27 September, 2020

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An October Revolution: Political Crisis, Transition & Transformation – A Political Science Perspective 

By Dayan Jayatilleka – 

Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka

1. As the Buddha and Heraclitus, to name but two of the greatest minds have said millennia ago, the only thing permanent is change. Change is of two sorts. One is gradual, evolutionary, incremental, with things remaining on a continuum. The other is ‘ruptural’, discontinuous, and dramatic. The first kind of change is quantitative. The other is qualitative. There two are not separated by a Chinese Wall. There is a transition from one to another. Ruptural, qualitative change is preceded by quantitative, gradual change. The signs and symptoms are always there to be read. The writing is always discernible on the wall, except for those who cannot or do not wish to see.

2. Political change, however dramatic, usually takes place through routine means of periodic election and according to the rules of the game. However, in any country, when the rules of the game are violated, for example, one party commences life as an unelected minority government, the majority in the Opposition is deprived of the official status and role of the Parliamentary Opposition and the post of Leader of the Opposition, elections are postponed etc., then the political game either moves outside the rules, or exceptional procedures embedded in the rules themselves kick in, just as there are emergency exits on an airplane.

3. Though it may or may not be traceable to Einstein, the saying that the definition of lunacy is to keep repeating the same thing while expecting a different result is a truism. If, 15 years ago, economic policies which hurt the living standards of the people and external, ethnic and security policies which affronted the national identity of a majority, combined to make a set of people deeply unpopular and vulnerable to intervention by the elected executive, and met with a disastrous end, a similar course of action 15 years later will inspire a similar outcome—an outcome endorsed by the electorate 15 years ago and likely to be repeated 15 years later. 

4. A leader who is elected by the country as a whole always has greater and higher legitimacy than one who is elected on a far narrower, localized basis.

5. Everything has to be located within the prevailing system and understood systemically. The rules and norms of the Westminster system either do not operate or operate only in a limited sense, in a different system. In an executive presidency, however reformed and modified, the center of gravity is the Presidency and the legislature, both upper and lower houses, have a different, subordinate relationship with the executive, which is located outside and above the legislature. The executive is relatively autonomous of the legislature. It is illogical and unproductive to seek to apply the logic of a Westminster system to a system in which the only leader, who is elected by the majority of the country taken as a whole, is the President who therefore is entrusted with executive power. In such a system it is the President who ultimately decides in an exceptional situation.

6. In some countries the political system is Presidential and unipolar. In other countries the political system is Presidential but is multi-polar, with, however, the Presidency being the hegemonic or dominant among the poles. The center of gravity in a Westminster model is the Parliament. The center of gravity in a presidential system is the Presidency—which is why the system is called Presidential! While a Presidency after reform may not enjoy a quasi-monopoly or even be as dominant as it once was, it is still preponderant in terms of power.

7. All politics is, in the final analysis, a matter of state power, and state power is different from government power. In a presidential system, the elected executive is the principle wielder of state power. 

8. State power is always politico-military, not purely a matter of legislative arithmetic. Mao may have overstated it a bit when he said ‘All political power flows from the barrel of a gun’, but as a philosopher, politico-military leader and poet, he got to the crux of things and expressed it pithily. What he said is essentially true even in a democracy insofar as the elected president is also the Minister of Defense and the Commander-in Chief of the Armed Forces. 

9. While state power is always ultimately politico-military, political power in general always derives from and rests upon the people. The overwhelming weight of evidence of political change the world over proves irrefutably that a combination of economic policies which generate popular hardship while also hurting the national entrepreneurial class, political policies which cause or signal a retrenchment of the national state, external policies which cede control of national assets and/or territory to foreign powers or entities (Brussels in some cases, Geneva in others), taken together or in any permutation or combination, generates a social and national backlash leading to dramatic change. 

10. Such changes almost always take place through or are endorsed at elections, resulting in the victory of populism, usually nationalist-populism, be it of the Left, Right, Center, center-left or center-right. This global dynamic of contemporary history which goes back to Russia in the 1990s and the Russian people’s durable, repeated, continuing rejection of the economic liberalism (‘shock therapy’) and West-appeasing policies of that decade, are unknown to or ignored only by the politically illiterate or ignorant, and they have obviously ignored it at their very considerable political peril.   

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Latest comments

  • 22
    2

    wait for a while old boy., Sajin Vaas will be there as the new (unofficial) Foreign Minister again and start packing your bags sooner than later…..

    • 13
      1

      Dayan J Alzheimer,
      Political Science? You and Science have nothing to do with each other. Science is fact based. Your “science” is all about spin-doctoring. You are utterly biased. Your findings are not fact-based nor are they apolitical. You are a shameless embarrassment to science or anything decent for that matter. Do stay in Moscow. Do not hesitate to freeze your bottom either.
      Cheers!

    • 2
      0

      Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka,

      This is an October re-shuffle by the triple traitor, Sirisena, who has earned the titles of Traitor, Sevalaya and Mala-Perethaya.

      The Circle of Sirisena is: Says something, announcers something else, and does something completely different. and 6.2 million did not know, but knows now.

  • 18
    5

    Old Codger

    What is this man upto an on about?
    Could you tell me what he is saying.
    Can you get this man a job in Gulag, away from Moscow and perhaps in Siberia?

    Did you ask him to teach you politics in gobbledygook?
    I thought he is negotiating the commission due to Sirisena from the purchase of unseaworthy naval ship.

    • 9
      0

      C’mon Native! ……… You should know his MO by now! ……….. He is just hedging his bets both ways.

      • 7
        0

        nimal fernando

        What sort of job would you recommend for Sajin Vaas, assuming you have or haven’t read this typing.

        • 4
          0

          “assuming you have or haven’t read this typing.”

          I have this “gift” :)) …….. to suss people out ………. especially Lankans …….. from a few sentences they utter/write …………. most I have never even met and don’t know from Adam

          It’s not a gift I’m comfortable with ………but gotta learn to live with it

          No, I never read Dayan ………. except the headings ………… What for? ………. If you are an adult and don’t live in a well

          Dayan has his own “readership” ………. count me out …………. I’m not one of them :))

          • 1
            0

            nimal fernando

            I am sorry you haven’t answer my question.

    • 9
      1

      NV,
      Let’s give credit to DJ for writing a masterpiece of non-committal deception, cloaked in his usual high-sounding verbiage. It could mean different things to different people.
      Simply hedging his bets, you see. The English-speaking equivalent of ASP Liyanage.
      He’s managed to oust the Defence Attache, a decorated young man who was sent to that position to stop him leaving the Air Force for commercial aviation. Yes, I have known him since he was a kid.

      • 3
        0

        OC,

        I warned you to convert your rupees to US$ – at 145slr to US$ ….. or so – and keep them under your pillow but the high SL interest rates tempted you!

        The rate is 65% in Argentina! ……… taking your advice which Ramona seconded …….. I invested in A. pesos! :))

        Convert to US$ ………. it’s better late than never ………it’s heading towards 250 or more! (with Mahinda and Sirisena’s economic expertise) ………. Unless Dayan convince you to convert them to Roubles and keep them under his pillow:))

        • 2
          0

          Nimal F,
          I do have a few very old Dollars from my salad days in the desert!
          But let’s discuss your argument with a stake of $1000 in 1980:
          Remember that the interest on $ is 2 to 4% but LKR has varied between 25 and 10% (say 17 average).
          So in 2018 you would have $ 3122, which is 543228 LKR.
          But if you converted to LKR in 1980 (at 16 per $), 16000LKR
          you have 4,615,880.14 in 2018, which is $26528 today.
          Looks like our rates have more than kept up with inflation.
          What do you think?

          • 0
            0

            OC,

            “with a stake of $1000 in 1980:
            Remember that the interest on $ is 2 to 4%”

            In 1980 the US long term 30 year bond yield was over 15% and the short-term was 21% ………. no kidding! ……….and the price of gold climbed over $800 ……… Japan was the economic threat – not China – and American executives were going to Japan to learn their management-methods ………. every morning calisthenics before work! …………How times change

            According to my calculations the long-term depreciation of the rupee against the US$ is around 9%

            In 1980 if you invested $1000 in an index fund that’s indexed to the Dow-Jones ……… return 9% (roughly) ………. So 9 + 9 = 18%

            In 1980, $1000 would have bought 1 share of BRK-A …………. today $296,805 :))

            But now I am a true-believer ……… Mahinda is going to solve the depreciation of the Rupee …… as he promised ……… is there any reason to doubt him? :)))

            They say a sucker is born every minute …….. how many suckers in our 2500 year old culture? ….. 2500x365x24x60 = 22,000,000 …….. just about right!

            • 1
              0

              Nimal F,
              “In 1980 if you invested $1000 in an index fund that’s indexed to the Dow-Jones ……… return 9% (roughly) ………. So 9 + 9 = 18%”
              You forget that I live in this miraculous island, where I could do nothing of the sort. Even changing a $ 10 note in 1980 involved filling reams of forms and standing in long lines holding brass tokens.
              On the other hand, a 10 rupee share of Ceylinco Insurance is 2000 bucks today…………..
              Distilleries has performed likewise, but that’s an immoral business according to our beloved President.

              • 0
                0

                OC,

                “You forget that I live in this miraculous island”

                Unfortunately my “smart” patriotism doesn’t run so high! ………….. I avoid the miracle if I can; I travel to get away from the “motherly-love.” :))

                Recently was in Portugal; a very interesting place as they were the first to colonize; I wanted to see firsthand where Native Vedda’s and Dayan’s ancestors came from ……… few references to SL here and there; they call it CEILAO ………… it’s just like home! ……… everyone is a Fernando, Pereira, Silva, Rodrigo, Costa, Dias ………… I was the only one with a full-blooded Lankan surname walking around; a fish out of water

                So you were in the desert in the old-days? ……… Any interesting places to see? …….. I’ve only seen Dubai.

                • 0
                  0

                  Nimal F,
                  Yes, I did my time in Saudi Arabia , which was just coming out of the stone age. There are interesting places, but people who ask questions are not allowed to see them.
                  However, that’s why I can afford to spend hours on CT.

            • 1
              0

              Nimal F,
              “In 1980 if you invested $1000 in an index fund that’s indexed to the Dow-Jones ……… return 9% (roughly) ………. So 9 + 9 = 18%”
              You forget that I live in this miraculous island, where I could do nothing of the sort. Even changing a $ 10 note in 1980 involved filling reams of forms and standing in long lines holding brass tokens.
              On the other hand, a 10 rupee share of Ceylinco Insurance is 2000 bucks today…………..
              Distilleries has performed likewise, but that’s an immoral business according to our beloved Presidente.

      • 4
        0

        old codger

        ” a decorated young man who was sent to that position to stop him leaving the Air Force for commercial aviation. “

        I thought it was punishment transfer for your young friend warm weather to utterly cold open freezer, temperature ranging between -5 and -10.
        Would you like to live in a cold country like that?

        If the Russians had ever read Dayan’s typing they know how easy for them to sell scrap metals as modern battle ship.

        Seriously, doesn’t the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have any suitable candidate for the post? Or is he on a Clandestine operation?

        • 2
          0

          Native,
          “Seriously, doesn’t the Ministry of Foreign Affairs have any suitable candidate for the post? Or is he on a Clandestine operation?”
          There are no suitable candidates for ANY responsible job in this country. Put it down to our great education system. Just look at the drafters of the 19th Amendment. It can mean 3 different things in each language, 9 different things altogether.
          For absolute proof, just look at Pujith Jayasundara the “IGP”

          • 3
            0

            old codger

            “Just look at the drafters of the 19th Amendment. It can mean 3 different things in each language, 9 different things altogether.”

            Good for the crooks.
            They could interpret it according to their wishes, needs and interests, depending on whom you will appoint to the highest court of the land. I might prefer Sarath N or Mohan. How about you if you were in Mahinda’s shoe?

            Gota has already brought Gota into his court.
            Puji gave him a Nazi salute and heard reciting Heil Hitler.

            Please listen to:
            Why Sri Lankan President made anti India Rajapaksha Prime Minister?
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hLVCEsDh654

            Subramanian Swamy speaks on current Sri Lankan political crisis
            https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8m3TFLCnJgs

  • 11
    0

    i know you want to remind the new mob that you are in russia,but please do your duty and get the defence treaty with us ratified.The russian armed forces are ready to defend you like syria.

    • 3
      0

      Valery Gerasimov
      Dayan has continued commenting on CT articles. Recently this Valery Gerasimov followed Dayan with his or her own comment.
      The English is just about as good as Dayan.
      How come Valery has not been hired by Russian government? Russia knows that Valery’s grasp of Political Science 101 is poor.

    • 0
      0

      VG
      Is there a likely threat of military or terrorist meddling by the US?

      • 1
        0

        SJ

        US yes,terrorist no.I’am not allowed to talk much more.Your man here seems more interested in writing than getting the treaty ratified by your president and it is sitting on his table for the last 23 days.I am also under pressure by my boss P.

        PS.It was your president who wanted the defence treaty.Now we are keen to show our latest military hardware in action in your skies,waters and land.

    • 0
      0

      Valery G. – Unfortunately, this bogus Dr is too busy visiting restricted areas to satisfy his biological needs. I am sure Medamulana Meeharaka will join him if he gets the opportunity to visit Russian President
      Put-in!

  • 12
    6

    This war monger public racist
    cannot remember the phrase Unelected Prime Minister which he often used in early 2015, forgetting tonly the MP’s vote of confidence or no confidence seal the fate of the prime minister in the parliament.

    I wonder why this man is unable to use the phrase at this juncture.

    • 3
      4

      Lick your wounds Lansi Vedda.
      Your fifth column agenda is f***ed now.
      Go to a corner and get Arlene to lick your wounds.

      • 3
        1

        Bamba Activist

        “La Bamba”
        Para bailar la bamba,
        Para bailar la bamba,Se necesita una poca de gracia.
        Una poca de gracia para mi para ti.
        Arriba y arriba
        Y arriba y arriba, por ti sere,
        Por ti sere.
        Por ti sere.
        Yo no soy marinero.
        Yo no soy marinero, soy capitan.
        Soy capitan.
        Soy capitan.

        Bam-ba-bamba,
        Bam-ba-bamba,
        Bam-ba-bamba,

        Para bailar la bamba,
        Para bailar la bamba,
        Se necesita una poca de gracia.
        Una poca de gracia para mi para ti.
        Arriba, arriba.

  • 8
    3

    October Revolution!
    What a title for a shameless coup.

  • 2
    0

    Mr.Jayatilleke

    Instead of trying to educate us on Political science,why not try to relate your theories vis a vis whats taking place here in Sri Lanka for a change ? you must be regretting that your current position has placed some restrictions on airing your “unbiased” views isn’t it ?

  • 1
    0

    Its very sad situation DR. Dayan. WHy SLMC and TNA support is RW tarnishing nation. What I think only UNP can take the country as whole. Something missing in somewhere still Sri Lankan not identified.

  • 2
    0

    What he in short say is that the executive president is more powerful than the Prime Minister despite 19A. In a way he is right, the President is directly elected by the majority of the people, while the Prime Minister is elected from a narrower base. The fact that executive President is the Minister of Defence gives him enormous power. As I write the news come in that the President has prorogued parliament till November 16the November. This gives Mahinda Rajapaksa time for horse trading. Sirisena is a specialist in this business going by the past. As far Sirisena is concerned this is his second stabbing. The first was when he stabbed Mahinda in the back in back 2014.

  • 5
    1

    Revolution or unconstitutional coup

  • 2
    2

    apparently minority parties are supporting Ranil.
    July ’83 again Dayan

  • 2
    1

    the guy is back wow using big words that no one not even con man uncle athula can understand

  • 5
    1

    Trapez Artist or Karanam Dayan,

    Shut up your mouth as we do not want your bickering anymore.

  • 2
    1

    This person has gone mad.Always dropping names and trying to say things which can’t be understood by any sane person.my understanding is rajapakshe won a local elections hence according to him he is the real people representative.ranil Wickramasinghe did not have the majority on his own hence he can’t be considered as elected by majority of people.This person is bootlicker of worst kind.but there is a method in his madness.he licks only the boots of rajapakshe .but he will be disappointed this time no ambassadorship to Paris or berne.he has to keep on writing paeans to get the lord’s attention

  • 4
    1

    I wish Mahinda was ELECTED by people and assumed duties as the Prime Minister amidst their rapturous applause and cheering.
    I wish he walked to Temple Trees with dignity rather than being under obligation to the very man who back-stabbed him.

    • 3
      1

      Champa,
      Champa
      Mahinda never go to the people.First he paid billions to LTTE. Then he paid billions to Russians, Chinese & Un secretary to proetct him from International Community for massacring over 50000. Now he again paid billions to Sirisena to come back to power. However, Gota and Namal are the loosers in this battle. Mahinda said recently, the next president is not from his family. Sirisena said many times Mahinda attempted several times to murder him. Now poor Mahinda have to serve under him. Mahinda cannot escape from Sirisena because he has the power to throw any PMs even if there is a majority in the parliament. It is time for Mahinda to serve as a “golaya” to Sirisena. What a change?

    • 3
      0

      “I wish Mahinda was ELECTED by people”

      True! ……… I recon this will be the beginning of the end of his “popularity.” How he obtained “office.” ……… Couple to that the impending economic tsunami – which no one can solve – he promised to solve with the usual false-promises ………….. of the idiotic Lankan pols …………

      The looming economic troubles are beyond the scope of the average Lankan voter …………and beyond people like Dayan too; which is not surprising!

      I suppose ……….. poor Lanka is blessed more than one might think.

  • 4
    1

    Thero trying to be like the cat on the wall. He is not sure to predict erratic behavior of the Brother Princes. He knows in one of the coming days, France may dawn in Russia and Vodka may turn into sour wine.
    He mentioned about Chandrika firing Ranil 15 years ago and implied the same need had come and New Kings thus justified. Chandrika only proposed abolishing EP system, but did nothing. New King was said had brought substantial change (19A) in the way the constitution worked 15 years ago and said to be he self-curtailed his authority. So for a man with any morality or for a man with any sense of legality, but other than opportunist Thero, Chandrika’s dismissal of Ranil and New King’s dismissal of Ranil are separated by a Chinese wall.

    ” In some countries the political system is Presidential and unipolar.” One should note here Thero purposefully refrained from using “ some Democratic Counties”. This is the basic presumption Thero used to explain his unfocused general gibberish. This essay did not discuss, even at the level of Lasksiri Fernando intelligence, the article 42(4). There is no specific subject matter under preview is talked. So there is nothing we can say about this unfocused garrulous gasbag talk.

  • 2
    1

    Basically anything we can say more on this dismissal is already said in the essays and comments of CT. We just can regurgitate what Colombo Media said in Jan, 2015 and latter. The Media never had any prove while telling these stories, though those are widely taken as true by general public. Interestingly, when NPC was dissolved last week, one member, before he left the chamber for the last time, said the wise of an old Stanza “Nandhavanathil orr aandi”. We can repeat that to Ranil.
    Ranil couldn’t come to power. So, West used New King’s boat to float him on the waves. On the morning of Jan 8th 2015, Ex. US State Sec. Kerry called at Temple Tree House, Old King and issued his waning. On the Morning of 9th Old King, even before the election results were released, running away from TT house. Ranil went into there by 4:00 AM to make Old King feel the ground under his feet. Depending on Ranil, Old left behind So many hundreds of computers, many thousand documents, even the bunker used to operate the CSN. Latter many documents for evidences for criminal activities all in all government departments, CID’s investigation centers were destroyed by Yahapalanaya to safe guard Chitanta goverment. US under Secretary Biswas many times offered Ranil and Mangala all supports, duly guessed even military backup, to investigate Old Royals’ crimes. Ranil broke up with West mainly because his stand to save Old Royals. Now a “ Latest Royals have emerged merging Old Royals and New Royals. Murderous Chitanta and Crook Yahapalanaya and formed new Yahapalanaya – Chitanta merging Kooni and Sakuni.
    Ranil is now out, not according Westminister not even under Cuban Communist principles.
    Adhai koothadi koothadi pottudaithaandi

    • 1
      2

      Oh, it is morning in New York! Mallaiyuran has found time to type stupid comments.

  • 4
    1

    All bravo would be seen on Monday when stock and currency market open. All start to bleed and all would be in for a time. All foreigners and most local would start to unload their holdings before they get burnt alive, then the real music would start. Uncertainties breeds lot of volatilities and chaos in the markets. If things are not resolved amicably, there going to be lot of consequences for the country and people, there might be penalties, and possibility of losing the hard won GSP+ facility too.

  • 3
    1

    What fucking shit revolution you donkey idiot is taking about. This is a harakiri by both Mahinda and Sirisena, they would face the music when the world squeeze their balls for going against civilised norms and democracy. The innocent sufferers are the people owing to their indecent greedy power grab.

  • 2
    1

    Dr. DJ, Well argued. You have given me pointers to use in my own writings. Do keep working on this kind of intellectual discourse and do try not to talk of your aunts and uncles ad nauseam.

  • 3
    1

    This is not a bloody revolution, it’s really utter power greed, and illegal and unconstitutional power grabbing. They don’t give any shit to anyone, this is not about the people or the country, and it’s their pure power hunger to loot the country. Initially Sirisena wanted to be a Mandela or Martin Luther King, and publicly proclaimed to the world that he is a one term president but after tasting the office, he changed his tune. He asked Ranil and the UNP to back him for the next term but they turned it down. Then he turn to MR and cabals, and they grabbed it as a good break to get to power by illegal and unconstitutional means. If all is done through due process, legally and constitutionally, we don’t have any issues about it. Ranil or UNP are nobody to us, and we are not waiting for their table crumbs to fall like you. It all about human decency and good norms one should practice when holding the high office. It’s all about people and the country. We should be able to hold our heads high when we go about in the world. When things are like this, do any Sri Lankan face the world with any respect and dignity. When things are turning around the corners, these rascals are ruining everything. Lonely Planet named SL the best to travel in 2019 but already the British High Commission issued the travel advisory, see the damage done. See the plight of those in the travel trade, stocks and currency too would tumble when markets open on Monday morning due this instability. See the collateral damage they are inflicting on the country, and you dump fool calling this revolution but it’s a real destruction of the country.

  • 1
    0

    Big words to confuse and condition. The simple fact , the same rogues will be back on the saddle, Malawana house, Matara Brown Hills property, Having Twin passports and two birthdays, unaccounted money, Daisy aunty’s Bag of gems, building memorials for your parents with public money,money taken in gunnybags, Greek bonds, sil redi for Rs. 600 million of our money will be buried like Lasantha, Ekneligoda and Ruggerite Thajudeen. The saint Duminda will be out on medical grounds, Sajin will plunder this time in billions not in millions. Gamarala will grin and wait.

  • 2
    0

    Be ready to lose GSP +
    Be ready for Indians to back Ranil
    This is an unconstitutional coup.

    DJ has to bark for his supper as an Ambassador.

    Ranil has the numbers 113; and that is why Haal Sira prorouged Parliament. Stop spewing you garbage filth here DJ

  • 1
    0

    Dayan Jayatilleka calls it “An October Revolution ……..” .
    Dayan cannot tell the difference between a revolution and a counter-revolution. Even even even Valery Gerasimov can!

  • 3
    0

    “An October Revolution” – It started with your appointment

  • 0
    0

    Revolution re-defined? Revolutions are for the brave but this…

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