By S. Sivathasan –
When a nation’s economic priorities demand rearrangement, political philosophy too turns colour. India has come to this nodal point. Kept back by indifference and indecisiveness, rapid growth is seen as the route to compensate for past default. The tempo of political change unleashing itself at the Lok Sabha election is now at fever pitch. For a fundamental change in the destiny of India, firstly party fortunes have to be reordered. In a nation of over a billion people, more than half a billion have begun to wield the powerful vote to realize a future of value and purpose.
The stance they are expressing is determining the strength of political parties. The country can see a drastic difference that is coming about. It is said that in any nation those with heightened social consciousness are about 6%. This translates to a compact entity of 50 million in India, among the most formidable one-sixth of the world’s adults. It is an upheaval spearheaded by them that the world is witness to. What has churned it has been adequately examined. It would suffice now to assess how power will be distributed by a populace that has lost its patience. How much concentration at the centre? What is the geographical spread?
In a constitutional arrangement where the winner takes all, how will that power be converted into authority? When the latter is extended to the far corners, how effective will it be at the extremities, say Kashmir and Kanniyakumari? Power will necessarily be stepped down compared to the generation centre that is Delhi. But how well can the transformers be primed? To what degree can conveyance losses be reduced? Facing a more knowledgeable intelligentsia, these are far greater challenges for Modi to manage, than they were for Nehru or Indira.
To analyze the correlation, first the seat apportionment to parties by the electors needs to be assessed. The most essential departure is to dislodge a party that has governed India for almost 85% of the time since independence. A decisive choice on this occasion falls on a party; the BJP that shared the opportunity for only 10% of the time. A close and sensitive look at the mood of the electorate conveys a very clear image of coming events. What is the pattern in this unfoldment?
In four months of hectic activity, estimate of party strength has yielded space to predictable seat numbers. The writer’s forecast on April 12, for the results on May 16 is: BJP 280 and NDA 305. For INC 90 and UPA 105.
To make a point clear, hypothetical computations are relevant. When the two national parties are considered, the first among the two is tipped to get 280 seats. This is the highest since 1984 for any one of the national parties when Congress obtained 415. Also the highest in 7 successive elections. What the result connotes is that the nation tired of lumbering for 30 years in search of stability for growth, has settled down for a party that has shown promise of dynamism and direction. Secondly the nation has set its face against multi party obesity in favour of a single, trim, monolithic entity for smart steering. Standing on the threshold of a clear majority a month ahead of the day of reckoning, Modi is reiterating the need for 300 seats. The way the subterranean surge is surfacing, this is sure to happen.
The NDA together with UPA would garner 410 is the writer’s forecast. The lowest collected by the two parties at 7 elections was 289. When this is so, the space available to all other parties and independents is getting reduced disastrously to 133 in 2014 from 254 seats in 2004 and 221 in 2009. It is in such a situation of being squeezed out that the so called Third Front which may not get even a fifth of the BJP seats or votes is yet trumpeting to be in the seat of power in Delhi.
When the above configuration unfolds, there will be a great benefit to India’s democracy and state of governance. Over the last quarter century a dismal feature prejudicial to people’s wish has been developing. Popular vote for the national parties waned and that of state parties waxed. This led to opportunistic alliances based on bargaining for partisan, particularist, personal or sectarian considerations. A convincing majority for a single party can end such degeneracy and place governance on an agreeable footing. Reversal of a pernicious trend is now a possibility.
There are cogent reasons for a clear majority for the BJP. The Five State victory of December 8, proclaimed the mood of the nation. The upward curve for the BJP never dipped since then. Swings in states denoted a strong trend with a consistent spread. Larger states like UP, Maharashtra and Bihar are now home to BJP domination. Three other of the larger states; W.Bengal, Andhra and TN are now registering a fair presence. States like Rajasthan, Gujerat and Madhya Pradesh which had a strong presence have now become stronger.
Several parties identified the winning side to go in for alliance. This tempo boosts the numbers for the NDA. To add to all this the organizational verve of the saffron brigade has made its enthusiasm felt. Besides all this is the wealth of time yet left. It is true that nothing succeeds like success.
Political changes, party alignments and election results in Tamil Nadu are of keen interest and concern to Sri Lankans and to Tamils in particular. With alliances formed recently and some which failed to reach fruition, the picture of seat outcome has become clearer.
The writer’s prediction is: AIADMK 18, DMK and allies 12, BJP with allies 9 and Congress nil. After the election what is the position? AIADMK’s support will not be wanted or desired at the centre. Will not be solicited but spurned even when offered. The Himalayan ego of the person concerned is far too insufferable for anybody outside TN. In an ego maniac only the ego suffuses every pore of one’s being and craves to be satisfied. Never ever will SL Tamils feature in, otherwise than to steal a march over rival claimants for popular support. An earthen horse to cross a river is not a judicious choice. All options in the Modi basket with the awakened youth in full alert and in the forefront is a compulsion for the Tamils.
DMK’s taints of corruption, insatiable appetite for filthy lucre and unquenchable opportunism have made it an untouchable in TN and in Delhi. BJP will make its entry in TN, establish a toe hold and make it a foothold at the next election. If it makes a huge success of its tenure in India and impresses its strong presence in TN, it can dispense with the hangers on the way the tadpole sheds its tail as it grows.
The Congress with ignominious lessons taught the hard way will be wiped out. For treating the Tamils to unvarnished cheat and chicanery and most deplorable of all for crafty running and hunting will see elimination. The conspiratorial conduct at the UNHRC in all five years qualifies it for perpetual eclipse and no other. Tamil Nadu is a write off for the Congress and the latter is a complete write off for the Tamils of SL.
The above are the prospects for Tamils that a convincing BJP and Modi victory will spell out. Till an absolutely fresh political formation develops in TN there is no trustworthy party for a central government to rely on. The Tamils in their multi millions who are the source of strength in TN are the steel frame for the SL Tamil cause.
We Tamils have missed opportunities from Donoughmore times to Soulbury days. From 1956 we wanted only complete solutions perfectly worked out, leaving no space for subsequent chiseling or polishing. Any settlement should be instant. So asserting, we have lost 58 years – 1956 to 2014 – of opportunities. Any baby with the slightest imperfection we will throw with the bath water. Since we have done it in the past, we shall do so in the future as it is not wise or proper to forsake tradition. For such a mindset, anything falling short of a predetermined formula is marked out for rejection. ‘Accept and build on’ when understanding and goodwill develop were never in our reckoning. If anyone indicates acceptability he is a traitor.
For want of a strong body of opinion to overwhelm pre-set views, chances were forsaken. In recent times, President Chandrika’s Constitutional Proposals of 1995, were considered good for a fresh beginning. Hon. S. Thondaman while welcoming them instantly was also swift in placing his suggestions for further refinement in writing. Non-acceptance of the proposals publicly by the Tamils was a big miss. The Oslo Formula not getting a studied reception was another. With an all or nothing mental frame we cooked our goose at all times.
We have to get reconciled to the reality that the Tamil Problem is now an intractable one, with international dimensions added. There are no quick fixes. It’s a long haul. Through introspection we have to identify our infirmities and eliminate them. Our minds have to be conditioned for the acceptance of the pragmatic.
Always we had the wise words of Thiruvalluvar in front of us and yet we disdain to note them.
“WEIGH THE PROS, WEIGH THE CONS AND OPT FOR WHAT OUTWEIGHS”
Sengodan. M / April 13, 2014
What is stated under the last sub-title is absolutely true and let us hope that every intelligent Tamil will reflect on it. Most analysts believe that whatever government comes to power in India, it’s foreign policy will not change. It will possibly be true even when Modi assumes power. The only difference will be that Modi will be a much stronger and a more assertive Premier than Manmohan Singh. It may not be possible for MaRa to continue to scare India with his China card. Perhaps the most that the Tamils can hope for is that with Modi’s pressure there will be a full implementation of 13A and with some luck even 13A +. Even Modi’s government will not support an international probe for obvious reasons. So the Tamils will have to play their cards cautiously. The most we can hope for is an incremental progress. We have to condition our minds to accept same rather than hoping for a ‘complete solution’ too soon’ which hope will be totally unrealistic.
Javi / April 13, 2014
You are another islander kallathoni/hora oru taking India for granted/grunted to offer you a free service because you arraged the killing of a pm who never wanted to be(he was just dragged in and that was something he never dreampt in his life- he never passed cambridge either just a fun loving pilot) but was sacrificed by JR then by premadasa???
Yes the closet would carry the scalp of preme- tooth for tooth.
It’s a power needed in the region so the same closet will never be opned while lanka is no different from nepal to open up when asked-administrative delays and graft.
3000 sheiks were killed in the aftermath of indira and sonia released them all and the case files dont exist anymore for a case.
Jaya did release for whom and for what??
kali / April 14, 2014
Javi you Sinkalam:
Get your facts right mate. Killing the PM was regrettable but it was something he brought it upon himself by replacing the Sinhala Army with IPKF which carried on the killing.
For your information Mr.Modi has already put Sinhala Lanka on notice.
By the way Jaya was right to release ( not yet) as Justice demanded.
Javi / April 14, 2014
Kali Kallathoni- Kalistan the tip cut,
You JT’s are nandri illade nani- as far as mainland India sees, period.
You begged of Hindustan via your catholic/christian sponsored chits (i dont need to go into details of the 70’s who is who on this public site) and hoodwinked Indira then you killed his son who was naive.
even if you break 10 coconuts at nallur or pashupathi you are untouchable that was the message you folk received via the Jaya release and SC rule against.
India has nothing to lose by helping or ignoring your ellam or sihala??
You end up worse than Greece even if you get independence.
Greece cannot leave EU and if it does EU headed by Germany will drive it down and is the promise by EU.
Everything has a life span inclusive of language-
Nothing is permanent- Gautama.
Learn to live life by negotiation not by thuggery/or hoodwinking.
kali / April 15, 2014
Javi you Sinkalam:
You are cracking up man and the above shows how desperate you lot are. The ship is sinking and you lot are desperately looking for something to cling on to but sorry it is too late.
The following is the order of play.
May 16th New Government installed in India with the Iron Lady in the Driving Seat.
June the 1st International Inquiry Starts.
King Mahintha refuses to co operate.
Over a period Factories close
Nation grinds to a halt and starvation begins to bite as by then you would have eaten Kings and Gothas B…s.
So scavenging for food starts in earnest and this is what I call justice being meted out for Mullivaikal.
Javi / April 15, 2014
Kali, Cracking on the kalistan,
kaliban,I wont let the underdogs suffer/secret (it)out even for a fancy- (beautiful red moon today once in a blue moon0.
Don’t you know they’re talking about a revolution
It sounds like a whisper
HIV_K Husband Is Village Kandy
An attractive blonde and a handsome man step into the same elevator. The blonde sighs happily and says ‘TGIM’, and is surprised when the man replies ‘SHIT’.
The blonde thinks perhaps he didn’t hear her correctly, so she repeats it once again: ‘TGIM!’ and once again the man replies
‘S H I T’. Finally, the blonde explains ‘Sir, TGIM – Thank God it’s Monday!’
Stepping out of the elevator, the man smirks and says ‘S H I T – Sorry honey, it’s Thuesday.’ palayandi ponbule- digiri digale meenachi, digiri digale lei.
#stiff# iron clothes like the poms to see any iron lay lady lay, but kuduremuk iron ore reddy bjp smuggle to no 2 china.
Mittal is still no 1.
Hanuman ki Jai
Javi / April 13, 2014
“New Delhi Lutyens Bungalow Zone World Monuments built by the Brits in 1931”
The new PM on 31st May should seriously think of moving out of this hoodoo place smelling of alu poratas and give the nation a breather. This would minimise graft seriously.
You are good at two languages and one is stand alone, so what in a plural world??
It took the Jewish folk thousands of years to be Rothschild while there is white rule.
If you could study at least study conversational Hindi you would see another path to glory like the bamboo tree and proud of being I- The question isn’t who is going to let me; it’s who is going to stop me.
BTW Greek is also stand alone language and their financial crisis has erupted again never to go away for decades until something happens.
At the start it was in the 70’s that young students went across the sea and told their story to the south reluctant to go north (stupid holman)and that is how you connected to india and still like that (sic)Good luck.
Fathima Fukushima / April 13, 2014
This is an attempt to create Hindu-Muslim riots in SL like Gujarat 2002.
Javi / April 13, 2014
No to drop Al Shabaab HSM lifeless with one stone so no more thoppi pertu`|
We have always known how to enjoy ;)
kali / April 14, 2014
The Race riots is an invention by Sinhala Lanka and it is the Birth Place. The Hindus don’t Riot but fight for Freedom and the Muslims are not the Rulers of Sinhala Lanka so we don’t have to fight them. Yes we drove them out when they spied for you lot. But they have learnt the lesson and that is why they complained to Mrs.Pillai who is a Tamil about Sinhalese atrocities.
I know you are stupid and an Idiot so get some help or go for a Brain Transplant if one is available.
Antany Peter / April 13, 2014
We need group of Asian leaders under India’s leadership to sort out the Sri Lanka’s internal problem which can’t be fixed by the Rajapaksas or Jayatilleka. According to Gota’s small brain drama, Gobi managed to hide himself for five years, but came into the action just a week before the voting of the UNHRC. If you believe that you would believe anything. We all know that Gota orchestrated the drama to arrest the human rights activists to hide the truth and trying hard to fool the international community; however, his small brain foolish action won’t give that much leverage for the Rajapaksas to manoeuvre internationally in the future. Now the Gota’s small brain drama concludes with lives have been lost. The regime has no remorse for killing thousands of innocent people; killing few more people is nothing to them. The most dangerous regime can fool Sinhalese, but not the world. The Rajapaksa regime fails to understand the difference between the well informed world citizens and fooled Sri Lankan citizens who have been fighting since 1948.
The regime can win local votes by fooling its own people, but not the world. The country’s international credibility will continue to go backward, and place the country in a disaster. The worse is yet to come for Sri Lankans. It will get ugly for the Rajapaksa brothers; if the regime initiates its own domestic enquiry or international mechanism to investigate charges of war crimes and human rights violations in Sri Lanka. Therefore, the regime will not investigate the war crimes at all, but will take the North Korea’s path to keep their power. The foolish regime didn’t plan wisely to addresses the issues during and after the war. Inability to deal with the Tamils’ issues and India were the main reasons for the war, yet the regime has not addressed those main issues since the end of war in 2009. Therefore, the worse is yet to come for Sri Lankans. I have written a detail letter to the Indian government why the Rajapaksa regime must be removed sooner than later. I will forward the letter to the newly elected government after the India’s election.
Antany Peter / April 14, 2014
India should not have created the Tamil armed groups to deal with the JR’s foreign policy. The Tamils armed groups caused too much suffering and agony to Tamils and Sinhalese, due to India’s one of the worst political blunders. It took the Tamils backward, and brought a disgrace to the region of Asia. Indira Gandhi should have given an ultimatum to the Sri Lankan government and dealt with it accordingly, as Russia did with Ukraine. I am a great fan of Nelson Mandela than Mahatma Gandhi, because Nelson Mandela dealt with Whites and Black Africans. Mahatma Gandhi fought against the British well, but didn’t do that well with his fellow Indians. Gandhi’s blunder led to the creation of Pakistan.
Under the British rule the Subcontinent had the largest population than any other region in the world. The British was fearful of that and wanted to divide India badly. And the British had succeeded in their divide and conquer strategy, because of Gandhi’s inability to deal with his own people. Mahatma Gandhi knew what had been done by the British, but gutless and clueless to deal with his own fellow countrymen. The author articulates that Mahatma Gandhi’s moments just before the partition of India was helpless, but reluctantly approved to divide India. Finally, Mahatma Gandhi got shot for the decision he never masterminded or approved wholeheartedly. Gandhi’s leadership style is still dominating India, but undermining the Subcontinent. Would Modi brake this ugly side of Gandhi continuing? Only time will tell.
The Rajapaksa regime had too many opportunities and warnings, but it had decided to ignore everything. The Rajapaksa regime is too arrogant; it is the most foolish regime the country ever had. Sri Lankans have been fighting since 1948. The Rajapaksa brothers have the least educated ministers in their cabinet, in the history of Sri Lanka. Therefore, how can you expect them to sort those issues which have been going on for generations? I urge the Indian intellectuals to stop being naïve, but expect the worse. Tamils have been victimised for decades, time has come for the Indian leaders to deliver what is right and acceptable to Tamils. I hope Modi will turn India into muscular India, in order to deal with its useless and foolish neighbours.
kali / April 14, 2014
I don’t know where you got your information from but following is what I like to rely on which is closer to reality on the ground.
***The politics of forming India’s next government could come down to how many seats a 1960s matinee siren can wrest from a rival named Stalin.At stake are 39 parliamentary seats in Tamil Nadu, a southern state known for its ancient Hindu temples, its modern auto industry – and a history of electoral landslides.
With pollsters predicting that no party will win a majority in the 543-seat parliament, the caucus returned by India’s sixth-largest state could hold the key to forming a government after the five-week general election that starts on April 7.Tamil Nadu Chief Minister Jayalalithaa Jayaram – or ‘Jaya’ to her fans – is riding a wave of popularity that could take her AIADMK party’s seat count to 27, according to one survey, potentially casting her in a new role as national powerbroker.
Even with its allies, the BJP could fall some 40 seats short of the 272 needed for a majority in the national parliament, according to the poll. That is where regional players like Jayalalithaa come into the equation.Her reluctance to criticise the BJP’s candidate for prime minister, Narendra Modi, and a past dalliance with his party, suggest she is positioning herself for power and influence in the next government.”Jayalalithaa is both in the BJP alliance and not in it,” said N. Sathiya Moorthy, director of the Chennai chapter of the Observer Research Foundation, a think tank.Her ability to dictate terms – or even stake a claim to the premiership – would depend on how big a “last mile” problem the BJP faces in cobbling together a majority.
A weaker BJP result would strengthen Jayalalithaa’s hand, as she eyes the alternative of a coalition made up of regional parties, often referred to as a ‘Third Front’.”Within these different groups, anyone with 25-30 MPs is going to be contender for the prime minister’s position,” said commentator Sankaran. “And if Jayalalithaa has 30 MPs from Tamil Nadu, she will be able to demand the prime ministership.”
Sengodan. M / April 14, 2014
You may be right. We can patiently wraith until May 16th. In the meantime, Tamils take care not to unnecessarily antagonise anyone, especially an ally, whether real or potential. It is always good to act with caution.
Javi / April 14, 2014
Kalistan the nalli cut ;)
More than 50% of India’s current population is below the age of 25 and over 65% below the age of 35. About 72.2% of the population lives in some 638,000 villages and the rest 27.8% in about 5,480 towns and urban agglomerations.
The population of the second most populous state Maharashtra, which has a growth rate of 9.42%, is equal to that of Mexico’s population. Bihar, with 8.07%, is the third most populous state in India and its population is more than Germany’s. West Bengal with 7.79% growth rate, Andhra Pradesh (7.41%) and Tamil Nadu (6.07%) are at fourth, fifth and sixth positions respectively.
Uttar Pradesh 85
West Bengal 42
Andhra Pradesh 42
Madhya Pradesh 40
Tamil Nadu 39
The rich always “run”;
the rich always win;
the rich always have power;
the rich always get the best; and,
most of all,
the rich always break their promises to the
poor fools who voted for them.
Jaya cannot get 40 and if she does then it would be another graft disaster.
If she gets then it’s on language issue and to start a war with neighbour- therefore No Go for PM ship. Bangala war was a disaster but worth it from division and security point of view.
New nuclear policy will be to check Pakistan and Diego Garcia.- first strike.
As long as Russian backup is there China will never budge and in any case they have never fought other persons war and don’t depend anyone else.
India has enough of turn coats at the drop of a hat to keep it Hindu/Hindi than be dictated by SC/ST Tamil Nadu Tamils. Therefore I made a suggestion about language to Siva a sensible man.
India Today New Delhi: A few days after BJP leader Varun Gandhi’s praise for cousin Rahul Gandhi’s development work in his constituency Amethi raised eyebrows, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra said on Saturday that her brother and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leader Varun Gandhi has chosen a wrong path and urged them to lead him to the right way.
Addressing party workers in the Uttar Pradesh’s Sultanpur district on Saturday, Priyanka said, “Varun is my brother and has chosen a wrong path. So, I urge you all to lead him to the right way.”
SC/ST Mayawathie of UP will not back Jaya.
In 2009 alone, over 129 of the elected people had criminal records, several with murder convictions. Among those running for office, Congress–114 with criminal records, BJP–113, BSP-105 and so on
So you have to buy them and keep them but without language you are just another angrejika kuttha- this is hard fact. You can never fool a fan.
Hindustan ki jai.
kali / April 15, 2014
Javi you Sinkalam:
You have wasted your time spending your time on some irrelevant rubbish which frankly doesn’t make any sense and is garbage. Next time write something on Mahavamsa which might make a better reading.
Javi / April 16, 2014
Javi / April 16, 2014
Save Your Breath
This forum itself is a product of the very sihala mahavasaham-Smashola
Toxic Sock Syndrome ;)