9 August, 2020

Blog

After The Elections

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

The risk in an article to be uploaded a day or two before the results come rolling in, is that my assumptions may be blown away by the outcome. However, the assumptions in this instance are universally believed to be true and readers will forgive everybody if everybody is wrong! These unanimous assumptions are:

1. The SLPP will win a parliamentary majority and form the next government

2. Gota-Mahinda-SLPP will not win a 2/3 majority.

I make no assumptions about three other issues; sharing of UNP seats between Ranil and Sajith, performance of the NPP-JVP, and thirdly the division of seats between the TNA and other Tamil parties. I don’t need predictions about these for the purpose of today’s column as I will touch on just two different matters; the headlong rush to authoritarianism and militarism, and buying MPs or political parties to secure the elusive 2/3.

On the first matter the threat has been clearly and succinctly spelt out by Friday Forum. Here it is: –

QUOTE: “The military has moved out of its traditional role and is taking on responsibilities of civilian institutions in public administration and the Police. We have Military Task Forces which exercise significant powers, and exclude the Prime Minister and Cabinet Ministers. They report directly to the President. We have governance by gazette notification. The army has been made responsible for ‘de-radicalising’ those with ‘extremist ideas’. But those who advocate violence against minorities do so with impunity. What implication does governance by Presidential gazettes have for public administration and our personal liberties? Do we want this ‘new normal’ of unchecked power, ‘authoritarian leadership’ and militarisation?” (Abridged). END QUOTE.

The peril is magnified if assumption 1 is correct. The President, his militaristic entourage and clique of hangers on will discard the caution they exercised during the runup to the elections and be emboldened. But it requires those who oppose the “new normal” to form alliances inside and outside parliament to fight this monster. (Don’t forget how we threw back pissu-Sira’s 51-day bout of lunacy in 2018). In the early stages of the fight back it is not protests and demonstrations that will be the priority but (a) getting organised (trade unions, grassroots democratic entities, left parties, religious groups etc), (b) patient public education campaigns and (c) winning international support China and India included. The roots of democracy are too ingrained in this country for the authorities start massacring straight away as in Chile. Arrest and harassment are more likely at the beginning – vide the hounding of former CID Director SSP Shani Abeysekera and general intimidation of the Police. The AG blames the police for not being energetic, the AG is missing the point it is political intimidation that stops them.

If say the SLPP polls say 55% it by no means implies that 55 out of every 100 people are neo-fascists. They voted so because of discontent with yahapalana or they are motivated by Sinhala-Buddhist emotions. But when militarisation and authoritarianism spread, most people after a brief period of euphoria will become opponents of the autocratic state. These are the folks that the ‘public education campaign (b)’ must target.

My second point; if the shortfall to 2/3 is small say about 10, individual sales will be settled for cash, jobs for children or appointments for wives. If the shortfall is larger, bulk-purchase contracts will have to be concluded with the Ranil-UNP or the Sajith-SJB.  There is NO difference in ideology, economic outlook, politics, tradition, evolution or historical role between these two UNP wings. They are doppelgängers of each other. What has surfaced in the UNP in recent months is a dispute about who can pull more votes; essentially that’s all and that’s the bottom line. They only argue about who is the truer greener UNP vote puller, not policy or action plans.

Ranil is reeling from the “Et tu Brute” stab in the back from his closest associates – Manik, Eran, Mangala, Champika, Harsha and Fowzie. But Wickremesinghes and Rajapksas have had a good working relationship, not prosecuting each other’s households and giving way to each other on vital issues. As for Sajith, his manifesto is as silent as the tomb on constitutional issues; it is fair game to surmise that his chamber door is open to a Gota seduction bid. The Constitution is the hottest topic in the election arena so Sajith’s silence is deafening and it is reasonable to conclude that he is game for a love-in with Gota. What this means is that either Sajith or Ranil are capable of selling out and crossing over to give Gota his coveted 2/3.  Those who voted for Ranil or Sajith as a way of resisting the drift to an autocratic executive are deluded. They are dumb on this issue. Neither twin will take a courageous stand to oppose this draconian trend if cutting a deal is personally more beneficial.  

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Latest comments

  • 28
    9

    Ranil has no back bones. He will suck up to the Rajapakses and give them 2/3rd Majority just to teach Sajith a lesson.

    The Rajapakses, Ranils, Msythiris, etc etc don’t care a damn about the country.
    They have swindled the peoples money and are well off for generations after generations.

    • 11
      40

      Rajash,
      Don’t put Rajapakses into the same dust bin like Ranil and Maitree because Rajapakse regime wiped out LTTE Tamil terrorist barbarians who slaughtered people in this country for three decades and gave the opportunity to people to live in peace that was denied by Tamil terrorists.
      Ranil and Maitree dumbos shattered the peace of mind people enjoyed from 2009 to 2019 by allowing Musllm terrorists to blow up churches and hotels killing hundreds. These two should be hanged in Galle Face greens for the crime they committed. Should make use of the rope imported by Gamarala from Pakistan.
      —-
      “The Rajapakses, Ranils, Msythiris, etc etc don’t care a damn about the country.”

      • 8
        5

        Mahinda is an exception. He behaved worse than LTTE in his barbaric act. He raped and killed innocent Tamil Civilians in thousands and brought disgrace to Sri Lankan army, sinhala Buddhist and Country

    • 13
      47

      No one can stop SLPP coming to power with a 2/3 majority. People of Heladiva(Sri Lanka) taught (every Tamils) and western countries said this LTTE war will not win by any side, but Mahinda and Gotabaya completely wiped out LTTE leadership and LTTE. Now the SLPP government will show to the world and Sri Lankans this country belongs to Sinhalese Aryans same as how the USA whites did for Trump. Lets dogs barks caravan will go. Lets International Community bark Heladiva will remain for Sinhalese Aryans

      • 26
        4

        Nperera,
        .
        Rjaapkshe back lickers would be dreaming but for sure, there will be no 2/3 mandate to rascals. ‘:

        I think more of JVPrs, UNP Moderates, TNA and Independent groups will be the winner.
        :
        Floating votes are mostly coming from the YOUTH, – most among the srilanken YOUTH would not support RAJAAKSHE bitch s sons.
        :
        During the last 8 months, RAJAKSHES could not make any wonders, but the situation is now seen as people are thrown from FRYING pan to the fire.
        :
        Nobody would respect THUGs. and their actititives.
        :

        • 0
          0

          People who came from MADRAS (MADRAS-CALS) now realizing Sinhalese Aryans country belongs to who. The whole world now knows Sri Lanka (Heladiva) belongs to Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese Aryans. In this election, 97% of MPs are Sinhalese Aryans. Long live Sinhalese Aryans Country Sri Lanka (Heladiva)

    • 8
      4

      Who among the party leaders cares?
      *
      One cannot be serious to suggest Sajith P.

      • 12
        3

        SJ,
        .
        given the candidates, Sajith and his group has enough qualified ones to get elected and do some good work.
        .
        If the parliament would be rainbow one, things could change for the betterment of the people. Rajaakshes low level politics would not be easy anymore. Parliamentarians are for the purpose of getting the laws and its reforms passed, but not to allow them wasting the funds of the people as done under SRILANKA’s GADAFI none other than Mahind Rajaakshe. Gotabaya is now seen like a person who is fallen even deeper than GAMARALAGE SIRISENA who to be blamed for the entire political crisis of the day. If divine forces would not punish these men, who would … so long majority of people behave like MERCY COWS ( not offeinding them actually).

        • 0
          2

          Are you serious about Sajith?
          What insight has he shown in any matter of importance to the country?
          He was so daft that he wasted time wrestling Ranil when his battle was with GR.
          What did his knee-jerk reaction to his defeat indicate?
          Why are you bringing in Gadafi? The man did far far more for his people than any of his oil rich counterparts. He was mostly liked by Libyans and admired by Arabs generally.

    • 14
      3

      Not only Ranil but including the bastards sons of MEDAMULA who are now in power have no backbones.
      :
      If Gotabaya had a backbone

      would he be that silent at the time, ballige puthas demolished historical buildings in Kurunagala city ? Instead FORMER Petrol shed assistant had the gut to please his gallery by having said, ” buwanekabahu is the son of the restauruant”: Can you imagine ? Gotabaya has proved that FAKE PERCEPTION made by fake MEDIA culture brought him and made him a president to a nation whose 40% are under poverty level today.
      .
      Be them in Nothern, UVA or Southern, they struggle for 3 meals since bitch s sons returned as the leaders.
      :
      We all attacked GAMARALAGE SIRISENA plus Ranil, but during the last 4 years, until EASTER SUNDAY disaster, they did a great job out of a worst situation left behind by MEDAMULANA thugs.

      • 7
        4

        TO BE CONTD
        .
        We all attacked GAMARALAGE SIRISENA plus Ranil, but during the last 4 years, until EASTER SUNDAY disaster, they did a great job out of a worst situation left behind by MEDAMULANA thugs.
        :
        Madamulana thugs have been succesful as GAME CHANDIAS to spread any unsubstantiated hearsays/gossips becoming the breaking news of the day in MAIN media institutions of the country.
        :
        Latter was the trick Rajaakshes applied to grab the power from a decent rule. Former rulers as good governers introduced a lot more good systems, but LOCAL media never gave it a publicity. Eye lenses were given free of charge to those who have been suffering from eye impairments; stents prices sunk by 2/3 giving them lot more concessions; oil prices were handeled as is the case in Europe, by introducing a formular which was caught by ridicule by RACALS led rajapakshe mafia groups. Today, people are speechless even if the OIL prices sank to all lower leves in world market, but bitch s sons never gave that concessions to the people yet though 6 months passed since then. We while living in EUROPE enjoy the LOWER prices of OIL today… and even DAILY needs are made cheaper in Germany, since OIL PRICES are cheaper than previous years.

      • 1
        0

        “bastards sons”
        This phrase is not worthy of a person calling for justice and fairplay.

    • 10
      0

      It is because of Ranil/UNP incompetence, and the corruption, that led to this country voting for those who are even more corrupt and can be quite brutal, the Rajapaksa’s. We are a cursed nation.

    • 0
      1

      Ranil treats West as his enemy and build his dream castle to destroy them. So, he makes frequent deals with Royals to help them escape from IC or get help from them to teach West lessons. Vaalaththodam’s prime enemy is who ever not allowing him reach father’s achievement. So others than King, who only can help Vaalaththodam to reach Father’s or Kathirgamar ‘s “Prime Minister” star seat, from voters to Ranil are his arch enemies.

  • 11
    1

    Rajash,

    You seem to entirely discount the possibility of Sajith making a deal with Gota. Most recent predictions give the SLPP about 125 (including Nat List), Sajith say 45+ and Ranil say 15 minus. Therefore Ranil’s gang is just not big enough to reach two-thirds. There is no reason at all from past history or current actions to be so sure that Sajith won’t do a deal.

    • 2
      1

      eeakdavi – agree Sajith may also do a thopukaranam,

      • 0
        0

        Thoppukkaram or kuththukkaranam?

  • 7
    0

    On reading this article, I am reminded of experienced persons who analyze about horses and jockeys before placing their bets. Regarding the two assumptions stated in the article on electoral outcome is the feeling of many. There could be horse trading of all sorts including threats to prosecute for alleged misdeeds if the necessary support is not given. We have seen instances how fortunes differ with changes in party. You fall foul with authority you get remanded. The authority changes with an election and take the side of the new authority you get bail. Because of a good offer you cross over to the previous lot, now in opposition, you get convicted for the offence. You switch back to the government you win the appeal and get acquitted. That is the power of politics in Sri Lanka and is well demonstrated. A shortfall of about 15? Yes! The sitting target could be the SJB to form a “National Government” with an expanded Cabinet as was in the heyday of the “Yahapalana Regime” allowing their boys to make hay while the sun shines. With the two thirds you do what you want and thereafter come what may.

  • 6
    0

    I agree very much with the lines:
    “In the early stages of the fight back it is not protests and demonstrations that will be the priority but (a) getting organised (trade unions, grassroots democratic entities, left parties, religious groups etc), (b) patient public education campaigns and (c) winning international support China and India included. The roots of democracy are too ingrained in this country for the authorities start massacring straight away as in Chile.” but for the bit on Chile.
    Post-WWII Chile had a better bourgeois democracy than most of Latin America.
    The US-sponsored coup regime was most cruel, but the resistance survived to fight back.
    *
    To achieve (a) or (b) unity has to be achieved among democratic forces. When greed for positionand power creep in, like for instance in the New Left Front formed in 1999 when the personal greed of a leader of a key member organization destroyed not the NLF but even the prospect of another such front for many years.
    Think of the betrayal of 1964 which destroyed the ULF as well as wrecked the historic 21-Demands campaign.
    Let us ask ourselves why the parliamentary left and several of its offshoots ended up in the laps of the SLFP, UNP and SLPP.
    *
    Mass politics and broad united fronts do not blend well with electoral politics.

  • 4
    4

    Neither any ultra-Leninist or any Bolshevist theories of Communism hold anymore, nor does such fundamental modes of government exist in any country, not even in Russia or China for that matter.
    Thus, I see no valid reason why anybody living in this time and age, with some political understanding need to be concerned/ worry/ comment on Trotskyists. Whilst I respect Professor Kumar David for his academic affluence, I still feel and share the thought that he sometimes ventures out of his area of expertise in his writings, and by doing so makes a mockery or himself.

    • 0
      0

      DharshanaW ,
      All communists are well aware Communism and USSR are gone and but greed and Stalin’s fascism is only left behind. In Lankawe like rotten countries, almost all lefts still holding to leftism are those who couldn’t board on main looters’ boats. From Peter, NM, Colin to Anura there is no policy. JVP was licking Old Royals feet before Yahapalanaya government came. Old King striped them to bone and threw away the pure calcium carbonate bones. Those are the ones the worthless Anura, Bimal, Handunnetti……. Even Lemon Puff speaks better than Anura. Prof. Kumar is too ancient, from Marx’s time soul, to understand the word “contemporary”. So he has joined the hypocrites. China spread the China Virus, a leaked weapon. That is going to infect more than 100 countries before the end of the year above China’s number. See, Israel is highly developed, full democracy. But has only 8 million people. About 40% of the workers are Muslims. It is going to surpass China soon in infection. But China has 1.5 Billion. How do you explain this? Sweden has marginally escaped from already surpassing China. It is not ruled outstill. The richest ME countries are suffering from the very start, leave aside Iran. Only Brainless dreads or living Savams want to spread this dangerous virus called communism, under different names, like Russian SARS, Chinese Covid, Cuban Bird flu……

  • 1
    2

    Both assumptions are correct.
    You cannot get 2/3 in a proportional representation system unless one side is disproportionately good and the other side is disproportionately bad which is not.
    But those who openly cry over this possibility seem to assume so.
    I have never seen in any election openly acknowledging that the other side superior to yours by such a margin.
    .
    When your sole objective is to deny 2/3 to the other side what you are saying is give us at least one more than 1/3. What a shame.

    Soma

  • 1
    0

    When will the new Parliament sessions commence? After the purchase of M.PP at exorbitant rates

    with funds from China. This is the Agenda SLPP is working on. Every such M.PP will have to be given

    the treatment they deserve, at their homes!

  • 4
    1

    Kumar, As we were discussing last Wednesday over the plain tea at the ‘thosai kade’ (I like your last, high sounding reference to Rum and tonic last time!).
    /
    We’ll have to wait and see what happens tomorrow. Your predictions are way off the mark, like they have always been.
    /
    Hope you will be the second supporter of my own presidential campaign next time though it didn’t get off my Facebook page really.
    /
    Hope my current slave master, that other Kumar will give a bit of money after learning he has no future in politic, but to plow the paddy fields in Matugama.

  • 1
    0

    The rift between Ranil and Sajith is for the advantage of SLPP In the North and East the votes of TNA will be split. There are too many contestants planted to split the cotes . Can JVP do well in this lection and get more seats? . I anticipate Muslims will stand together as they are treated badly by the Mahinda group. In short, SLPP may have to buy over some MPP’s to get two-third Majority. Mahinda has the Chinese money to get a two-third majority.

    • 2
      1

      Definitely two-third seats for SLPP. No needs to buy.

      • 1
        2

        N. Perera

        “Definitely two-third seats for SLPP. No needs to buy.”

        Of course even with less than 2/3 the clan and his cronies/lackies still can clean the Treasury, wipe off prison population, teach the “OTHERS” lessons that they will never forget, …. Namal baby could operates agency in collaboration with Navy ….. ferrying refugees out of this island.

  • 2
    3

    No one needs Terrorists Oriented party and extremists to our parliament. What is the TNA LTTE party? Muslim congress Extremists party. Thanks to Gotabaya who wiped out completely LTTE leadership and LTTE.

    • 3
      3

      N. Perera

      “Thanks to Gotabaya who wiped out completely LTTE leadership and LTTE.”

      What are you talking about?
      It was Vellupillai Prabaharan who won the war and two elections for Rajapaksa clan with great support from Hindians.

      Go check facts.

  • 2
    3

    What is wrong with you Sri Lankans?

    You elect the same corrupt, useless people time after time and then spend your time complaining about the state of your country!

    You’re always blaming others for your problems – this is 100% on you!

    Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of Insanity according to Einstein.

    Here’s my prediction:- 79IQ Sri Lankans get the government they deserve! Enjoy!

    • 1
      0

      The time is 9.00 pm on Thursday.
      .
      Yes it’s going to be a much worse result than Kumar David has forecast.
      .
      Why?
      .
      Very few Sri Lankans do any long term thinking. In fact they don’t think at all.
      .
      We saw this result coming. When all the results are known tomorrow morning they want to say that they voted for the Party that won.
      .
      They may even say tomorrow itself that all the guys whom they elected are crooks.
      .
      But remember that most of us who do some thinking acted differently!

    • 1
      0

      Upto within three hours of voting I was going to vote SJB. Then I decided that the only guys who’d remain faithful to the mandate they were given would be the JVP led NPP.
      .
      The list of 24 groups together with the 12 nominees in each was displayed in Sinhalese. Not once, twice! Nothing in English, obviously.
      .
      Also, nothing in Tamil. It’s a language that I don’t know at all. But many Bandarawela voters are Tamils who cannot read Sinhalese, even if they can speak it.
      .
      Nobody was looking at the lists in whatever language! In fact, when I got back and asked those in a cafe of sorts who had voted earlier they swore that there were no lists displayed.
      .
      There was a pretty young Policewoman on duty. I summoned her. I complained that there was nothing in Tamil. She acknowledged that the Tamil list should have been there. Also agreed that a lot of thought should go into voting. Agreed that rotten Parliamentarians would be the result.

      • 1
        0

        There are some comments here that I made before setting out to cast my vote:
        .

        .
        https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/female-representation-in-parliament-the-wait-for-a-gender-balance/

        • 1
          0

          No, this is not just sad.
          .
          It is tragic.
          .
          Will our destiny be closer to Zimbabwe, Haiti, Franco’s Spain, Mussolini’s Italy, Stalin’s Russia – or, dare I say it, Hitler’s Nazi Germany?
          .
          May heaven help us!

          • 1
            0

            My dear Mr SM,

            dont worry, you and I did what we can. But few of us cant do the job. Entire society is filled with supporters of high criminals. You are dead right saying that masses would not think at all before going to vote.

            You may have noticed it, all these few weeks, I was out of my posts. I thought my tireless efforts would bring much. Even my circles down there, to whom I have helped over the years, stood against me. They started talking to me, that Rajapakshe managed the COVID crisis well. To their – frog in awell mentality- they are the weerayas. So what to do.
            :
            Srilanka*s future is not that far from the destiny of ZIMBABWE.
            :
            I have no doubt, that the situation will turn out to be worst in the months to come for average srilanken. I read somewhere in the press over here, that SRILANKA s future is in danger . I dont think more tourists would travel to srilanka as they targeted a tthe begining on incumbent govt.

            Please take good care of you MY dear SM. I pray for your health.

    • 0
      0

      That decided me! I looked at the list for those whose symbol was the compass.
      .
      The first fellow had a Muslim-sounding name. The fifth, a Tamil name. Number 10 was Samantha Vidyaratne who had been an MP, and was the acknowledged leader of the JVP in Uva.
      .
      I joined the queue. Produced my identity card – whose number is known to all regular CT readers. The third clerk in the row read out my name aloud. It was fifth-year old, Amara who works in the Bandarawela Divisional Secretariat. I asked her also to note my protest that there was no Tamil list.
      .
      I was waved on. I missed a trick after that. I didn’t report the matter to the Presiding Officer. Voted for 1, 5 and 10 on the compass list.
      .
      UK Citizen: do you now understand why we elect rotters to Parliament?
      My fault? Maybe, but yours as well!

      • 0
        0

        @Sinhala_Man

        Not sure how any of this is my fault – please explain.

        In the meantime – enjoy your new Government!

        • 0
          0

          You sound a decent enough guy, dear UK Citizen.
          .
          Only don’t blame all of us.
          .
          Also, even without it being rubbed in, I think that you understand that it is we, and not you, who have to face the music.
          .
          I wish you well – and integrate with the society of your New Country. Think of us occasionally, but I’m sure that you’re not one of those flying tribal Sri Lankan flags.

    • 2
      0

      The time now is 10.25 pm. I’ve been sitting in front of the TV, miserably typing this response to you.
      .
      The villain who brought this on us is Ranil Wickremasinghe who selfishly refused democracy in the UNP. Well, it is clear that the UNP will not have a single seat. Enough Colombo District results are known for us to know that the UNP will not reach the 5% necessary to gain representation.
      .
      Did I say 5%? They won’t get 0.5:%.
      .
      Some said that Ranil & Penthouse Ravi would survive. Maybe they will survive long enough to face the guillotine.

      • 0
        0

        I’ve heard that Ranil thinks that he should try to come into Parliament as the sole National List guy – and even become the speaker, with the connivance of the Rajapaksa family.
        .
        This should not be allowed. Ranil and his UNP were rejected by all voters in the country. I looked at the National List yesterday. Saw Karunasena Kodituwakku. But I find that he’s 75 years old.
        .
        They should think of a younger person.
        .
        Sunil Handunetti coming in through the National List will be a quite different matter. All want him personally; it’s just that his Party got shut out since many would have considered the SJB (symbol “Telephone”) would be more effective voting.

    • 1
      1

      Let’s hope that AKD gets in from the Colombo District. Sunil Handunetti ought to be nominated from the National List. Very doubtful that they will be able to nominate Prof Kumar David, although some of the NPP votes islandwide may have been owing to his writing.
      .
      Dear UK Citizen, IQ can be measured in various ways. I don’t necessarily blame you. Was it intelligence or cowardice that made you run away. At least I have remained here.
      .
      Panini Edirisinhe NIC 48 3111 444V

      • 1
        0

        Look at my user name – that’s who I am.

        Other than living in Sri Lanka for a number of years as part of my job I have zero connection to Sri Lanka.

        Hope that clarifies a few things.

        • 0
          0

          Oh, I see this now – after making my previous comment.
          .
          My apologies.
          .
          If you are not ethnically Sri Lankan, many thanks for loving us enough to have made the comments.

  • 3
    0

    UK Citizen
    What is wrong with you Brits?
    You elected Boris Johnson, knowing well what kind of a shady character he is?
    You say ‘Amen’ to every horrible thing that Uncle Sam says to defend his interests.

    • 0
      0

      @SJ

      We needed BREXIT to go through – Boris delivered. This is vital for the long term survival of the UK as a Sovereign, Independent nation.

      Unfortunately I have lost my right to vote in the UK.

      I would disagree with your last statement – would you rather have China calling the shots?

  • 0
    1

    People who came from MADRAS (MADRAS-CALS) now realizing Sinhalese Aryans country belongs to who. The whole world now knows Sri Lanka (Heladiva) belongs to Sri Lanka’s Sinhalese Aryans. In this election, 97% of MPs are Sinhalese Aryans. Long live Sinhalese Aryans Country Sri Lanka (Heladiva)

    • 0
      0

      N. Perera,
      .
      Why don’t you post a photograph of yourself? You can do that by writing an article.
      .
      You are not a bloody Aryan. I’m sure that you are a dark “Sinhalese” (with a Portuguese name) who, like me, has mainly Dravidian genes.
      .
      Let us see a photograph!
      .

  • 0
    0

    I’m waiting for the day when this man got anything right in his articles.

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