By Dayan Jayatilleka –
Dr. Dayan Jayatilleka
I shall ignore the negative personal speculation and amateur psychoanalyses in Shyamon Jayasinghe’s ‘Dayan at the Crossroads’, to make some important political points.
1. Analysts, commentators and readers in general should check the results of the 1982 Presidential election. Despite an 8 % growth rate, the Mahaweli program, and the deprivation of Mrs B’s civic rights, the great JR Jayewardene won only 52+% of the vote, in what is regarded as a great victory. Today in Uva the UPFA has registered only 1+% less than that performance of JRJ. Furthermore, the Opposition candidate Kobbekaduwa scored just under 40%. That is just 1+% less than the UNP got in Uva.
2. My point is that at a Presidential election Mahinda can win and Ranil will lose, even on the basis of the Uva result. As 1982 showed, it is the candidate that is crucial at a presidential election. Ranil would be the equivalent of Kobbekaduwe while MR would be the replay of JR in late 1982.
3. The Americans call it the beer test. Who would you rather have a beer with? That, it is said, is the crucial question at a presidential election. In Sri Lanka the equivalent would be a plain tea. Who would the voter rather have a plain tea with: Mahinda or Ranil?
4. Within the UNP’s ranks, who would the voter rather have a plain tea with– Ranil or Sajith? I think Darisha Bastian’s last report from the Uva campaign where she said the crowds went wild when ‘Punchi Premadasa’ arrived, answers that question. Even if Sajith sidesteps, who would the voter rather have a plain tea with: Ranil or Karu? I think the latter.
5. Remember that the decisive difference between Ranasinghe Premadasa and Sirimavo Bandaranaike in 1988 was the two and half lakhs scored by Ossie Abeygoonesekera. Who would the JVP be willing to consider as a common candidate– Ranil or Karu? The latter, I think. Who would be the UNP candidate who could pull back the vote that has gone to the JVP? Probably Sajith. Ranil is the least capable of doing either.
6. Harin Fernando’s performance as well as the JVP’s doubling of its vote under AKD’s leadership shows that the UNP will do best under a new, dynamic, younger candidate. That cannot be anyone other than Sajith because of the nationwide name recognition factor he enjoys, mainly thanks to the people’s warm memories of his father.
7. What if Maithripala Senanayake or Vijaya Kumaratunga had been the candidate in December 1982, instead of Hector Kobbekaduwa? If the UNP sticks with Ranil as the candidate, it will “win the campaign and lose the election” as the American phrase goes. That happened to Hector Kobbekaduwa. The same may happen even if Sajith or Karu is the candidate but they will score more than Ranil, inflicting a moral defeat even if they lose the vote. That in turn may be translatable into an opposition victory at the parliamentary election. If Ranil loses as visibly as Kobbekaduwa did, the Govt will definitely win the parliamentary election.
8. The armed forces are a new social force, akin to one of the old ‘Pancha Maha Balavegaya’. Multiplied by five, the armed forces and their families amount to 1 ½ million votes. The UNP needs a candidate with a patriotic profile to win over the rank and file armed forces members and their families. How could that be Ranil? It is far likelier to be Sajith or Karu. Ranil vs. Mahinda will revive the old issues of the war as well as the dark side of the UNP years i.e. Batalanda to Athurigiriya. How can it be an intelligent strategy to present such a target and such an opportunity? Sajith or Karu will not carry such baggage and will not be so easy a target to hit.
9. The UNP needs a leader/candidate that can attract SLFP votes and even crossovers in parliament. The SLFP will cross over and UNP crossover voters will cross back to someone they can ideologically and socially identify with. Is that more likely to be Ranil or Karu?
10. The UNP needs a candidate who has the best chance of securing the second preference vote. Indeed it needs a candidate who has a better chance of securing a second preference vote than does Mahinda Rajapaksa. For instance who can secure the second preference vote of those who will vote for Anura Kumara? Is it Mahinda, Ranil, Sajith or Karu?
RalphF / September 21, 2014
Answer to Q 10-definitely not Sajith.
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wathie / September 21, 2014
I say, how could AKD’s red brothers give their second choice to the butcher of Batalanda and Aturugiriya.
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Amarasiri / September 22, 2014
Dayan,
“1. Analysts, commentators and readers in general should check the results of the 1982 Presidential election. Despite an 8 % growth rate, the Mahaweli program, and the deprivation of Mrs B’s civic rights, the great JR Jayewardene won only 52+% of the vote, in what is regarded as a great victory.”
It won’t be 1982. It will be 1977.
The Raja-pakas, their crones and shills will be washed away by the tsunami just like what happened n India 2014 .
People are tired of Nepotism, lack of Law and Oder, rapes and Corruption.
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sama / September 22, 2014
But for his future ( DJ future) Sajith is the choice.. that is why he has been making every effort to promote Sp on this platform too. I thought this Katussa guy -Dayan may have a brain atleast the size of a needle head – but this kind of articles prove that the guy is totally out of his conscience these days.
Hi lanken medicos @, please check this guy DJ whetheer he has been suffering from a new form of disease.
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Sven Perera / September 22, 2014
You may be right.
This guys DJ has always been focusing on his job rather than representing the views of masses.
It is so idiosyncratic to his Katussa nature.
Had Mervin Silva – DJ s father been here today, he would surely be worried the way his son s been made to this days. Unfortuantley, Vasu and several other senior political weights do nothing. All these aer because of Chatu politicas of Ballige putha Rajapakshe. If he cant approach guys, he has always bought them by abusing tax payers funds. As JVP clearly pointed out, which leader across the world would use the country s carrier as a his privt taxi ? Only Rajaapkshes have been doing so. To show off the world while sending own people in hungeR – truth as it is over 70% of the country are under the poverty line.
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Sven Perera / September 22, 2014
XXXXXXYou may be right.
This guys DJ has always been focusing on his job rather than representing the views of masses.
It is so idiosyncratic to his Katussa nature.
Had Mervin Silva – DJ s father been here today, he would surely be worried the way his son s been made to this days. Unfortuantley, Vasu and several other senior political weights do nothing. All these aer because of Chatu politicas of Ballige putha Rajapakshe. If he cant approach guys, he has always bought them by abusing tax payers funds. As JVP clearly pointed out, which leader across the world would use the country s carrier as a his privt taxi ? Only Rajaapkshes have been doing so. To show off the world while sending own people in hungeR – truth as it is over 70% of the country are under the poverty line.
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Robert.R / September 21, 2014
looks like someone’s ego got hurt by some home truths.
By the way, Sajith is 47 (yes, forty seven), is that young ?
Middle age IMO.
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pran / September 21, 2014
Dayan all your what if’s has never happened so we would never know if it could happen or not. You are trying to borrow, the US political analogy that how Bush Jr won based on “Who would you rather have a beer with concept”. This is the first time I see “who you would wanna have a tea with” analogy SL politcs. We are not as dumb as US electorate. Our voters are much smarter than US voter, they vote based on economical issues, politically aware(even the village voters). They basically vote for who can bring them most.
In US they vote for non related issues, like Guns, Gays and God. So currently Sl is bringing religion into the fray making it a very hostile environment for all our rest of the crowds. People won’t vote for Vijaya for merely being an actor. Don’t remember anyone voting that way in the past. Except for Gampaha people voting for Paba(Ms Upeksha Swarnamali who knows next to nothing) overwhelmingly creating a mojo for all the dying stars giving a life line. And they got a good deserving objection from people in last PC elections. You are just cherry picking the data to support your thesis. You are not an honest political analyst in the public’s eye just a pandering buffoon who is greedy for perks and try to achieve so by political boot licking. They cheered for unity in the party, Sajith tried to score points by Harin’s popularity with people. If he is that good why wasn’t he able to garner that much support or generate that much enthusiasm and love in Hambantota district for him self? He throws tantrums like 2 year old and feels politically entitled because of his father, and he is no where near his father. How can we expect you to know that you are hanging out in posh circles, may be it it time to come down from your cloud.
Harin F’do is a better person to have a beer or tea with. SO they should put Harin for the next leader in training! That is what normal people feels.
Nothing can be hidden for too long. When people are frustrated they will give a good whipping to politically pompous leaders in SL. It may be in two months 5 years or 10 years. But MARA and the clan will get it. opposition will win again with perhaps a 5/6th margin. So what, a third term of Rajapakshes’ will further make them unpopular. Why worry aren’t you are their lap dog, you will get your bone soon for trying to sway the elite/ business class thinking pattern.
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Lapatiya / September 21, 2014
I thought only Sirasa and Mawbima are trying to promote Sajith Premadasa to divide UNP. Now this learned Dr. DJ also. He has to answer only one Question and that is, weather Sajith Premadasa lied about his academic qualifications or not?
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Seelawathie Punchihamy / September 24, 2014
So called Dr. DJ is confused to use which end whenever he speaks out.
That is pitty that the learnt man is fallen to this level. I really dont see any difference mentality of those high criminals of MR and this man. Who on the earth, we read that academics – with years long exp supported criminals to stay in power ? I am speechless when reading this man s articles as always has been.
Either he is sick or twisted mind from his genetics on to react this way.
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mechanic / September 22, 2014
A rational, common sense and practical piece of writing by DJ for a long time. Having said that, I like RanilW to be the common candidate of the UNP and AKD the common candidate of the JVP because I want MR to win and thereby the political stability that is here now to continue for at least another six years when the average man can have thing and achieve heights that none of his forefather ever did.
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Native Vedda / September 22, 2014
mechanic
“because I want MR to win”
You must be a masochist pervert, the rest of the country is not.
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mechanic / September 22, 2014
No wonder kallathonis are blind to reality – Vua election results.
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Native Vedda / September 22, 2014
mechanic
What is the connection between Ancient Jaffna published in 1926 and GG Ponna’s racism in 1939?
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Prasanna / September 22, 2014
so what DJ is saying is that Sajith is his choice. Folks like dj love to lick shoes of dictators. premadasa,medamulana mara and sajith. [Edited out] crooks dj like people trying to sabotage the entire nation.
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Piyumi Welikala / September 22, 2014
Dayan, you have got it this time by Shyamon. You are smarting under that succinct piece that minces no words and puts you in place. In return, you resort to American cliches and irrelevant diversions. You need an exorcist or Kattadiya who can try and cure you by extracting your psychotic prejudice against Ranil and the UNP. What a pussy Sajith, your UNP hopeful, has been.He was missing during the crucial last week of the elections. Like you Sajith is a post hunter. Harin Fernando has had a record preference poll of over 165,000. Sajith can now cross over and join where he belongs- the blackguards Rajitha, Lokuge, Lakshman Seneviratne etc.
Remember how you supported Unilateral Declaration of Independence when you were in The Eelam Peoples’ Democratic Party? You are in a very brittle glass house, Putha.
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Prasanna / September 22, 2014
so what DJ is saying is that Sajith is his choice. Folks like dj love to lick shoes of dictators. premadasa,medamulana mara and sajith. Financed by media crooks dj like people trying to sabotage the entire nation.
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yus / September 22, 2014
The learned spin doctor has been for a rude awakening after the UVA results and has contributed 2 articles within 24 hrs espousing the cause of his candidate whom he refered to as a “Champion” in an earlier article.The political anaylst even prefers Anura K whose party obtains less than 5% of the vote to that of Ranil who has been prime minster twice. DJs political comments have descended to the same level as Hudson and Rajpal and merits no serious consideration.
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Upul / September 22, 2014
Same tired song. Its Mahinda’s to lose and Sajith is the savior.
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Park / September 22, 2014
Shame on you Dayan. Give up. Stop sucking upto the President. Learn first to be honest to yourself.
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Don Quixote / September 22, 2014
Do you have a “plain Tea” or a beer with the leader of your country ? Drinking with friends or ‘good company” not necessarily intellectuals, is what Dyan is talking about.
Maybe his massive ego puts him on the same plane as Ranil but I would be intimidated to have a beer with a intellectual as superior as Ranil.
Mahinda I would share a kassipu with and Sajith I would get him to serve me !
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Matilda Ellepola / September 22, 2014
Sajith was a big dissapointment with his ego and trying to break the UNP into fractions.
This man is handled by Tiran Alles and Killi Rajamahendran against RW and he is a traitor that UNPers should throw into the Beira lake.
See what Harin F did in sacrificing his paraliamanetary seat and decalare as the CM candidate… can Sajith do this other than dividing the party and ego?
If I were Ranil, will appoint Harin as the deputy leader NOW, a man got upto a challenge.
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Leelagemalli / September 22, 2014
not was but is.
That is the reality. His cant be comparable to any leaders perhaps why not with that of Mahinda… ?
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Harry Hatton / September 22, 2014
The UNP will give a honest leadership ,people like ravi karunanayake, tilak marapone, daya gamage and several other people now in the shadows will come forward and lead the nation in a honest way.From the corresondence in english web sites we get the impression that the UNP is full of nasty writers who hate the premadasa types. But this only a drop in a nation of 20 million.So let us to please these lunatics have a good shot of whiskey in front of royal and st thomas and even ladies college for the unp’s defeat in uva which is apparently a victory ! logic ,logic…
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Salted Fish / September 22, 2014
Dayan reflects his prejudices so blatantly. It is overwhelming that he is loosing his marbles in his mission to promote certain person/s for his future benefits.
He wants someone to bash at and the tide is turning for him to be bashed.
He likes to bastardise Ranil and patronise the war criminals whom he defended in Geneva.
Look at everyone he promoted so far are in the dustbins starting with Varatharaja Perumal. He thinks he can hold on to Rajapakse mantle but unfortunately he may have to go to The Hague soon to defend him .
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MMR / September 22, 2014
Dear Dayan
you can not compare 1982 JR’s win with this election or next Presidential election in 2015. Because this UVA and future elections are held under environment where total Gaddaffi rule exist. it is different to JR’s time but little higher than premadasa era.In history no one had fear like this. three brothers are controlling the entire country. So bringing UPFA to 51% is victory of the people.
On the other hand your idea of having a patriot candidate for next election is also not acceptable. This is how Mahinda started in 2005. today he is unable to solve the national issue because he can not take U turn. So you want Sajith as patriot to do the same.Remember ‘Patriot’ has hidden meaning. you know what it is ‘Sinhala Budhdhist only’ concept.
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Kaalakanni / September 22, 2014
Rajapaksalaata Lamborghini, mahajanathaawata bada gini;
The arrogant mega development focus has lost the people’s support. Building white elephants which allow leaders to make massive commissions has lost the people’s support. No other regime has been this blatant in its promotion of family bandyism and nepotism. Now in fact there is proof of blatant family bandyism even in the foreign affairs ministry. This is the most shameful grab of power and wealth ever in a nation in South Asia. There is something wrong when a son of the most charismatic President Sri Lanka has seen, arrogantly brags about his Louis Vuitton shoes. Not a single Senanayake, Bandaranaike or Jaywardene sibling will behave or talk that way about wealth.
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K.A Sumanasekera / September 22, 2014
Can’t understand why these heavy hitters in the Intelligentsia camp keep harping on an Election which the Christian Faction Leader of the UNP Mr Ranil Wickremasingh lost for the 20th time .
That is apparently 20 in 20 years
Why cant they write, analyze or speculate on the Anglican Bishops and the LTTE mates who delivered 200 Million LKRs from Trinity Funds to Prababa’s Coffers which would make more interesting reading , like the article in the Island today..
After all aren’t the Anglicans, the Vellalas and the Intelligentsia in the same boat with the Christian Faction of the UNP which was lead to the election by Mr Wickremasinghe..
Wonder whether Anglican Faction a better Term…
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Harin / September 22, 2014
DJ,
Can Sajith win the next presidential election?
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Seelawathie Punchihamy / September 23, 2014
He would say yes.
DJ is living in his own world. Waiting to get posted for new destinations.
People that knew Premadasa s father took the lives of over 50k youth in late 80ties would never say yes to premadasa junior.
That is for sure. Only way out would be building a coalition getting united with other parties (Jvp, Dp and Muslims)
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paul / September 22, 2014
Dayan, it appears you have touched a raw nerve through this article. I am quite puzzled and confused as what you say sounds fair and reasonable. Truth hearts the saying goes and just wondering if that has anything to do with this avalanche of insults pouring on you.
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punchinilame / September 22, 2014
DJs analysis is out-dated – the past tendency changes with a never-seen
Regime tyranny as now. The people must decide if & when they are give a chance.
The UNP with Ranil at the head WILL make a Regime change – simply with a
National-Government-in-waiting frame work before any election. The Regime
countering it will not gain ground, more so even if they spend all the Commissions earned to distribute it all the constituencies!!
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Mahen de Silva / September 22, 2014
Dayan, I would appreciate if you could please answer my question which is bothering me for a long time.
Can you agree with Sajith’s views on the national issues? He has sided with MR regime and extremist Sinhalese on many times.On the other hand Ranasinghe Premadasa had been very clear that he wanted to give due place for Tamils and other communities. I had hopes on Premadasa junior at the beginning. I was also of the view that it is high time Ranil handover leadership.But I was thoroughly disappointed with the conduct of Sajith, over last few years. When all the sensible people are highly alarmed by the undemocratic acts of the government including politicizing Judiciary, Police and Armed forces and administration, nepotism and corruption, Sajith’s resources were utilized to attack his enemies in the opposition. He was blind to cruelties of the government. I hardly see Sajith condemning government. He maintained his contacts and understanding with Rajapakse family and media tycoons closer to government. He does silly things such as distributing money to temples etc. He is fond of appealing to gallery rather than intelligent. If this person wants to govern the country one day, he should show maturity and forthrightness on major issues affecting the country such as national issue, corruption and nepotism, abolishing the Presidential system and establishing rule of law and good governance etc.
Dayan, when you support Sajith in this manner do you really believe that Sajith appreciate your solution to resolving the national issue? Just like the Rajapakse clan siding with Sinhalese extremists, Sajith’s conduct so far shows he does not believe that minorities in the country have any real issues. He wants to carry out the same Presidential system. The only people who are closer to Dayan Jayatilakes views with regard to national question are Ranil or Chandrika. Whatever the shortcomings and blunders they had in the past, at least now they appeared to be more matured Statesman. They can certainly get the international support to restore democracy and real development to our country.
We expected Dayan Jayatilake to be a Statesman and acts according his consciousness in deciding whom he supports. Just like Sajith, Dayan has been hesitant in condemning Rajapakse’s for all undemocratic acts and unprecedented misuse of power. By choosing to remain silent or less critical on these issues Dayan’s credibility would be affected badly. I understand Dayan is grateful to Ranasinghe Premadasa. But he should think about the country first when he extends outright support to Premadasa Junior, who does not follow or appreciate many of Dayan’s major concepts
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Thrishantha / September 23, 2014
I am no way an expert on this, but I get the feeling that people are fed up with corruption, lack of justice, and nepotism. And the remote villagers have begun to realize that people who claim to be closer to villagers and village thinking abuse their kindness to pick-pocket them than to serve them. So, if this is closer to the message from Uva, then what they are looking for is somebody who is not corrupt, honest, and known to respect rule of law. In that sense, Ranil is a better candidate than Sajith for sure. We should also keep in mind that villagers trust first, and if that is abused, they turn around very quickly. For this reason, they mistrust a lot of their own villager relatives than folks from afar.
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paul / September 23, 2014
I tend to agree mechanic. 30 to 40 years ago Sinhala Buddhists – the main socio-economic group in the country were second class citizens – only good for farming, servants, drivers, clerks, junior soldiers etc. All professions, large businesses, senior civil service places, armed forces, diplomatic service were firmly in the hands of other groups.
For the first time, slowly but surely, this serious imbalance is being addressed by the MR led government.
For this reason, the majority group will re-elect MR even ignoring issues such as nepotism, corruption elements of incompetence. This is because since independence, all elected governments were corrupt, incompetent,family businesses while at the same time they ignored the majority – except perhaps SWRDB and to a lesser degree Premadasa governments.
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Native Vedda / September 23, 2014
paul
“All professions, large businesses, senior civil service places, armed forces, diplomatic service were firmly in the hands of other groups.”
Please refer us to research that supports your assertion.
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paul / September 24, 2014
Just analyse Engineering, Medicine, Accountancy and Legal university / College entry numbers and those who had overseas education, Civil service and military top positions numbers 30 to 40 years ago by religion and race, Civil servants also by the school attended and district they came from.
Similarly look at who were in the boards and senior executive positions of large private companies – companies with european sounding names.
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Kirri Yakka / September 23, 2014
Paul
“Appey Yakka te JayaWeva!” that is what the Tamils felt about the LTTE till they got done in. The sinhalese will have to divide them selves into two factions one slaving for the saudis while the other half is being sold off to China while supporting our Yakka as DJ does shamelessly.
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paul / September 24, 2014
‘Sold off to China’ is an unavoidable reality for the whole world. Look for evidence in every continent. Joining them – and India for that matter – on favourable terms is better for sri lanka than siding with the losers.
We need to be realistic.
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