1 October, 2020

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An Explosion Is Coming 

By Dayan Jayatilleka –

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

An explosion is not always a good thing. But it is not always preventable. Sometimes an explosion cannot be predicted but sometimes it can. Often an explosion is not inevitable but that does not mean it isn’t likely or even probable. In any country, these factors would cause a social upheaval. In Sri Lanka, a country of much unrest and violence, an explosion is almost certainly on the way. I do not wish it, nor will I exult over it, but I can see that it is on the way.

It will be a social explosion caused by economic crisis and public frustration, but made probable by political factors. Those political factors will not be to do with the Opposition but entirely with the government.     

The coming social explosion will be caused by the economic meltdown combined with the mismatch between the economic crisis and the political response to that crisis. 

We are talking politics when we should be talking economics. Just look at the facts. The rupee is at its lowest ever in relation to the dollar. The economic growth rate is the lowest in 16 years (back when Ranil was PM in 2002). The stock market has flat-lined. 

Dreadful as these are they are only signs and symptom of a terminal economic illness that has set in under this government. Each of these factors will breed secondary ailments. The concatenation of these fundamental factors will set off a chain reaction that blows a hole in the very foundations of the economy and below the waterline of the government. 

The government does not seem to care either because it is preoccupied with its internal political discontents or because the PM hopes to use the crisis to sell off national assets such as the Trincomalee oil tanks and the Port, Mattala airport and the Colombo East jetty, thereby getting some cash and giving foreign powers a stake in keeping him in power. 

This won’t work because each of these steps is so controversial that it will rip the government to shreds in in-fighting and even generate dissent within the governing parties. A giant sell-off will also cause a trade union backlash. A grand sale will further deny the government social legitimacy due to the public perception of rampant de-nationalization and foreignization. All of this will be fuel for the firestorm to come.

As a (second generation) student of foreign affairs and a former practitioner, but above all as a member of the Vietnam generation, I am acutely familiar with the phenomenon of governments that get into wars which are unwinnable and are too blind or boxed in, to develop an exit strategy. Luckily for the USA, Dr. Henry Kissinger knew that Vietnam needed an exit strategy and was appointed to implement the task by a President, Richard Nixon, who was a supreme realist.      

This government is in an unwinnable war in the political, economic and electoral senses. The only sensible thing to do would be to recognize that and develop a political exit strategy which can avert a conflagration. However there is no faction in this faction-ridden government and its supportive intelligentsia that recognizes this.  This absence of moderate realism is itself a symptom of the terminal nature of the government’s crisis.

This faction-ridden government contains hardliners who think that it would be both possible and prudent to jail its political opponents, especially Gotabhaya Rajapaksa, the potential candidate with the most formidable narrative and bearer of the greatest public expectations. Such incarceration itself will radicalize the inevitable public response to the crisis and shape the nature of the successor regime.  

Then there are those others in government who think that the present leader of the UNP actually has a chance at winning next year’s election. A simple public opinion poll could put them right.  The same goes for the President. As he has proven (Jan 2015), he is not intrinsically unelectable but he has been keeping the wrong company and is in the wrong company—indeed the very worst possible. This was something I told him in December 2014 and went on to remind him of publicly over a year ago. How can the PM or President even think of running for the highest office when their respective parties which enjoy governmental power, cannot even mobilize a march on May Day, one year away from the Presidential election?

Let us return to economics or rather the nexus between politics and economics. There are steps that can be taken to stabilize the economy which is in a tailspin, but this government lacks the social legitimacy to take them. Any attempt to administer bitter medicine and the public will vomit it out violently, all over the government.

There are several obstacles to economic stability and recovery. Firstly, the economic elite and the economic policy elite– the upper crust of the corporate community and the economic bureaucracy– which should be ringing the alarm bells and demanding an election so a new, freshly legitimized government can stabilize the situation, is not doing so because it is culturally, personally, socially, politically and ideologically comfortable with Prime Minister Wickremesinghe whose profile and policies are causing the crisis. The macro-economy’s discomfort zone is their social comfort zone and their social comfort zone is the macro-economy’s discomfort zone.

The socioeconomic elite will have to make the hard choice between the continuity of the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration on the one hand, and macro-economic stability and recovery on the other. The former is not the prerequisite of the latter; indeed it is the main impediment to the latter. It is a zero-sum game. The socioeconomic elite is swallowing poison while mistaking it for the antidote!

Secondly, the policy measures that are taken in the name of economic stability are actually ideologically driven rather than reality driven. These measures will not bring economic stability because they will only exacerbate social and political instability. There can be no economic stability which is not at the same time, politically and socially stabilizing.

The economic time bomb is ticking because the economic necessity of a new, legitimized, popular government runs up against the attempt to entrench this government in office, persecute its opponents and win an unwinnable election. It is as if there is only one way to turn in order that the economy survive but the politicians in office are turning in exactly the opposite direction.  

The avoidance of an explosion requires that the safety-valves be opened up soon. Instead, the government is taking the risky path of postponing the Provincial Council elections scheduled for the third quarter of this year. With the mounting economic crisis as backdrop, the dysfunctions of a frozen Provincial Council system, added to the discontent that could have been released safely but instead will be pent up, make an explosion far more probable. 

The Government is living dangerously, on borrowed time, but doesn’t know it. Either the politics shifts to accommodate the economic imperatives, which means an early parliamentary election to stabilize the situation, or the economic crisis or social upheaval will blast a path open for a new government. If early national elections are not held, there will be a social revolution either before or the morning after the inevitable election of late next year. 

As Mahinda Rajapaksa is fond of saying, after this upcoming Vesak Poya, there is only one more Vesak Poya that the people have to suffer this government. I have chipped in, that it’s only one more Avurudu too. But can the economy survive that long?  

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Latest comments

  • 4
    0

    The new President who will be elected between October and November 2019 can dissolve the Parliament in February 2020.
    By December 2019 itself the new President can fix the date for the Parliamentary Election and announce the country of his desire to dissolve the Parliament in February 2020.
    Provincial Councils should be abolished. They don’t serve any purpose. They are only paid holiday homes for lethargic politicians.

  • 8
    2

    if that kind of explosions can take you away not leaving you guys to mislead this nation. THat would be the best at this moment. Unahapuluwas of your nation would fish even on muddy waters is not overlooked by anyone with a brain the size of a needle head.
    You are just disgusting sort of a living being, who has nothing better to sense than making every efforts to mislead the vulnerable.
    You perfectly know how Rajapakshe had been and what they would be once they are brought back.
    They should rather be dissapeared from our sights if we at all walk to a nation free from extremism.

    • 1
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      Big Bang may come! Old King conducted the election two years ahead because it was already predicted that time. Old King ran out of Temple Tree House thinking that he was escaping but UNP will be get caught. Thero did know the existence of it from that time. So, Thero is not guilty of tell the Big Bang Theory. But Thero’s guilt is he was hiding it during the Chitanta time but exposing only in Yahapalanaya time.
      Sinhala Buddhist gave up Old Royals on and gave the power to Ranil to clean up the Augeas Stables. But in 2015, Ranil added additional Singapore pigs to stables, but did not clean. Ranil gave his “Body, Soul, and Wealth” to save Old Royal from the time he took the minority government in Jan 2015. Until now, he did everything possible for him to save Chitanta Royals. Ranil’s greed for EP re-geminated only within past one year, after his 2017 successful year of duping to West. America doesn’t believe Ranil anymore but wants Old Brother Prince or Ponny stand for it again. So, fearing by the new developments, Ranil wants Ponny to become LaO minister and arrest anybody, who would compete against him in the 2020 EP election. As New King is, for the past one year, eyeing to become EP, he too fearing of Ranil would prison him if he appeared in Ranil’s path. So, under the Lankawe Political ethics, it is ok for New King to be the first and finish off Ranil. That is why Thero is setting up between Ranil and New King, hoping if they neutralize one another, Old Brother Prince will be safe. So he is right in saying Ranil is attempting to prison his enemies and hoping to win an election that is unwinnable-in Ranil’s opinion.

    • 0
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      So the oracle has spoken:
      “Either the politics shifts to accommodate the economic imperatives, which means an early parliamentary election to stabilize the situation “

      So NOW we know why Mahinda called an early election in 2015 !
      We can take DR. DJ’s word on this at least.

  • 8
    3

    Explosion is what happened in January 2015. Violence, corruption in every corner, brutality, attack on human rights, rule of drug dealers, complete shut down of freedom of speech, freedom of movement, white van abduction and murders, and every aspect of rule of law, justice destroyed. This nation do not have anything that horror again. There is peace, there is freedom, democracy is in practice.

    • 2
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      Ajith:
      There was an explosion before that too but it happened in France. DJ (parasite) tried to cover the stain of the explosion whitewashing the embassy and residence but got thrown away all the way to Sri Lanka.
      Still crying to get back.

  • 6
    2

    Dayan the racist is at it again!

    There is no explosion Dayan. Sorry to disappoint you. People are far more peaceful and inclusive than you would like them to be.

  • 14
    2

    The Public Racist’s Doomsday Scenarios, a failed Nostradamus of the South keeps pressing the panic button:

    An Explosion Is Coming

    The Opposition’s 20th Amendment Dilemmas

    One More Avurudu To Go! – The UNP-SLFP Merger & The Mahinda-Ranil Choice

    Second SLFP Schism: A Survival Strategy

    Mahinda’s Maneuver Triggers SLFP’s Karuna Rebellion – And UNP’s Electoral Nandikadal Looms

    How The TNA & Foreign Powers Saved Ranil – And The Guarantee He Signed In Return

    Why The SLFP’s Last Chance Of Survival Is Today!

    Who Won?

    D-Day In Parliament

    The Tamil & Muslim Parties & The No-Confidence Motion

    UNP Crisis, SLFP Choices & Sri Lanka’s Endless Political Karmic Cycle

    Reform & Reality: The Intellectual & Ideological Crisis Of Yahapālanaya

    Putin, Mahinda & Gotabaya



    In The Name Of God, Go! – Credibility & Stability Need A Change Of Prime Minister
    ..
    The Hard Take Down: How The Government May End

    No Confidence: The Reasons Ranil Must Go
    ……..
    The Maroon & The Blue: My Empathy With & Fears For The SLFP

    Coalition Crack-UP: UNP Putsch, SLFP Rebellion
    …………
    How To Hold Out: Lessons From A Labyrinth
    ………..
    The Rising: Nugegoda Feb 18th

    In case if the racists runs out of titles here are some I found earlier:

    The End of Time
    The leaders of UNP, TNA, …JVP, SLFP, …. JHU and Alien abduction
    Apocalypse How, Now and Nigh
    Save Gota Prevent Global Collapse
    Bring Back Gota to stop next global killer
    Stop Sambandan to stop plastic pollution
    AKD overdose and the import of opioid
    Who will insert wedge between Tamils and Muslims, Muslims and Sinhalese, Sinhalese and Tamils?

    “I think, therefore I am” – Descartes
    “I carry Mahinda’s b***s Therefore I exist”- Dayan

    • 0
      0

      This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our Comment policy.For more detail see our Comment policy https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/comments-policy-2/

    • 2
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      Keyboard Vedda
      :D :D :D I couldn’t stop laughing. A good collection of the titles of Dayan’s articles. Poor Dayan. Don’t be too harsh on him.
      .
      No matter how many more articles are added to the list, a Rajapaksa won’t become the next President.

  • 8
    2

    Dear Dr. DJ
    “An Explosion Is Coming ” Blah, blah, and more blah.
    Jesus is also said to be coming, so we’ll wait and see, shall we?

    • 6
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      old codger

      Dayan the public racist types volumes. He is a prolific copy typist. It is unfair to dismiss his typing with your two lines.

      • 0
        1

        N.V,
        Personally, I’d put my money on Jesus Christ arriving earlier.

        • 1
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          oldcodger

          Also seeing Elvis Presley at a Hamburger joint in the USA, Subhas Chandra Bose in Russian Gulag, VP in Eritrea, ………………….

  • 6
    2

    Can all the Rajapaksa family return all the wealth earned by illegal means be returned to Mother Lanka before he tries to hoodwink the poor public especially the Sinhala Buddhists

  • 0
    0

    This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our Comment policy.For more detail see our Comment policy https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/comments-policy-2/

  • 11
    2

    Simply Brilliant NV

    A negative mind will never give you a positive life.
    So keep on dreaming Dr dayan.

  • 1
    2

    Not worth the space CT has given DJ. All about explosions after eating jak seeds [kos ata].

    • 1
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      Dionysus

      Though it is irritatingly waste of space don’t you agree with us that we are having fun in these pages. By denying Dayan the space you are trying to deny us fun. Please don’t do that.

      I am looking forward to having fun also with HLD Mahindapala, Sanja De Silva Jayatilleka, Rajeewa Jayaweera , Ambassador Bandu de Silva (who is the only person knows languages have seen Hugh Nevill’s collection in London), Shenali D Waduge (the most unhappy female typist from Sri Lanka, unfortunately she does not type for CT) , Shamindra Ferdinando (does not know if he is coming or going, an expert on recycling dated stuff) , C.A. Chandraperuma (yet to write a book on Gota’s b***s), ……………….

  • 2
    1

    So obsessed with the Medamulana Cartel.
    Anti Ranil – Pro Sirasa/KIlli Mahendran

  • 2
    1

    PhD – permanent head damage, Dr DJ looks like you are living proof of this, you seriously consult a doctor

  • 0
    0

    This comment was removed by a moderator because it didn’t abide by our Comment policy.For more detail see our Comment policy https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/comments-policy-2/

  • 1
    1

    Thero is pretending to be analyzing the down turn of Lankawe‘s economic situation. But he knows nothing about Economics, other than little Blah, Blah Cuban Communism. So, he is bluffing from start to end with the Old Brother Prince’s inglorious, murderous, blemishes. Thero happened to read about the Rupee’s down fall in Colombo Media. So, he is just trying to repeat it in CT. Though he is a Communist he did not know that Communist countries, who normally suffer by export problems, artificially keep their currency devalued. This was the reason for prolonged fright of Hillary Vs China, when she was the State Secretary. A value loosing currency need not to be bad always provided the other factors are favorable. But in Lankawe, all factors are doing badly as per most of the economists. One argument going is, Rupee is falling against dollar, but Pakistani Rs like other currencies also have fallen worse than Rupee, so this is nothing. This talk is first trying to assume that Pakistani Economy is doing very well but only the currency falling against Dollar. Then one don’t decide Lankawe economic situation by checking how the other currencies are doing against Dollar. That determine only how the American economy is doing. One has to check how all currencies are doing against Rupee to determine how the Lankawe economy is doing. Including Pakistani Rs, all known currencies have appreciated against Rupee, for the past few years. Egypt, Nigeria, Turkey, Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela all had their currencies diminished during this periods, as the theorist claimed. Let’s look at Egypt: Yes, Rupees appreciated because Egypt devalued its currency. Mexico got stumbled with President Trump and its currency faced problem, against all currencies. Others are same situation like Lankawe, they too facing economic down turn. So, without any doubt, this is a dire situation for Lankawe whole economic growth.

  • 0
    1

    Here are some Threro’s stipulations we may like to look:
    “ This faction-ridden government contains hardliners who think that it would be both possible and prudent to jail its political opponents, especially Gotabhaya Rajapaksa,
    …………………………..
    Then there are those others in government who think that the present leader of the UNP actually has a chance at winning next year’s election.
    ……………………….
    The economic time bomb is ticking because the economic necessity of a new, legitimized, popular government runs up against the attempt to entrench this government in office, persecute its opponents and win an unwinnable election.
    ……………………………
    The avoidance of an explosion requires that the safety-valves be opened up soon. “

    Thero de Silva the Malayalee Horoscope reader predicting using his plagiarism that a bomb is about to blast off. That may be possible (Or rather with a great kind heart, let him have the credit, we too believe so). It is out there in all the Colombo Media, this story telling. But, here come his prophetical problem solving strategy: His solution for this problem is opening the value. But sadly, that is where he is deviating from his reasonably dependable plagiarism to pure Sumandasa Abeygunawardena’s horoscope reading.

  • 1
    1

    When Nuraicholai failed, Old King was yearning to get it repaired by India. His 50 computers failed. It ended as he giving away the Colombo Pong Cing. The net result of that was every one of his consultants warned him of a bomb blasting before the 2016 election. Sumandasa Abeygunawardena and possibly the Malayalee Horoscope reader Thero too, advised Old King to open the valve before the 2016, the blast off date. The result of that was Old King blown away in 2015, itself, which was two year before the predicted time to the Big Bang. Now Thero is reading from the same chart to Ranil and telling him too to open the value, about two years ahead of his predicted blast off time (Jan, 2020). Before we go any further on this, let’s quickly deviate to a side point. “The Jan, 2015, election went wrong; ok; but why or how the Big Bang of 2016 also went wrong? If it was a 6 months ahead or behind would have been never mind, but why nothing showed up? First, a quick fix was given by Ex. CB Governor Mahendran & Aloysius. The immediate bankruptcy was evaded by the fraudulent fund raising. When it was thought raising Rs1B was not possible, they dug out more than Rs10B. Then Colombo Pong Cing and Hangbangtota sale put China’s jack back to earth. Above that all, West thought it had got the power change it wanted and tore off the OISL’s report which declared the 42 most prominent figures of Lankawe government as war criminals. Now many, including Thero, are thinking that this Yahapalanaya’s white washing is not going hold to the tsunami that is about to strike soon. The economy that is further damaged by the CB looting and ETCA dodging combined with the Yahapalanaya’s cheating on plotting with China may, when the Bing Bang blast off this time, make the effect felt harsher.

  • 1
    1

    We are back on our path. Why Thero is rushing Ranil to open the valve? There is no sure of who is going to stand for election from Thero’s side. There is no guarantee of anything on the next years’ election at this time. Further Thero himself suspecting if Old Brother Prince try to stand, irrelevant of any of his credential to his electability, he would be prosecuted and thrown in prison. (That could an advice to Old Brother prince of the risk of running in the election, probably a hidden one, without telling it to his face and earn his wrath for a white van trip.)
    We don’t have to search hard for that answer, Thero and his cliques advised Old King if he had to stay life time president he had to have the election before that time’s Big Bang. So here Thero goes “the attempt to entrench this government in office, persecute its opponents and win an unwinnable election. “ What Thero saying here is that Ranil may try to copycat their advice to Old King, that is how to entrench on power for life time by running the election two years ahead. ” Well Thero is too smart, so he is pinching the child and rocking the cradle, too.
    Now Ranil is easing the control on UNP’s leadership. He has agreed with New King to hand over ministries’ responsibilities. There may be nothing special on these. One may argue Ranil is preparing with New King for another CC gimmick. One may argue, Ranil is rescinding the responsibility of the cabinet, so that he too can slip out of these troubles just as way Old King washed off all these. Ranil is probably wondering, who will be saved, who will be washed off, when the delayed Big Bang blast off as Thero predicting and the tsunami water enters into the Diyawanna Lake.

  • 1
    0

    MAithripala-Ranil govt is talking about megaplans of economy. but for whom. Is it for rice, coconut, onion, potato or spcies etc.,. It is for foreign companies What is purpsoe of the stock exchange, adjusting prime rates if it exists and rinint money , getting loans etc.. the requirement is providing economic opportunities to companies from overseas, mostly from west. IF you here, everfything is being handed over to foreign companies. surveying, land registry is for intruding a foreign company, building construction is carried out by foreign companies, SAITM I heard is letting students go overseas for education, govt even subsidize expensive prodicts brought overseas in order to make the businessman happy and earn more profits and to make the foreign embassy happy, beczause, sri lanka buys their expensive and unwanted products. This is is long. the govt say Srilanka is Economic hub, digital hub, but, it is for foreign companies from the bankrupt countries, who uses sri lanka to get rich Prime rate is for the stock market but becuse of the bond scam because of which probably they had to pay that private loan the govt took from rich individual from the west

  • 1
    1

    I heard even INdia is talking the same problem. In INdia, they say Every thing DESI or APNA. Even Indians in Sri lanka says, they want to eat their stuff because that is the best. On the otherhand, The govt says buy outside if it is expensive we subsidize it or cheaper it.

  • 1
    1

    Dayan Jayatilleka in para 2 says ~ “………a social explosion caused by…………political factors. Those political factors will not be to do with the Opposition but entirely with the government………”.
    The political factors were inflicted on us by ALL successive GoSL for the past seventy years. Dayan is about the only person who attributes this to RW.
    We are worried that we are left in a pathetic situation of having to choose between two baddies. Dayan says the MR team is better, corruption is respectable, the language/religion-divide is the ONLY answer!
    .
    The man learned a thing or two about explosives during one of his scatter brain ‘holiday’ with EPRLF and is inciting his followers.
    Native Veddah has listed the main ramblings by Dayan. Read one and you have read the bloody lot!

  • 1
    0

    These are difficult days!

    The typical Avurudu weather, scorching heat, humid, damp, wet and people going mad. So it would be fair to excuse Dr D J for his ramblings. Picture the poor man sitting there in his underpants, taking out his frustration on the keyboard, looking around for his next subject. On cue his neighbour lets rip with a volley of explosions brought on by three helpings of the cooks’ kos-atta sambola. Mind you, this government is currently in a quandary, and has no clue as to whether it is the head or the arse of the parading political donkey.

    No doubt things will be clearer in the days post Vesak – Vesak? in April?

    This country is going to the dogs!

    • 1
      0

      Spring Koha old chap

      Where are you hiding and from whom are you hiding?
      We lack fruitful enlightening discussions in this forum. We need people like you with knowledge, experience and a true sense of history. You of course been there, seen that, done that and should share your experience with us and tell us off where appropriate.

      I suspect you are into too much Salsa, Cuban cigars, Saoco, … chauffeur driven Chevrolet Bel Air classics, …….. wake up the liberals need you.

  • 0
    0

    Dear CT admin/staff, after going through your comment policy I am posting this out of concern.Please have a knowledgeable person to screen the comments in making decisions to censure. I have been reading CT for past few years and have read some of the comments by viewers which in my opinion were totally inappropriate and unacceptable.It is surprising to see a two line comment from me ( please refer the dictionary for any doubts) was found inappropriate to print. My comment to Dayans article titled ” An explosion is coming” which was dramatic with intentions to capture the viewers attention. And my reply was cynical (not at all personal) querying whether it was his verbal farting(again please refer ENGLISH dictionary for meaning of fart). Now if CT found this two liner to be inflammatory then definitely you need to look at other comments to know the true meaning of inflammation. If this attitude of CT continues the interest to read or comment will not be of any worth, Thank you.for your attention.

  • 0
    0

    Thank You CT, That too being prompt, I have not experienced of any timely action in Lankawe while I was living there.So it is a surprise, please keep it up, We citizens need your services.Also please censure including me if convinced of not adhering to comment policy.

  • 1
    1

    I am sure every one who read this exploded through their anus. Perhaps that’s what Dayan meant

  • 0
    1

    hope springs eternal in dayan’s breast.

  • 0
    0

    EXPLOSION—FIRE WORKS organised & sponsored by DJ’S EMPLOYER!!!

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