By S. I. Keethaponcalan –
Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan
Parliament was dissolved on June 26, 2015 and the general election has been scheduled to take place on August 17. Under normal circumstances, attention would have turned to strengths and weaknesses of the ruling and opposition parties. This time, however, everyone wants to know what would be the next move of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, because his decisions and actions could very well determine the outcome of the election and the next government.
Rajapaksa wants to be nominated as the prime ministerial candidate because he believes that he has the popular support to win the election. Indeed, he seems to have the capacity to win this election as a Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate. He has been supporting the campaign to bring him back to power and according to reports, he has asked President Sirisena, to nominate him. There are two ways for Rajapaksa to contest this election. Either contest under the SLFP-led coalition or form his own group and contest.
Options
The first option seems completely impractical largely due the resistance of President Sirisena. Sirisena most probably will not nominate Rajapaksa as the prime ministerial candidate. One, the hostility between Sirisena and Rajapaksa is too serious and Sirisena does not trust the former president’s motivations. He would not have forgotten the realities that existed during the presidential election. Two, if elected and appointed as the prime minister, Rajapaksa would completely overshadow the president due his sheer personality. Rajapaksa, also has the support within the party to dominate the government. He will not be a nominal prime minister, but in practice would transform the president into an insignificant figurehead. Sirisena is not going to like that. Third, paving the way for Rajapaksa to become the prime minister could very well go against the mandate given in January 2015. The mandate was to remove Rajapaksa from power. It is imperative to note that Rajapaksa has the right to contest and hold office, but Sirisena has no moral authority to bring him pack to power.
The second option, i.e, forming his own group and contesting under a separate symbol also seems remote due to Rajapaksa’s loyalty towards his party. Leading his own group formally to contest the election will divide the SLFP. Meanwhile, it is also important to note that there are minor political parties and individual members of the SLFP who would be hesitant to contest under the SLFP-led coalition if Rajapaksa is not accommodated. These groups and individuals probably want to contest as a separate entity and would compel Rajapaksa to lead the group. One option available for Rajapaksa is to informally endorse and promote the third front, which is loyal to him. This would be an extension of Rajapaksa’s present strategy. Rajapaksa will have the option of entering parliament from the national list of this third front after the election.
One of the secondary reasons why Rajapaksa probably is not keen to leave the SLFP and lead his own group is that he is not sure how much votes he could garner in a general election. In the last presidential election, he polled 47.58 percent of the votes cast. He cannot assume that he or his group will get all of these votes because in a general election voters cast their votes for regional leaders. For example, in January, most of the SLFP supporters would have voted for Rajapaksa, but in the general election they will vote for candidates of their preference and one could safely assume that many of them will vote for SLFP candidates. Rajapaksa alone cannot determine these votes. What is clear is that Rajapaksa’s 48 percent will definitely break. This equation will also play a part in Rajapaksa’s decision, which is expected to be announced soon.
The UNP
Meanwhile, the United National Party (UNP), which headed the government, is also facing a dilemma and some level of uncertainty. The UNP-led coalition that promoted Maithripala Sirisena during the presidential election, polled 51.28 percent of the votes. There is no reason to believe that a substantial number of voters who backed Rajapaksa in January will vote for the UNP in the general election. Therefore, basically, the UNP has to work with the 51 percent votes.
However, the coalition that won the 51 percent cannot be retained. The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) cannot and most probably would not contest under a UNP-led coalition. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which indirectly promoted candidate Sirisena will contest alone as it cannot support the SLFP or the UNP. A vast majority of the Tamil votes in the North and East which went to Sirisena in the presidential election will go to the TNA (and other Tamil parties). The UNP-led alliance also gained SLFP votes that favored Sirisena. These votes will go to the SLFP in the general election; not the UNP. Sirisena is expected to lead the SLFP campaign and he probably will promote his party mainly because of the pressure from the Rajapaksa faction. He cannot be neutral.
This will take at least 15 percent of the total votes from what the UNP-led coalition gained in January. Consequently, the UNP most probably will struggle to win 50 percent of the parliamentary seats. Therefore, in order to retain power, the UNP would try to form a broad coalition before and after the election. The nature and scope of this coalition will determine the UNP’s capacity to win this election. The UNP single handedly cannot win the election. It is possible that the UNP presently is trying to woo the minority parties including Muslim parties, the TNA and Mano Ganesan’s Democratic People’s Front. The Ceylon Worker’s Congress (CWC) and some of the other plantation Tamil parties could also be wooed.
The President
However, if Rajapaksa decides to contest directly or indirectly, the UNP’s chances will increase drastically as it would divide the SLFP votes, which in turn would facilitate more “bonus seats” for the UNP. This is exactly why Rajapaksa’s decision is significant in this election. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s challenge to Rajapaksa to contest and defeat him cannot be mere rhetoric. It is part of the strategy. From the president’s point of view this scenario cannot be too bad because the Sirisena-UNP partnership seems to be working well and most probably will continue. Also, if the UNP manages to form the government, the president will be able to control both major parties as head of the government and the leader of the SLFP.
*Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan is Chair of the Conflict Resolution Department, Salisbury University, Maryland.
Thamilan / June 29, 2015
Good analysis.
But I think this is going to be another presidential style parliamentary election between Rajapakse and Ranil!
No contest pacts with the smaller the parties shall decide the winner.
/
Amarasiri / June 29, 2015
Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan
RE: Parliament Dissolved: An Initial Assessment
Parliament Dissolved: An Initial Assessment is that there are two Spineless Wimps Maithripala Sirisena And Ranil Wickramasinghe, who just talked and not shoot.
Now the Rajapaksa and their cronies are at large.
That is what happens when there are spineless men and wimps.
The Vandals take over.. the Rajapaksa Vandals..
MaRa Ma Ra Chatu MaRa amana MaRa ar Large
/
Yakkadaya / June 29, 2015
Amarasiri
Why don’t you train them to shoot through your posterior.
/
Amarasiri / June 29, 2015
Yakkadaya
“Why don’t you train them to shoot through your posterior.” You can do that.
The Rajapaksas are shooting at them through the Rajapaksa posteriors, and these wimps were just sitting there, with loaded guns.
Theyy need to get off thier buts and shoot down the Crooks, Robbers and Criminals headed by Mahinda Rajapaksa. that is what the people want.
[Edited out]
/
mike / June 30, 2015
Yakkodaya
It appears you are a Rajafucksa posterior fan. Good luck in your endeavours for further advancement !
/
Native Vedda / June 30, 2015
mike
Earlier you asked Anpu
“Who will be our next President? Dayan Shillva !!”
Have you considered
Mrs Shashi Weerawansa
Mrs Shiranthi Rajapaksa
Mrs Ioma Rajapaksa
Duminda Silva’s pet mistress
Gnanasara’s pet mistress.
…….
…..
Mrs Anoma Indumathi Fonseka
/
Yakkadaya / July 2, 2015
‘It appears you are a Rajafucksa posterior fan’.
This is seriously your posterior frating.
Let Rajapakse go to hell with the coming election. Let him enjoy the privileges other war criminals are enjoying at present.
Will he get kottu rotti, rice pudding, curries in gorakka etc. Poor chap has to settle with oats and sandwich until he pays for the disservice to his nations people.
/
Lanka Watch / June 30, 2015
Amarasiri -By 15th July 2015, you will know who is the victor and the who is the vanquished and whose back bone is broken. The President should ensure full security for people against vandalism ,even if he has to engage police personnel, paying overtime and that is all he has to do and the people will do the needful to bring back good governance.
This will be the final blow by the public to nepotism, corruption,
political thuggery, intimidation tactics and communal brainwashing and perpetrators will vanish from the political scene and you be ready for a fresh lease of life.
/
Anuruddha / June 29, 2015
@Amarasiri
Get a life. Grow up.
Prsident Maithree is not a wimp. He’s a gentle chap. All too long, Lankans have been worshipping politicians who are thugs and murderers. Ranil is not the ideal leader; but at least, he’s not a thug or a crook like the Raja.
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Amarasiri / June 29, 2015
Anuruddha
“Lankans have been worshipping politicians who are thugs and murderers. Ranil is not the ideal leader; but at least, he’s not a thug or a crook like the Raja.”
Why are not the crooks, Robbers and Criminals still at large? They should be in jail
When you have to shoot, shoot, not just talk.
So Maitri and Ranil are gentle with them? They, MaRa, are going to eat these two “Gentle ” Characters, called wimps, alive.
/
Amarasiri / June 30, 2015
Anuruddha
“Prsident Maithree is not a wimp. He’s a gentle chap”
Do you mean he is King Siri Sangabo?
We will know on Tuesday, according to Medamulana Mahinda Rajapaksa, the Liar, the Crook, the Robber and the Criminal, who claims he does not know, only Modayas, Mootals, Fools, Idiots, and Imbeciles believe.
/
Native Vedda / June 30, 2015
Anuruddha
“Ranil is not the ideal leader; but at least, he’s not a thug or a crook like the Raja.”
He is not a smart patriot either according to self confessed war monger and smart ass patriot Dayan Jayatilleka.
What do you say to him?
/
thondamannar / June 29, 2015
TNA crossing en-masse to the UNP.
UNP running helter skelter not knowing how to cope…………
“Prsident Maithree is not a wimp. He’s a gentle chap”- anurudda
BUT HIS FORE FINGER TRADE MARK DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR HIM… SIMILAR TO THAT OF HITLER’S…. STYLE.
/
Sellam / June 29, 2015
Seems to be a good analysis of the present position of the political parties. As far as Tamils are concerned, the position of the Tamils would be the same. “Ramar Aandhal enna or Ravanan Asndhal enna” situation. The Tamils would be a second class citizens whether “Rama Rules or Ravana Rules” The Tamil politicians will have their usual gala time, whoever who is elected, enjoying their position and status. Of course they will shout at platforms telling the people, they will do this and that. Once elected they will completely forget the people. Of course they are spineless men
/
Pygmalion / June 29, 2015
President M.S is on record as having said that if MaRa is nominated as the PM candidate of the SLFP, his next step to become the President is only a Bullet away constitutionally!
/
Analyst / June 29, 2015
President Maithri need to prove that he’s not a whimp or a walkover and this is the utmost urgency to prove himself right now and not tomorrow or day after. While these crooks and murderers are salivating with the thought of getting back to power should be quashed at once. We voted for a change ,why these imbeciles can’t understand the meaning of regime change.
Hope the President is aware of allowing these crooks to come to power will be considered as a total betrayal to the good citizens who voted him to power on the day in January.
What a huge sigh of relief and the victory all round for the supporters of the regime change on that victorious day theY all rejoiced at Maithri’s victory.
Can’t imagine how the country will change in the hands of that family and thug supporters all in the name of the Religion.
Can we go back to that chapter of threats murders swindling state finance etc??
My mind boggles and shudders .
I only hope the Slankans will vote for a better future rather than a corrupt individuals whose main ambition is to line their own pockets.
The swindled and stashed away state funds will be gone forever in the hands of these criminals pretending to be rulers rulers SL.
MY FOOT.
/
Charles / June 29, 2015
A very good and realistic analysis which is the factual situation.
Under the prevailing situation, President Maithripal Sirisena by his actions during this short period has emerged as the most popular leader of the country. His popularity has grown and he has also won the hearts of the minorities which no other SLFP leader was able to achieve other than President Chandrika.
I believe, if President Maithripal nominates honest and untainted people under his alliance minus the former President and some of the tainted politicians, and gives leadership and campaigns actively it will be a major challenge to the UNP and they could loose the minority vote bank which traditionally went to UNP.
If there is a third front headed by the former President it will split the anti UNP votes and UNP will be the ultimate winner.The JVP with their organizational skills and untainted reputation may capture a sizeable number of seats and they could play a major role in a hung Parliament in addition to the TNA which will have a substantial number of seats.
Whichever party wins let us hope they have workable majority since unlike in the past the President could dissolve the Parliament only after 4 1/2 years even if there is a hung parliament.
/
Lasanda / June 29, 2015
You are day dreaming in merry land….. Ground situation is very different from what you think. Mahinda has already won the game!!!
/
TokyoRose / June 30, 2015
Is there hope that the COPE report is a hoax? Can there be hope so UNP and Arjuna will not elope? Is MR unable to cope and hope that COPE will bring him a power grope that the powers of the Pope cannot cope .
/
Lanka Watch / June 30, 2015
The author of this article has analysed the current political situation
very clearly and the leading party leaders, specially the President, should have a serious look at it and work on it fast. According to the analysis, there will a three party contest, if the president does not go back on his word. UNP has a good chance of winning due SLFP split but Ranil has already, as usual, started the rot by challenging MR,
even before SLFP/UPFA decided as to what to do with him.
Even after losing several elections, Ranil has not learnt to be polite and diplomatic. He always thought that he was the darling of the people
but people had different other views. UNP nomination committee should be watchful as he will play a ‘bull in the China shop’ role and pick the wrong people. If UNP, wants to win the election,should not go for it alone but look for coalition partners like JVP and the minority parties at the earliest possible time as time is running out for a possible victory. They should not bank on MS’s MPs as there is a possibility that there could be a cross over, en masse if MR comes anywhere closer to become the PM as they tasted the perks before in the last regime. SLFP & UNP are sworn enemies and a coalition of the willing is not possible, unless forced to. It is like getting Dems. & Reps working as coalition partners in USA.
The President should hold on to some of the stalwarts like Sri Pala
De Silva, Premajit and Yapa at any cost, even offering deputy Premier
ship position, if he wants to put up a formidable fight against MR’s party to ensure their defeat. Minority votes will go to regional parties like SLMC,TNA & TPA and not to MS and JVP, who now has a considerable vote bank, will be in demand and the party that grabs
them early as a coalition partner will have the advantage.
/
kali / June 30, 2015
Parliament Dissolved: An Initial Assessment
June 29, 2015 | Filed under: Colombo Telegraph,Opinion | Posted by: COLOMBO_TELEGRAPH
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By S. I. Keethaponcalan –
Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan
Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan
Parliament was dissolved on June 26, 2015 and the general election has been scheduled to take place on August 17. Under normal circumstances, attention would have turned to strengths and weaknesses of the ruling and opposition parties. This time, however, everyone wants to know what would be the next move of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, because his decisions and actions could very well determine the outcome of the election and the next government.
Rajapaksa wants to be nominated as the prime ministerial candidate because he believes that he has the popular support to win the election. Indeed, he seems to have the capacity to win this election as a Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate. He has been supporting the campaign to bring him back to power and according to reports, he has asked President Sirisena, to nominate him. There are two ways for Rajapaksa to contest this election. Either contest under the SLFP-led coalition or form his own group and contest.
Options
The first option seems completely impractical largely due the resistance of President Sirisena. Sirisena most probably will not nominate Rajapaksa as the prime ministerial candidate. One, the hostility between Sirisena and Rajapaksa is too serious and Sirisena does not trust the former president’s motivations. He would not have forgotten the realities that existed during the presidential election. Two, if elected and appointed as the prime minister, Rajapaksa would completely overshadow the president due his sheer personality. Rajapaksa, also has the support within the party to dominate the government. He will not be a nominal prime minister, but in practice would transform the president into an insignificant figurehead. Sirisena is not going to like that. Third, paving the way for Rajapaksa to become the prime minister could very well go against the mandate given in January 2015. The mandate was to remove Rajapaksa from power. It is imperative to note that Rajapaksa has the right to contest and hold office, but Sirisena has no moral authority to bring him pack to power.
Maithri MahindaThe second option, i.e, forming his own group and contesting under a separate symbol also seems remote due to Rajapaksa’s loyalty towards his party. Leading his own group formally to contest the election will divide the SLFP. Meanwhile, it is also important to note that there are minor political parties and individual members of the SLFP who would be hesitant to contest under the SLFP-led coalition if Rajapaksa is not accommodated. These groups and individuals probably want to contest as a separate entity and would compel Rajapaksa to lead the group. One option available for Rajapaksa is to informally endorse and promote the third front, which is loyal to him. This would be an extension of Rajapaksa’s present strategy. Rajapaksa will have the option of entering parliament from the national list of this third front after the election.
One of the secondary reasons why Rajapaksa probably is not keen to leave the SLFP and lead his own group is that he is not sure how much votes he could garner in a general election. In the last presidential election, he polled 47.58 percent of the votes cast. He cannot assume that he or his group will get all of these votes because in a general election voters cast their votes for regional leaders. For example, in January, most of the SLFP supporters would have voted for Rajapaksa, but in the general election they will vote for candidates of their preference and one could safely assume that many of them will vote for SLFP candidates. Rajapaksa alone cannot determine these votes. What is clear is that Rajapaksa’s 48 percent will definitely break. This equation will also play a part in Rajapaksa’s decision, which is expected to be announced soon.
The UNP
Meanwhile, the United National Party (UNP), which headed the government, is also facing a dilemma and some level of uncertainty. The UNP-led coalition that promoted Maithripala Sirisena during the presidential election, polled 51.28 percent of the votes. There is no reason to believe that a substantial number of voters who backed Rajapaksa in January will vote for the UNP in the general election. Therefore, basically, the UNP has to work with the 51 percent votes.
However, the coalition that won the 51 percent cannot be retained. The Jathika Hela Urumaya (JHU) cannot and most probably would not contest under a UNP-led coalition. The Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), which indirectly promoted candidate Sirisena will contest alone as it cannot support the SLFP or the UNP. A vast majority of the Tamil votes in the North and East which went to Sirisena in the presidential election will go to the TNA (and other Tamil parties). The UNP-led alliance also gained SLFP votes that favored Sirisena. These votes will go to the SLFP in the general election; not the UNP. Sirisena is expected to lead the SLFP campaign and he probably will promote his party mainly because of the pressure from the Rajapaksa faction. He cannot be neutral.
This will take at least 15 percent of the total votes from what the UNP-led coalition gained in January. Consequently, the UNP most probably will struggle to win 50 percent of the parliamentary seats. Therefore, in order to retain power, the UNP would try to form a broad coalition before and after the election. The nature and scope of this coalition will determine the UNP’s capacity to win this election. The UNP single handedly cannot win the election. It is possible that the UNP presently is trying to woo the minority parties including Muslim parties, the TNA and Mano Ganesan’s Democratic People’s Front. The Ceylon Worker’s Congress (CWC) and some of the other plantation Tamil parties could also be wooed.
The President
However, if Rajapaksa decides to contest directly or indirectly, the UNP’s chances will increase drastically as it would divide the SLFP votes, which in turn would facilitate more “bonus seats” for the UNP. This is exactly why Rajapaksa’s decision is significant in this election. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s challenge to Rajapaksa to contest and defeat him cannot be mere rhetoric. It is part of the strategy. From the president’s point of view this scenario cannot be too bad because the Sirisena-UNP partnership seems to be working well and most probably will continue. Also, if the UNP manages to form the government, the president will be able to control both major parties as head of the government and the leader of the SLFP.
*Dr. S. I. Keethaponcalan is Chair of the Conflict Resolution Department, Salisbury University, Maryland.
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kali / June 30, 2015
Readers please ignore the above. It was due to Software problems. It was highly temporamental like “Gotha”.
My full analysis is posted below.
/
Native Vedda / June 30, 2015
kalistani
” It was due to Software problems.”
Are you still blaming the Y2K crisis?
Its something to do with you brain (network of interconnected neurons) I suspect it was damaged at your birth.
Get neuro-scientists to fix it though it is difficult but no harm in trying.
/
kali / June 30, 2015
Grandad you Senile old Stateless So & So.
You are loosing your Grey Matter by the minute. Or to be precise I am not sure if you have got any left.
/
Ram / June 30, 2015
Native,
This guy kali is a half mental coward. I am ashamed that he is a Tamil.
/
kali / June 30, 2015
Ram you Sinkalam;
There are 5.8 million mad men like you in Sinkala Lanka. On the odd chance you are Tamil you must be in the Camp of Karuna and Douglas.
A True Tamil doesnt hide behind a Tamil name. Only Cowrads like you do.
So you have now come up to stick up Native.
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Native Vedda / June 30, 2015
Ram
“I am ashamed that he is a Tamil.”
Who said he is a Tamil?
He is a Tamil speaking Singhalam.
Check his and K A Sumanasekere’s DNA, you will see that both are genetically close to Tamil Nadu Tamils.
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kali / July 1, 2015
Grandad:
Have you heard the word Slip of the Tongue. Man you have given the Secret away.
“I am ashamed that he is a Tamil.”
Only a Tamil will be ashamed not a Sinkalam.
A Sinkalam will be delighted. But you are ashamed and Saddened.
Thank you my dear Grandad. Blood ( Tamil Blood) is thicker than Sinkala Water.
/
kali / July 1, 2015
Ram:
Let us solve this mystery once and for all. [Edited out]
/
Malli / June 30, 2015
Your Analysis? my foot.
/
kali / June 30, 2015
Malli:
What is wrong with your foot. Cant you walk. Either Gangarene has set in or you are suffering from Elephantitis.
Gangrene is a serious condition in which a loss of blood supply causes body tissue to die. It can affect any part of the body but typically starts in the toes, feet ( my foot) , fingers and hands.
It looks like it is too late. See an UNDERTAKER.
/
Yakkadaya / July 2, 2015
Kali,
You are kalli and a [Edited out].
/
R K Raghavan / July 1, 2015
[Edited out]
/
Native Vedda / July 2, 2015
R K Raghavan
“[Edited out]”
Thanks for keeping it brief.
By any chance you are related to ela kolla?
/
K.A Sumanasekera / June 30, 2015
Surely JHU couldn’t have contested under Rajapaksa, even if Yahapalana Police didn’t catch the Reverend’s Coordinating Sec with his bag of KUDU?.
Wonder where Sira would put Abiththaya?…
/
kali / June 30, 2015
Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan
Parliament Dissolved: An Initial Assessment:
*** You have heard the saying that There is ” Life at the end of the Tunnel”
You have reached the end of the Tunnel and seen day light.
i e
“The President
However, if Rajapaksa decides to contest directly or indirectly, the UNP’s chances will increase drastically as it would divide the SLFP votes, which in turn would facilitate more “bonus seats” for the UNP. This is exactly why Rajapaksa’s decision is significant in this election. Prime Minister Wickremesinghe’s challenge to Rajapaksa to contest and defeat him cannot be mere rhetoric. It is part of the strategy. From the president’s point of view this scenario cannot be too bad because the Sirisena-UNP partnership seems to be working well and most probably will continue. Also, if the UNP manages to form the government, the president will be able to control both major parties as head of the government and the leader of the SLFP.
*** The above is Spot on.
But how you got there through Darkness and MUD is a mystery.
Let me expalain what I mean.
1) This time, however, everyone wants to know what would be the next move of former president Mahinda Rajapaksa, because his decisions and actions could very well determine the outcome of the election and the next government.
*** Agreed.
2) Rajapaksa wants to be nominated as the prime ministerial candidate because he believes that he has the popular support to win the election. Indeed, he seems to have the capacity to win this election as a Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP) candidate. Either contest under the SLFP-led coalition or form his own group and contest.
*** This is a Parliamentray election and not a Presidential Election and no doubt the Rajapas factor will play a crucial role but the popularity of the Candidate and local factors will also have an influence. It is not a forgone conclusion.
Just take for example if there is a fight in Hambanthotta bewteen Sarath Premadasa vs Rajapaksa a Rajapaksa win is not guaranteed. Sarath is equally popular.
Options
3) One, the hostility between Sirisena and Rajapaksa is too serious and Sirisena does not trust the former president’s motivations. He would not have forgotten the realities that existed during the presidential election. Two, if elected and appointed as the prime minister, Rajapaksa would completely overshadow the president due his sheer personality.
*** This has been resolved after the abolotion of the Executive Presidencey. So it will be consensus Politics. Otherwise there will be Trouble which either PM or President cannot afford.
4) Rajapaksa, also has the support within the party to dominate the government. He will not be a nominal prime minister, but in practice would transform the president into an insignificant figurehead.
*** You have already reached a Verdict even before the elections. How do you know he will have the Majority of MPs.
5) Third, paving the way for Rajapaksa to become the prime minister could very well go against the mandate given in January 2015. The mandate was to remove Rajapaksa from power. It is imperative to note that Rajapaksa has the right to contest and hold office, but Sirisena has no moral authority to bring him pack to power.
*** What are you talking about. You have got everthing muddled up. It is a democracy and if people elect him ( Srisena cannot bring him back) in Fresh Elections he will have the mandate.
Barak Obama has to work with Republican Majority. So what is wrong. Get your facts right.
6) In the last presidential election, he polled 47.58 percent of the votes cast. He cannot assume that he or his group will get all of these votes because in a general election voters cast their votes for regional leaders.
*** Again you are confused. Stop saying regional leaders. They are Parliamentary Candidates to be elected as Members of Parliament.
7) For example, in January, most of the SLFP supporters would have voted for Rajapaksa.
*** Not that they would have voted. They did vote for MR. 5.8 million. Majority of the Mjority.
8) The UNP-led coalition that promoted Maithripala Sirisena during the presidential election, polled 51.28 percent of the votes. There is no reason to believe that a substantial number of voters who backed Rajapaksa in January will vote for the UNP in the general election. Therefore, basically, the UNP has to work with the 51 percent votes.
*** I am not sure what you mean by “The UNP-led coalition that promoted Maithripala Sirisena during the presidential election”.
MS wasnt promoted. He was elected.
The 51.28 % is also made up of Tamil Votes. UNP vote in my view will hold but what happens to the Core SLFP votes will very much depend on whether or nor MR decides to Stand and if so under what banner.
My feeling is that MR will not stand as he knows that with a split vote he will be finally Humiliated and the UNP will be the beneficiary.
Finally we have reached ashore. Your analytical skills leave a lot to be desired.
/
Mugabe / June 30, 2015
“This has been resolved after the abolotion of the Executive Presidencey. So it will be consensus Politics. Otherwise there will be Trouble which either PM or President cannot afford.”
This moron think the executive presidency has been abolished. Which world are you living,[Edited out]
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kali / June 30, 2015
Mugabe:
You are at least honest by choosing an African Name unlike the other Sinkalms who hide behind Tamil Name
Sinkala Sankaran Sarma springs to mind.
As to which planet I am on the answer is Morons like you live on the Planet of the “Apes” and I live in a Civilised World.
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kali / June 30, 2015
Mugabe:
You bloody African Dictator. You cant wag your tail ( Executive Presidency) anymore as that was cut off by the Tamil Tsunami.
Sinhabahu or (“Lion-arms”), was the son of a Vanga princess and a lion. He killed his father and became king of Vanga. His son Vijaya would emigrate to Lanka and become the progenitor of the Sinhala people.
/
Don Quixote / June 30, 2015
Kali,
Without tearing someone’s article apart why don’t you have the guts to write your own ?
Is it that you are worried that your real name and photo will be seen ?
/
Mugabe / June 30, 2015
This kali guy is a moron and a half nuts. He does not even know what he is talking. A coward thats why he hide his name. he think the executive presidency is gone and talks. Now say “executive presidency was cut of by Tamil tsunami.” Really which world are you living. Grow up. Importantly get up and do something useful.
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kali / June 30, 2015
Mugabe:
You African Dictator.
Cant you read. There is no need to get Agitated only Animals do and that is why they are kept in a Cage. I have already told unlike you who lives in the Planet of the APES I live in a Civilised World.
What do you do for living. I take it that you help Sinhala Mankind. What a difficult Job. No return on it.
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kali / June 30, 2015
Don Quixote:
What is your point mate.
So instead of Commenting on my Comment and how I should express my views why dont you either write your own or shut up. Who are you tell me. This is a Free Press and if you chose to write you expect to criticised.
Has it ever occuered to you that when you write something you want people to read and there is always a Message Behind it.
But coming from Mahintha the Dictaors Camp it doesnt surprise me you dont believe in Freedom of Expression.
Who is Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan. Is he the King of the Universe. Immune from Criticism.
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Mugabe / June 30, 2015
Kali has no guts my friend no guts.
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kali / June 30, 2015
Mugabe you African Dictator:
I entirely agree with you. You need GUTS to talk like a fool and act like a fool as you are doing.
But the hall mark of Cowards is they are Honest and Straightforward. They lack GUTS.
Animals have big Guts stretching from Throat to Anus.
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Native Vedda / June 30, 2015
kalistani
You need brain to say anything sensible.
“Animals have big Guts stretching from Throat to Anus.”
How long is your’s?
Amma has won the elections today. When are you expecting Tamil National Army to arrive here?
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kali / June 30, 2015
Grandad
You SENILE, OLD & IDIOTIC. After the AR REhman Debacle I thought you might have retired Gracefully. No not a bit just like the THUG you want to make a fool of yourself
How long is my Gut. Mine is Human so it is as follows
about 1.5 meters
However, it is shorter than the small intestine – only about 1.5 meters (5 feet) long.”
I cant speak for Half Animal and Half Human. So I dont know long yours is.
As for Amma. She was a winner when she was in Santhias Womb and she polled 96%.
As for TNA they arrived on the 8th January and the first act was to cancell Collombo Port City and then the Chinese
As for where they are for your information they are based in Sampur.
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The Other Gray Panther / July 1, 2015
Dear Fellow Senior(?) citizen aka Native Vedda,
“Grandad You SENILE, OLD & IDIOTIC.”
Maybe this comment does not insult you but it does insult me.
I thought that there is a CT policy prohibiting abuse based on age among many other things. For some reason CT allows abuse.
I have seen the person calling himself/herself “kali” taking up the religious and marital background of Dr Dayan J. Even the appearance of Dr Dayan J and his daughter has received abusing comments from “kali”. Many of his/her worse comments have thankfully been edited out.
As long as this kind of comments are allowed I am not going to provide my name and picture here. I do not want to receive comments based on my ethnic and religious background or age. The way I and my family members look like is a private matter.
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kali / July 3, 2015
The Other Gray Panther:
Let me deal with your concerns in respect of ageism which seems to have affected you personally. From that it is obvious you fall into that category . For that I am sorry and accept my sincere apologies.
From what you expect CT to do to eradicate abuse I am at a loss to understand why you display Double Standards.
I dont know whether you are Tamil or Sinhalese but from your silence of Challenging CT allowing people ( I am afraid all Sinhalese Racists ) to glorify Nathikadal I can only assume that you are Sinhalese and a Racist.
Dayan the Born RACIST deserves everthing he gets and my attack on his Non Existant Daughter seems to have received the flak only from you. I have received commendation from the Majority.
So dont teach me what is moral and what is Immoral.
I stand by what I said about Dayan. He was asking for it.
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ramona therese fernando / June 30, 2015
In the aftermath of UNP’s ever-ready desire to open up negotiations for a quasi to whole country-secession, it is expected that 100% of JHU and JVP will be with Rajapaksa this time round.
All Rajapaksa has to do is give assurance of 1) Affirmative Sinhala Nationalism (not the racist type, but the inclusive type, with Sinhala language and culture evolving into the harmonious and true neutral benchmark of country culture and heritage for all races, and 2) a greater move towards socialist culture, where Buddhist precepts will be the harmonious and true neutral benchmark of country operations (e.g. no-more of the frenzied associations with unsustainable Chinese capitalism).
Country unity and heritage over money is the rallying cry…..even the N&E will buy into this provided capitalistic (courtesy China) show-off tendencies are not used to subjugate the N&E. Otherwise, the voting will spread out too thinly in whatever style Rajapaksa decides to consolidate, leading PM’ship to inconsequentiality.
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fazeel Hussain / June 30, 2015
The simplest thing to do is arrest Mahinda. There would enough evidence to do so, or Maithri can show how compassionate he could be by using his still existing presidential powers as MR did to Sarath Fonseka. This is a must to prevent Maithri becoming a lame duck president and the country going back to the Rajapaksa era of intimidation, violence and murder. No, one who backed the common candidate would be spared if Mahinda takes control of parliament. Sirisena would just be a sitting duck
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Hilmy Ahamed / June 30, 2015
What Ranil and Sirisena partnership has deceived in their current partnership augers well for the country. They have set the tone for a decent march forward. I do not believe that MR’s entry is going to allow him to take the reins. Yes, he would get probably 30 to 40 seats, but the UNP will get a minimum of 90 seats on their own. The minorities, even if they contest alone would to join Ranil and not MR, so he would have a comfortable majority in parliament. Maithri is certain to put his lot along with Ranil in support of a national government which could have the 2/3rd majority. The next parliament could and should come up with a new, well thought of constitution that would drive Sri Lanka to true reconciliation, peace and unprecedented development.
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Vanguard / June 30, 2015
A good, objective analysis.
By the way are we back to 50/50?
“Hakeem confesses Regrets sending MR home”-Ceylon Today 25 Jun 2015.
Thank you for giving MR a fourth option.
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Sirisena Yatawara / June 30, 2015
Who will loose or win majority that voters has to understand, however MS, UNP-Wickaramsinghe and & CBK has betray their promises 160 days, after what they committed to public Presidential election 2015 January .
1 An appointment of minority Primer by MS President by violated Republic Constitution. They have Betray good governance’s which democracy norms & values accepts by ex-President MR.
2 Removed CJ from supreme court against Constitution, and without go through Parliamentary procedure by MS junta. That shows how that MS junta undermined Judiciary independence. How MS that discard ‘rule of law’ after 200 years of Supreme court practices of accepted norms of Judiciary.
3 MS leadership of government has committed financial crime of inside trading of Central Bank an issues Bonds by Governor Mahindra back by UNP Wickramasinghe, Samarawickrama & Kabir Hasseim of Junta rule.
MS keep blind eye on that an issue and at last he was forced to dissolved Parliament to save Misrule of UNP and coved grave crime committed by UNP-leader Ranil W..& click. How can they fight against mega or big corruptions?
4 Stop Development! since 2015 January 09th ongoing all major of previous Govt. development projects STOP by MS, UNP-Wick and CBK junta which is that irrational decision which taken by misrule of rule led of MS. This move has done irrecoverable damages to our Rapid growing national economy since 2005 led by MR ruling alliances.
5 MS political hipcoracy of democracy has an open new avenues to Tamil Separatist in north and out of our country to be promoted Tamil Terrorism Island and worldwide.
MS governance is lack of clear accountability relationships of between promised and practices. This created irreconcilable environment had been crated the electorate is the ultimate sources of political mandate by people. This simple truth has forget by MS led Junta mismanagement .
The elections the ultimate vehicle for accountability for all races that basic policy of reconciliation between Sinhalese and Tamils & Muslims.
If MS regime do not respond to our constituencies’ expectations and aspirations people are voted out UNP-Wickransinghe’s Junta.
National electoral accountability Of this sort out coming election is too far-fetched a notion.
Last 160 days of MS, UNP-Wick & CBK Junta regime give an accountability of good governances at least in principally democratic practices across Sri lanka; within overall framework of democracy structure.
MS junta has no such institutional mechanism to justify their policies choices publicly and place them in the context of comparable choices made by others. So-called junta led by MS UNP & CBK a skeptic may wonder ,however, if such mechanism will led to widespread hypocrisy.
MR Ruling alliances led governances since 2005 all policies are free of experiments. And implement different solutions as long as they can explain to their peers of policy makers to IMF WB & ABD and other countries as well—why they have arrived at those solutions.
That was positive side of MR led government 9 years.
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TokyoRose / June 30, 2015
RW and UNP will sweep the polls with over 100 seats. They will even get Tamil seats including in the East and Amparai district with muslims. RW does not need to be held hostage by “always jump to the winning side to grab ministries, and perks” ethnic party leaders. MR will not beat MS. MR will be taught a lesson by our silent majority. He is going to get less than 2.5 million sinhala votes. TNA will win the North but if UNP contests too they will get a seat thanks to PR. SLMC will be relegated to their rightful position and not be in the capacity they are in now. Kandy and Colombo districts will come to the UNP in massive numbers and so will Nuwara Eliyaa with Indian tamil indentured migrant Sri lankans voting enmasse for UNP. DP will lose. JVP should get more than 10% tis time. I hope and pray JVP will win at least 15 seats. SL needs the JVP to keep arrogant RW and corrupt MR gangs in check. imagine how Sun Kindleader will behave if not for the JVP! Imagine Central Bank without JVP to expose them; imagine all the crooks and extortionists in the UNP without the JVP. JVP ekata jayaweywaa.
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R. Varathan / July 1, 2015
Dr. Keethaponcalan’s analysis failed to mention the likely modus operandi of the Rajapakses in the upcoming Aug 17 Gen-Elections. As always with brain-dead Sinhala pseudo-nationalists, it will be the surfeit and omnipresence of ethno-racial venom where, in most political meetings there will be the presence of Sinhala Buddhist priests – spewing racial rhetoric “in defence of Buddhism and the Sinhala nation”. Tamils, Tamilnadu and India will be chosen for attack – more in printed propaganda material (handbills, wall writings, newspapers, TV items) In the stages MR and company will boast it was the West (USA, Britain, EU) that financed their downfall because “they are for the long-term good of the Sinhala nation and for the protection of Sinhalese, the Maha Sangha and Sinhala Buddhism”.
It is interesting to note here the expression of another analyst
that “it is only a bullet” that separates Maitripala Sirisena and MR in the power struggle.
Muslims also will be targeted for attack in various ways. It is possible in this Election the Muslim community will see an open split in their ranks in the Eastern Province and the rest of the country.
Pakistani ISI will play a surreptitious role in the EP. Hakeem and friends will lose their hold on the EP which will produce its own line of leaders. Leading Muslim politicians in the South will contest both with UNP and SLFP-aligned political formations responding to the current security fears of the community spread nationally. The corrupt and self-centered Muslim leadership of the past three decades has now resulted in the community in the rest of the country engaging various real and imagined threats from the marginalised in the majority. Survival of Muslim in the hinterland depends on their taking sides with the 2 major Sinhala party formations in the Sinhala political landscape.
R. Varathan
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kali / July 1, 2015
Dr S.I. Keethaponcalan
Chair of the Conflict Resolution Department, Salisbury University, Maryland.
*** My dear brother you hold an important and prestigious position and in the context of our Struggle for Feedom Justice and Equality your message must rate as a potent one.
There must be no margin for error or doubt.
Mine is a Constructive Criticism and not out of spite and I remember criticising you on something the last time you posted an Article.
I dont criticise for the sake of critising and I always give Credit where it is due whether Tamil or Sinhalese.
We are travelling through Turbulent times and our Journey is Hazardous so next time please get it right and dont leave any margin for error.
We are in it together.
Wish you luck.
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