By Vishwamithra –

“We are all in the gutter, but some of us are looking at the stars.” ~ Oscar Wilde

September 21, 2024, a day of celebrity or one of infamy. The people and people alone shall decide. They will traverse to their respective polling booths; they will wear whatever the color they wish to; they would travel in their own vehicles or use public transport. They will have been utterly tired of all political rhetoric; such pontification and preaching has truly saturated the political marketplace. The landscape has had its winding turns and straight runs as far the eye could see. The voter, an ordinary rural farmer or a well-clad, overly fed urban executive or a street vendor whose residence is amongst the slums will all cast their votes.

They may have decided amongst themselves, within the family and among friends; in rare cases, the husband will not share his preference from his wife; the voting-aged sons and daughters might decide not to share their voting orientation with their parents. In one of the most significant, if not the most ever, the country is indeed on the brink of a most monumental challenges. Whether they are still apathetic to the vagaries of corrupt politics generated and practiced by more corrupt politicians, whether they would still live with mediocrity, the singular quality of the incompetent, at the end of polling on September 21, this year, the people will have cast their approval or disapproval of this party of the other.

What is at stake is much greater than the legacy of seventy six years; its much more elaborate than the indefensible legacies of a couple of elite family juntas. The people of more than four generations of our land have made unspeakable sacrifices, each generation wishing a better life for their succeeding one. But it has not borne any fruit. On the contrary, the resultant outcome after each election has produced hungrier children, more lethargic adults and in general terms, a less perceptive electorate.   

But each dark cloud has its proverbial silver lining. Instead of one, Sri Lanka perceived two. One recorded its arrival in the most frightening and unwished-for fashion, the economic collapse. The country’s coffers had run out of its dollars. The bottom of the barrel was manifestly barren. No foreign exchange for the importation of petrol, diesel, kerosene and cooking gas. Lines for those essential household items kept on lengthening; those who waited brought their food parcels for two to three days for that was how much time they assessed they would have to spend their ‘quality time’, waiting for a liter of patrol or a bottle of kerosene.

What was once visible only in the big cities and urban centers expanded to the outskirts of Colombo and the deep rural areas. Prices of food items consumed by an average family began their skyrocketing trajectory by the hour. The shelves of Supermarkets began their display with nothingness. The cheapest vegetables were not affordable for the average citizen. Three meals a day became two  and then crashed down to one a day.

While this unholy story was unfolding amidst the sociopolitical topography of the country, while the elderly population was meandering in their lethargic demeanor, the younger ones knew that they did not have to take it any longer. For them the waiting game was fast reaching a decisive end. Yet it was Hirunika Premachandra and two dozen of her friends who arrived at the gate of the private residence of the then President, Gotabaya Rajapaksa.

Unfortunately for the Rajapaksas and as a harbinger of better things for Mother Lanka, this little protest group developed exponentially into thousands in days and they found a more receptive ground at the Galle Face Green and it was named Gota Go Gama. The Aragalaya-22 was born. To telescope from the start to the finish of the Rajapaksa regime, within three months of massive people-led demonstrations, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the elected President of the country literally ran from office, eventually leaving the country. A temporary victory for the people of Sri Lanka.

That indeed was a very short celebrating time for the people.

What was most acute during the Aragalaya-22 was multifold. Allow me to spell them out, not in any order of significance or any other factor: representation of all segments of the citizenry, bringing together of all hitherto divided ethnic, religious, caste and creed groups, total absence of mainstream political party influence and remarkably noticeable presence of women amongst the participants etc.

While the economic collapse opened the eyes of the general voters in the country, the Aragalaya-22 provided, instead of tears, the much needed purpose and realization of the grim reality the country was facing. A clear demarcation line was drawn: the status quo has failed and a change was the need. The people at large could at last comprehend the division between, on the one hand, the protection of what has been going on and a dire need to change the course on the other. In the wake of the Aragalaya-22, the battle-lines were drawn between the two.

However, who is protecting the status quo and who is representing change was largely defined, yet the particular players on either side were identified only after the dust of the Aragalaya-22 settled and the acceptance of the players by those who led the movement was eventually reached and done. The ugly photos of Sajith Premadasa, leader of the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB) being driven away by the Aragalakaruwos coupled with Sarath Fonseka and Anura Kumara Dissanayake (AKD) being tolerated by them at the same time was eye-opening; nor did those incidents evade the inquisitive minds of those who watched the spectacle on national television or the social media.

When the dates for nominations and election was declared by the Election Commission, the first candidate to place his deposit was Ranil Wickremesinghe, the incumbent President. The man who was trying his best and hardest to put off the date of the election seems to be in a mighty hurry to let the country know that he was deeply interested and profoundly invested in placing a deposit to contest it. It’s ironical in one sense, but if one manages to read Ranil’s moves in the past, there is nothing strange nor ironical in Ranil’s move. In his deed of placing the deposit with the election Commission, Ranil keeps two constituencies in mind. Number two is the country and its voters and the first is the Rajapaksas and the rest of the government parties which he is supposed to be heading.

Ranil may be thinking that he could checkmate the Rajapaksas and the residue of the Pohottuwa that has been swimming close to him over the last one and half years. One must also be mindful of the emerging contexts when Ranil is weaving his tangled web of politricks. He may well be sending a very strong signal to Sajith Premadasa, lending Sajith a chance to negotiate with him for a coalition administration in which, in case Ranil becomes the winner, (in all likelihood Ranil does not stand a chance of snowball in hell), he offers Sajith the Premiership in a coalition government. Such bizarre planning and plotting  is not beyond Ranil’s extraordinary mind. In such a freakish circumstance, the status quo is clearly and sharply defined and identified. This new political dynamic offers the people a clear binary choice, no ifs or buts.

Status quo or change. The results could be a sweeping victory for either of the two, the status quo or change. Victory for the other will be dreaded by the loser. Would AKD and the NPP be happy with such a sociopolitical dynamic? Or on the other hand, it might well be a jumble of a contest in which more than three contestants running, representing more than three mainstream parties for the same prize.

Whichever the case may be, is AKD ready and equipped to handle such a challenging electoral scenario. A party that has not won a single election to date, a party that was proscribed more than once, a left wing party that was once branded as one representing violence and now outdated Marxian economic theories is now coming before the same people but a different generation and asking for their vote. The transformation seems palpable; it seems whole and the party’s spread among the men and women in the remotest hamlets and the busiest cities and thoroughfares seems complete and absolute.

Whether it’s a multiple choice or a binary one, the people will have less than two and half months to decide one of the most defining moments in their collective life. If there are more than two candidates, if Dhammika Perera from the Pohottuwa and Dilith Jayaweera representing his own party, are just details in the mix. Yet the real battle will be between Sajith Premadasa and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, representing the Status Quo and Change respectively, binary or multiple.

It should not be a hard choice for the voter. Yet what matters most, as in all elections is, the campaign and how each party would handle its campaign, its staff and its message and messaging. When those conditions are taken into count, NPP and AKD seem to be ahead. Yet the voter could be a strange creature. A clever campaign manager will never indulge in speculation and predictions. Such meaningless pastimes are for those armchair pundits who, in this context, do not matter in the least. For those who contest, paths are many but the goal is one.

*The writer can be contacted at vishwamithra1984@gmail.com