20 May, 2019

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Postwar Sri Lanka: Between Expectation And Fulfilment

By Dayan Jayatilleka –

Dr Dayan Jayatilleka

[Pre-AGM address to the Citizens Movement for Good Governance-CIMOGG]

Let me venture a banal observation. Most of us in this room -and most people we know- would have been positively disposed about the decisive termination of the war in May 2009. Now the term “positively disposed” covers a continuum from ‘relieved’ to ‘glad’ to ‘happy’. But I also think that most of us in this room and most of the people we know have a sense of disquiet about the present. If we take our minds back to May 2009, I dare say that none of us really expected to be here in this mood 4 years down the road. That is not what we thought things would be like. That’s not what we thought we would feel 4 years later. So there has been an important gap between expectation and fulfillment.

This gap can be super-imposed on yet another gap, that between promise and fulfillment. Sri Lanka’s story or the story of Ceylon is probably that story; the story of the gap between our promise as a country, as a society and the actual outcomes, the actual performance.

Today, we are at a particular point of crisis. I certainly do not say that this is the worst crisis we have faced because we have faced far worse situations. Not only did we have three decades of war, at least two of which were punctuated by suicide terrorism every month, perhaps even every week, but we also had a situation in the late ‘80s where we faced triple challenges. We had the Southern insurrection, a Northern insurrection and an external military presence on our soil all at the same time, during the period ‘87-‘90. That is one of the worst situations that any society or State could be in.

So where we are now is not anywhere as bad as where we have been. But in a different sense and in a different dimension it is somewhat more disturbing. I would call this the human resource dimension. However bad things were in the ‘80s or the ‘90s, we could always count on human resources of a certain quality. We could think of certain entities or personalities who could turn things around. The system was not as depleted of quality human resources as it is now.

The human resources crisis is perhaps best dramatized by the phenomenon of the brain drain which has accelerated in the post-war period. Now that is an anomaly. The brain drain is something we have been discussing for decades, but we now have a situation where young people don’t even wait to finish their first degree. If they can leave during their first degree they’ll leave. So the brain drain is cutting deeper. Young professionals look for the first opportunity to get to the exit ramps. This is exactly the opposite of what any post-war society should look like; especially one in which the legitimate State won. We have contrary examples in Angola, in Ethiopia, even in Rwanda where the degree of recovery and development has been much faster. Here in Sri Lanka, not only are young people leaving and fewer coming back but the policy of the system seems to be at best ambivalent, at worse a conscious disincentive to such return. Take the issue of dual citizenship.

How prudent is it to force young people of Sri Lankan origin to actually have to choose between being citizens of the United States, Canada, or Australia – of any First World country–and citizens of Sri Lanka. Why do we wish them to make this choice? One may of course speculate about certain considerations which are said to be of a security nature but it really doesn’t make sense to me when you weigh the pluses and the minuses, because if we were to adopt a rational and open minded policy about dual citizenship, what we would immediately accomplish were we to fast-track dual citizenship or at least have maintained the old policy, is to make Sri Lanka share-holders in many societies and states of the world. If you give dual citizenship fairly freely then you are picking up shares in most of the Western societies from which the anti-Sri Lankan lobbying operate. When you fail to do so, you are myopically depriving yourself of a possible strategic advantage.

We are also placing ourselves in a social situation which is little short of tragic because those of you who have children and grandchildren would love to have them come back or come back more often. But if the doors are shut, if the attitude is one of a lack of welcome then it is we who will be the losers. Quite a few of us have children, grandchildren, nephews and nieces out there who may want to come back and work, who want to spend time here and be citizens of Sri Lanka as well. It is the Sri Lankan state which seems to be saying ‘no’ or ‘may be not’.

This goes in a completely opposite direction of the two miracles of the contemporary world: India and China, countries with very different systems but similar attitudes and policies in certain important respects. Both countries have over billion people. One would have thought that they would say ‘look we can afford not to have people coming back because we have such a large population with a large educated strata’. But you know that the overseas Chinese and the non resident Indians have been crucial players in catalyzing the economic revolutions of China and India. We are doing just the opposite!

What this tells me is that the main reason for the gap between promise and fulfillment has been in the realm of mentalities. There is something about the mentality of those who are making the decisions that reflects itself in the policy process, and those policies have blocked the transition from a successfully won war to a sustainable peace.

There was something we could always count on and that we do not have today. That is the balancing effect of an opposition. Whichever party we belonged to or didn’t, we could always count on the fact that the opposition in Parliament, at the elections, would act as a pressure group, as a competitor and therefore help correct the course of the country. Now we can’t count on that anymore. Why is this? A war changes history in a way that few things do. It is a landmark event, whichever society you are talking about or whichever time of history.

Wars define positions. Sri Lanka went through this massive experience of war. You don’t live down the position you took during the war. If you have been on the wrong side of the war, you really cannot be on the right side of an election. If the successful wartime leader also has personal appeal while his opponent has none, then no economic crisis is going to be able to change that sufficiently. Neither the personal popularity nor the ‘trust gap’ among the majority (and these merge and superimpose) can be bridged even with a spoiler third candidate.

So what we have today, for the first time in our lifetime, is a political system which is no longer competitive. It is uncompetitive not primarily because the President is coercively suppressing the main opposition (I do not see any members of the United National Party actually locked up), but simply because the opposition is in implosive collapse. If that is to change, the main democratic opposition has to dissociate itself from that particular period in its history, just as the Sri Lanka Freedom Party had to dissociate itself from the memories of economic hardships of ’70-’77 and substitute for Madam Sirimavo Bandaranaike, Chandrika Bandaranaike Kumaratunga who had shifted the party’s stance on the economy to one of embracing the open economy. So long as the SLFP was seen as the party that might take us back to the dark era of shortages, there was no way it was going to win. It is even more so in a matter which is more emotive, such as the recently concluded Long War.

The government will always prefer a discredited and weak opposition. But society can make another choice. There are no coercive penalties for trying to change democratically the leadership of an opposition party and make it more competitive. I argue that the democratic deficit is not so much a question of a bad constitution but a political marketplace which is no longer competitive. Unless that is changed, we will not be able to restore something that is fundamental to any society; an equilibrium. Right now there is no equilibrium.

If one factored in that though the Sinhalese are 75%, there are other communities on this island then we would realize that we all have to live together, we have to cohabit– which requires mutual respect and accommodation. If one factored in that just across the water, we have Tamil Nadu with 70 million people of Tamil origin, that Tamil Nadu is no longer merely a kingdom as it was in ancient times but is part of the big power India, and that India’s main political formations will be bidding for Tamil Nadu’s support to form a stable government next year—a government in which would almost certainly be a coalition with regional parties–we would be more aware of the strategic vulnerabilities of this island and less cavalier in the kind of suggestions that I find in daily newspapers, emanating sometimes from the highest levels of officialdom.

We seem to have forgotten the bitter lessons of the past. We have forgotten what happened before the intrusive airdrop of 1987. Everybody knows about the airdrop but we forget what happened 24 hours before and I think it is almost paradigmatic. Because 24 hours before we were informed that there were supplies which Indian boats, flying the Red Cross flag wished to deliver to the suffering citizens of the North of Sri Lanka. Now, we had two options there. One was to receive those supplies and distribute them jointly. This was one thing we could have done but we did not do that. Instead, with a rather loud insistence on absolute national sovereignty and under the direct orders of the then Minister of National Security which was in direct contact with our Navy boats, we turned back the Indian boats with the Red Cross flag. For a few hours we were on Cloud 9, or in 7th heaven as they say. What happened next was that the President of Sri Lanka was quite literally woken from his slumber, and informed, politely but pointedly, that the same supplies would be delivered by Indian Air Force transport planes, which would be accompanied by Mirage 2000 interceptors and that any action against the transport plane would responded to by force.

In politics, especially in ethnic politics with an external dimension, you can do something like turning back the Indian boats in ’87 but you must also be able to understand that unilateral action has consequences— and we have to grasp the realities of the balance of power.

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Latest comments

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    This chap has no moral dimensions whatsoever. He articulates Niccole Machiavelli ideas of political governance through and through.

    Dr. N. Satchi UK

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      He is a political analyst /scientist, why not he is allowed to do so ? Personal grudge ?

      After all in a most critical juncture of the country today.

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        His preachings are only ideological and those are not practicle.

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        Dear Mr. Samson,

        I do not know him to have a personal grudge nor did I want to comment on the 13th. amendment. The general thrust is what need to be done is because of geopolitical compulsions. That was what I meant. Please read by G. H. Peiris The Island 22nd. May 2013 midweek review.

        Dr. N. Satchi UK

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      Dr.satchi,you got it all mixed up.The medamulana machiavelli is going strong.First he finished the LTTE by promising 13+ to india.Finally after India kept on asking what the + was,he said that is the senate,which by the way has nothing to do with the 13th amendment.So time flew by while india was waiting with bated breath for the +,which they thought will vindicate to the world that they did the correct thing by giving the 13th amendment as a great deed of wisdom to srilanka.

      Now medamulana machiavelli is creating an environment with his mouthpiece golayas,modawansa and champika,the thomson and thomson racist twins of srilanka,to give 13 minus.A defanged 13th amendment(like the defanged fonseka who is unable to run for the presidency anymore without political rights),without land and police powers.Therefore land can be continued to be appropriated and people can be arrested at will in the north and east by the government of medemulana machiavelli.So you are barking up the wrong tree going after DR.Dayan,learn how to govern from medamulana machiavelli.

      Just in case India has any ideas of getting tough due to a 13 minus,medemulana machiavelli went for 5 days of royal treatment in china,so that India will get the message not to try again that 1987 parrippu drop stunt,now that he has a bodyguard who signed many agreements on defence with him during his stay there.He even went to Japan to show the chinese what will happen if they let him down.

      So DR.satchi,you guys from the UK,learn from medamulama machiavelli who after successfully hosting the commonwealth summit which will give him legitimacy with the rest of the world(after all how can a war criminal, as the tamils diaspora call him,be allowed to host an prestigious event like that,he even gave orders to UK for rolls royce engines for planes, which probably will get cancelled anyway).

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        So you say by going to china, china will come to war in the event of India invades SL? Just a reminder: In 1999 far superior nuclear possesed Pakistan( comparing to SL) rushed to China and china showed backside and Pakistan ran empty handed. If that can happen to their all-weather ally pakistan what will happen to Srilanka?

        Second, any such war is not possible if one simply analyses, no two nuclear armed states never went to full fledged war, all the time they involve only proxy cold wars; These are economic wars than war in battlefields. So if India invades srilanka, the other china will simply watch or utmost help in arming to fight against. Thats all…

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          manisekeran,china will attack from arunachal pradesh and assam which it claims.India will not have the moral right to denounce that on the world stage because it has invaded a small neighbour itself.Chinese forces will keep advancing until India withdraws from srilanka.Unlike in 1962,china will not give back any territory it has taken from India.China will not use any planes or artillery or heavy weapons unless India does it first.They have plenty of troops in that region to take Assam and arunachal Pradesh.Please go to china and see how the kids are learning that those are part of china,unfairly given to India when the macmahon line was drawn up by the british to demarcate India.China considers these as Tibetan territories at one time and only wants an excuse now to attack and annex them.

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            If India is such easy walk over do you think still china will be leaving Arunachal pradesh and Assam. My point was on the basis that for just helping Srilanka it wont come to full fledged war as many of you claim. May be war option is possible only when they clash for their own interest. It is very complex geo-politics and it is not such easy claim.

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              I mentioned attack by china because you mentioned,quote”So you say by going to china, china will come to war in the event of India invades SL?”.

              So if india invades srilanka as you mentioned only,china will attack India from the eastern side.It won’t come to defend srilanka,because its navy is not strong enough to counter the US aircraft carriers which will sink them.So it will be mistake by India to be waiting for china to come to defend srilanka, India will be attacked instead.

              You are quite right that war will be more economic type of warfare nowadays than actual military war.I only mentioned these possibilities because you said that India could invade Srilanka.

              It is like a game of chess where you got to think of all possible counter moves when you make your moves.

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              shankar

              There is no treaty obligation for China to defend Sri Lanka.

              Why would China defend Sri Lanka and in the process it will destroy what it had achieved since its red revolution.

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              veddha,when mahinda recently went to china he signed defence agreements with them.I did not say that china will directly defend srilanka.The indian ocean is very far away and its navy is not powerful enough to dominate it at the moment.So it will attack India from the eastern Assam side until it withdraws from srilanka.It can kill two birds with one stone,take assam which is full of oil and which it has claimed for the last 50 years as chinese territory, unfairly ceded to India by the British raj without consultations with china or tibet,and also give a clear message to India to keep hands off Srilanka which is now a vassal state of China.It will be the second time that india will have to withdraw its troops with egg on its face if it indeed foolishly decided to invade srilanka.I don’t think manmohan and sonia are fools like rajiv and will not do it,but anything can happen if the BJP comes to power because we don’t know yet the type of people they are,whether foolish or wise.

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              Shankar,

              Have you got any knowledge about China’s own problem. They need plenty to defend with Japan in east china sea, Taiwan ( which it claims its own land) and India, That will be bigger geopolitical worry fo china than this silly srilanka issue, you need to know recent strengthening between India and Japan sent shivers down to throat of chinese. Not actually as you claimed. Also the claim that they can invade easily from eastern borders is myth as India concentrated recently more troop in eastern border than china. thats why new premier put down all differences aside and work with India. you have any clue what is trade relationship between these two countries? Sorry friend, it is far wothier for china than Srilankan friendship.

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              manisekeran,china is not bothered at all about japans military might,because it hasn’t any military worth talking about,thanks to the US not allowing it to rearm itself after world war 2.It is a mistake because it should have been allowed to develop a formidable military force to counter china one day.

              As for your calling Srilanka silly issue,its strategic location in the center of the shipping route through which china receives most of its oil,make it a very valuable real estate for china if it can have a military base there.That is its ultimate objective.Srilanka has not been going behind china,it is the other way about with china wooing srilanka like a bridal suitor and srilanka also has responded favourably after its nasty experience with that immature fool Rajiv Ghandhi.Srilanka feels now it needs a bodyguard just like taiwan needs the US.

              You are right that economic considerations with india is important to china,but it will not just take a back seat and watch if India does invade srilanka.I feel we are wasting time here with an hypothetical scenario,because i have strong doubts that india will ever invade Srilanka.Young and immature people like rajiv will not become primeminister again,and even if rahul one day becomes primeminister Sonia will be the real power and she is not a foolish and reckless woman.

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              ” will not just take a back seat and watch if India does invade srilanka” – this is wishful thinking indeed, so let us stop as i agree your suggestion that as hypothetical, no use to discuss unless such situation arises.

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            Shankar, you are wrong. It will never happen, china never going to invade India. If india decides invade or help tamils, china never going to oppose it…..

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              Jmuthu your assumptions are based on wishful thinking and not cold hard facts.Making forecasts based on what you will like to happen and not based on what can really happen is a big mistake that people make when they predict events.VP also made predictions such as the international community will not allow a massacre etc based on his wishful thinking.When you say that china will not make a limited foray into Assam if India invades srilanka,you are making that assumtion based on your emotional attachment to the tamils and not giving hard evidence as to why china will not support srilanka to the maximum possible.You can see everyone thought that russia and china will dump Assad in syria just like ghaddafi,but that has not happened.Better to always use worst case scenarios than to rely on assumptions based on what you would like to happen,which is a human weakness as we all are emotional beings.

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        Shanker,

        I am commenting on your reference to ‘ Medamulana Machiavelli’. I have also used the Machiavelli analogy, with reference to MR. Coming to think of it a little deeper, I think we are giving him credit for a political sophistry he singularly lacks. His is a very gross bulldozer-like approach to everything. It was successful in the war effort, the IDP care issues and the infra-structure projects he has undertaken. However, where he has taken the bulldozer approach to have his way through constitutional amendments and misuse of his powers as the Executive President, he has failed the country miserably, exposed himself not as a person he was believed to be by many. He is leaving a legacy for which he will be cursed for generations to come. Even the stupidest in the country can read him like a map now! His every move is so obvious!!

        On the political front his approach is gross, patently stupid and lacks any sophistry. It is a wreckers approach. He is blind to the values of civilization and their role in holding human society together. His manipulations lack class and intellectual sophistry. It may be of a ‘Medamulana-type’, but not definitely of Machiavelli’s intellectual sophistry.

        RW has Machiavelli’s class and used it to get VP entangled in the ‘Peace trap’, but paid the price (losing the 2005 presidential election) because of VP’s ‘VVT-type’ stupid and politically-short sighted revenge.

        Dr.Rajasingham Narendran

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          Dr.narendran,those who underestimated mahinda including VP have always paid the penalty.He thrives on the fact that others underestimated him.He waited patiently for 40 years to become the president,and chandrika thought anytime she wanted she could sideline him and appoint her sucessor.His greatest strengh is that others think he is a country bumpkin and can easily deal with him.

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          Rajasingham,

          Here is what you wrote, not even a month ago: “his undefined vision envisaged that economic development will bring about sufficient prosperity in the Tamil areas.”

          Now, finally, after-the fact, you seem to have realized “Even the stupidest in the country can read him like a map now! His every move is so obvious!!.”

          Would you count yourself among the “last of the stupidest” to wake up to this reality?!

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            Kumar R,

            Read what you quote carefully. I have said, ” His undefined vision—“. Gotabhaya Rajapakse confirms this line of thinking in his speech reported in CT today. Development is very much needed in the north and east , and this is an urgent priority. However, it cannot be the ultimate vision. I was correct and his vision correct. Where he failed was that in time political solutions had to be found. He failed to articulate this vision and give it effect.

            Dr.RN

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              Rajasingam,

              Here is the operative phrase from you “…exposed himself not as a person he was believed to be by many.”

              So, you believed he had a vision, but now you concede he was not believable, or trust worthy. He was not what many (the likes of you) thought he was. How would you then know that what he declared as vision was not mere deception? Most of us knew, but you didn’t – isn’t that the case.

              You surmised that finally, now, “even the stupidest can read him like a map.” Isn’t that what you said? That is my point, and given that it took so long for you to realize he is not to be believed, I wondered at which end of the spectrum between smart and stupid do you feel you stand.

              Please read your own writings more carefully.

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    It seems we are going back to the pre 1978 situation with additional military reinforcements in the North and overtly xenophobic inclinations in the south. Harassment of the Tamil population by annexing their land for military use and the military administration of day to day life are also additional features. Attacks on the media and dissenters are a common feature. Perpetrators are allowed to go free.

    There seems to be reluctance on the part of the govt to hold elections or devolve any power to the Tamils. TNA who were voted into power through elections are labelled as terrorists. Extrermist parties in the South seem to have more say in their matters than the people of the North themselves. It remains to be seen where all this will lead. A lot depends on the Indian Govt. Most probably a clear policy will unfold after the Indian Elections which are due and a new Govt.

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    Dayan has misconceive and dilettante study of ” reality of balance of power” and Sri Lanka has not engage or not that reanimate super-power rival between past-clod war era: the “unilateral action has consequences” against any emerging Super-power in region influance or its world political power; but that by role of action of SL- politics has not challenge by ruling party has no impact of governance in emerging power rival sphere any land, sea or air.
    Ongoing balance of power having two fold,one politics-economy two social and cultural factors.As long as China not seek hegemony,new balance power in different nature from the in past cold war ERA.
    Old cold war epoch will never come into being or play part role of regenerate in world politics again; New Phenomena is different will be exist in reality of power rivals.
    Is Dayan as “Political Scientist” knowledge of ongoing trend ‘balance of power’ has NOT fully grasp ,while look at angle OGRE person.
    As sovereigity nation (SL)having every right protected by her territorial intergerity and Repel any unmandate 13A by foreing power; and by abolished force agreement by regional power NOT an UNILATERAL ACT BY the people of mandate by our nation NOT again India.
    Needless to say it is mean by that exercise legal and imperious mandate power of people of Sri Lanka is right of sovereigity nation and its democracy.That symptom is not anti-democratic or ‘ faced far worse situation’ in by Sri Lanka people.Its protected “sustainable Peace” won by after end of Tamil terrorism in 2009 May.
    There is another angle of last four years,a President who won a sweeping political mandate,propelled by an energized PEACE LOVING PEOPLE movement and with control Parliament by two-third majority.About as much power as any President could ever hope to muster as IN PEACETIME.
    We basically have past bankrupt policies in war tone politics of bankrupting country since 1980’s had been come to END.
    The very simple fact is Sustainable peace need basic background for Sustainable of ECONOMY POLITICAL ORDER AND SOCIAL PROGRESS.
    Dayan agree or not we as nation ‘we are doing just the opposite’ of is totally myth of your political school of teaching.
    We are eagerly waiting for end politics of Ethnic,enclave by Tamil Nadu and diaspora outfits, but it has roots in Tamils not only SL Tamils but Tamil Racism in other part of world.The majority community Ethnic politics are minor versus take whole stock into account.It need time and space in our country nation and people looking forward impact of our future.

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      D.Nimal:
      Your work is a model of good clear writing and argumentcompared to DJ’s!!.Now all the issues are clear to me.Thanks

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    Those of us who didn’t have our heads down the King’s posterior in 2009 and who may have heard of the Mugabe’s and Hitler’s of this world may have thought this is exactly how things will turn up.The conquering hero ending up as the bane of the country..hmm never happened before??? At least it is good to see that the great political analyst has begun to see some light.

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    That CIMOGG has this man as a keynote speaker at its AGM is nothing short of an absolute disgrace!
    Dayan Jayatilleke is the preeminent political opportunist of this country and has done immeasurable damage to the very concepts that CIMOGG allegedly stands and what it purports to be its ethical and moral standards.
    The leadership of CIMOGG has certainly lost all the respect that many of us had for it in the past with this one act.

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    Your comments on the dual-citizenship being placed on-hold is most
    welcome. The sudden ad-hoc action following MRs debacle at Oxford last
    was what brought about this idea, at a cost to Sri Lanka.

    India has the largest population scattered around the world and thereby
    holds first place for “Inward Remittances”, in the relevant Index.

    Our politicians have looked at this issue with a vengeance as Tamils
    are involved. It is the Tamils and their progeny that will make up the
    future tourists, who have to be Sir-ed by the Sinhala Village lads in
    Hotels,much unwillingly?

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    MR promised 13+ to India but did not say what was in the “+”. Now everyone know the “+” was 19. India cannot get mad at SL for it being stupid.
    Afterall MR is delivering what he promised 13 + 19. :)

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    I am surprised that Dr Jayatillake had such high expectations that the end of the war in May 2009 would usher in a new era of peace and prosperity. There were many people who were concerned that the military triumph would instead bring about a tipping point for the worse in at least two of the major underlying driving forces which are shaping Sri Lanka’s society and politics.
    The first of these is Sinhala Buddhist ethno-nationalism, which has been evolving over the last 150 years or so, was a major determinant of the country’s sociopolitical evolution since independance and since the end of the interethnic war it has received a turbo boost to toxic levels. The demise of Sri Lankan Tamil ethno-nationalism, brought about by the catastrophic train crash that was the LTTE’s separatist war, has left Sinhala Buddhist ethno-nationalism as the only nationalism in town, and I dare say that it is now one of the most intensely felt and politically potent ethno-nationalisms anywhere in the world. At the end of the war, there was a slim possibility that MR, with seemingly immense political capital, would be able to douse the nationalist fire and there were calls from many of our friends internationally who implied that he should try to do that. But it would be a leader of rare vision and courage who would try to reshape such an intensely felt zeitgeist among the predominant ethnic group, and alas, MR is not such a one.
    The second inimical sociopolitical trend has been gathering strength in fits and sarts over the last four decades or so, and it too has passed a tipping point after the end of the war. It is the tendency for an autocratic accumulation of power, with concomittant erosion of all other traditional distributed repositories of power. This post war trajectory too should not surprise any one, especially a political scientist of Dr Jayatillake’s calibre.
    Would Sri Lanka be able to break free of these by now historical forces, short of a train crash of mulliyawaikal proportions? This is what we should be worrying about and writing about. But then again, would the outpourings of the chatterati ever have any impact on the march of seemingly implaccable historical forces?

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    [I am surprised that Dr Jayatillake had such high expectations that the end of the war in May 2009 would usher in a new era of peace and prosperity.]
    Does’nt that say how capable he is as a political analyst. :)

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    What will happen if no such expectation by Tamils is granted?

    Another 89,000 Tamil Mahaveer war widows. So who wins in such a case and who will lose, again?

    It is better for Tamils to give up all expectations than suffer with false expectations in SL. Tamil Nadu on the other hand is the land where Tamil aspirations come true. Just 40 km from Jaffna.

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      Muliyawaikkal

      “Tamil Nadu on the other hand is the land where Tamil aspirations come true. Just 40 km from Jaffna.”

      Therefore the Tamils of Sri Lanka and their brethren the Sinhala/Buddhits, both genetically related to Tamilnadu Tamils must catch the next Kallathoni and head back to their homeland.

      If Sinhala/Buddhists can’t stand Jayalalitha they should be allowed to settle down in Bihar, their second homeland.

      Muliyawaikkal

      How soon can you vacate?

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    Dear Dr. Dyana,

    I am 100% with you on the reading on current Geo-political situation in Sri Lanka.
    I am sure the Dual citizenship issue will be resolved amicably otherwise the Rajapaksha siblings will also loose the so called duality in citizenship with US etc.
    So that is minor.
    Let us focus on the BIG picture, shall we?
    When Dixit, DICTAT was on JR had the tactfullness of showing the helplessnes in front of the Nation with Indian invasion.Though JR foresaw the Consequences of the naiive Rajiv-Foreign policy backfire!.
    Dixit though he wrote his memoir died as a bitter man, I suppose.
    Then as history repeasts all invaders have to leave sooner or later, so did India.
    the present Geopolitical situation is no different except the Apex of power in Sri Lanka is in the hands of Folks of defferent blood and upbringing.We do have leadership with ‘Julampitiye Amare’ ilk.they associate with such, they promote and solicit such.
    Mervin Silva, DIG Vaas Gunawardhana. Sajin Vaas Gunawardhana etc being the folks who flock together shows the leaders are of same feather.
    They lack vision. indepth thinking and analysis.
    They lack the cohesive analytical aproach but thinks in small world!
    My family, my kith and kin their well being, how to win the next possible election( be it provincial, regional, general or Presidential) is their depth of thinking.
    How to hoodwink the genral public with temple visiting. Sri Mahabodhi kissing( couple of times a month) and Poya day sermon at Araliyagaha mandiraya seems to be the order of the day.
    wasn’t it the same with R. Premadasa.?
    With Nawaloka doing all the contracts from building roads, offices and turfing grass on pavements etc while premadasa was merrily on his cocoos nest with temple worshjipping and Hema playing Netball and HE playing football and junos being bumped off etc.

    but did that last that long?
    The answer emphatically NO! alabeit Dr. DJ was a Court jester for him though!.

    Getting back to current power play in the region, India will not antagonize China and Vice versa, but they both will be interested in commecial exploitation of captive market of 20 odd million people and resources of this country.
    Though Rajapakshas are currently pawning the country to China Excim bank mainly and running with the pot with mortgaged money this run will last , not too long.
    Let us focus on the aftermath of this episode of vulagarity currently taking place postwar in the name of ‘Miracle/Wonder of Asia’.
    In a sense it has delivered WONDER(ing) in the world like Airports with no planes and Harbours with no ships, the General public will not make a big deal out of it as long as Rupavahini and ITN preaches the massive development saga taking place in Sri Lanka.
    Just as North Koreans worship the Kim il Sung Dynasty.
    Here, soon people will realize they are struggling to keep their nose above water with all the costs staggering against fixed income.!!!

    Then the game will be over for the current set of vultures.

    So Dear Dr. pls do us a favour, take the lead to guide, formulate/emulate and shape the post Rajapaksha era that shall come sooner than later.

    or better pls work on making it happening.
    enough this deep analytical and theoritical debates on 13+/13- or No 13A at all.

    Get busy and work on the next leadership the leadership we want and we should have in place, Identify them rally behind them.

    I am sure the political baggage from the past should be burried, its about time and let us do the needful.

    Pls do not worry about india invading us or whether China will come to save us.

    let us get the house in order FIRST>!!

    That is what we want to hear.

    aj

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    Not sure about mainland Chinese going back unless they get a posting with an International ,paying Western wages.

    Hong Kong, Singapore and Malaysia are different.

    Their economies have developed to a stage that the Private Sector there can match or even better the Western Wages.

    Bu the most important inducement is job satisfaction,

    Lot of migrant children who are Uni educated can’t get jobs in their adopted lands to suit their qalifications.

    That is the main reason they go back.

    Never heard of Indians going back.

    Srilanka if allowed to continue in the manner in which the Economy is growing and attracting Foreign investments, it won’t be long before ,our young graduates in the West will think of doing something meaningful, rather than just earning a few Dollars or pehaps should I say Pounds or Kroners.

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    DJ has used the opportunity to advance his topic that India will invade Sri Lanka if 13A is amended. I believe CIMOGG must be shivering in their boots. India which cannot manage the Maoist militancy in many of the States is not so foolish to get involved in a military adventure which is likely to involve China and Pakistan. India would not want to be labelled imperialist bully.

    Regarding DJ’s following statement:

    “We have contrary examples in Angola, in Ethiopia, even in Rwanda where the degree of recovery and development has been much faster. Here in Sri Lanka, not only are young people leaving and fewer coming back but the policy of the system seems to be at best ambivalent, at worse a conscious disincentive to such return”

    His statement of contrary examples of rapid recovery is debatable.
    This is a quotation from an article titled
    Resurrection after Civil War and Genocide: Growth, Poverty and Inequality in Post-conflict Rwanda from a research paper of the Institute of Development Policy and Management, University of Antwerp, Belgium.published in the
    THE EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH

    “The effect of conflict on war-vulnerable sectors (construction, manufacturing, commerce, transport, tourism, communication) has been pervasive in both relative and absolute terms. Peace did not lead to a complete reversal of these compositional changes. One could speak of a short war overhang effect during the first turbulent years after the peace settlement. From 1998 onwards though, the compositional change in GDP starts to reverse, but only very gradually, as even eight years after war the dependence upon subsistence agriculture (war-invulnerable) continues to be more pronounced than earlier on.

    Further, post- war economic growth is largely aid dependent; donors’ commitments only account for the short term and might dry up with time. Far more alarming are the economy’s structural limitations, a combination of overpopulation, resource scarcity and a limited potential for economic diversification away from subsistence agriculture.

    This is a quotation from The Economist Sep 15 2005 on recovery in Angola.

    “Three years after the end of its civil war, Africa’s second-largest oil producer is still licking its wounds
    The end of fighting has brought some improvement and great hope. But in spite of the country’s vast oil and diamond riches, prosperity for most Angolans is still a distant dream.

    Sri Lankan recovery is not dependent on oil money or foreign aid but has done reasonably well.
    His reason on young people leaving the country is one sided.There are two main streams of leaving the country. Firstly there are the opportunistic economic refugees, secondly young people leaving on higher studies.
    Restrictive education policy is the reason for young people leave the country for higher education.

    Overall DJ’s presentation was not appropriated for CIMOGG. It should have been on how to promote good governance which is the reason for its existence.

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      Please srilankan stop using your half knowledge like this;
      “India which cannot manage the Maoist militancy in many of the States “. what to say of these people who put wrong claim and underestimate others.

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    It is naive to think that China will intervene if India takes any kind of action against SL. Lets not forget India has the backing of US and China
    will not venture out on a course that is inimical to them.MR has come back from China thinking that they will support SL. This is day dreaming.

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