By Ameer Ali –

Dr. Ameer Ali

“With AI we are summoning the demon” ~ Elon Musk

“The development of full AI could spell the end of the human race” (Stephen Hawking). Alvin Toffler author of Future Shock (1973) and The Third Wave (1980) identified three waves of epochal transformation in human civilization beginning with the first marked by the grand shift from societies of hunter-gatherers towards settled agricultural communities, the second commencing around mid-18^th century dominated by industrialisation and the third from 1950 onwards identified with information revolution. In all three waves it was human intelligence and ingenuity that was central to the changes, and the trademark of the second and third waves was the dominance of machines. Machines produced not only more goods and services at cheaper cost, but also more and better machines to increase productivity; and information travelled fast and almost instantaneously, and human communities became interconnected despite geographical barriers. But the system that governed the information age was of course not perfect which is a different story. At least on the economic side, poverty amidst plenty with widening income and wealth gaps is the ugliest characteristic of this system.

However, this evolution has now reached a new stage and entering the fourth phase led by AI or Artificial Intelligence. The uniqueness of this phase is the replacement of machines and other gadgets produced by human intelligence with machines that could think for themselves. This is a fundamental break from the past and therefore revolutionary in character and consequence. What was once the domain of human intelligence in the field of learning, reasoning, problem solving and understanding languages is being taken over by machines. In the field of healthcare, finance, transportation and entertainment AI is already making its mark. Even in the field of education AI is creating a challenge to teaching staff in assessing students’ class performance and exam submissions. Several universities in Australia for example are facing this challenge. Job losses, especially at the level of industrial and economic planning, designing and management and in time to come even in public governance are under jeopardy. During the early stages of industrialization, it was the employment opportunities of the unskilled or semi-skilled labouring class that was under attack, and now AI is depriving employment at the top end. AI is also invading the world of entertainment, sports and creative art. Ted Gioia, a creative musician about him more later, explains how AI is invading this arena and jeopardising the livelihood of many.   

Moreover, and on the negative side, the possibility of cyber security concerns, lack of transparency and potential for misinformation are among the added worries about AI. Social media has become the first victim of AI penetration and in several countries access to social media by children under sixteen years of age has been banned, because AI programs are found immoral and malicious in content. It has been found that almost 40% of teenagers have access to AI and that figure is set to increase.

As mentioned earlier, the economic system that came to prevail at the height of the Third Wave was one of increasing inequality in income and wealth distribution. That distributive injustice could worsen in the age of AI, and the owners of AI paraphernalia would be at the top of the income ladder and rule the emerging economic system. In this context, it is amazing that Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India where nearly 290 million people are still living in extreme poverty is aspiring to make his country an AI-hub.       

But the most worrying consequence of AI is how human life in general is going to be affected and shaped in the future. Humans are gregarious animals and that is why they prefer to live not in isolation but in communities. Unfortunately, with the information age this gregariousness has already been jeopardised. Although humans are living in communities physically, they remain isolated mentally. For example, just get into a bus or train or even an airplane or go into a hairdresser’s shop or doctor’s surgery where customers and patients are waiting for their turn to be called in. The most striking scene one would see is that almost every passenger or customer or patient is seen occupied with their eyes and ears buried in handphones. Even pedestrians while walking along the street are seen occupied with this gadget. Inside one’s own home direct communication and chat among members of the family has been noted disappearing. Boredom rules in such families and sociologists fear that AI may worsen the situation.

Ted Gioia, an American Jazz critic and music historian who had been a direct victim of AI feels that as AI gets smarter, it will increasingly resemble a “Bond villain”. He goes on to say that “smart machines will have an inherent tendency to evil, because human moral or legal or religious or evolutionary tendencies to goodness don’t apply to them. The only way to stop this is through human intervention, but as machines get smarter, this intervention will increasingly fail”.                

During the 1760-1830 industrial revolution in Britain, skilled workers from the textile industry rose in revolt over fears of losing employment in the face of growing mechanization. They were called Luddites after a mythical figure Ned Ludd who was supposed to have destroyed a machine. Hence Luddism represents revolt against machines. With AI threatening employment at several levels and competes with creative human talent the prospects of a new wave of Luddism cannot be ruled out unless AI corrects itself.

There is increasing pressure in developing economies like Sri Lanka for rapid technological transformation, digitalization, and mechanization of economic activities to compete on equal terms with other economies. But with AI taking over mechanization a cautionary note on moving along this trajectory is advisable.  Not very long ago in early 2000s undergraduates studying economic development were lectured about the need for appropriate technology and balanced growth. But with globalization of the open economy paradigm these alternatives have fallen out of favour among economists and developmentalists. Once the full impact of AI is felt they may have a revival.