21 November, 2018

Blog

Six Myths Of The Opposition

By Dayan Jayatilleka –

Dr Dayan Jayatilleka

Erroneous political thinking and analysis obscure and obstruct the path of the political recovery of the Opposition in Sri Lanka. They can be disaggregated into six myths.

Myth 1 is that unity at all costs in the ranks of the main democratic opposition party is a necessary and sufficient condition of political success.

The reality is that as in mathematics, any number into zero is zero. If the leader or candidate of the main opposition party is an electoral liability, internal unity only suffocates rather than liberates. If internal unity within parties is an absolute condition of political success, there wouldn’t be a gruelling season of primaries in US politics aimed precisely at putting the party on the right track and choosing the candidate with the best chance of winning. France went a step further with a nationwide election for the leadership of the French Socialist party.

Myth 2 is that unity of the Opposition ranks is a necessary and sufficient condition for constituting a viable counterweight to the regime and projecting a credible alternative government.

The reality by contrast, is twofold: not only is a united opposition under an unappealing leadership and on the basis of a wrong-headed programme, an insufficient condition for victory, a disunited opposition can still cause regime change if a single one of the divided opposition proves to have the winning strategy and candidacy. Pakistan’s recent elections and the victory of Nawaz Sharif and his PML is a stark case in point.

Myth 3 is that the latent or growing economic crisis, taken together with the fulfilment of conditions one and two listed above, can defeat the regime.

The reality is that economic crises, however serious, can play themselves out an infinite variety of ways, given the intersection and interplay with and the overlay of other factors, most notably nationalism, ethnicity, religion and language. The rise of fascism in Germany against the backdrop of the Depression is of course the classic case in point.

The philosopher Louis Althusser, while noting that for Friedrich Engels the economic factor is said to be effective only ‘in the last instance’, wryly observed that nonetheless ‘the lonely hour of the last instance’ in which ‘ His Majesty the Economy’ strides forth as all other factors step back with a curtsy,  ‘never comes’. Instead he unrolls the concept, borrowed from Freudian psychoanalysis, of ‘overdetermination’; of a complex compound of unevenly developing factors exceptionally reaching a point of condensation in which however, the dominant factor is hardly ever the economic ( or to say the same thing, is almost always non/ extra-economic).

The greatest political thinker of the 20th century, Antonio Gramsci, whose concepts have had to be rediscovered and grasped by parties making a victorious breakthrough, ranging from Britain’s New Labour to Brazil’s PT, characterised the notion of an economic crisis ultimately sweeping all before it as ‘mechanistic’ thinking and an almost religious faith that sustains opposition parties in long years of adversity but does not really bring them to a position of ‘hegemony’. For hegemony to be achieved, an indispensable factor is not the economy but the ‘national–popular’ or the ‘popular–national’, and the Opposition as presently led, consistently fails that test, not only on the ‘ national’ aspect (‘can we Sinhalese / can we as Sinhalese trust him? Will he betray us?) but also the socioeconomic (does he care about us? won’t he privatise everything?).

Myth 4 is that it is not necessary to win over a majority of the majority of voters; the securing of the fullest support of the minorities would render necessary only a quarter of the majority vote, which would be almost automatically obtained due to the coming economic crisis.

The reality however, is that in conditions of a perceived existential threat such as that posed by/from Tamil Nadu, any swing of minority votes to the Opposition candidate could be compensated for by a corresponding or greater swing of an ethnic majority to the rival candidate, especially when the opposition candidate is indelibly associated in the collective memory of the overwhelming ethnic majority, with a period of national humiliation. Even without such a polarising dynamic, electoral victory is sometimes possible with strong support from a large ethnic group: the support of the Punjab was the basis of Nawaz Sharif’s victory.

Myth 5 is that a spoiler candidacy can guarantee the victory of the Opposition.

Here again, the reality is that in a presidential election, even if a breakaway pushes the race into a run-off, it is a choice of two national leaders and the question is who do we trust to be our leader in these difficult times? It is difficult to imagine that choice being the current leader of the Opposition under any circumstances; still less if he competes against the present incumbent. This negative factor cannot be transcended, however the Opposition is configured.

Myth 6 is that successful street protests are a precursor or indicator of nationwide political strength and momentum.

The truth is that public protest and social movements are of considerable importance, especially as catalysts, but even the most impressive protest constitutes but a fraction of the voting citizenry of any country; social protests do not automatically translate into political success and may prove electorally irrelevant or even generate an electoral backlash. From the protestors at Tahrir Square to those in Moscow, massive demonstrations in the recent past have not been reflected in the national political endgames. This was of course true of the dramatically romantic ‘events’ of May ’68 in Paris and the paradoxical June ’68 victory of the Gaullists in the National Assembly election, the anti-Vietnam demonstrations in the US followed by the election of Richard Nixon, and the protest years in the UK ranging from the Coal Miners’ strike to Greenham Common which proved run-up and backdrop to the enthronement of Thatcherism. In Ceylon, the Left famously launched the Hartal of 1953, while the non-participating SLFP won the election of ’56. Much depends on whether the demonstrations accurately reflect the nation’s social composition (albeit in miniature), whether they fail to resonate with the broader public, or whether the protests do resonate with respect to the specific issues at hand but do not constitute/present an acceptable alternative leadership and political project for the nation.

Though Egypt and Russia are superficially contrasting cases in that the former represented change and the other continuity, there are underlying factors common to both. By-passing the urban demonstrators and their dramatic manifestations, the bulk of the citizenry voted for patriotic or nationalist populists who had retained the support of the provinces and the clergy and stood for a strong nation-state.  Mohammed Morsi and Vladimir Putin were both more ‘organic’ – to use another concept from the Gramscian canon—than their rivals. Putin rescued Russia from its seemingly endless retreat as a state during the years of pro-western appeasement under Yeltsin and won the Chechen war. The first half of the last decade, the CFA-PTOMS years were Sri Lanka’s Yeltsin years and the UNP leader our Yeltsin, while Mahinda Rajapaksa is seen to have redeemed Sinhala self-respect and restored the strength of the state.

As in Egypt, Russia and Pakistan, he or she who can break through and swing the provinces can win the election in Sri Lanka. As Mervyn de Silva once wrote, [in Ceylon] the road to power through the ballot box runs through the paddy fields. The UNP has and can pull it off, but only under an ‘organic’, ‘national-popular’ leadership. It has always failed when its leadership is seen as ‘comprador’ and/or minoritarian. However much the policies of the incumbent administration run contrary to the objective interests of the Sinhalese and Buddhists, including those in the provinces, the Opposition’s current leadership is not and will never be subjectively, normatively, regarded as ‘organic’ and ‘national-popular’ as Mahinda Rajapaksa is, and certainly not more so.

Given public perception of two equally patriotic candidates (or two equally unpatriotic ones) the electorate will opt for the one who can be trusted on socioeconomic issues, which is why welfarist Labour party leader Clement Attlee who had been in the wartime coalition government, defeated Winston Churchill and Prime Minister Premadasa beat Madam Sirimavo Bandaranaike in 1988. If peaceful democratic regime change is to take place the only way it can and at the earliest time it can, namely at the Presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled for 2015-2016, the UNP and the Opposition at large, must visibly, audibly and credibly close that ‘patriotic’ gap.  No student of history can underestimate the fund of legitimacy derived from a historic military victory over a deeply hated foe in a ‘fault-line war’. No student of politics should assume that the parabola of such patriotic legitimacy is easily intercepted by an Oppositional project moving on a purely economic and governance trajectory. When I say that successful interception would take a Patriot missile, the pun is intended.  A caveat: Mahinda Rajapaksa’s appeal does not derive exclusively from patriotic achievement. Even among those who can lay claim to that achievement, he communicates more personal appeal. He comes across as resolute but affable; more personable, less dangerous.

No political formation that fails to carry with it (a) the provinces and (b) the armed forces and their families, can win an election. Without the support or benign neutrality of the latter, a level playing field may be difficult to secure. The UNP can win in the context and under conditions of an economic crunch but not if – and not as long as –it is led by someone who triggers the collective ‘memory Claymore’ of the CFA and thus generates apprehensions of the weakening of the national state, national security, the erosion of sovereignty, the bartering away of the military victory and a sell-out of the Sinhalese in the face of ‘external’ and ‘alien’ pressure, threat and imposition.

Mahinda Rajapaksa’s significant speech at the Victory Day parade this year demonstrated that he retains much of his appeal, and remains the figure with the most credible narrative and discourse in the Lankan political landscape. His speech also demonstrated the sources and components of that discourse: the invocation of the memory of national retreat to the brink of defeat and dismemberment, followed by resistance, recovery and victory. The narrative is encased in a larger longer chronicle of Sinhala history and the emergence of the ‘great leader-saviour’ who heads the resistance and thereby the revival. The underlying theme is national resolve, faith in the patriotism, the resilience and heroism of the people, especially the youth, to resist.

The narrative is emotive and credible, tapping into deeper wellsprings than all other available discourses. The audience is the majority of the overwhelming majority, the Sinhala families living in the provinces.

The impressive parade also has a message, whether intended or not, in the run-up to the Northern Provincial Council elections which the alphabet soup of Tamil ultranationalists in Tamil Nadu and the Diaspora need to take on board: this is what you will have standing in your way in case you are tempted to opt for an exit strategy, and there’s plenty more where they come from. These men and women, this generation, this leadership and future ones will fight any attempt from which ever quarter, at dismemberment of the island and a return to the dark days of retreat and appeasement.

That’s a discourse that’s hard to beat and can neither be negated head on nor ignored; it can only be superseded. It can only be superseded by an alternative discourse which respects and incorporates these themes and supplements them with others, rather than rejects them.

The Opposition as currently led has no credible narrative, no discourse, which has any comparable emotive power. No leadership which is embedded in the public memory and the historical narrative as having appeased the Tiger has the chance of a snowball in hell of beating a leader whose story is a stark contrast– one of victory.

Anyone who watched Mahinda Rajapaksa’s V-Day 2013 speech and thinks that whatever the material hardships, the present leader of the Opposition can come remotely close in terms of credibility and appeal, or assumes that the latter’s CFA track record can be brushed under the rug, or that this memory of national disgrace will not turn the entire Opposition electorally radioactive; anyone who thinks that the voter will entrust the leadership and future of the country/ ‘nation’ to such a person over and above Mahinda Rajapaksa, is rendering the status quo a great service by refusing to identify what fundamentally needs to be rectified and the strategic re-positioning of the Opposition that is imperative. Eric Hobsbawm’s autobiography notes with considerable pride, his long struggle to replace the unelectable Labour Left and shift to a nationally acceptable and electorally viable strategy, programme and leadership.

The majority of the citizens are Sinhalese; the majority of Sinhalese are patriotic or if you prefer, nationalist. They will remain especially so in the face of the combination of Tamil nationalist challenge from the Diaspora and Tamil Nadu and Western/West-based criticism of the armed forces and the war on grounds of accountability. So long as it led by ‘CFA-Ranil’, the main democratic Opposition cuts itself off from that patriotic majority of citizen-voters who support the victory over the Tigers. It cannot compete with the incumbent on the terrain of patriotism/nationalism. That terrain must and can be shifted but it cannot be shifted beyond certain parameters (outside of which the present UNP leadership will always tend to fall). Not even a severe economic crisis can shift the terrain fundamentally, because what is involved is a collective perception of an existential challenge or threat. Anyone who thinks this terrain can be fundamentally altered or profitably abandoned as toxic, lacks a sense of both history and politics and how they work (not least in Eurasia and the post-colonial global South).

This is why every serious and responsible political analysis, commentary or discussion today must revolve around the elections that are on the horizon, in the middle distance. Regime change in the UNP/Opposition remains a prerequisite for democratic change in the larger polity. Without such peaceful, democratic, internally generated change, we may be unable to prevent the escalation to ‘hard options’ by powerful external actors; options which may cost us our sovereignty, security and territorial integrity; our existence as a single state and country.

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Latest comments

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    Dear Doctor, your resources are not use to nation.When you enter to active politics with the suitable leader.

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      See what conceited notions they have of themselves. Dump Ranil? Who the hell are these buggers? Do they seriously believe they are the cat’s whiskers and they are the play makers of politics in this country? Anything but! After 2001 did not RW receive at the Presidential Election in 2005, over four million votes, including the so called grass roots, less than one hundred and eighty thousand than MR. Leave the Northern vote out which MR paid VP to prevent RW receiving same, what about the four hundred thousand odd votes that RW was denied deleting the electoral Registers in the South? Had RW received the Southern vote, he would have defeated MR by a bigger margin than one hundred and eighty thousand. Mind you this performance of RW was with all the false publicity of RW having given part of the country to VP and the LTTE, while accusing RW underhand dealings with VP, to see it was none other than MR who has had dealings with VP. The UNP has the biggest vote base as a party and that is why the SLFP always had to rely on coalitions to form govts, whereas the UNP has formed govts of their own. This is a fact. Even today if an impartial election is held the result would be similar to what RW received at the Party Leadership election, which stunned many a critic of his. Yet these buggers are trying their best to mislead the masses. How pathetic as these critics of RW have become counterfeit.

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    NO !!! NO!!! Dayan… Ranil Wickramasinghe is 1000 times better than Sajith Premadasa. Don’t add insult to injury !!

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      Er…then why not have a primary or a poll among all UNP members? Or let all the elected members of the UNP including Pradesheeya Sabha members, vote at a convention, on which one of these two they want as candidate?

      Right now the answer is obvious from the response that each gets at UNP meetings in any part of the country.

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        ahhhhh… I knew you were beating around the bush!

        Dr. D, I’m dead certain that your horse will win, given that this is a country where Upeksha Swarnamali commands more votes than Karu Jayasuriya and Mervyn silva’s popularity in Gampaha district etc… Why?? (You are a political scientist and you know why!)
        Dayan no point in replacing Mahinda Rajapaksha with a very younger of its very own kind especially under a Presidential system likes ours.

        Now

        Then how can we win an election with Ranil (I consider Ranil is the only choice not the best choice). For that, Myths 1 to 4 would have to collaborate in future like it happened in 2001. Ranil is comprehensive (comparatively) but it’s his Achilles’ heel which makes him prefer a holiday in a Benthota resort over a marketing stunt in a religious event.

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          It is precisely because of 2001 and what he did after it, that there won’t be a repetition by the electorate.

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    Elected representatives of the opposition who betray their promises to the party under which they contested,and betray those who voted for them,and “cross over”,decide the government in sri lanka.
    Sri lanka is unique in forming governments.

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    According to this analysis it would seem that there is no chance for the opposition at all. Maybe this is the thinking of MR too, who does his level best to keep RW in the seat of power. The other alternative is SF who is kept under control by extra-legal means. Other leaders like Sajith, Karu and Chandrika are kept on the sidelines.

    However there could be an outside chance where the majority say, enough is enough, due to the adverse the socio-economic factors that are keeping them down as a race and nation. After all the examples of Gaddafi and Thaksin Sinawatra are before us. Will it be a pseudo-nationalistic corrupt govt of a development oriented national govt? The people will have to decide. The fortunes of the govt are on the decline and they cannot have it better than the last time.

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    DJ, you have poured icy cold water over the heads of some of us who believe that this corrupt, dictatorial and corrupt regime could only be defeated by an united opposition!

    Per your incisive anlaysis we now have to brace for “‘hard options’ by powerful external actors; options which may cost us our sovereignty, security and territorial integrity; our existence as a single state and country.”

    How long that may take “God only knows” (a la Mohan Peiris).

    Until then aluta continua!!!

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      Go for the soft option: pick an Opposition leader who can appeal to the rural/provincial voter…and possibly also win back the UNP defectors plus SLFP dissidents across the floor of the parliament.

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        Dayan, you have said everything that makes Ranil unsuitable for opposition leadership except your choice as to who is the best option as per your thinking. It is time you stop hide and seek game and reveal yourself, your choice; otherwise there is no point in posting endless criticisms against Ranil! When you say something of as graver concern as replacing opposition leader you must bear responsibility for everything you say and must give people the option as well, not just throwing the water basin without with the baby!

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    FACT is that this Regime will never be defeated as it has all instruments to keep them in power, including police and armed forces to intimidate democratic institutions, media and people, ample money to buy anyone and anything, and the tools like religious extremism to fool innocent masses. They use all tactics, including blackmailing, to keep ‘leaders’ under their thump. Worst, the so called individuals go around the country and the world to prop up this nasty regime. Have you received the payment yet, DD?

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    A little bit of Althusser and Gramsci in the service of Sinhala Fascism of Dayan’s kind added with a paranoia regarding Tamil Nadu and the Diaspora which for D is equivalent to LTTE is presented here as a Marxist analysis.

    Why not own up to your Sinhala Fascism instead of masquerading as a Marxist? Working with MR brothers itself shows where you are coming from more than any psudo intellectual babble?

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      Paranoia, huh? Check out the photographs now up on this website….the ones from London, with plenty of Tiger flags. And the news item of the TGTE proclamation.

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        Dayan,

        I respect your articles and read them even more from the past few weeks on.

        But what bothers me is why NOT you even raise a SINGLE word about the appalling levels of law and order situations prevailing in the country today. I truly believe the situation while a war going on was not this dangerous in the country for people. President is said to have ears on the ground, but why then he intentionally pays blind eye to many of the issues related to safeguard the security for the life of some people in the country. Local radio senders have collected all evidences to prove that politicians are behind all on going crimes in the country. MR as the minister of defence is accountable for all these handlings.
        How would you explain as one of them if you would be questioned on the the partiuclar issues ? As I got to know from a particular – acceptable audio broadcasted by a local sender -even pregnent woman are attacked by thugish politicians these days in the country. All these are carried out with knowledge of regional police (Hikkaduwa) under the commands of the PC politicians.
        Attached is the link for those who are interested in these issues:

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RePgxmi__j4

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      Sinhala fascism? MR brothers? You are a bit of an oaf aren’t you? If you read the article you would see that I’m showing you the only way you can liberate yourselves from them…

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        So he is an OAF and you are showing us the only way ?

        Step outside your self and analyze that statement…..it is you who have had a nervous breakdown and should seek treatment.

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    The most striking thing about the 2013 Victory celebrations was how dependent our hard power is on the US. All of the impressive military hardware that was on display: Tanks, Ships, Figher Jets, run on petroleum products that come from oil fields in the Middle East that are jealously guarded by the Americans.

    Therefore, it would have been appropriate for MR to pay tribute to our American friends on the occasion of our “Victory Day” by saying something like “We would also like to thank the United States of America for giving us the gift of Oil: Oil to run our military equipment, Oil to run even the Land Rover defender from which I inspected the troops today. Rest assured, we will never be so foolish as to do anything that would give the United States reason to turn off the oil spigot”!!!

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      The patriot is always in serendipity, mourning the loss of influence of the pay master. Pls come back Sivaram.

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    Six myths boil down to one recommendation: shoot Ranil. That’s a 9 word article. :)

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      That’s ten letters, actually, and mine is a shorter, less drastic solution: ‘drop Ranil’ or ‘dump Ranil’. That’s nine letters.

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    The global economy, with the exception of Germany, is in such bad shape right now, that it makes little difference who comes to power. Ranil was able to do a lot during the time of the CFA and before because the worldwide economic situation was a lot better. The so-called “economic indicators” are a lot more favourable for Prime Minister Ranil than for EP Mahinda. At that time, it was easy to attract foreign investment and the like. If Ranil or anyone else came to power right now, you would still have above average inflation, high unemployment, a staggering trade deficit, etc. The point is that Sri Lankans have little incentive to elect someone new right now. I predict that if the economic situation (outside of Sri Lanka) improves, Sri Lankan voters will dump MR in a heartbeat, by any means necessary, assuming that the next leader (not Ranil) is not in bed with the Eelamists and other secessionists.

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    Your problem is that Ranil wont give you the time of day ! I don’t blame him either, one egomaniac is more than enough in one set up.

    You want Sajith because you see him as a soft target…you can use your fancy English and your pseudo intellectuality to brow beat that moron with his mothers brains, into submission.

    Either build up the Liberal Party and do it the hard way or get lost ! There are no short cuts to the top as you should well know by now.

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    Dayan Jayatilleka is probably right in his reasoning. We all know in our guts that Rajapaksa will still carry the day against the opposition. Even when we see protests mounting there is also consternation as to who is there as an alternative. To the liberal thinker Rajapaksa does not epitomise the perfect leader even though there is admiration for defeating the LTTE. I wonder why he cannot be better. He projects a friendly demeanour but often acts viciously against opponents. He is not truthful most times. He is not committed to justice and fairplay, nor to the rule of law. He is despotic and therefore not a true Buddhist. He is a totally committed political animal without scruples. These are not qualities admired by the liberal mind who desires a fine humble and just ruler, and this may be why many of us disapprove of him. Can Rajapaksa change for the better? He is already long in years and probably has no intention of, or has the capacity to change. May be it is not in the man to change and become an emperor Asoka. We know that he has no generosity of spirit, no forgiving trait that can be awakened even at this stage like a Mandela. Ranil Wickremasinghe on the other hand is self absorbed and self opinionated but is he the alternative we desire? Or should Rajapaksa change for the better? This is why Jayatilleke’s article is topical and raises a question we need to answer.

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    Dr. Dayan
    Let me turn the clock back to pre 2005 Presidential Elcection last stage campaign TV programs.

    In which much leaner and handsome Dr. Dayan came on and advise the electorate why we should choose Mahinda over Ranil.How Eloquent were you in Sinhala and articulate on delivering the message to vote for Mahinda.
    ( I remeber the words ‘deveni Mahindagamanaya!)

    It is about time you come on whatever media you have access to and work tirelessly for Gen Foneseka as the man for the Job and promote him unconditionally( just as much you did for Mahinda).

    The argument I put forward above holds water Viz.
    You seem to think we need a Patriotic leader( How patriotic anybody else than Gen Fonseka? when all the Rajapaksha siblings ran away from WAR including Gota the current OMINIPRESENT DEMI GO(A)D, who thinks the UNIVERSE swirls around him!).

    Could Mahinda be trusted ( given the track record of how fast he forgot abolition of Executive Presidency promise with a pile of other promises like Nutritional food supplement package for pregnant mothers and suspension of exporting mothers as maids to middle east( the very reason I personally VOTE for this sucker!!! in 2005) and the infamous 18th amendemnt and shameless chasing away of the Chief Justice ( I have no sympathy for her as she who endorsed the 18th amendment was a victim of it in the end anyway( but that process was unconstitutional).

    So let us show that you got some balls Dr.
    Man should show that he got balls.
    I like your writing , I apreciate your kindness in enlightening the masses.
    Now let us do the honors to Gen Fonseka and show him his due respect and support as the Romans did for the worthy to be the leader in Rome!!!
    Let us Rally around him and appoint him our CEISOR ( not the SEIZER ( like Rajapaksa).!!!

    I do not think anybody wants to talk about UNP any more ( pls do not even mention the name of Ranil Wickramasingha and his henchmen in Sirikotha, the minions like Sajith I do not think he has any leadership qualities or even a track record of delivery as a professional.
    Gen Fonseka hasd delivered, Mahinda has not delivered on any SINGLE promise he made.

    So I rest may case, Dr. Dayan you owe one to the nation and to Gen Fonseka in particular, he is the nemesis of Mahinda today.

    What is good for the goose is good for the Gander too.
    Do Gen Fonseka as thou did to Mahinda!.

    For the electorate and party waggoneers, break wawy from your parties mainly SLFP and UNP, rally around Gen Fonseka, ( last May day Rally was a case in point with the crownd voluntarily(just like myself did ) flocking to Buddhdasa stadium) and leave Mahinda and Ranil out in the cold, they both are shameless suckers!!!!

    Bravo Dayan , the king maker.
    Do your majic like Balderdash.!!!!

    You can do it!!!!

    aj

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    Dayan,

    Party unity is a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition for political success. The leader of the opposition lost the Presidential election because Prabhakaran prevented the Tamil voters in areas under LTTE control from voting. Hence, he cannot be written off. Like all human beings, he has strengths and weaknesses.

    Good governance and maintenance of ethnic and religious harmony will favour a return to power by the incumbent President. Poor governance coupled with poor management of the economy will be sufficient for the present leader of the opposition to win the next election, if he succeeds in being nominated as the common opposition candidate.

    You are respected as an intellectual and an independent thinker. Keep it up!

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      Patriot

      “The leader of the opposition lost the Presidential election because Prabhakaran prevented the Tamil voters in areas under LTTE control from voting.”

      This and many other types of ballot rigging went on while Dayan was in charge of the department of “More War Mongering”. He should have resigned his advisory role and commenced protests against all anti democratic activities by MR and his siblings. Instead he was appointed as the chief war crime denier at UNHRC.

      “You are respected as an intellectual and an independent thinker. Keep it up!”

      He is not worthy of such praises, for many he is not an intellectual nor honest, just another person who continues to believe in his own propaganda.

      His life is his message, from his Tamil EPRLF days to date, he has been with anti democratic politico/military forces than with truly democratic ones.

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        Truth

        Comment at
        Native Vedda – May 21, 2013, 6:37 am

        is addressed to you and not Patriot.

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    Ranil is a lot smarter than people think. He figured out back in 2009 that the Mulivaikal war was going to result in an international intervention. If the the intervention results in a South Sudan style referendum then the leader of the UNP is going to win the next presidential election in a landslide. Does anyone here disagree with this?

    Ranil knows that all he has to do to become the next president of Sri Lanka is to hang on to the leadership of the UNP, and keep a low profile, so that the entire debacle at the UN can be blamed on the Rajapakses, when the time comes. So far he has done a masterful job of this.

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      Patriot, Exactly! Even Dayan has admitted and predicted the course of the events that is unfolding internationally in his own words:

      “..we may be unable to prevent the escalation to ‘hard options’ by powerful external actors; options which may cost us our sovereignty, security and territorial integrity; our existence as a single state and country..”

      Ranil is the last hope. Dayan knows it more than anybody else! But he has burnt the bridges behind, he has resorted to every underhand method and dirty tactics to falter and unsettle Ranil and bring an “easy prey” to UNP box-seat his first choice being Karu who like Dayan has proved himself to be a total failure! aj has projected a utopian wish where he implores Dayan to support SF! Hah! This is daydreams at its best! SF is a bundle of uncontrollable C4 plastic explosives who does not know abc of politics and who would, given the chance, would end up being another Hitler who would have no use of quack doctors or fake political scientists like Dayan but only Grade 8 school leaves without any brain who would be animated and activated by military commands! A lifetime professional military man turned politician is a wet dream of anybody who does not possess practical realities of life!

      CT readers, do not be bothered by Dayan’s dirty machinations of attacking Ranil! This is what he has been doing all his life after the death of RP, ever since he has been on the lookout for another political pray who can be managed by his “fake political science”! He hates Ranil because Ranil is an intelligent person who would not need the crutches and props of crooks like Dayan and who can stand on his own feet in any situation of one’s political life! As proof of what I say, now look at the life of Ranil! No amount of challenges, conspiracies, failures and seemingly insurmountable obstacles has deterred or prevented him an inch in his forward march and resolute in his political career! On the other hand look at Sajith towards whom Dayan would be more likely to turn to for supper: there is colossal manufactured support for him-Sirasa life-time and full-time support, state-patronaged support, all the half-baked and uneducated masses in the country thinking Sajith to be the alternative, Sasunata Aruna farce etc. etc. all of which pamper and mollycoddle a political idiot who is starving to grab political power to dawn another RP like terror era replacing MR calamity era, incidentally it is idiots like Dayan who are responsible for the present MR holocaust era! On one hand this fool Dayan is yelling out the country is facing a great danger of being segregated mediated by international forces but on the other look where he is standing now-on Sri Lankan soil attacking Ranil! Is it the great political wisdom of this donkey to jettison his so called “role at Geneva” to save and protect the country at international fora against the very forces that he is braying trying to divide the country and bugger out to this land and embark on a misinformation and mudslinging campaign against Ranil and try to change the leadership of UNP so that it would save the country from international forces from dividing the country? This is sheer bullshit! This fucker is clearly on the payroll of MR! If he cannot do it Geneva how can he do it here by changing UNP leadership!? This motherfucker is on the same mental-retard wavelength as his sugar-daddy MARA! They both bang on the chest, utter motherland, state, sovereignty, security, unitary, undivided, defeat of terrorism bla bla bla but they both are driven by greed, hunger for power, stupidly and vanity! A beggar or a pebble by the road is more patriotic than Dayan or MARA because the beggar or the pebble does not try to brainwash the masses and drive them mad or astray, does not waste or swindle public funds!

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      How many of the citizentry of SL would know about his smartness is the bottomline – is not that so ?

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    This is the same old record this old man is playing over and over again using different words-dump Ranil! Dayan, why don’t you walk up to Beira Lake in Slave Island and dump yourself because we are so disgusted to see your same old litany of lies and myths against Ranil! You claim yourself to be apolitical and so called political scientist! Is this the sort of stuff a political scientist must be writing? Are you mad or am I mad? What the hell have you got to do with the UNP leadership as an apolitical critique? Don’t write lies asshole! You are conspirator No. 1 against Ranil and UNP! You are a proxy of the regime! For every word of lies you utter you are paid by the regime! That is the truth!

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    Party unity? What nonsense is this? These are all wet dreams spinned by the spin-doctor! Even among the family members in an ordinary household it is difficult to maintain unity-father, mother, sons and daughters saying and wanting different things! How can this idiot hope to achieve unit in a political party? It is not the unit or the leadership of a political party that matters for the citizenry, but the problems and the ways and means of solving them! The constitution, the lack of law and order, the corruption, the maladministration, unemployment, waste, ethno-religious conflicts and issues, linguistic and cultural issues, wide ranging disparity in resources and income distribution, lack of political vision for the country… these are the problems the country is facing today. What this Dayan imbecile has been saying has no relevance to everyday problems in the country!

    Look at what this bugger says:

    “..The philosopher Louis Althusser, while noting that for Friedrich Engels the economic factor is said to be effective only ‘in the last instance’, wryly observed that nonetheless ‘the lonely hour of the last instance’ in which ‘ His Majesty the Economy’ strides forth as all other factors step back with a curtsy, ‘never comes’. Instead he unrolls the concept, borrowed from Freudian psychoanalysis, of ‘overdetermination’; of a complex compound of unevenly developing factors exceptionally reaching a point of condensation in which however, the dominant factor is hardly ever the economic ( or to say the same thing, is almost always non/ extra-economic).

    The greatest political thinker of the 20th century, Antonio Gramsci, whose concepts have had to be rediscovered and grasped by parties making a victorious breakthrough, ranging from Britain’s New Labour to Brazil’s PT, characterised the notion of an economic crisis ultimately sweeping all before it as ‘mechanistic’ thinking and an almost religious faith that sustains opposition parties in long years of adversity but does not really bring them to a position of ‘hegemony’. For hegemony to be achieved, an indispensable factor is not the economy but the ‘national–popular’ or the ‘popular–national’, and the Opposition as presently led, consistently fails that test, not only on the ‘ national’ aspect (‘can we Sinhalese / can we as Sinhalese trust him? Will he betray us?) but also the socioeconomic (does he care about us? won’t he privatise everything?)..”

    Can anybody honestly understand what he is trying to say? Is this what a so called “political scientist” must be writing in response to unjustified electricity prices hikes, tons and tons of tax burdens, untold corruption and wastage, failed development projects like Mattala, Hambantota etc., appalling human rights violations of Sinhalese as well as Tamils and other nationals?

    And he cloaks his arguments with pompous words and phrases as if he consumes Roget’s Thesaurus 24/7 much like a crack cocaine addict. And just like the latter he cannot coin a sentence without these awkward words and phrases meant for theses and specific academic journals but certainly not for general consumption. I wonder what it would be like having dinner with Dayan? Would he compliment the host with, “This chicken is simply delicious”, or, “This domestic fowl belonging to the species Gallus gallus marinated in balsamic vinegar and sage and thyme does raise the sensory nerves on my tongue,”?

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      And just like the latter he cannot coin a sentence without these awkward words and phrases meant for theses and specific academic journals but certainly not for general consumption.

      I would like to know which journals Dayan has published in. Hint: there are none. It is my understanding that he has written two books, neither of which is considered revolutionary. Dayan may be slightly well-known in diplomatic circles, but he is persona non grata in academia. :)

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    Nirosh

    “And he cloaks his arguments with pompous words and phrases as if he consumes Roget’s Thesaurus 24/7 much like a crack cocaine addict. “

    My elders tell me it is known as “just name dropping”.

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    Nirosh – your last line rings truee. He is PNG not only in
    academia but is also macademia nuts. I say that to avoid
    insulting all varieties of nuts.

    Soon after Mahinda Rajapaksa voted President, got to Sri
    Lankan newspapers. The prolific writer that DJ is wrong paens
    of praise for GR and MR. Those supine, sycophantic pieces won
    for him the first diplomatic assignment. Then, he was not there
    as Sri Lanka’s envoy in Geneva. He was the Switzerland Correspondent
    for all Sri Lankan newspapers and churned out reams and reams
    of that reflected his ‘intellectual brilliance.” Never did a job
    for the country except spend time on being a journalist,just like
    what Ravi Ariyasinha is now doing with a former Dinamina Reporter.

    Then he finished his call of duty, returned to Colombo and began
    his second innings. He was blessed once more. He was sent to France
    as Sri Lanka Ambassador. There he was like funny character Inspector
    Cleauseau writing to Sri Lankan media again, this time with an
    escargot flavour. He was so cheeky he did not attend even the conference of Sri Lankan envoys in Diyatalawa. Why? He had a special
    meeting with Monsieur Kato that was more important for the country.

    Now he is playing his third innings, rubbing it hard on MR, RW, GR
    and what have you. The discard from diplomacy and the jetsom of academia cannot play old tricks all the time.

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    Rising Tamil diaspora politics in the global stage will definitely have an impact on both UNP and SLFP. It is bad for the UNP. Rajapakses will have a slogan to rally the Sinhalese Buddhisst voters.

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    Many people are attacking Dr.Dayan,the messenger for his views that Ranil should be dumped.As he rightly pointed out it is better if a vote is held as widely as possible among the UNP membership as to who they want to be the leader so that a new UNP can be born from the grassroots level.If not we are just shooting the messenger here.

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    Shanker – I think this is beyond your comprehension. No
    one is trying to kill the messenger here. People like
    Andaya, Native Veddah and Sumedha are only pointing the
    finger at the shit the messenger is carrying. Is that
    wrong? Surely they have a right to air their views, much
    the same way spin doctor or disc jockey Dayan does. Grow
    up Shanker. This is not about the messenger but the stuff
    he is carrying in his underpants and between his ears.

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      Moalgaha,i give below what Dr.dayan says in one of the comments

      “Er…then why not have a primary or a poll among all UNP members? Or let all the elected members of the UNP including Pradesheeya Sabha members, vote at a convention, on which one of these two they want as candidate?

      Right now the answer is obvious from the response that each gets at UNP meetings in any part of the country.

      Dr Dayan Jayatilleka – May 19, 2013
      9:36 am”

      So if you are calling him a spin doctor why don’t you have this vote he recommends and see that the UNP gets the leader that the members want.After all isn’t that democracy at work and can kill too birds with one stone and prove that Dr Dayan is a dickhead if ranil wins.

      Also dayan makes another comment which makes sense to me because three quarters of the population are rural folk

      “Go for the soft option: pick an Opposition leader who can appeal to the rural/provincial voter…and possibly also win back the UNP defectors plus SLFP dissidents across the floor of the parliament.

      Dr Dayan Jayatilleka – May 19, 2013
      10:56 pm”

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    Moalgaha,

    No proof required, this Shankar like Dayan is another dickhead operating a laundry for the wicked regime for a living. Wherever mention is made to Ranil this despicable character runs to the forum raising his sarong and writes utterly nonsensical muck to tarnish or belittle Ranil. Where the hell on earth a primary election is held to choose the leader of a political party when that party has already selected its qualified leader as per its constitution and democratically? Who the hell are these Dayan and Shankar fuckers anyway? Who are they? What posts do they hold in UNP? Who recognize them as being valid voices in the UNP? Or are they just shit eating pigs living in the gutter of MACHABAGO & Co.? Where were they when Ranil overwhelmingly won the last leadership battle? Could their proponent even mount a matching fight against Ranil the crushing defeat margin being in the region 300:5000 odd? What the bloody hell are these two buffalos grating now after they have knocked their assholes on the rock? These two Gasgembas are advocating primary election stuffing Pradesheeya Sabha members without even knowing about the UNP’s structure and hierarchy! Where on earth are Pradesheeya Sabha members going to determine the leadership while there exists a clearly established, demarcated, structured, hierarchized party structure and mechanism where essentially the essence of the party evolve to the top and leadership quite in contrast to the leg pulling apple cart up-setters like Karu, Sajith, Milinda, Dayasiri, Rosy et al who like Dayan and Shankar believe conspiracy, betrayal, dishonesty and corruption constitute the constituents of leadership!

    The other travesty of these two birdbrainers that “make sense” to their “nonsense” is the ¾ rural folk hood! What is the IQ, pragmatism, political wisdom, governance literacy of these rural folks? From time immemorial past have they shown any existential wisdom let alone political wisdom? These fools are just living hand to mouth-destroying the resources, wildlife, fauna and flora, polluting the precious water, poisoning the nature, poisoning the fellow citizen who consumes their products-the pesticides story and other “rural folk” sagas! And these two donkeys proposing such a herd of donkeys determining the future of the country just reiterates and validate my assertion that Dayan and Shankar are two pigs living in the ditch of the regime! One of the regime happy pigs had once said, “Goo kapparak kapu mata pada ganda gandakda ooyi meaning with appropriate attachment for people like Dayan and Shankar who have eaten heaps and heaps of feces of Rajapakshas the foul smell of their assholes makes no difference to them!!! It is this shitty smell oozing from them that they are incessantly blowing across these fora aimed at Ranil 24/7 moronically hoping they will be able to unsettle Ranil. But on the contrary Ranil, his leadership and above all the experience, expertise, discipline, democracy and the hope that he imparts to the party and the country is the only logical recourse that everyone in the country has ultimately to accept, consent and recourse.

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      Gabriel,yet another defeat is in store for the UNP at the Central and north central provincial council elections to be held this year.Even after that defeat your dearly beloved leader will not resign the leadership as usual and defeat after defeat is his habit now and he feels he is justified to be the leader because the party got defeated.

      The proof is in the pudding my dear and whether you win or lose the elections is what counts and not all the hot air that you land on this website.If you don’t mind being in the opposition then that is your prerogative ,but i’am sure that the majority of UNP members would like to be in the government,be it provincial or central.Just twiddling your thumbs in the opposition is i’am sure considered a waste of time by most of them and that is why they all should be given a say after languishing in the opposition for nearly twenty years,a vote to decide who should be their leader.So have a vote among all the members of the UNP, without leaders being elected by a flawed constitution that has a working commitee packed with the incumbent leader’s choice who will naturally vote for him.Your constitution you fool is very much a flawed one just like the nations constitution,and is the reason for the rot in the UNP,so don’t trumpet too much about it on this blog.A constitution that has enabled you to have defeat after defeat,ha ha.

      You say we are arse lickers of rajapakshe,what about you from your writings you are plainly an arse licker of ranil,maybe even literally because of his sexuality.When most of the UNP’ers are saying he should give up the leadership and you do the opposite then you are not loyal to the party,but loyal only to an individual,so you are firmly in the category of an arse licker who may be getting and giving favours to this individual,and due to your obsession with shit a high probability of being a partner of his too.It is obvious from your extremely passionate and vituperative comment that you are also a homosexual deeply in love with ranil,but when it comes to politics put aside your sexuality and think of the party.I have nothing against gays like you,but you have to see that your sexual passions do not cloud your judgements and yes,what you do with ranil certainly has a lot of shit involved and that cannot be avoided but you should not be psychologically affected by it as per your frequent references to shit.It cannot be avoided because you have chosen to have sex through a part of the anatomy that excretes human waste and you you should just accept the fact that it will be a dirty business and just move on,though i understand that it can be visual pollution for you.

      As for the masses,i agree with you that they are asses,but unfortunately according to the electoral system if you don’t give sufficient attention to their feelings and needs then you are going to be in the political wilderness.There is no need to let them lead you,but you have to try to lead them,without ignoring them like as if they do not matter.That is the mistake the UNP is making now.During Premedasa’s time he was for them and he led them,nobody can say that they led him,they always knew he was a leader not a follower of theirs,whereas the weak SWRD was led by them instead of leading them and today the weak foundation was laid by him giving in too much to the masses at that time and instead of leading,being a follower of theirs.So masses are a double edeged sword,to be handled properly.

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        “Gabriel,yet another defeat is in store for the UNP at the Central and north central provincial council elections to be held this year.Even after that defeat your dearly beloved leader will not resign the leadership as usual and defeat after defeat is his habit now and he feels he is justified to be the leader because the party got defeated..”

        Clearly this bastard has been frightened by the growing popularity and support gained by Ranil and UNP in the recent past especially as evident from the successful conduct of three simultaneous May Day rallies in three parts of the island, versus-Electricity-Price-Hike-protest campaigns ably supported by the Common Opposition and its chief count-and-kinetics-provider UNP and the island wide party strengthening and members recruiting programme launched by UNP. Timidified, unnerved and highly alarm-belled this bundle of swine origin has reappeared in the fora with his usual filth and lies campaign against Ranils and UNP’s pro-people movement!

        There is a glowing simile and affinity between the regime-propagated lies through its media whores, fake pro-people agents, nalaakaarayos, saffron mutts, Thalibanized Buddhists et al and the fallacies and fantasies this arse-licking swine is writing here one such brand-new “mal-adventure” story being Maithree Wickremasingh’s attending to duty while Ranil was campaigning against CEB price hike! All onsite eye-witnesses, officials and independent reporters have reported she struck work on that particular day a public denial of the story by Mrs. Maithree Wickramasinghe herself included! Now anyone who gleans information and news from the mass media can safely rule out quite a large number of lie fabricated and disseminators by this simple story itself by tracing and identifying those scavengers of the regime who are propagating this lie! Expanded and organized this is the raison detre, basis, mechanism and operation of the whole mudslinging, disinformation and misrepresentation campaign against Ranil and UNP-these pigs living in the animal park of the regime take the “inalienable facts and attributes” of Ranil and then disfigure, caricaturize, distort, cartoon and comedize the fact through the lie factories like Shankar the fucker, Sirasa, state print and electronic media whores et al Dayan included and dump and glut it down the throat of the more than 2500 history regurgitating Sinhalese Buddhist donkeys!

        If anybody really cares about the country, its future and its good governance then what he must do is not endlessly attacking Ranil for various unsubstantiated and false accusations but rally against the common enemy which is this Rajapaksha autocratic familial rule-as a rallying point there is Common Opposition, various other political parties, protest campaigns and marches, strikes, boycotts, vigils, civil movements, movements established by professionals in various fields and disciplines and of course if these Dayan, Shankar, Sajith et al fuckers cannot challenge and get rid of Ranil from UNP and they are unaccepted or cannot join above cuases why don’t they form their own political party with “their own extolled and exemplified democratic values, freedoms and precedents” and attract their endlessly haranged disgruntled UNP base vote, vote base, defectors of the regime and sanctuary seeking floating voters? Lalith and Gamini had the backbone and courage to do this! Anybody knows who they were, what their personality and ability was, that they were two of the five future leaders of UNP groomed by late great UNP leader JR! History has proved that even a great leader like JR could not prevent inborn greed of man from destroying himself and the party he has built as evidenced from Lalith Gamini Premadasa power greed struggle and the splinter and destruction of the party. While Premadasa was destroying UNP this Dayan matherfucker was his so called chief “advisor”! And both donkeys had been rearing a tiger between their legs under their sarongs who ultimately blew the bastard into pieces in the middle of the road! And no sooner had the bastard been got rid the crime scene was washed and cleaned-virtually dry cleaned!-to erase the memory of the power intoxicated presidency maniac and the Dayan’s so called UNP base vote throughout the country without any distinction as to caste creed income level and social status celebrated, lighted firecrackers, ate kiribath to celebrate the death of the rascal! That was the end of UNP unfortunately, but the beginning of the end began with RP grabbing power of UNP and mutts like Dayan and shanker swarming around RP to “advise” him on how to rule the country “patriotically” and “made in Sri Lanka”- tically! And Dayan was well rewarded for his patriotic and governance consultancy advices by the “citizenry” whom Dayan is very fond of and a pet word at the tip of his lying tongue at Borella cemetery where he was reduced to his underpants and ran around the cemetery grounds to save his lying, shoddy and despicable life!

        That was how Dayan rendered his so called “intellectual expertise” to the country and how he was duly rewarded for same. And has anyone herd of this Shankar fucker who has been grating his raucous miserable inharmonics throughout these fora? No! Why? Because this pig lives in the ditch of the regime and eats its muck for a living! And it is afraid to come to fore because it is afraid and ashamed to reveal its ugly and filthy swine mass! And therefore where it can exist is only in these fora anonymously! Anyone who can recall the bloody lies this bloody bastard shankar motherfucker living in the cesspit of MARA and Sajith has been writing one does not get surprised at the load of imaginary lies and bullshit this fucker has written here in response to my valid, well justified and concrete points. Therefore nobody ain’t going to be bothered by what this fucker wirtes about Ranil or UNP! Nobody! I merely replied to this buffalo’s muck article purely because there has to be some periodical cleansing of the much emitted by these stench dribblers lest there might be the unsuspecting passer-by who may mistake trash to be treasure-though the chances are slim and in the region 0.00000000000000000000000000%!!!!

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    I don’t agree with Dayan J most of the time. I do
    accept his view that the UNP leader, Ranil Wickremesinghe
    should go.

    I don’t know the semantics of using high faluting words
    or dropping hints with the twin objective of driving a point
    home and at the same time inflating my ego. That is not for me.

    I go for parties, discussions and even political meetings. At
    parties and discussions, the subject is about the breakdown in
    land and order, a non-indepedent judiciciary and similar issue.
    At the end, the argument comes down to RW and all of them
    united shower piss on him.

    There is no two words. RW should go. But who is to take over? Sajith
    Premadasa? He is even worse. He tries to be a carbon copy
    nationalist of MR and is a buddy of GR.

    We are then left with the saint, Karu Jayasuriya who will be in his
    seventies next year. Other than a few around him, who else believes
    that he has a chance to win a presidential race? That is in the most
    unlikely event of his being the UNP candidate.

    The argument cycle will continue and RW comes into the picture time
    and again. That Opposition Leader who flirts with the government
    and wants the people’s vote to come to power has become God’s gift to
    Sri Lanka.

    All that gets back to one question – Isn’t Mahinda better than the
    people who are colloborating with him including RW? Hellalujah!!
    You will see MR triumph again. Of course RW will continue with
    ceremonies like new constitutions, code of ethics for parliamentarians
    and what have you.

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