By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne

Sajith Premadasa: “A Win For All”

SJB’s manifesto focuses on 20 areas: a strong economy, debt crisis management, national security, law and order, anti-corruption laws, public digital infrastructure, personal income tax relief, reduction of corporate tax, VAT reduction to 15%, zero VAT for some items, 50kg bag of fertilizer at Rs. 5000, welfare allowance increases from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 50,000, and for elderly people an increased allowance of Rs. 5000. Generality, manifesto seems to be welfare oriented than economic growth development oriented. The reduction in tax revenue is enormous, so the face value of a strong economy alone will not be sufficient to compensate for the deprived revenue in the right direction. In short, the manifesto promises all, including the sun, moon, and stars, but does not consider how to find money to fulfill those promises together to please the alliance, as explained.

To assess previous performance, once Sajith Premadasa was at the Ministry of Cultural Affairs, he looked after the cultural fund. It was reported that Rs. 4800 million was distributed like Santa Claus. Still, the National Audit Report revealed that no work had been done, and the Central Cultural Fund did not follow the proper method of providing financial assistance for promoting religion, religious places, and religious practices under “Sunodhaya” program.

There are serious concerns about governance assessment. SJB, a coalition of many political parties and senior politicians, may lead to a situation where Sajith Premadasa is forced to offer ministerial positions to keep the alliance intact. This could lead to a significant portion of the government revenue being used for these positions, potentially leading to mismanagement and waste.

Sajith Premadasa often publicly states that his party or alliance does not have corrupt politicians, which is invalid. For example, MP Rishad Bathiudeen was convicted by the law courts. Dr Nalaka Godahewa, with the Securities Exchange Commission (SEC), had a misappropriation case of Rs. 5 million, even though he was later acquitted. For his political propaganda, Sajith Premadasa used schools and schoolchildren through the Sakwala Computer or Smart Classroom program and the donation of school buses, of which funding sources or donors are unknown, so it is suspicious with an array of implications. As explained by Sajith Premadasa in the Pathikada program on 27 May 2024, the value of donations, including to hospitals, was Rs. 832.7 million. Transparency and accountability of the above are less than zero. As Sajith Premadasa publicly promoted government-paid “sanitary pads”,  he was sarcastically called “Pads Man.” Alao, Sajith Premadasa’s political statements in front of the school children attacked NPP and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), referring to AKD as කය්ය නායක, shows a lack of leadership quality, immature and hence not worth to be the president in Sri Lanka. Generally, his political statements are of low quality, irrelevant in the context, very cheap, and unenthusiastic to the public.

The third concern is the IMF program, for which debt sustainability is crucial. In short, Sri Lanka is in a rough sea now. As indicated above, benchmarks from (ii) to (vi) are interconnected, reinforcing each other, so if one variable is derailed, it affects others. Hence, the whole program may be in jeopardy.  In other words, Sajith Premadasa promised everything blatantly without guaranteeing revenue, which is a real danger. Too many promises or expectations with limited resources while having unbreakable obligations with education, health etc. will not help maintain debt sustainability. There is no doubt that the phone will not work.

Manifesto of NPP: “A Rich Country with a Beautiful Life”

The NPP manifesto is not a departure from its original purpose when founded in 2019. It responds to the mounting economic, communal, social, and political problems created by power-hungry politicians and political parties. The urgent need for a new political movement transcending the traditional green and blue party boundaries or class and family politics is clear. This movement, led by young leaders, aims to unite Sri Lanka in a broader context of harmonization and reconciliation. The bitter, distressed, and disastrous experience of the three decades of war underscores the necessity for this new political direction. The NPP election manifesto symbolizes the above.

Accordingly, among the promises, monthly allowances for low-income families starting from a minimum of Rs 10,000, income tax relief, and VAT reduction were found to provide relief along with the increasing cost of living. For the above, NPP needs about Rs 100 billion, and this will be achieved via effective and efficient tax administration, slashing all unnecessary costs. Commitment to education, agriculture modernization, export orientation, health, a new constitution, a Bangladesh Grameen Bank type Development Bank without collateral, all-inclusive development and employment creation, law and order, and an independent judiciary are among the promises.  Furthermore, only 25 ministries and 25 deputies will be there. Expenditure is only for the priority; tax revenue will be saved, eliminating fraud and corruption. I provided details on the above in my article “The Meaning of Rata Anurata”.  Based on the above, the NPP election manifesto focuses more on economic growth and development in the context of sustainable development, which goes well with the UN Agenda 2030.

For the NPP, finding money is not a problem because it knows how to organize, manage, and use a massive resource base in the country well. For example, from 2015 to 2022, from Rs 8 trillion in project funds, 75% unaccounted for, is just the tip of the iceberg, according to the Auditor General’s reports.  Indeed, only a handful of opponents who do not want to see the end of 76 years of history will oppose the manifesto. In other words, hired and paid big mouths or voices talk and write stories about the manifesto that is nothing to the majority supporting the change on 21 September 2024. One ounce of action by the NPP in the right direction is far better than a ton of empty and blatant promises from the opposition parties and baseless criticisms published in the media.

Performance Assessment of AKD

Once Anura Kumara Dissanayake was a minister, he gracefully and without failure generated the expected outcome. AKD worked with the relevant authorities to deal with corruption and fraud during the Yahapalanaya Government without protecting anyone. Given the above, AKD has always succeeded.

Governance Assessment of AKD

AKD was not accused of any governance issue during any parliamentary session, particularly by his political enemies. For any wrongdoing, AKD or his presidency will be treated the same as other citizens in the country, and the law will be applied equally.

NPP and Debt Sustainability Assessment

Naturally, NPP is committed to debt sustainability following its election win based on benchmarks and gross financial need. As the manifesto has been formulated well, understanding the realities on the ground and its governance is also realistic.

The foundation of debt sustainability cannot be changed, but the house NPP builds upon can be changed however it likes; it is well known to the political hierarch of NPP.  Any government can renegotiate if an acceptable and credible proposal is submitted to the IMF, ensuring that the foundation or benchmarks are not altered so that creditors will get back funds as agreed. Also, any government can go to the IMF with a new DSA, which would guarantee that

creditors get their funds without delay or default, and that is all about IMF conditionalities, whether we like it or not. The pertinent concern is that the two options mentioned must be followed because the IMF program is an international agreement to which the government of Sri Lanka is committed.

For debt sustainability, whether existing or new, Sri Lanka needs to earn an increasing amount of foreign exchange and government revenue simultaneously. The strategy for the above is contained in the manifesto. Given the current benchmarks above, the debt repayment obligation can be met.

Conclusion

The manifestos of three presidential candidates were assessed based on three (3) assessment criteria to help the voters. The promises of the manifesto of Sajith Premadasa are unprecedented, and they cannot be realistic in supporting economic growth and development, which is the primary goal. Sagith Premadasa is with poor governance. Given the above, voters will not help him. The three-time defeated, the manifesto of RW, not having a foot on earth, is a romantic ideology/dream fantasy. It is a recipe for disaster based on poor performance records and an absence of good governance. No doubt he will be defeated for the fourth time. The NPP manifesto is the manifesto of the people and the country, and it is well-balanced between welfare and economic growth and development. Furthermore, due to many reasons, the leadership of Anura Kumara Dissanayake is crucial at this juncture to mark a turning point in political history since 1948. Given the above, the only choice of most voters looking for a beautiful life after 76 years is to go with the manifesto of NPP on 21 September 2024.

*The writer, among many, worked as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia and was a Senior Consultant with UNDP for 16 years. He worked as a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993) before he migrated to New Zealand. The writer can be contacted at asoka.seneviratne@gmail.com

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