22 October, 2017

Can Mahinda Rajapaksa Win Again?

By S. I. Keethaponcalan

Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan

Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan

Uva Provincial Election and Its Implications for the Presidential Race

Significance of the recently concluded Uva election was its implications for the presidential vote, which will materialize sooner than later followed by the general election to the national legislature. Uva confirmed that the incumbent president’s chance of winning a third term will not be as easy as it was originally contended.

It was widely believed that President Mahinda Rajapaksa, who has the authority conferred by the constitution to call for a fresh presidential election after completion of four years in office, would face a snap presidential election in early 2015. The current term commenced on November 19, 2010. One of the main effects of the Uva election results is that it has augmented the need for the government to call for an early election. There are two reasons for this. One, the Uva election results confirmed that the government vote bank is gradually shrinking. The ruling party which won the Uva provincial election in 2009 with 72.39 percent of the votes and 25 seats managed to secure only 51.24 percent of the votes and 19 seats in 2014. An approximate 21 percent dent in the government votes would come as a shock to the party leadership. Of significance is the fact that in the recently held (March 2014) Western and Southern provincial council elections the government lost 12 and five seats respectively. The President therefore, needs to face and win the election before popular endorsement drips to an unmanageable level.

mahinda_rajapaksa_garlandedTwo, for the first time since the government effectively overpowered the LTTE in 2009, the main opposition party, the United National Party has gained substantial votes and seems to be in a position to electorally challenge the government. The UNP’s votes in Uva rose from 22.32 percent in 2009 to 40.24 in 2014. The government will be keen to conduct the presidential election before the UNP gains momentum based on the recent election results. Now, an early presidential election is almost confirmed as the government immediately went into action. Last week it opened a Presidential Elections Operations Room in Colombo and informed sources indicate that the annual national budget will be presented in October, which will allow the government to submit a “voter friendly” budget and permit the handouts to reach the constituents well before the election.

The fundamental significance of the Uva results, however, is that they have created some doubts about President Mahinda Rajapaksa’s chance of winning a third term. The conventional wisdom is that Rajapaksa will win the next presidential election with ease. Uva has demonstrated that it will not be a cake-walk. Despite the shocking setback, pro-government commentators who woke up the morning after the election argued that the government did not lose the election, but had won. The government won the vote with about 51 percent of the votes. In a presidential election the winner needs only 50 percent of the votes plus one. Therefore, the argument is that the Uva results do not prove that the ruling party cannot win the next presidential election. This however, is a superficial analysis, because Uva as a province does not reflect the demographic realities of the country.

Uva entails two districts, Badulla and Moneragala. Moneragala is predominantly Sinhala in nature as it has about 95 percent Sinhala people. However, Badulla to a certain extent reflects the demographic composition of the country. 73 percent of the total population in Badulla are Sinhala and the minorities form the rest. The government managed to win only 47.37 percent of the votes in Badulla. In a presidential election the whole country will serve as one electoral unit. Therefore, the government will do well to take note of the Badulla results and ethnic politics rather than the provincial results.

Sri Lankans generally vote heavily on ethnic lines. The Sri Lankan Tamils, especially since the end of the war, have demonstrated serious hostility towards the government and supported the TNA. In the Northern provincial council election the TNA secured about 80 percent of the total votes cast in the predominantly Tamil province. In the presidential election one can expect the Tamils to vote for the candidate endorsed by the TNA and TNA will not be able to support Mahinda Rajapaksa. The TNA will find it easy to endorse the UNP if Ranil Wickremesinghe is the candidate. Therefore, Rajapaksa cannot count on the Sri Lankan Tamil vote.

There is also a heavy concentration of Tamils in the Western province. The Western province Tamils traditionally vote with the UNP. In the recent past however the Democratic People’s Front, headed by Mano Ganesan, has taken control of a large chunk of this block of votes. One reason why Ganesan was able to secure the support of the Colombo Tamils is that he is seen as a pro-UNP personality. He is already working with the UNP and likely to formally endorse the UNP. The President’s standing within this block of votes is also weak.

The Sri Lankan Muslim community favored Mahinda Rajapaksa in the last presidential election and their votes, in the recent past, tend to go to the government because all of the Muslim parties are with the government currently. The Muslim dissatisfaction of the government however seems to be growing due to the recent ethnic clashes against the Muslim community. It is widely believed that Bodu Bala Sena (BBS), which is spearheading the anti-Muslim campaign, has the blessings of some of the leading elements within the government. Many Muslims believe that the government is unwilling to arrest the anti-Muslim activities of the BBS. This could easily channel the Muslim votes towards the UNP. It is imperative to note that two of the Muslim parties which are part of the government teamed up and contested the Uva election separately precisely because they knew that the Muslim votes cannot be garnered under the government symbol. The Democratic Unity Alliance (DUA) however, could not win a single seat in the Uva province. Therefore, the majority of the Muslim votes will go to the UNP.

Even in the Badulla district minority voting behavior could differ between a provincial election and the presidential election. In the Badulla district the India Tamils form about 18 percent of the total population. The Indian Tamils probably voted for the government in the Uva election because their own candidates were contesting under the government symbol. In the presidential election however they could and most probably will vote for the UNP. For example, in the 2010 presidential election the Indian Tamil majority Nuwara Eliya district went to Sarath Fonseka. In the Nuwara Eliya district Fonseka gained 52.14 percent of the vote and Rajapaksa managed only 43.77 votes. Therefore, in a presidential election the governing party is unlikely to get what it gained in the Badulla district in September 2014.

The point is, Mahinda Rajapaksa will not have adequate support from the minority communities in the forthcoming presidential election. This leads us to the pertinent question, can Mahinda Rajapaksa win the presidential election with only the Sinhala votes. Given the prevailing realities, Rajapaksa can win only if he has about 65 percent of the Sinhala votes. The ruling party was able to gain only 58.34 percent of the votes in the predominantly Sinhala district of Moneragala in the Uva election. Also, Moneragala is President Rajapaksa’s home turf. Therefore, it is unlikely that President Rajapaksa can gain the support of about 65 percent of the Sinhala votes.

Meanwhile, it is imperative to note that all anti-government votes did not go to the UNP. They also went to the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP) and a very minor portion to Sarath Fonseka’s Democratic Party (DP). The JVP fielding its own candidate in the forthcoming presidential election would hamper the UNP’s chances of winning. Meanwhile, the JVP will find it difficult to endorse the UNP as well. The DP, given its dismal performance in the Uva election, could be convinced to join the UNP under a grand opposition alliance. Therefore, in a free and fair election, Ranil Wickremesinghe has a very good chance of winning if the UNP can form an alliance with the DP and the JVP, or convince the JVP to stay away from the election, while accommodating the minority groups.

*An earlier version of this article appeared in the Eurasia Review. Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan is Chair of the Conflict Resolution Department, Salisbury University, Maryland. 

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Latest comments

  • 20
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    The Hambantota bugger cannot will legitimately but he can steal the elections again and again and again and again.

    • 8
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      Keetha, you are quite right that “the Uva election results confirmed that the government vote bank is gradually shrinking” and Mahinda Jarapassa and his clan which is looting and robbing Sri Lankans and committing ECONOMIC and FINANCIAL TERRORISM can be defeated.

      But you are wrong to think that the UNP DICTATOR Ranil Wickramasighe, the all time LOSER who is hated and despised by the Sinhala voter and who has lost 26 and counting election results can win against Mahinda Jarapassa!
      Ranil should have stepped down long ago and let someone else take over and lead the UNP. Ranil is a disgrace – Sri Lanka’s wanna be Mugabe to Rajapaksa’s Mugabe act. Ranil has messes up the UNP and now Sajith who lied about getting a degree from the London School of Economics will be its next leader.. Ranil should have groomed next generation leaders…
      The only solution is for Sobith Thero to convene the JOINT OPPOSITION with Chandrika Bandaranaiyake (CBK) to defeat Mahinda Jarapassa’s military dictatorship before it is too late.

      • 5
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        Ranil & Sajith will do every thing possible (of course covertly) to undermine opposition victory , IF Ranil were genuine what he could do is to back JVP’s claim , instead he completely ignores this very legitimate legal/ethical/moral issue and asking to expedite it like there will be no tomorrow , in reality more you delay , more the winning margin would be , but this double agent is doing the exact opposite , what is Ranil’s rationale ? what would be the right strategy to counter attack MR ? asking an early election without a common opposition candidate ??????

    • 6
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      The opposition parties in parliament should join together to prevent the Jarapassa regime from advancing the budget debate.

      Opposition parties should obstruct the presentation of the budget being presented in the house – as was done in India last year when the BJP disrupted the Parliament for months on end. Now the BJP is in power in India!

      The opposition UNP and JVP should NOT let Jarapassa present the budget earlier because the Presidential Election is invalid. The Opposition should disrupt the house and in the mean time EDUCATE Sinhala Modyas on Rajapaksa regime’s Financial TERRORISM against the people of Sri Lanka.

      Interest rates have been brought down to fund the Rajapaksa election hand outs budget based on false inflation figures..
      There is no FDI and jobless and NO credit growth today. This means that there is no growth of the REAL ECONOMY. Only the tourism sector is growing – nothing else.

      Ranil Wickramasinghe has been a totally useless and illegitimate opposition leader. JVP should get all the parties to disrupt and BOOO the illegal activities of the Jarapassa regime in the Parliament of clowns…

      • 0
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        Ranil, long John, Sajith lot will be busy at post budget dinner party with usual wining , dining and singing ! forget any form of meaningful resistance from this double agents , CT please expose Ranil’s master mind strategies , ask why Ranil is reluctant to have a common candidate ? ask why Ranil is trying to push for an early election ? ask why Ranil is not backing Sarath N silva & JVP’s logical issue of “Mahindata Baa “? ask why Ranil is not demanding to implement 17 A before the election ?

        Ranil is doing exactly the opposite , remember how dodge the 18 A ,CJ impeachment ? Ranil’s right hand man’s (chief opposition whip) embarrassing honey moon trips with MR , side lining of any potential future leaders , pseudo leadership councils , blocking the unity of the party , Ranil’s close associations with King’s family (Actually Mr Gotabaya has praised the conduct of the opposition leader ), Ranil’s continuous dismal performance and his negative image at large …….. list goes on

        CT forget Dr Sara’s irrelevant non issues , focus on Ranil , help to prevent another disaster (electing MR again) , expose Ranil and get him to the right side , it’s your rightful JOB CT !

    • 4
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      We know that Mahinda is a friend of peace loving Tamils but a stumbling block for Northern demagogues.

      • 6
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        BBs eunachs of your kind would go on licking the balls of Rajas but change of the govt will be a definity. We from SOUTHERN and other areas the majority want Raja to be marginalized and then only the peace and harmony of the country will start in this island. Taking the full credit of the war victory making every efort to paint and another picture about the prevailing problems what the buggers govt is dong is just a waste only.
        I believe crystal clear that the wastage happening today can finance the uplifment program of the poor without any puzzle. But I wish JVP will work on the nationalizing all assets grabed by Rajaa and the ministers during last 10 years.

        • 3
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          List out what Mahinda had done during his 9 year rule and the UNP had done during their 17 year rule. How can they do any better.

          Mahinda managed to do all that because he has the necessary acumen to bring about a political stability to Sri Lanka it never had. No Mahinda no political stability. You can be sure JVP will organize daily strikes, TNA will organize satyagraha, Rump LTTE will revamp Eelam fights, Anthare will organize university fights and so on.

          NGOs will be absolutely happy for they can once again call Sri Lanka a failed state and demand R2P. And Norway will be happy for they can once again be arbitrators and have a job to do.

          • 2
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            How can they do any better ?

            If you are not blind, why cant reduce all corruptions to all minimum levels and with those savings give a life to the poor of the poor ?

            If you are not talking from your other end, how dare you to even add this kind of comments. ?
            Mahinda is zero honest man we ever found in this state.
            He is an actor -fictiious figure… in restrospect people will see it clearly the way is regime went forward -not respecting any eithical and moral values.

            I never think RW or any other leader would do it with any heart. RW is the only person that can give a life to this nation. People attack him not knowing th eknwledge of the man, heis highly welcomed by UK, US and any other nations that have a police eye this world.
            We as a small poor nation, must not be swollen to show off – if we really know who we are..

            • 0
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              Supun Jayawardhana ,

              “RW is the only person that can give a life to this nation. People attack him not knowing th eknwledge of the man, heis highly welcomed by UK, US and any other nations that have a police eye this world. “

              Supun (or any one ) can you provide answers for the following queries ,

              1) why does not Ranil support Ven MS’s common candidacy notion ?
              2) why does not Ranil support Sarath N Silva/JVP ‘s logical issue ?
              3) why does Ranil want to expedite the election date ?
              4) why does not Ranil demand implementation of the 17 A (LLRC) before the election ?

              • 0
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                This is to correct in this way, I mean if CBK would not be the common candidate there is no suitable person to contest defeating the megalomaniac.
                That is what.. and having said the man RW maintain all contacts with world leaders is a truth. He is being not seen as a good figure among locals since there are complex problem within that party. I wish they decided to CBK but right at the moment it is becoming clear no CBK would be brought as common candidate. That is a greater mistake but what will be the plan B –

          • 0
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            List is made:

            a) Tsunami Embazzelment and sent the real vicitimized people in hunger
            b) War end civiliation casualtiies that amount to 120k have not yet been addresed, nor have they started any single investigations yet even if two UN resolutions were imposed consecutiviely
            c)Opposition voices and senior public servants of this country are being perseucted by his undergound networks so that they are made silent while MR ‘s picture being painted by his media units see – that the leader is higly democratic -but only the show/cover story
            d)Opposition parties men are day light attacked using his thugs that are being trained for such activities

            e) Road builders and the commission breeders are on a rise thanking to MR clan -bbut seen as the development projects – IT IS BELIEVED THE WASTAGE IS AS NO COMPARABLE TO ANY OTHER COUNTRIES

            PLEASE RIGHT THINKING ONES – BE KIND ENOUGH CONTINUE THIS LIST

            may the MUSLAYAS OF MECHANIC kinds open their EYS SOON.

  • 5
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    Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan

    Mahinda Rajapaksa will again in more mools, aka Modayas , Shills and their goons vote for him.

    So, if the people ate informed , then he may not win.

    So Expose the MaRa and his gang of thieves and shills,

    The vote in Uva has raised hopes for many: a possible defeat of Rajapaksa at a future election has built a certain momentum. It has generated discussion, debate, hypotheses and predictions.

    What can writers and other do? Expose.. Expose and Expose the Mara regime.

    The current perception is that Rajapaksa Hegemony has taken over the UPFA/SLFP and people do not want dynasties.

    What can the writers do? What can the people do? Be Better informed.

    Thanks for a very good analysis. Can you be the Anonymous Author and Produce a Sri Lankan version of Common Sense in Sinhala, Tamil and English? You will do as much service to Lanka, the Land of Native Veddah Aethho, just like Thomas Paine did for America and France.You can expand this write up, and get there.

    Say, Because I have Common Sense, I will not vote for Mr. Rajapaksa and their criminal cronies for a continuation of a Family Dynasty, and say that Sri Lanka is a Republic.

    Rajapaksa had the opportunity. The power corrupted them. The People are sick of them. They even used Buddhism towards their ends. Even Sinhala Buddhists are fed up them, and they are showing their true colors.

    An Anonymous Author like Thomas Paine is needed with a Common Sense Pamphlet to expose the King, King George, the Rajapaksa Clan. Read, the Common Sense Pamphlet , by Thomas Paine, that inspired the American Revolution along with the other events. Common Sense (pamphlet)

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Sense_(pamphlet)

    Produce a Commons sense Pamphlet for Sri Lanka and say why it is in the best interest of the people of Sri Lanka to remove the King, aka Rajapaksa Dynasty from power and let the Republic be a Republic and Not a dynasty. This Pamphlet, in Sinhala, Tamil and English, need to be sent to each and every Sri Lankan Citizen, just like Thomas Paine’s Common Sense pamphlet.

    Common Sense[1] is a pamphlet written by Thomas Paine in 1775–76 that inspired people in the Thirteen Colonies to declare and fight for independence from Great Britain in the summer of 1776. In clear, simple language it explained the advantages of and the need for immediate independence. It was published anonymously on January 10, 1776, at the beginning of the American Revolution and became an immediate sensation. It was sold and distributed widely and read aloud at taverns and meeting places. Washington had it read to all his troops, which at the time had surrounded the British army in Boston. In proportion to the population of the colonies at that time (2.5 million), it had the largest sale and circulation of any book published in American history.[2]

    Common Sense presented the American colonists with an argument for freedom from British rule at a time when the question of whether or not to seek independence was the central issue of the day. Paine wrote and reasoned in a style that common people understood. Forgoing the philosophical and Latin references used by Enlightenment era writers, he structured Common Sense as if it were a sermon, and relied on Biblical references to make his case to the people.[3] He connected independence with common dissenting Protestant beliefs as a means to present a distinctly American political identity.[4] Historian Gordon S. Wood described Common Sense as “the most incendiary and popular pamphlet of the entire revolutionary era”.[5]

  • 7
    1

    It will be a difficult task this time. He cannot fool the people all the time. The Northern, Uva, Eastern, Western and Central Provinces may turn against him.

  • 5
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    There are 2 ‘evils’ in Ceylon today isn’t there? One is Tamil nationalism and its manifestations that came first. The second is Sinhala hooliganism, corruption and mismanagement that followed.

    So if one were to put the pieces back you need to fix the Tamil problem first. The second will come to a natural conclusion after the first evil ends.

    • 3
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      vibhushana

      you forget that tamil nationalism came about because of bhuddhist monks who are thisting to run the country behind the scenes.If the banda chelva pact was not torpedoed by them there would not have been tamil nationalism in the first place.Now they are trying hard to bring about muslim nationalism too and that would be much more easy than the tamils because muslims will happily radicalize when they are attacked.Tamils of course a very peaceful people radicalized very reluctantly because of the monks and thugs let loose on them.

      So the root cause of the problem is the bhuddhist monks.You sinhalese have to decide who should run the country,the elected representatives or the monks.If it is the monks then vote them wholesale into the parliament.If you want the elected representatives to run the country then ask the monks to shut up and let others do the job.

      too many cooks spoil the soup they say.Too many rulers and too much shit and then the shit hits the fan and mopping begins.

      • 1
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        shankar

        Where is your lover boy David B ?

    • 1
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      So if one were to put the pieces back you need to fix the Tamil problem first. The second will come to a natural conclusion after the first evil ends.

      Above is the truth, If Tamil Tribalism is uprooted, then Sinhala people know how to get rid of corrupt politicians.

      • 0
        0

        Don’t they have to up root Muslims and then Christians and by then perhaps estate Tamils.

  • 2
    8

    Go analyze Tamil Madu elections!

  • 4
    3

    Why does not ranil support the JVP in its campaign to disbar mahinda from contesting for the 3rd time?The former CJ himself the friend of the president has pointed out the flaw in the constitution.Ranil as usual is helping his tea buddy mahinda to win the third term.

    The lawyers association also has waged into the issue by saying that they will prosecute the elections commissioner if he allows mahinda to contest.Why is The UNp not supporting this.Are they still dreaming that they will beat mahinda?Will mahinda with his over 40 years of political experience have a early election cutting his term by 2 years if he is going to lose?Is he an idiot?

    By using this flaw in the constitution issue the UNP can at least try to push back the election by 6 months.As the writer of this article rightly commented as the election gets pushed back it becomes harder and harder for mahinda to win.So is ranil there to help or hinder mahinda’s chances of winning by being so anxious to become the president.A october election will be more beneficial to the opposition than a march election.

    If the UNP also joins in the fray with the lawyers association and the JVP they might be able to cause a delay through legal means.

    • 0
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      shankar

      Where you’ve been all these days. Good to hear from you.

      • 1
        2

        native,that is a long story,but to be brief i visited a japanese manufacturer of robots.He had a nice secretary and i complimented him on her beauty. My mouth fell open when he said she was a robot.

        He said if you press her right breast she will photocopy and if you press her left she will do word processing etc.He told me to take her back to my hotel and experiment.The bastard did not tell me that the hole between her legs was a pencil sharpener.

  • 4
    4

    While vising the UK, Germany and Switzerland ATAK new chief Mavai Senadhiraja said to have said that ‘the candidate who promise and enter into an agreement to send the Army away from the North would get their backing.’

    It seems Tamil votes would fall into Ranil’s lap only if he signs an agreement to remove the army from the North. As writer says Ranil needs Tamil votes if he is to win. But the moment Ranil signs such an agreement he’ll loose more votes from Sinhala Buddhists than he gain from Tamils. A Catch 22 situation for Ranil. And Mahinda will cruise to the Presidency.

    • 1
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      How can this be. Even Gemans kept foreign millitories (Russian, British, US) since the war is over. Even today, there are some american millitary functiong within Germany. Ramstein and Karlsruhe are places I know every well. RW will not have to sign such an agreement if you the guys would fool the nation again as the manner [Edited out] MR did it so far each and every election. It is not the facts and figures that they the buggers pass to the people – since they have manipulated nation media instituitions and new paperss as well. Only blatant lies are being passed by them to the rural nation.

      • 3
        4

        Where do you live my lady? Everyday every news paper says something about Tamils accusing the Army doing something against them and demanding Army out of the North. Have you forgotten, Tamils even accused the Army for studying the body language of Tamils.

        • 1
          1

          How can we as sinahalya react in this way ? Our fights cause taking the innoicent srilankens. And we then deploy our armies to protect the rest ?

          Are people computerised machines ?

          If the current president and the culprits in his govt could analyse their properly, they could have allowed foreign neutral forces to give guard to the victimized people in the north. Ethically and morally, the man in power goes on doing is a thing similiar – stab and even festate the wounds not leaving any healing process to be occured. Their mirror image is like that. They do harm not only tamils but also muslims and sinahalyas too. They are born thugs that have no morals and dignified nature about the human life and human rights.

          Having listened to the ALARMING issues being reported from Wanathamulla nd other areas – people are that furious not having the least rights being able to protec tthem in that land issues. Nothing in that line would come to surface because the wadakaya of the nation – Gotabaya threatene his brother Musalaya (MR) again and again.

          These are not just rumours – but all truths that are kept away from genral public. These men not ONLY removed from our scence but keep them in long time jails in order to protect the nation is a mandatory/timeworthy

          • 1
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            I just couldn’t understand what you were trying to say, old boy.

          • 1
            5

            Sun, I just couldn’t understand what you were trying to say, old boy.

      • 2
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        The US military, once it gets a foothold in a FOREIGN LAND does not leave. Today there are 860 such bases over the globe, almost NONE of which is for the benefit of the locals, and the US personnel are above the local laws. IN Afghanistan where Kharzai did NOT agree to an US/NATO military presence, the voting/counting process for the presidential election was not allowed to be completed, and the ULTIMATE winner was NATO. In Sri Lanka no such bases exist. The Sri Lankan forces DO NOT occupy foreign land.

    • 2
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      mechanic

      “As writer says Ranil needs Tamil votes if he is to win.”

      Have you forgotten Tamil votes determined the fate of MR’s first election victory. Also note VP won the war for MR. The last time I checked VP was a Tamil.

      Don’t forget whether you like it or not you need Tamils to do your dirty work, VP, KP, Devanada, Pillayan, Subramanian Swamy, N Ram, Vaiko, ….. now former members of Pottu Amman, …………

  • 2
    2

    Why not ?. Of course the writing is on the wall that MARA with the support of the majority of the Sinhala Buddhist voters, will win the 3rd term too.
    With the leftist parties and organisations who are behind the scene supporters of MARA gang will act as an avalanche causing catalysts and make the majoritarian SB voters to rally behind MARA.
    So MARA will triumph like SWRD, SRIMAVO, JRJ, PREMADASA. But of course for the controversial 3rd term.
    His brother BARA has already confirmed this by claiming, that the Indian PM MODI is following the footsteps of another great Asian leader MARA or something to that effect. My interpretation of this claim by BARA is, MARA is the number 2 Asian leader after the Chinese leader. The number 3 may be Japanese, or South Korean leaders. MODI can be number 2 after MARA , in South Asia.

    The writing is on the wall again that his victory he will take SL fully into the orbit of Stalinsm. The Sinhala so or Sri Lanka intellecttuals like Rajiva, Dayan, Tamara, Vasudeva, Tissa, Dew, Champika and the likes would like MARA to win at any cost and UNP or a common candidate to lose.

    Since 1948 parties from the minority groups did not have any say in the formation of GOSL.
    Red Comrades could not make the majority of the Sinhala Buddhists and other minorities to become more intelligent voters. So it was between SLFP and UNP to exploit the Sinhala Buddhist sentiments to get more votes.
    In 1972, comrade Colvin thought he had put the SL constitution in the right orbit.
    In 1977 JR thought he had.
    In 1987 Rajiva Ghandi thought he had. But JR and PREMADASA outsmarted India.
    Since 2005 MARA has outsmarted the IC and with their help won the civil war.
    Since 2010 he has outsmarted the IC and the opposition parties with the major support of Sinhala Buddhist voters. He brought in ammendment 17 and the 18.

    So the writing is on the wall MARA will win the election again but without changing the constitution .
    He will outsmart India and the rest of the world Except China.

  • 0
    0

    Dear Mr Keethaponcalan.

    I put your question to our resident media Pundit, Keheliya Rambuttangoda:

    Q: Can Mahinda Rajapaksa Win Again?

    A: Yes, No. Maybe. Er..er..er..Let me phone the Presidential Secretariat.

    So there you have it.

    Have a nice day.

  • 0
    0

    The significance of the recently concluded UVA elections are INSIGNIFICANT.

    MR did not contest ……………

    Nevertheless, in whatever capacity MR contest in Sri Lanka, he will have the majority vote and WIN.
    Who is to blame? RW & the UNP.
    After UVA success, already rift have surfaced between RW & Harin over PM nominee.

    • 0
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      Thondaman,
      Still living in 2010?

  • 1
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    Ambedkhar Reborn

    “In 1987 Rajiva Ghandi thought he had. But JR and PREMADASA outsmarted India.”

    That is what the Yankee Dick and clever dick would have thought about their achievements. However the war dragged on for another 22 years until the Hindians decided to bring it to a close.

    Premadasa prolonged the longevity of LTTE and VP, even long after their sell by date.

  • 0
    0

    “The Sinhala so or Sri Lanka intellecttuals like Rajiva, Dayan, Tamara, Vasudeva, Tissa, Dew, Champika and the likes would like MARA to win at any cost……..”

    The silent Sinhala Intelligentsia has learnt its lessons and they
    are going to act Democratically – if there is no Computer fraud or
    the EC Office being shifted to MoD premises for security reasons,
    the Opposition WILL win this time – their LAST chance to do so. The
    Sinhala Students will over-do the Forces and their famalies in a
    desisive vote this time, provided one does not beleive the kept Media.

  • 0
    0

    I hope not. I wish him NOT.

  • 0
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    Native Vedda,
    Appreciate your comments.
    Have you read Dr.Keethaponcalan’s brilliant & dissective analysis in Eurasia Review 31- 03 -2014?.
    MARA, GoRa, SaFon were fortunate to have got the support of many countries from the East & the West because VP also failed to understand the Geopolitics played by the big countries from the IC.

    Ranil with the help of IC, laid the peace foundation in 2002 but MARA reaped the benefits because of VP S political inadequacy.
    Now an Emperor’s Palace has been built on that foundation and MaRa has established a clan dynasty. SaFon was asked to be the Chief of Palace Guards and to occupy the Guard House. He as honest, talented and wise person rejected it.

    http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/dr-s-i-keethaponcalan/

    Punchinilame,
    I am sorry. I disagree.
    Majority of the SB will fully support MaRa and his gang.

    punchi,

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    It is disappointing that the author, a professional political scientist, did not look beyond the best known and most publicly political protagonists in his consideration of the political field in any future presidential election. As a few of the comments have already noted, Gen Sarath Fonseka as well as the Ven Sobhitha Thera are also currently in the political field and may be contenders for the presidency. There is a need to consider a COMBINATION OF POLITICAL FORCES AND PERSONALITIES, with some playing the role of ‘vote-catchers’ and others as political ‘elders’ and all supporting a single Oppositional ‘common candidate’. When approached in this manner, the potential to defeat Rajapaksa is very positive. Who are to be these ‘supportive actors’? It depends on which forces and personalities comprise the appropriate mix to support which ‘common candidate’. Who is the potential common candidate that is likely to attract the GREATEST NUMBER of supportive forces and personalities? And who is that Common Candidate with the most all-round personal attributes in terms of experience of governance, intelligence, a proven record in multi-cultural politics and with the least reputation of counter-insurgency mass murder and authoritarianism? It would help if political scientists approach the complex electoral scenario with a more comprehensive analytical framework that would answer these questions.

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    All the Pandits and statisticians would make calculations and assertions and make a “forecast” as to who “Will Win and Who will lose”.

    But the ground “realities” are DIFFERENT. We common and garden people see that “reality” more clearly as the speculations of the election are being put into the ears of the public. This is that REALITY : WHO IS THE CANDIDATE TO WHOM WE CAN VOTE OTHER THAN THE INCUMBENT PRESIDENT MR.? This is the question that majority of the voters are asking today. Has any of the Opposition Political parties yet provided a CREDIBLE ANSWER? The obvious answer is a resounding NO.

    The people are aware of what is going on in the country. You name all of the “unholy” affairs of the Government and yet they vote for the Government. WHY? is the “big question”. The answer the people give is again simple i.e. “What is the alternative and who is the alternate person to the present man”? All the opposition parties and all those who speak of “common candidate” have failed to provide that answer to the people and the obvious result would be to re elect the present MR.

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    Can Mahinda Rajapaksa Win Again?

    The answer is simple. Yes he can and he will.

    Mahintha has already given Notice that he intends to play the Race Card which is a vote winner in Sinhala Lanka with 20 million RACISTS.

    Mahintha has asked the 20 Million to choose HIM or EELAM. UVA has no relevance.

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    Kali, you are right. Mahinda Rajapakse will win, not because he is popular or his government is popular but because of Ranil and Sajith.The UNP will win the day those dumbos are thrown out.

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    General opinion of 90% of the public is that He cannot contest in the first leave aside winning

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    On the one hand some people think Ranil will do better than Mahinda. Are you joking? On the other hand when you look at the history at the time of the UNP whole country was in disaster. First, at the time of the Ranil unemployment was more than 10% to 15%. (http://www.statistics.gov.lk/samplesurvey/emp_unemp_in%20sri%20lanka.pdf)
    Infrastructure in the country was in very bad shape. Eg. Roads, water, etc. The whole country was like a garbage dump. Garbage were thrown all over in Sri Lanka. Political henchmans were own the whole country. Eg. Payments was occupied by political thugs to sell their products. People did not have a payment to walk in all over the country. There were power cuts all over the country by 5-6 hours or more. Today with Mahinda whole country has one of the lowest unemployment in the history. (less than 4.4%, http://www.statistics.gov.lk/samplesurvey/report2013q2.pdf ) New roads, and highways in Sri Lanka in all over the country. The whole country is clean. Electricity supply is continuously there for the people 24 hours a day 7 days a week. Almost 100% of people have electricity.

    Second, at the time of the Ranil whole country were lived with fear. Terrorist were controlling the country from north to south. When people go out from their residence family did not go together fear of loss of life due to terrorist bombs. People were not sure when they wake up in the morning they will live for next day. Political killings were all over the country. Simply, there were no law and order in the country

    Third, Ranil’s economic theory was doing nothing. Therefore, country imported all the products. All the local industries died. Imports controlled the country. To import more for the country took loans just to import more. Government debt was highest at the time of the Ranil’s government. For an example, the amount of the government debt was more than 103% to the GNP. (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/GC.DOD.TOTL.GD.ZS/countries/LK?display=graph) Today it is one of the lowest government debts, less than 80%. The biggest mistake at the time of the Ranil was they took all those loans just to import more. Previous government did not have the vision to improve infrastructure of the country. Due to above reasons, the farmers in north did not able to sell their products. South of the country was also the same. North started and supported the LTTTE and South had the rebellion of JVP. Simply country was vanished from livable country to hell.

    Fourth, another the great achievement of the Mahinda Rajapaksa was eradication of poverty of the country by taking the development to the village. Development of the infrastructure were paid off with greater dividedness to the citizens. People below poverty line decreased from 22.7% in 2002 to 6.7% in 2013. This was a great achievement for a country just finish the terrorist war which burn the country almost 30 years. Simply at time of the Ranil government did not had a vision to develop the country or people. ( http://data.worldbank.org/country/sri-lanka).

    Fifth, at the time of Ranil, education was in disarray. Universities were closed for years. School buildings were crumbling. Today all the schools are functioning well, well painted new buildings are all over the country for schools. Mahindhodaya Technological Laboratories more than 1000 established in all over the country for poor village students.
    Finally, these are just a few points I made about the Mahinda Rajapaksa’s government vision for Sri Lanka. There are thousands of more reasons we can find. Therefore, if we like to get killed from LTTE terror again, divide the country in to pieces, power cuts, no infrastructure, get killed by political thugs, garbage all over the country, live in a country without law and order, no good roads or high ways, no good schools, high unemployment etc. We should vote to Ranil. The people who lived through those conditions Great People of Sri Lanka will decide who will be their leader to take the country to became miracle of Asia.

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    I used to be a card carrying supporter of Mahinda Rajapaksa for his long standing solidarity with the hapless Palestinians and his human rights activities. But I cannot stand by in silence while he, with his brothers blatantly plunder the meagre resources of Sri Lanka for their own sand castles and prestige. We have the God given power to throw them out, by the ballot papers. We shall one day, see through their spin and realise their hypocrisy and will throw them out.

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