation. It was sold and distributed widely and read aloud at taverns and meeting places. Washington had it read to all his troops, which at the time had surrounded the British army in Boston. In proportion to the population of the colonies at that time (2.5 million), it had the largest sale and circulation of any book published in American history.[2]

      Common Sense presented the American colonists with an argument for freedom from British rule at a time when the question of whether or not to seek independence was the central issue of the day. Paine wrote and reasoned in a style that common people understood. Forgoing the philosophical and Latin references used by Enlightenment era writers, he structured Common Sense as if it were a sermon, and relied on Biblical references to make his case to the people.[3] He connected independence with common dissenting Protestant beliefs as a means to present a distinctly American political identity.[4] Historian Gordon S. Wood described Common Sense as “the most incendiary and popular pamphlet of the entire revolutionary era”.[5]

  • 2
    3

    “It is therefore very clear that the Sinhalese vote base, largely reflected in the sample surveyed, is sensitive to the national issue”= racist

    • 1
      1

      ditto.. remember that until Sri Lanka resolves it’s underlying communal issue, it will never prosper…let it be MR or MS…Until a leader has the vision for inclusive, equal rights to all citizens SL would remain a banana state… You may satisfy your masters and the “moda” majority but not the educated masses… if there is any one left yet…

  • 1
    1

    MR is definitely winning the PE – very clearly as per results disclosed by computers of the State!! A webnews reveals some Indian cyber experts are being employed in this activity:-

    “They are involved in it with a front that they are upgrading Sri Lanka Telecom’s Peo TV. But, Peo TV technicians say the Indian team has nothing to do with any upgrading work. At Head End, what they actually do is relaying computer data to other locations. This place is strategically located to change computer data. Also, the entire election result communication process is coordinated by SLT, which gives dedicated lines and virtual pin numbers to the election secretariat and other institutions. The district returning officers are sending the results by fax to the elections commissioner. The Indian IT experts are looking into whether they can change the results while being on transit to the elections commissioner.”

    Will the University Teachers Association face the valgar regime, as
    claimed here:- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kwFRgMySYBs or mere
    noise as in the past?

    MR is also planning a disolution of Parliament should he loose, before
    MS swears-in which CJ can delay???? and leave Sri Lanka seeking asylum!!

  • 0
    2

    See how desperate MR is ? pathetic ! natural question is why this buffoon didn’t bother to go to police or before the media earlier ? even if the story is true , no sensible person would take these sort of stories seriously now .

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5inAjt3gmG8

    • 0
      0

      A wedding video, just to get publicity using wrong propaganda like Jarapakseas. Shame on this post.
      Don’t open the YouTube site.

    • 2
      0

      Extremely sorry , here is the correct URL

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWCmi4HtjkU

  • 3
    0

    A bit off point here.

    By and large we Srilankans are not a vindictive Nation.

    If MR loses, the Sirisena establishment will not hound the Rajapaksa Clan. They will be asked to take their money and keep it. The Rajapaksa’s will be able to compete in the hustings at a future date, just as Premadasa Jnr., continues his political work at the UNP.

    Srilanka needs a political reset. A Sirisena victory will be a breath of fresh air.

    Sadly, the great Human Rights protector went rogue, dismantling the judiciary, rule of law, a resemblance of good governance and appealing to the animal in us all.

    We deserve better.

    WE ARE BETTER.

    • 0
      0

      “WE ARE BETTER.”

      Hope springs eternal in the human breast.

      It should be WE ARE THE BEST

      If you aim for the moon only you can land among the stars.

      Or to simplify it to understand more easily,if you aim for the wall only you can hit the toilet bowl without getting your shoes wet.

  • 4
    1

    I find this survey not reliable at all.

    As much as I would want MS to win, the sample (1000) and taken from regions that is not fully representative of the larger population and cannot and will not provide unbiased results. Frankly I find this survey professionally a pathetic exercise.

    One would do well to ignore this.

    • 0
      0

      I agree and besides it looks like Sinhala vote majority is for MR which is not reassuring as we cannot really know how tamils will vote, as they seem to have other concerns outside SL. MS will need to sway more Sinhala votes otherwise he may lose.

    • 1
      0

      Asaipillai

      “I find this survey not reliable at all”

      Yes, to take 1,000 from 10 million voters will be subjective to errors. Beside it is representative, will be subject to errors.

      Another problem may be that people who want Rajapaksa to lose will not divulge their true intentions,,, knowing the thuggery and crimes that are being committed.

      Therefore, the people who survey will not get the true intention of the voters, and will be subject to error,

      My gut feeling is that MS will win, 60/40 or 65/35 if there is no fraud.

      Common Sernse dictates that…

  • 0
    0

    The method of analysis seems perfect, but the sample as admitted is too small!

    Sengodan. M

  • 0
    0

    Didn’t this same Uni predict a land slide in the previous survey?..

    Has the recent mud slide reduce the fortunes of the Holy Alliance for Good Governance without Commissions?..

    I mean our poor natives now realize ,it is the great Armed Forces who liberated the nation from Terrorism , are the ones who came rushing to help the survivors. rescue them and provide shelter. after the recent disaster in the hill country.

    When the Elite . Intelligentsia and the Vellalas with the JHU , cull the Armed Forces by 50 %, who will be there to help the poor and the vulnerable in these natural disasters, which seem to be more frequent in the 21 Century ?..

    • 2
      0

      K.A Sumanasekera

      Before you start condemning Uni please read this link and let me know what do you hypocritically think(?) about seeking Govi/Buddhist match in matrimonial columns of leading news papers:

      http://www.sundaytimes.lk/141228/matrimonial.pdf

      I take it that Govi/Buddhists are also Dalits. If they are then they should go back to their mother country and find compatible partners in Tamil Nadu or Bihar.

      In Thamil Nadu Karunanithy used to pay for Dalit wedding expenses.

  • 0
    0

    I have been following the Sri Lankan politics from a Western European country for a number of years as we get all the news of the ruling regime as well as the opposition. As per my comments to a News Item on 25th November, I estimated as follows : MS – 53.17%; MR – 43.87%; others – 2.96%.

  • 0
    0

    My prediction as per my comment on 25/11/2014 is : MS will get 54.17 ; MR would get 43.87%; others would get 2.96%.

  • 0
    0

    ” …. The results indicated the likelihood of MS securing a lead of over 2 lakhs of votes over MR in this electoral block,…”

    Gives ammunition to the dirty tricks brigade. Sets objectives for “computer jill-marts” and “switching of ballot boxes on the way to the counting centres”.

    They did not take much time to overturn SF’s winning prediction on the day of the voting itself in 2010.

    I find little faith in the system stage managed by MR himself.

  • 0
    0

    Asaipillai

    “Frankly I find this survey professionally a pathetic exercise.”

    Then what do you think of this? ignore?

    Tamil votes in the northeast could decide this election. Here is the 2010 presidential election results

    http://www.infolanka.com/news/election2010.htm

    And here is a forecast.Criticism to improve it most welcome.

    1.Assume that 115000 voters decide to switch from mahinda to maithripala in the colombo district,then maithri will win colombo by a majority of 150000 votes.

    2.If 115000 voters switch from mahinda to maithri in the gampaha district mahinda will win gampaha by 50000 votes.

    3.So the net effect after the cumulative results of colombo and gampaha is maithri leading by 100000 votes.

    4.Now take the other big district of kurunegala.If 90000 voters switch from mahinda to maithri,mahinda will win that district by 75000.

    5.So after these three big districts are polled maithri will be leading by 25000 votes.

    6.Now take kandy district.If 75000 voters decide to switch from mahinda to maithri then maithri will win kandy by 75000 votes.

    7.So after the results in colombo,gampaha,kurunegala and kandy districts is added up,maithri will be leading by 100000 votes with Mahinda winning gampaha and kurunegala districts and maithri winning colombo and kandy districts.

    8.now take kalutara,galle and ratnapura which are medium size districts and assume a switch of 60000 voters from mahinda to maithri in each district then mahinda will still win kalutara by 70000,galle by 55000 and ratnapura by 55000 votes,making a total of 180000 votes.

    9.So after the seven largest districts colombo,gampaha,kurunegala,kandy and kalutara,galle,ratnapura counting is over mahinda would be leading with 80000 votes with maithri only winning colombo and kandy and mahinda gampaha,kurunegala,kalutara,galle and ratnapura.

    10.Now take the small medium districts like kegalle,matara,anuradhapura and badulla and assuming a switch of 45000 votes from mahinda to maitri,then kegalle,matara and anurathapura will be won by mahinda by 30000,50000 and 65000 votes while maithri will win badulla by 50000,giving a net total majority to mahinda from these 4 districts of approximately 100000 votes.

    11.So after the largest 11 districts are counted mahinda will be leading by 180000 votes with maithri winning colombo,kandy and badulla and mahinda the rest.

    12.The balance 11 districts are small ones with some smaller than the others.If we take the largest of them puttalam,hambantota,nuwaraeliya and digamadulla and assume a switch of 35000 from mahinda to maithri,then mahinda will win hambantota by 50000 while maithri will win nuwara eliya by 100000 and digamadulla by 75000 and Puttalam by 5000 and thereby giving him a majority of 130000 from these 4 districts.

    13.If you substract this 130000 votes for maithri from the cumulative 180000 votes for mahinda so far as in point 11, mahinda will be leading maithri by 50000 votes after 15 districts of the 22 are counted,with maithri winning only colombo,kandy,badulla,nuwar eliya,puttalam and digamadulla and mahinda the rest.

    14.Now let us take matale and moneragala.Assuming a switch of 25000 votes,mahinda would yet win matale by 10000 and moneragala by 40000

    15.So the grand total at this stage for mahinda after the count of 17 out of 22 districts would be 100000 majority.

    16.now to pollonaruwa where maithri comes from.Will the home crowd vote for the local fella or mahinda?I probably would think the local.

    17.normally i would have given a swing of 25000 votes from mahinda to maithri,but because this is the local fella probably it would be 35000.Too difficult to call any way and could go either way with only a small negligible margin of victory for either if they win it.

    18.Now coming to the balance 4 districts which are tamil majority batticaloa,trinco,jaffna and vanni.Can they give a majority of more than 100000 votes to maithri to clinch the election for him.

    19.The TNA should easily be able to muster much more than 100000 votes majority for maithri from these 4 districts to give him a comfortable victory by more than 200000 at least.It seems to be a replay of the 2005 election where the tamil votes was the decider but this time instead of ranil losing by 180000 votes,it could be mahinda losing.

    20.Assumption has been of a free and fair election.Computer jilmart and thuggery and intimidation has not been taken into consideration.

  • 0
    0

    Information has surfaced as to how the regime has been rigging the numerous elections held post 2005:

    This is how they do it. They target electorates like Kurunegala, Hambanthota, Matara, Monaragala, Kegalle, Ratnapura and Kalutara which are favourable to them. At the counting centers after the votes have been counted and when they have obtained victory margins over UNP the area political man who wields thug power comes forward and claims the results are wrong and demands a recount. While the recount is in progress the thug politico of the ruling party aided with his gang of thugs begin to bully the opposition by various means like throwing water bottles, abusing, defaming and even physical attacks thus chasing away the opposition from the counting center. After that they do the trick which is, with the connivance of cronies in the counting center, issue a totally doctored result. For example it the original genuine figure was 1500 votes of victory margin for the regime, they make it say 5000 votes margin and discount that figure from the UNP! If the original margin was higher, say 15,000, then they become more ambitious and make it something like 25,000 depending on the on the spot instructions they receive. If the communication signals around the counting centers are to be intercepted these on the spot instructions could be extracted by anyone. They could even arrange a totally premeditated result without much hassle. They do not employ this tactic in areas where the opposition is strong, for example Colombo, Jaffna etc.

    So what is the real impact of such selective rigging? This alters the final outcome in favour of the regime. Had the genuine results were output the winning figures in the favourable areas to the regime would have been offset by the favourable figures of UNP in their strong areas. This would have output a very keenly contested result with definitely better results for UNP. The teledramatized election gimmicks by countless elections of the Rajapakshas could have totally collapsed with the wholesale abortion of their Goebbels election failure theories about RW and UNP.

    So what is the opposition to do this time to prevent it happening again? Never to leave the counting center until the results are transmitted to the relevant election centers whatever threats are presented. They must make suitable preparations to face and thwart such challenges this time.

    I suspect the ongoing strike action by the SLT workers. This could be a ploy to mislead the public and to impose a total blackout on the communication lines around the election period in a bid to rig the election big time. The opposition must be ready with back up power generators and alternative communication links should something unforeseen happens. Better get ready with multitude of communication links, satellite communication, data encryption, simultaneous manual fax transmission and electronic transmission, digital signing technology etc. The must also be a separate, parallel and simultaneous election center operated by the opposition and each result to be telecasted by the official election office must match with the independent opposition election office. Also the results must be telecasted as and when they are received without leaving any room for rigging efforts.

  • 0
    0

    I did a poll among the Daily Mirror readers, after CC Sira’s “reveal all” interview yesterday.

    And here is the result.

    Mahinda 5 CC Sira 0..

    Couldn’t he get even a couple of ticks from the readers, when the whole Colombo Electorate is UNP Elite Anglicans and the Vellalas?.

    Don’t tell me these comments are all from Rajapaksa supporters from the South .

    Because they can’t read Daily Mirror, let alone digest and reply to its contents..in the comments column.. .

    Colombo University must do a at least a phone poll soon among Colombo households who get the DM delivered..

  • 0
    0

    Mr. T L Gunaruwan,
    Excellent job and appreciate your forecast. That said, you should have included little more data from other communities to predict better conclusion. I wonder your buddies in your own department of Economics working for MR’s economic development and policy formulation are reading your election analysis. You know what; He/They (in your department) suppose you are pretty foolish to come to this conclusion. Once, He/They (in your department) said GSP+ and Global Economic Crisis do not impact Sri Lanka at all. He/They also believed Sri Lanka has one of the best Economic Policies in the world. He/They believe still Sri Lanka is an Asia Knowledge Hub. Really? Thus, Sri Lanka will never be unsuccessful from her voyage to support the poor people. Also He/They (in your department) said S.B. Dissanayake is the best Higher Education Minister (ever in Sri Lankan education system) who understands the realities of education in Sri Lanka. Hold on… one more thing, this is the same university has produced one of the WORST Foreign Policy “Minister.” Do you agree with me? If you don’t; I totally understand your position because you need to get your promotion to survive. Until you get your promotion, be careful. I can go more than these pathetic and lunatics stories from Colombo University… including your university’s crazy production of the UGC chairperson and VC. But I do not want to worst my time.
    It is damn embarrassment to distinguish that oldest and prestigious university has lost its credibility this f—king lousy.

    Chreers

  • 0
    0

    both pollsters were very much regime insiders and also co-authors of the Mahinda Chinthanaya – both held short spells as politically appointed secretaries – very curious change of colours

Leave A Comment

Comments should not exceed 200 words. Embedding external links and writing in capital letters are discouraged. Commenting is automatically disabled after 7 days and approval may take up to 24 hours. Please read our Comments Policy for further details. Your email address will not be published.