By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne

Given the economic problems and hardships people face, the political manifestations of the presidential candidates may confuse the voters due to flooding promises, which is heating the political landscape of Sri Lanka. These manifestos focus on economic and social problems and propose solutions that could significantly shape the nation’s future. The question is how to assess or believe candidates along with their manifestos. In short, all promises seem good if they can be fulfilled. At the same time, it is unsurprising that politicians loudly and blatantly lie on stage, so voters are misguided. A long time ago, politicians promised to bring rice from the moon, particularly voters who wanted to vote for the candidate who promised to give various forms of financial assistance. Given the mounting hardships, voters will go with such candidates because of greed for money. However, voters play a crucial role in learning how the government would find money to finance such promises because it is only the tax revenue that the government would use to provide financial assistance to the people while having other huge commitments like health, education, national security, etc. As it used to be, now the government cannot print money, borrowing money, which also has limitations. This means that such promises will increase taxes and the final burden on top of the current hardships for the people, and this is imminent. On the contrary, politicians will forget election manifestos or forgo everything after winning, and voters will be more lost or helpless than now. The potential impact of these unrealistic promises on the nation’s future, such as increased taxes and financial burden, should be a cause for concern and engagement among the voters, who must be cautious and actively involved in assessing candidates to ensure a positive future for the nation.

Assessment Criteria of Political Manifestos

Given the above, the following five elements, (i) credibility, (ii) reliability, (iii) integrity, (iv) dependability, and (v) honesty are helpful as the foundation. Based on the above, candidates can first be assessed based on their historical performance recorders, if any, to determine to what extent they have fulfilled what they promised. It is crucial for the country’s future that voters are cautious about political promises, as they can significantly impact the nation’s direction and will make them feel vigilant.

The second aspect is to assess the presidential candidates based on good governance. Good governance needs to be more than common sense. It compasses the character of the candidates, quality morality, ethics, transparency, accountability, and topics such as full respect for human rights, the rule of law, political pluralism, education, and many more that support and accommodate the goal of development.

The third concern is the IMF program, for which debt sustainability is crucial. Debt sustainability concerns the government’s ability to meet all its current and future payment obligations without seeking further debt relief or going into default again. According to the foreign debt restructured program, Sri Lanka will not pay its debt until 2028. But in 2028, Sri Lanka may (i) need about US$ 15.875 billion as a reserve, compared to the current about US$5 billion.  Also, (ii) an increase in government revenue from 8.5% to 15.3% of GDP in 2028 and (iii) maintaining a surplus in the primary account of 2.3% of GDP from 2025 to 2028 is essential. Furthermore, an increase of (iv) real economic growth from 2.6% to 3.1% in 2028, (v) stability in the exchange rate and price levels, and (vi) low interest are prerequisites. Generally, (ii) to (vi) are benchmarks for the debt sustainability.  Also, there is a Gross Financial Need for which the amount of debt that can be obtained must be 13 % of GDP, of which only 4.5% can be taken in foreign loans.

The voters have had the opportunity to read, understand, and digest the political manifesto of SJB headed by Sajith Premadasa (SP, “A Win For All.” Independent candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) -“Five Years of Winning the Country with Ranil,” and NPP headed by Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD), – “A Rich Country with a Beautiful Life,” among many such manifestos. This article aims to assess the three presidential candidates’ election manifestos and (3) assessment criteria.

This article has two parts. The first part assesses the manifesto of independent candidate Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW). The second part assesses the manifestos of Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake together with a conclusion.

Ranil Wickremesinghe (RW) -“Five Years of Winning the Country with Ranil,”

The main focus of the manifesto is on the cost of living, tax relief, job creation, debt management, addressing and resolving poverty through programs of  ‘Aswesuma’ and ‘Urumaya.’, enhancing income generation opportunities, and hence the manifesto is based on five pillars of  (i)  “Theravada Trade economy,” (ii) “Operation – Beyond 2025,”  (iii) “Make a Radiant Society,”  (iv) “Win the Motherland,” and  (v) “Unite Sri Lanka.”, more or less similar to the Manifesto of Sajith Premadasa that promises the sun, moon, and stars, in the universe, not having a foot on the earth or not realistically achieved or it is a romantic ideology/dream fantasy. Indeed, it is unsurprising that both Sajith Premadasa and Ranil Wickremesinghe hold the same political ideologies.

Regarding the performance assessment, RW’s claim of a stable economy is shaky and unstable, wholly because, as he just agreed with all of the IMF conditionalities, there is unprecedented hardship for the people and the country; it is so “unfortunate” for RW. This means having a president and not having one; there is no difference to the people and the country. Indeed, the government is run on a US$3 billion loan, for which Sri Lanka is forced to pay back about US$6 billion, the principal plus interest and other costs, “until the water boils in the pot, the crab plays on” for the poor people and the country.

As this article is based on election manifestos, it is helpful to indicate what RW promised when he was the Prime Minister from 2001 to 2004. During 2001-2004, RW was the country’s prime minister. He signed a 252-page document in 2002 named “Regaining Sri Lanka Vision and Strategy for Accelerated Development-”. He expected to achieve many objectives, such as poverty reduction, employment creation, and debt management during the first year, and he was looking for 10 percent economic growth and peace in the long run. Nothing was achieved, so Prime Minister RW took the people and country for a ride, given the people’s suffering and uncertainty. In the same manner, after 20 years, he repeats the same ideas, such as poverty reduction, debt management, and employment creation. Regarding debt management, Fiscal Management Act (Responsibility) Act No. 3 was introduced when he was Prime Minister in 2003. It aimed to maintain debt to GDP not exceeding 85% but utterly failed.  After 20 years, RW is now with the IMF and committed to reducing debt to GDP from 128% in 2022 to below 95% by 2032. Also, it is pertinent to mention that he borrowed UDS$12 billion from 2015 to 2019, paving the way for the economy’s collapse in 2022.

Once, he advocated assembling Volkswagen cars and promised to create many thousand jobs accordingly. Not a single car was produced, and none got jobs. Even then, he goes to the same electorate today and promises to create 100,000 employment creation.

Hambantota port reported an operating profit of US$1.81 in 2016. However, the Yahapalanaya Government, of which Ranil Wickremesinghe was the Prime Minister, considered the port economically unviable.  Accordingly, 80% of Sri Lanka’s shares were sold to China Merchants Port to raise foreign exchange and repay maturing sovereign bonds, obtaining US$1.12 billion. As usual, the President wants to sell profit-making Sri Lanka Telecom because it is in the context of running the country by borrowing and selling public assets, which is a shame and, hence, not a good vision as well.  Given his present and past performance, if he is given five years, it will undoubtedly be disastrous to the people and the country. Indeed, he had been defeated three times, which meant the people and the country escaped. But only caught as the caretaker president since 2022, which is unfortunate.

Regarding the assessment of the Manifesto of Ranil Wickremesinghe based on good governance, my article: The President Ranil Wickremesinghe has taken Sri Lanka for rides, I explained some of his actions and practices that not based on sound governance practices as well as unconstitutional in the context of democratic principles and people’s rights.

Apart from the above, the following information published in the media about corrupt politicians and bureaucrats related to Ranil Wickremesinghe /his political order may glean his unsound governance practice. (1)  Mahindananda  Aluthgamage (2) Ajith Nivarard Cabraal (3). Basil Rajapaksa, (4) Dr. Nalaka Godahewa (5) Namal Rajapaksa, (6) Ravi Karunanayake (7) Ranjith Soysa (8) Wimal Weerawansa (9) Army men related to the rape of Rajini Velayuthem Pillai (10) Arjun Mahendran (11) MP Ali Sabry Raheem for gold smuggling (12) Rohitha Abeygunawardena (13) Prasanna Ranatunga. Indeed, the best team of RW is comprised of the above list, which is a shame.   The Commission of Inquiry was appointed to investigate British TV Channel 4 allegations over the Easter bombing not published yet. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who was also part and parcel of the Central Bank’s Bond scam in 2015, is said to have US$11 million in losses to the nation. It was reported recently that two of the RW election meetings in Maharagama and Gampola blatantly violated election laws. In short, RW uses his power and misuses public resources to attend all election meetings in the country, often stating that if people do not support him, it will be the end of Sri Lanka and its people, pretending he is the one and only king to look after the country.

Political Cronyism at the President’s Office

Recently, among many, it was reported that about 60% of people in the country do not have access to clean water, while one-third of the children are malnourished. Also, about 35% live under the poverty line. This is indeed terrible, but it is the reality. At the same time, it came to the public’s notice recently via “Karige Chenel” by Dharma Sri Kariyawasam that the president’s office has become a refugee camp, hurting in many ways.

As we know, about 1,000 staff members work for the president’s office. They are public servants. Apart from the above, about 95 people in the president’s office hold various positions and are experts or professionals in some subjects. These people are paid and enjoy other benefits, such as motor vehicles and fuel. Accordingly, it is a source of additional burden for the people and the country. All these appointments are not constitutional but only at the president’s wish or only the president’s political cronies. Among them, one is 95 years old, as exposed by the name. The point is that having all these experts and professionals with the president, where the country is heading, and what the country’s benefits are burning economic and social problems. There is an opportunity cost. Instead, if the president is insightful, public funds should not be wasted for nothing. Once Harine Fernando and Manushananayakkara lost their parliamentary seats due to a court decision, precedent appointed them to the staff category mentioned above. It is a shame and disgrace because the rest of the world also watches what the president does. Indeed, the people and country hardly know the refugee camp mentioned above in the president’s office. In short, the president is not expected to misuse his power at a massive cost to the people and the country.   

Indeed, the Theravada trade economy is the first time here, given the 50 years of RW’s parliament history. Some time ago, RW pointed out that “he follows Vajji principles of good governance, a system that had prevailed in the Buddha’s time in the system of republics run by Lichchavi clan, but also adopt them both in the spirit and to the letter”. Given his unsound governance experience that I indicated, I wonder what he acted based on “Vajji principles.”

An assessment can be presented based on debt sustainability. It cannot be changed once the government states a single word of the agreement with the IMF. Instead, the above government submitted a proposal for salary changes to the IMF. It would be great if the government followed and adhered to the abovementioned five benchmarks.  But given the unattainable manifesto, it is impossible. The only way out is for RW to abandon the Manifesto and go with IMF to survive. If RW wins the election, he will ensure that the international creditors are paid back at an unbearable cost to the people and the country.  This is an imminent disaster like the sun, moon, and stars because he has no care for the people and the country, “out of the frying pan to the fire,” it is dead sure.

To be continued ….

*The writer worked as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia and was a Senior Consultant with UNDP for 16 years. He worked as a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993) before he migrated to New Zealand.