1 December, 2020

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Presidential Election 2015: Projection Of Probable Results

By Siri Gamage

Dr. Siri Gamage

Dr. Siri Gamage

Further to the initial forecast I made in my previous article (Colombo Telegraph, 2nd January 2015), in this article I make several projections about the possible result in the forthcoming presidential election based on previous election results. I primarily use percentages from the 2010 Presidential election result, 2005 Presidential election result and the 2014 Uva Provincial Council result, in particular the result of the Badulla district, for this purpose.

As can be seen from the Table 1, MR received more than 50 percent of votes in all provinces except in the Northern province in 2010 elections. In the 2005 Presidential elections, he received more than 50 percent in 11 districts (see Column I, Table 2).

Given the fact that 2010 Presidential election marks the pinnacle of his popularity and all other factors that has emerged since negatively impacting on his ability to command a similar result in the current election including the fact that he changed the constitution to seek a third term, it is not logical to assume that he will increase his vote percentage in the 2015 election from what he received in 2010. Instead, what we can expect is a decline in the percentage of votes countrywide for MR. In some provinces and districts within them he may still perform well above 50% mark and in others he will perform well below 50%.

The key question then is how much decline in his vote percentages is required for him to fall below 50%?   If we use 2010 figures, several projections can be made. We could calculate the change/decline in votes in percentage terms when we apply specific numbers such as 3%, 6%, 9% or 12%.

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Looking at these percentages of results obtained from the Department of Elections web site and the projections, even if MR obtains 12% less votes in the forthcoming election, he would still get 50.34% of the total votes. If he gets 9% less vote percentages this time, he could still perform at 51.96% of the total votes polled. Under a 12% vote decline scenario, he would perform below 50% only in the Eastern and Northern provinces.   Even a 15% decline in the votes for MR will make him vulnerable only in three provinces, i.e. Central, Eastern, and Northern. Thus, if we use 2010 election results as the basis of projections, it is highly biased toward the incumbent as it represents a high water mark in the electoral cycle with unique characteristics that brought him success. Therefore, we need to employ a different method for projecting the result of current election.

On the surface, above scenarios are quite challenging for the common candidate of the opposition parties. However, political dynamics have changed since the 2010 Presidential elections and certainly after the declaration of the new election in 2015. A strong opposition coalition has rallied around clear goals including those that relate to constitutional, electoral, and governance changes within the first 100 days. Media reports indicate that there is a real contest this time unless the voting is not disturbed by violence and other events during the remaining few critical days.

Projection II

Some argue that 2005 Presidential election result is a better base one can use to predict the results of the forthcoming election rather than the 2010 result due to the reasons explained earlier. For this reason, the percentage votes obtained by MR in the 2005 Presidential election together with several scenarios of decline or gain in votes are presented in Table 2. Instead of Provincial figures, I am using District figures for 22 districts – as the former is not available in the Elections Department website.

Table 2 – Percentages of Votes Obtained by Mahinda Rajapaksa in the 2005 Presidential Elections together with Several Scenarios

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Note: MR won the 2005 Presidential election with a total vote of 50.29%. However, in the above table when district vote percentages are tallied we get a figure somewhat less than this, ie. 46.39%. The method I used was to add district level percentages and divide by the number of districts to get the average.

Column IV: Actual votes in the districts of Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa and N’Eliya may be higher in the 2015 election, though I am using projected percent increase here uniformly across all districts.

The question to ask here is whether MR will get less than what he polled in the 2005 Presidential election? Normally, when a candidate wants to contest a national election for a third term, it is logical to assume a decline in votes –unless there are factors contributing to the popularity of the candidate since the previous election. In the case of MR this is a contestable question. There are factors contributing to his popularity. On the other hand, there are factors contributing to his unpopularity also. On balance, the latter weighs heavily on him this time.

If he polls 3-5% less than what he polled in the 2005 Presidential election this time, he will fall well below 50% mark that is required (see Column IV, Table 2). On the other hand, if he polls 3-6% more compared to what he received in 2005, he will move well above the 50% mark.

Looking at Column IV in Table 2, vulnerable districts for him thus include Colombo, Kandy, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, Puttalam, Badulla and Kegalle. MR’s strength lies in districts such as Gampaha, Kalutara, Galle, Matara, Hambantota, Anuradhapura, Monaragala, and Ratnapura. However, due to recent defections from the SLFP and the ruling coalition, districts such as Kalutara and Anuradhapura have become vulnerable for him.

On the otherhand, it is not possible to assume with reason that MR will poll below what he polled in the 2005 Presidential election. If at all, he may increase the vote percentage from the 2005 figures in many districts. To assume that he will poll less than 2005 figures is to pay a blind eye to all what he has done in terms of the war victory, infrastructure development (irrespective of various charges of corruption by the opposition), and increase in his popularity among certain sectors, basically rural electorate, due to the provision of infrastructure facilities, education and health facilities and communication facilities. Thus the more realistic scenario is to assume that this time his vote percentage will increase from the 2005 levels.

Columns III and IV in Table 2 provide percentages assuming that his votes increase by 3 or 6 percentage points from the 2005 levels. Column IV shows that with a 6% increase from the 2005 levels, MR will fall below 50% mark in 8 districts, i.e. Kandy, Nuwara Eliya, Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, and Badulla. It is noteworthy that the percentage increase in MR’s overall votes between 2005 and 2010 elections was 7.71.

If we use above-mentioned projection, it is probable that MR can win the election with 50.00% or more votes this time. However, we have to remember that 2005 was far too distant a context to make predictions about an election being held in 2015 on its own. Factors that contributed to 2005 victory were quite different even from the factors that contributed to 2010 victory by MR. Furthermore, the voter patterns and intentions may differ significantly this time compared to both 2005 and 2010 Presidential elections for a variety of reasons.

Thus we need to find another way of utilising a more recent context or an index as a base to project the possible outcome of 2015 election. This is attempted under Projection III.

Projection III: Using 2014 Badulla Provincial Council result as a Barometer

Some commentators have cited Uva Provincial Council election result as a watermark in the electoral cycle of Sri Lanka mainly because the opposition parties performed better compared to other Provincial Council elections, particularly in the Badulla district. A notable feature of this result is that the combined result by three opposition parties passes the critical 50% mark –though the UNP itself could not achieve this outcome on its own. The number of votes obtained in Badulla district at the Uva PC election 2014 by the UNP (44.79), People’s Liberation Front (4.67) and the Democratic Party (0.73) comprise a total of 50.6 percent of valid votes (In the 2005 election, the UNP received 53.11% in the Badulla district).

If the common opposition candidate Sirisena is to win the 2015 Presidential election, at the minimum he has to obtain a voter percentage of 50%, preferably more.

Thus it makes sense to use this combined opposition party result in the Badulla district in 2014 PC election as a benchmark to estimate the chances of the common opposition gaining a majority of over 50% in the current election. For this purpose, we can still use the 2005 Presidential election results (percentages) as a base-knowing its limitations. This has its own limitations as the voting patterns countrywide may have substantially changed since 2005. However, given the fact that 2010 Presidential election was a high voter mark for MR as explained earlier and thus biased in his favour, it is better to use 2005 election results as it reflects a more conservative context where an emerging leader like Sirisena was contesting the election against many odds.

Scenario I

In this scenario, we can utilise the percentage difference or gap between what the combined opposition obtained in Badulla at the PC elections – 2014(50.19%) and what MR obtained in Badulla district at the 2005 Presidential election (45.19%) as a basis for the third projection.

The 50.19 figure achieved by the combined opposition in the 2014 PC elections in Badulla represents an additional 5% compared to the vote percentage that MR obtained in the Badulla district in 2005 Presidential election. The closest column to this figure in table 2 above is column IV with a 6% increase from the 2005 Presidential election results for MR.

To obtain the “projected vote percentages” in each district under this scenario, I apply the difference of 5% to the percentages of votes received by the UNP in the 2005 Presidential Election in all districts (see Column II, Table 3.

Scenario II

From the perspective of the UNP, which is the main opposition party, the 2005 Presidential election reflected a best-case scenario as its national vote percentage (48.43%) was very close to MR’s (50.29%) reflecting a gap of only 1.86%. In the Uva PC Council election UNP was able to gain only 40.24% compared to UPFA’s 51.24% reflecting a gap of 11%. In the Badulla district, the UNP received 44.79% while UPFA received 47.37%. This reflects a gap of 2.58%. The gap between the two is narrower in the Badulla district compared to the overall Uva result (2.58% compared to 11%). During the 2010 Presidential election, MR received 51.57% and Sarath Fonseka 46.67% in the Badulla district. This represents a gap of 4.9%.

However, as explained under scenario I, in the 2014 PC election the opposition parties that include UNP, PLF, and DP (44.79+4.67+0.73= 50.19) received in the Badulla district reflects a different picture.

Will the common opposition be able to muster the same result as in the Badulla district or double that vote percentage nationally this time? Column II in Table 3 provides projections for a 5% increase compared to the 2005 Presidential election result. Column III, Table 3 gives the projections for a 10% increase in the vote percentage for the common opposition based on the votes that the UNP received in the 2005 Presidential election. The results can give an indication of which districts are favourable to Sirisena.

Table 3 – Percentage of Votes received by the UNP in the 2005 Presidential Election by District and Two Projections

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Under scenario I (i.e. 5% increase), the 12 districts where the UNP (by implication common candidate Sirisena) will poll above 50% are Colombo, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Kegalle and Puttalam. In reality, we can add a few more districts to this list given the political dynamics in the 2015 election compared to 2005 election, e.g. Anuradhapura.

Under Scenario II (10% increase), the UNP (or the common opposition currently) will poll 50% or more in 14 districts, i.e. Colombo, Matale, Nuwara Eliya, Jaffna, Vanni, Batticaloa, Digamadulla, Trincomalee, Kurunegala, Polonnaruwa, Badulla, Ratnapura, Kegalle and Puttalam. We can add Anuradhapura also to this list.

On the basis of this calculation, it is reasonable to assume that if the common candidate is to win the Presidential election in 2015, he needs to obtain at least 5% more than the vote percentages that the UNP received district-wise in the 2015 Presidential election. The UNP candidate received only 44.79% of votes in the Badulla district in the 2014 Provincial Council election. The combined opposition received more than 50% in the Badulla district in the 2014 PC Council election as shown already.

This would mean that MR has to poll approximately 5-6% less when using 2005 results as the basis. Figures for this scenario for MR are calculated in Table 2, Column V. In this scenario, MR would receive a total of only 44.07% of the valid votes (the UPFA received 47.37% of votes in Badulla in the 2014 Provincial Council election).

Summary and Conclusion

This paper considered three projections of the probable election results based on 1) 2010 Presidential result percentages, 2) 2005 Presidential result percentages, and 3) a projection based on the results obtained by the UNP, People’s Liberation Front (PLF) and the Democratic Party (DP) combined in the 2014 Uva Provincial Council election Badulla district results set against the district-wise vote percentages that the UNP received in the 2005 Presidential election.

The 2010 election results were considered as too biased toward the incumbent to draw reasonable projections as they represent the pinnacle of MR’s popularity as the election was held in the aftermath of the war victory in 2009.   Results of the 2005 election were considered though it was seen as a far distant context to use as a basis on its own for credible projections. Nonetheless, the outcome of various scenarios was discussed. It was however deemed necessary to refine the projection method by using a different formula that combines an outcome from the Uva Provincial Council election 2014.

The use of Badulla combined opposition party result (UNP, PLF, DP) in the 2014 PC election as a basis was considered as the most realistic context to use for a logical projection. This result was contrasted with a projected result with a 5% increase in the vote for the common opposition from a base vote percentage received by the UNP in 2005(Column II, table 3). A 10% increase in the vote percentage received by the UNP in 2005 Presidential election was projected as a second scenario (Column III, Table 3). Results indicate a significant rise in the potential outcome for the combined opposition in the 2015 election as many districts reflect a favourable result beyond 50% for the common opposition/candidate.

However, these are calculations based on certain percentage differentials only. Nonetheless, they provide clues to what is possible and plausible in the forthcoming election.

Ground realities have changed in various districts with the recent defections, the way the government’s development initiatives have affected or not affected, perceptions of the two leaders and coalitions formed by the voters on the basis of various media representations and messages being delivered through public meetings, party and leader symbols etc. If the electorate is confused, it can deliver a significantly different result to 2005, 2010 Presidential elections. By the same token, if the experience of the voter in the cities and villages match with what one coalition is saying against what the other is saying, this can deliver a clear result one way or another.

It is this author’s considered view that the common candidate Maithripala Sirisena will be able to garner a 5-10% increase in the vote percentages in a majority of districts –compared to what the UNP received in the 2005 Presidential election- that will deliver a victory for him and his coalition in the 2015 Presidential election.

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Latest comments

  • 17
    4

    This is becoming one hell of a statistics game. It is worse than the astrologers falling over each other with forecasts(in fact they have a better, time tested method of forecasting).

    We have so many overseas refugees at the moment pushing their own barrows in the heat of the election, they try to confuse the people and score browny points.

    Thank you Gamage, why don’t you let us vote and prove the statistics TO YOU on the 8th. Please drop your laptop and have a lay down.

    Good Bye.

    • 13
      3

      Sirisena will win 70 percent of the vote in Colombo and other urban area.. In the rural areas 60 percent will support the joint opposition candidate..
      This election will be an anti-MR landslide..

      The prediction of the margin of Sirisena’s victory here is conservative.

      Sinhalayas have seen the light!

    • 5
      1

      Dr. Siri Gamage

      RE: Presidential Election 2015: Projection Of Probable Results

      Thanks for your models.

      In any model, the predictions of the model as good as the assumptions of the model.

      I think it is better to make the assumptions of the model as follows, based on how the different communities are likely to vote, based on Mahinda RajapAksa governance the past 5 years.

      Best Case, Average case and worst Case For Mahinda Rajapaksa

      Sinhala Buddhists (70%): 65%, 50% and 35% For Mahinda Rajapaksa

      Lanka Tamils:(11%): 50%%, 35%% and 20% For Mahinda Rajapaksa

      Estate Tamils:(5%): 50%, 40% and 30% For Mahinda Rajapaksa

      Muslims :(9%) 30%, 20% and 10% For Mahinda Rajapaksa

      Sinhala Christians:(5%): 60%, 40% and 20% For Mahinda Rajapaksa

      Total: 100%, 75% Vote

      Mahinda Rajapaksa

      Best Average Worst

      0.592 0.4465 0.301

      59% 45% 30%

      • 1
        0

        Amarasiri

        I think Your methodology was the best here using common sense.

        However you are like a guy who withdraws satisfied without waiting for the woman to also have an orgasm.We were waiting with bated breath for your final verdict but you land us with three scenarios and buckerof satisfied without giving us any satisfaction.

        So i’am trying to give the orgasm that you should have given by using your methodology to get at the most likely outcome.

        so in future when you are having sex, have someone on standby mode(like me) to do the finishing touches because you seem to be a selfish guy who never thinks of the poor woman’s needs.

        Now looking at the most likely outcome for mahinda

        sinhalese bhuddhist(70%)@ 64%= 44.8%

        lanka tamils (11%)@18% =2%

        Estate tamil(4%)@25%= 1%

        Muslims(10%)@10% = 1%

        Sinhala christians(5%)@20%= 1%

        So now if we add up each component 44.8+2+1+1+1= 49.8%

        Looks like MR is just falling short of the 50% mark.That does not mean that maithri is going to get 50.2% because the other candidates will get 1-2% of the overall vote.I shaved off 1% of the best scenario sinhala bhuddhist votes which you had given to MR as 65%,to the other candidates and for maithri too i would have to do that.So for the first time in history we will have to look at the preferential votes and MR should make it then above 50%.

        So MR is going to be the next president but only just by a whisker.It reinforces my belief that he would not have an early election unless he can manage to scrape through.If he was sure that maithri will win then he would have done everything possible to postpone the election.

        It looks like we may have a scenario of a replay of 2000 with the president from one party and the PM from another,with maithri becoming the PM after the parliamentary elections are held.

        • 1
          0

          shankar

          As of 3: 47 am Jan 9, 2015.

          Maithripala Sirisena 311,117 56.16%

          Mahinda Rajapaksa 236,386 42.67%

          One of Amarasiris Posts . predictions on Jan 6 to Dr. Laksiri Fernando

          “Mahinda Rajapaksa Election Outcomes Best Case Average Case Worst Case 2010 2015 2015 56% 45% 33% Rajapaksa 42% 53% 65% Sirisena 2% 2% 2% Others 59% Average for Sirisena.”

          Likely case was for Mr. Maitripala Sirisena to get 53%, because 2010 will NOT happen for Mahinda Rajapaksa.

          In Case the Matripala Sirisena supporters gets orgasms, it could go as high as 65%.

          With Mairipala Siridena supporters getting intermittent orgasm, it could be around 59% for Maitripala Sirisena.

          Amerasiri predicted better than the Presidential Astrologers!

        • 0
          0

          shankar,

          As of 4:50 am Jan 9, 2015.

          Maithripala Sirisena
          674,493 Votes 54.24%

          Mahinda Rajapaksa
          551,568 Votes 44.35%

          Others
          17,500 Votes 1.41%

          Total Votes counted Approximately 1,243,561

          Approximately 12.4% of the Votes Counted.

          One of Amarasiris Posts . predictions on Jan 6 to Dr. Laksiri Fernando

          “Mahinda Rajapaksa Election Outcomes Best Case Average Case Worst Case 2010 2015 2015 56% 45% 33% Rajapaksa 42% 53% 65% Sirisena 2% 2% 2% Others 59% Average for Sirisena.”

          Likely case was for Mr. Maitripala Sirisena to get 53%, because 2010 will NOT happen for Mahinda Rajapaksa.

          In Case the Matripala Sirisena supporters gets orgasms, it could go as high as 65%. With Mairipala Siridena supporters getting intermittent orgasm, it could be around 59% for Maitripala Sirisena.

          Amerasiri predicted better than the Presidential Astrologers!

          https://twitter.com/Amarasi69467474

    • 9
      2

      Mr President, your time in office is over. People are very keen to see a real change. We hope that you will pack your bags and leave with respect. People have made up their minds to vote for Maithri. All latest election forecasts tell us Maithri is leading far ahead of you. It is reported that Maithri will get more than 58% vote this time. The breakdown of vote bank in percentage has been made in the following format.

      1) UNP (United National Party) 34%.
      2) JHU (Jathika Hela Urumaya) 3%
      3) DP (Democratic Party) 3%
      4) TNA (Tamil National Alliance) 6%
      5) SLMC (Sri Lanka Muslim congress) 5%
      6) JVP (Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna) 4%
      7) UPFA (United People Freedom Party) 3%

      Today, only a very few people think in communal line, most of the Sinhalese, Tamils, Muslims and others want to liberate the country from the grip of Rajapakshe’s family dictatorship.

      • 2
        0

        suresh

        very good shot at it.I like the route you have taken but not the destination.It is i think more sensible to be a bit conservative.

        I think it could be more like this

        UNP-30%

        JHU-1.5%(you forget that the JHU is split with gammanpila c/overs)

        DP-3%

        TNA-5%(likes of sasitharan are calling for boycott)

        SLMC&ACMC-5%

        JVP-3%

        UPFA-3%

        Total-30+1.5+3+5+5+3+3=50.5%

        narrow victory for maithri due to minority votes.Replay of 2005, but in reverse this time for mahinda.

  • 16
    0

    Dear Dr. Gamage,
    I’m not a MR-supporter, but I would like to admit that the methodology you utilized to calculate the average percentages in all three tables is misleading. As you know, we cannot calculate the average percentage by adding district (provincial) level percentages and dividing by the number of districts (provinces). If we do so, we should use the weighted percentage according to the number of polled votes from each district (province). I agree that Maithreepala Sirisena likely will win, but you may use a different methodology to convince that projection.
    Thank you.

    • 4
      0

      I agree that the projections can be improved by using weighted averages as you and others like Dr Fernando suggests. Even if we disregard the total averages we get by adding district averages due to reasons explained by commentators, the district averages tell the story,isn’t it?

  • 9
    0

    An arguably better basis is to use the votes cast at the last provincial council elections — for each province. If voting patterns do not change, and voters vote on party lines, 45% of the vote will be for the common candidate. Add to this the votes that will switch from UPFA to UNP, the additional votes from votes not cast (35-40% in provincial council elections, likely to reduce to about 25% in Presidential elections) and votes from close to 1 million first time voters (also predicted to be pro-MS) and it is more than likely that MS will garner more than 50% of the vote.

  • 4
    1

    Ladbroks in London has framed a market.

    CC Sira 4 pounds 50 pea Mahinda One pound 50 pea ,

    Diaspora can quadruple the LTTE cash which is idling in the bank with zero interest. if they back Siri’s tip on Sira..

    • 10
      1

      Bandula Jayasekara,

      We know that you have no option, you have to go shopping for your King but what you are doing here is not enough. Get some lessons from Dayan & Malinda.

  • 17
    1

    Oh my dear friend, it’s very simple and easy to predict the out come of this election. See the ground realities and do the Maths. Tamil – this includes all of them- North, East, Colombo and Up County – , Muslims and Christians votes not for MR. Among the Sinhales’votes – UNP and SLFP votes of Madam Chandrika and My3 are for My3.Then the JVP and JHU votes for My3. That’s it simple, and imagin where MR would end up. Landslide for My3 is a real and good possibility.

    • 7
      0

      Pipal, my friend your right , poor Siri must be a retired professor with lots of time in his hands

      Simple way to look at is like you wrote in here, ………. The ground reality today is “change”
      plus the mass defections changes the voting landscape at ground level and specially on the
      Election Day organization of one party gets crippled when you have a large scale grassroots
      defectors for Eg; polling agents set up, counting agent set up, transportation set up ,food / drinks
      distribution set up , communication and other coordination gets effected

      based on the grassroots defections MR is in even greater disadvantage along with all other factors
      that contributed to the defections

      On a side note …..the 2010 results are not reliable since there seems to be other reasons like ,
      Postal votes were going at a even level,first few results were going in favor of Fonseka, then
      results were not announced for several hours, Election Commissioner was missing for awhile,
      army blocked and kept Fonseka,Ranil and team in a hotel without the right to movement,
      results were announced via the ministry of information rather than by the election commission,
      counting agents were not provided with total tally at each electoral count that was send to the
      EC , the commissioner retired days after results were announced without any public comments ,
      Fonseka was locked up days after and could not protest any of the above and was silenced and
      the focus was changed ETC “………….. Who knows what the real vote was ……only God knows the truth…….

    • 3
      0

      The Majority in CT wish Rajapakses defeat for various reasons.

      We have seen loads of different statistics laid on tables and results of different surveys.

      I was in Sri Lanka for three weeks in December and I had a chance to speak to various people from a cross section of the society.

      My understating was that My3’s message was not delivered properly at that point TO THE RURAL COMMUNITIES.

      I was in a very rural village and villagers were not bothered and they are not aware of abolition of Executive presidency or anything else. Their main concern is simply about the rising prices of common commodities. However, the rural women folks were mostly Rajapakshe fans.

      Although the present so called developments are not for the poor people and they never benefit from any of those some people are still thrilled about the ongoing illusionary developments.

      In Colombo Majority of Middle and upper Middle class needs a change

      Maharagama, Kottawa, Homagama, Kaduwela
      At that time Rajapakshe and co was leading. However there were considerable amount of floating votes.

      Negombo – Catholics are against Rajapakse purely due to Lansa and his Brothers behaviour

      Sigiriya Dambulla 50% 50%

      Anuradapura Majority MY3

      Matara 70% Rajapakshe

      Deniyaya, Kamburupiyia – Rajapakshe has a slim majority

      One thing is clear
      GAME IS OPEN FOR BOTH PARTIES BUT RAJAPAKSHE IS NOT READY TO LEAVE THE LUXURY AND THE POWER BEHIND

  • 8
    0

    Dr. Gamage

    Your entire base is previous results. This is a wrong basis to forecast. Past results are a valid basis to prepare budgets – NOT for forecasting elections AFTER more than 12 months. Political dimensions and dynamics within the population change. That change cannot be estimated by just “sucking your thumb” estimates like what you have done. There is only one way to forecast – by surveying a true sample population representative of the larger population.

    I also saw a survey by some employees of Colombo University based on biased sample. This exercise and your one is just good to be put to the WPB!

    You could just give your personal opinion and say MR or MS is going to win! That would be just your opinion. But do not mask your opinion by preparing elaborate and misleading + – calculations to dupe the normal layman.

  • 7
    0

    Dr Gamage, 2010 poll was like an extra-ordinary item, it was just after the 30 year war victory, leave the 2010 poll results. That was like sailing with the wind, now MR is sailing against the wind.

  • 3
    2

    Ex UNP Stalwart, Dr Mervyn Silva endorses CC Sira…

    But he is going to sit in the Opposition on the 9th.

    Is Dr Mervyn smarter than Dr Siri ?….

  • 3
    2

    Silva

    Bandula Jayasekara is a keyboard warrior that is all. He can do nothing but abuse and insult anyone speaking against his king, his weakness is women, white women is his preference. Black hair is not helping the campaign Bandula huh.

  • 5
    0

    Winner Maithree is likely to secure a gap of 12%. The wave is very powerful.

  • 1
    0

    Sri lanka President election 2015 Who Will wine.5o Precent Loss. (K.Sunil in Sri Lanka.)

  • 3
    0

    There is talk of intercepting election results transmission on the way and then alter it and retransmit as if coming from the original source.

    Not for fax transmission but for online document transmission there is a way to send documents securely by using data encryption keys downloadable through the internet.

    Symantec, Commodo, VeriSign, PGP, Public and Private Keys etc. are the technical jargon involved in this regard.

    By making an online payment through credit card to those institutions providing secure data encryption and transmission services one can download Public and Private Keys to encrypt the files that are sent through electronic means.

    For example 26 pairs of keys are bought to be used at 25 counting centers and Colombo Main Election Office (CEO). One pair of keys are used at CEO and the balance 25 keys each are used at each counting office to encrypt the documents containing the election results. Each document is encrypted by both Public and Private Key before being sent through the wires/wireless. Such an encrypted document cannot be tampered even though intercepted on the way because the decryption needs the other pair of Keys which are at the main election office.

    The decryption machine at CEO must be operated by an impartial officer because if he sends the keys to government backed hackers they would extract and alter the data. Ideally this decryption machine must be firewalled, outgoing blocked, incoming limited to from counting offices, screen recording enabled throughout the election result decryption process and an external video surveillance camera installed to monitor the activities/screen of the operator.

    As an alternative a PC without internet connection can be used where the incoming files are copied to a pen drive and then manually copied to the decryption machine for the rest of the process. This is very safe method for online hacking attempts. However the other measures in the previous paragraph must be followed.

    Other ancillary measures involve the use of video conferencing to verify and authenticate the genuineness of transmitted figures by an already recognized officer/a team of officers and opposition members visually and audibly confirming the results so that at the CEO the government and opposition members can visually and audibly verify the results.

    I request these and other measures that may be proposed by others be used to ensure the integrity of the election results.

  • 3
    0

    There’s one thing that should be certain.A president with
    so much power should not be allowed to continue more than
    two terms that last twelve years.Two terms for a
    president is internationally practiced limit.It should
    not have been amended but it was done.And the man is now
    facing the people.Respectable people must be wanting a
    change.And the culture of forcing people to show gratitude
    in return for doing one’s job for which the country paid
    him generously,must be eliminated with disgust.This is
    exactly what’s unfolding.His own man is saying,enough now
    and let’s move on!His message is being picked up and we
    have seen signs of change.

  • 3
    0

    These projections based on the percentages by district is erroneous unless the said percentages are recalculated against the total votes casted in the election. Given the different populations sizes in each of these districts it is common sense that 49% from Gampaha and 49% from Vanni is not the same.

    Accordingly I invite Dr. Gamage to revise his methodology and the projections.

  • 5
    1

    Dr. Gamage,

    I think the method you have used to obtain the total averages by adding the district and provincial averages and then dividing them by the number of districts/provinces is not correct. That is a statistical error. That is why there is a discrepancy between official averages and your averages, not that they have done a ‘jilmaart’!

    ‘Jilmaarts’ must have happened somewhere else!

    Most questionable is your ‘political swing calculation’ by percentages completely disregarding voter numbers in Provinces/Districts. For example, 3 percent swing in Uva Province is not equals to a 3 percent swing in the Western Province. Likewise, 3 percent swing in the Colombo District is not equals to a 3 percent swing, for example, in the Hambantota District. Because the voter numbers are different.

    • 2
      0

      hmmm……..all depends on where everybody’s ‘Mahagedera” originates from. A 63.43-MR from Hambantota, for example, would translate a proportionate amount to Colombo if the Hambantota-originator resides in C’mb with the same 63.43-MR-mindset (far fewer C’mbo residents residing in Hambantota). (63.43-MR-mindset representing the character of the district……………like 99.99%-Ranil would represent C’mb 7)

  • 4
    0

    This must be an utter rubbish and mathematically wrong! When the writer says 12% less where that 12% goes?? To the Opposition. If that is the case, MR will get 24% less not in the way the writer has calculated???

    AM I WRONG HERE?

  • 3
    0

    This is a GILMART statistics…. If MR loses 5% of votes to the Opposition, his decline in % would be 10% and if he loses 6% votes to the opposition his decline would be 12% and if it is 12%, it would be 24%.

    I guess the writer has totally missed that point!!

    • 2
      1

      That’s correct , MR only needs to lose around 5 to 8 % from last election and he’ll be done ,

      The possibilities of MR losing that % is very likely with his and UPFA ‘s normal muslim vote bank of between 35 to 40 % has definitely collapsed to low 20’s
      among the Tamil vote he is more likely to lose around 3% from his previous tamil vote total
      among the Sinhala vote there is two types one being rural and other being urban,, he is most likely to hold onto the rural Sinhala vote but may end up losing around 1 to 1.5 % however his urban Sinhala vote has shrunk by over 4 to 8%

      Let’s not forget the almost a million new voters on the block with a ” change” mind set and anti incumbent wave

      In a cleanly conducted election, based on those above facts MR has no chance wining

  • 4
    0

    With a MSC in Statistics, I have followed the surveys a bit.

    My view three interesting surveys:

    A. UVA – decline of MR supporters of 21% and most likely the reason why MR chose to hold elections as early “was allowed” according to (his) constitution.

    B. The “Colombo University” survey that a day later was rejected by that same university – something we have seen before with judges and what not reveals that MS would win based on their sample of majority Sinhalese assuming that minority is split 50/50. That is an extreme safe scenario which is basically the safety margin all taken from MS his piece of the cake. (n=1000)

    C. Then there is an online survey showing that Sri Lankans with computers, 82% of them votes for MS (n=34000 a huge sample)

    Of course the latter is a certain group of Sri Lankans, certainly not the rural voters but if you would average the three surveys above, you approach that 21% again that MR has lost in a real election recently.

    And didn’t you notice that Sri Lankans suddenly all are open speaking about it? No fear anymore you say something to your neighbour and he turns out to support MR. No fear hiding your opinion when talking to the cleaning lady.

    There is a real vibe of people that are fed up with this greed

    • 1
      0

      That’s correct , MR only needs to lose around 5 to 8 % from last election and he’ll be done ,

      The possibilities of MR losing that % is very likely with his and UPFA ‘s normal muslim vote bank of between 35 to 40 % has definitely collapsed to low 20’s
      among the Tamil vote he is more likely to lose around 3% from his previous tamil vote total
      among the Sinhala vote there is two types one being rural and other being urban,, he is most likely to hold onto the rural Sinhala vote but may end up losing around 1 to 1.5 % however his urban Sinhala vote has shrunk by over 4 to 8%

      Let’s not forget the almost a million new voters on the block with a ” change” mind set and anti incumbent wave

      In a cleanly conducted election, based on those above facts MR has no chance wining

  • 3
    0

    Now that my friend Amarasiri’s attempts to have his pamphlet published are over, the die is cast and we await the inevitable……….we might as well recall the time when Nixon speaking to Mao at the UN said “In the USA we have elections every four years”. An unimpressed Mao replied “That’s nothing, in China I have one evely morning”

    • 0
      0

      Paul

      “Now that my friend Amarasiri’s attempts to have his pamphlet published are over,..”

      Almost over, but let’s wait to see if some Sri Lankan writer surfaces from somewhere….

      Yes, getting the Sri Lankan writers to write the Common sense Pamphlet Sri Lanka 2014 or 2015 was like herding Cattle (Harak). They kept making strange noises , Baeee, Baeee and Baeee, which only the Cattle(Harak) could comprehend.

      They say Okkooma Harak! We just wait, and wait and wait….

      Hello Thomas Paine can you hear us….

  • 3
    0

    I am an ardent Maithreepala supporter and I was looking for a logical analysis and prediction of results. However, once I got to table 2 and its footnote I realised that this analysis is a complete hoax. The percentage calculation is a joke. Anyone with atleast an elementary understanding of arithmetic would realize that you cannot get the overall percentage bu taking the mean of a set of percentages. (It’s only true is all districs have the same number of valid votes).
    This article is a sham. I hope no one will use this as propaganda for MY3’s campaign. It’ll do him more harm than good.

  • 1
    0

    You know I remember the elections in 2010 differently, in it the East majority went to Fonseka. Now people are writing articles saying it went to Rjapaksa. Where do these people get there data? What a joke.

  • 2
    0

    Dear Dr Sir, I don’t know where you learned math from – despite of your doctorate. Let me teach you. MR got 614,740 (53%) against 533,022 (46%) SF from Colombo in 2010. A difference of 81,718 (a 7% lead). Meaning MY3 needs ONLY 45,000 more votes than SF in 2010 to win Colombo. If good doctor can’t do math, 45,000/614,740 = 7.3% – meaning MR ONLY need to lose 7.3% of HIS vote base and MY3 wins Colombo. In case you still dont understand math – MR loses election even if he lost favour of LESS than 10% of people who liked him in 2010.

  • 0
    0

    I think that all these surveys do not take the ‘ Sinhala ‘ mentality into account.
    A vague fragile lackadaisical attitude with no focus on reality and social and economic issues.
    M S is talking of vast corruption which was supported by him and he too had a share, his brother cornering the paddy market, and M S saying that there is a Mafia in the drug trade.Why did he not resign???
    We ordinary citizens knew all these but remained helpless.
    All these beggars who crossed over from wherever to whichever knew and shared these spoils. M S will never be able to lead this Country out of this chaos, He is with foxes and hyenas they are all waiting and longing to take personal control.
    Sarath Fonseka wants defense so that he could take revenge. Premadasa wants the UDA like his father to make money and help the Maharajas, Ravi wants the commerce to swallow up the CWE and so on and on.

    MR the known devil has now realized that the whole Country has come to know of his dare devil thieving and therefore will remain cautious.

    Out of the 70 % Sinhala Buddhist’s votes, 60 % will vote 35 / 40 will go to MR

    MS will get about 25 / 30 % that is for sure.

    The minority votes about 30 % only 20 % will vote, they will be split somewhat evenly.
    THAT IS MY PREDICATION.

    Sri Lanka is still Tribal in mentality, in between the lines you can see only religion and language playing a leading role, but full of rhetoric.

  • 0
    0

    All your wonderful projections are finally in the hands of those who count the votes. The votes don’t really matter in the end. When Election Monitors are not allowed in around 70% of the centers, no one is allowed to follow the trucks taking the ballot boxes from the polling booths to the counting centers…so project all you want, it is of no use when the system itself is corrupted after the 18th Ammendment. In fact this is why the 18th Ammendment was passed, to control the elections.

  • 0
    0

    i think every one is right..

  • 1
    0

    Dr. Siri Gamage is weak in his Mathematics. He is trying to show some new type of Statistics. He must be an Art Graduate from University of Ceylon around 1965 when an IQ tests were conducted. At the Time Average IQ level of the people was 76%(which is much below average). Among the Peradeniya University Students the ranking of IQ values were follows. I do not have actual figures, but I can roughly guess the values.

    1. Students of Science and Mathematics faculties (may be around 130%)(10 years ago I knew few who were good at Math IQ was around 140%
    2. Engineering Faculty (may be around 125%)
    3 Faculty of Medicine (around 110)
    4 Faculty of Arts and social sciences (around 90%)(Below average)
    5 Ordinary illiterate people(at the time) must have been below 60%.

    Marlin Monroe had an IQ of 176% and George W Bush had only 130%. Poor little innocent beauty had a passive(like a Candle in the Wind) personality and Bush had an Arrogant attitude.

  • 0
    1

    Dear Readers,
    Well, You all are seems to be bias.
    Let me figure out the result predictions as below.

    Three key points considered.

    1. 2005 election results for analyse the maximum Vote % of UNP, MC & Rishards
    2. 2013 Nothern province results for evaluate TNA vote Base ( maximum) & MRs vote base in nothern province
    3. 2010 Election results for MRs existing capacity( 58.12%) & Maximum competitor SFs capacity

    4. Total new votes ( after 2013) are just above 1 Million Votes. Total number of votes 15.5 Million. Total casting number of votes genberally 74% and we will predict 75% this time.

    I guess that these secondary data are fair enough. Qualitative data need to evaluate since CBKs political repatriation. Honestly, MY3 lost the confidence of majority of floating votes due CBKs penetration.

    By analyzing those, we could have following results.
    Any winning candidate should earn, 50% + votes OR 5,825000 Votes.

    We analyse My3 side first.
    1. In Northern province, he could get more 285,000 Votes ( With reference 2013 TNA winning results.
    2. Eastern province , MY3 could get more 85,0000 Votes ( Due Rishard Factor)

    3. As you guys are claiming, rest of all other districts ,, If MY3 improved his vote Base by 30,000 Votes,, Maximum he could get 480,000 Votes

    4. If he get 50% of floating, new votes – he could get 3.75 New votes.

    5. Existing 85% UNP vote base – 3.57 Million

    His total earning = 3.57 + 0.375 + 0.48+ 0.085 + 0.285 Million
    = 4.795 Million + JVP 0.2
    = 4.995 Million

    Since , MY3 will short of 830,000 Votes for get elected.

    With reference % , MR will get 54.85% on 2014. Please note that I have not calculated the loosing number of MS due various negative factors.

    Enjoy,,,

  • 2
    0

    Here is my opinion on the voters behaviour at the voting polls on 8th January.Sinhala Buddhists-50-55% percentage of votes to president Mahinda and 45-49% votes goes to common candidate maithri.Srilankan tamils-65-70% percentage of votes goes to common candidate maithri and 30-35% percentage of votes goes to president mahinda.Indian tamils-70-75% votes goes to maithri and 25-30% votes goes to mahinda.Muslims-85-90% percentage of votes goes to maithri and 10-15% votes goes to mahinda. Christians-55-60% votes will go to maithri and 40-45% votes will go to mahinda.So I will say common candidate maithri will win by a narrow majority.

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