14 November, 2019

Blog

Still Possible To Defeat Gotabaya Rajapaksa! 

By Laksiri Fernando –

Dr. Laksiri Fernando

By the time of nominations for the presidential election, the contest appeared to move in a multipolar direction, although the SLFP declared not contesting. The reason was that apart from JVP’s Anura Kumara Dissanayake as a left candidate and Mahesh Senanayake from the civil society, a Tamil candidate (M. K. Shivajilingam) and a Muslim candidate (M. L. A. M. Hizbullah) also were contesting. Altogether, there were and still are 35 candidates. Political polarization, uncertainty and confusion were the main reasons for the situation. 

This was fundamentally different to January 2015 election which was primarily a bipolar contest, although there were 13 other small party and independent contestants. It was because of this bipolar nature that a winner could be selected from the first count. Therefore, it was assumed or predicted that the evolving multipolar nature of the contest this time would not allow, none of the two main candidates, Gotabaya Rajapaksa or Sajith Premadasa, to obtain more than 50% of the votes. 

From Multipolar to Bipolar? 

This might still be the case. But it appears that the contest is not that diffused as earlier thought and the situation is fast moving in a bipolar direction although none of the main two candidates would still not reach 50%, although one might come closer. Hence, still is the importance of preferential voting or withdrawal from the contest, and campaigning for both and achieving the desired objectives.  

However, if there is a second or preferential count, there can be much confusion and controversy. This is one reason why the Election Commission should not only be independent, but also appear to be independent, along with their officials. They should also be efficient. These are of paramount importance for the sake of democracy, and free and fair election. All Commission members and officials should commit to these principles and objectives. The ballot paper this time might be more than two feet!

More importantly, given much stakes at the election, there is much merit in voters selecting the preferred or the less offensive candidate outright, among the main two, without going in rigmarole fashion, first voting to a third party (left or civil society), and then giving the preference to the ‘best among the worst’ two candidates. These are few things that I would advocate at this election at this moment. Others are my objective and indifferent assessments of different situations, issues and trajectories.  

What is Desirable?  

One indication of a mature democracy is that people should not feel or experience a major calamity or difference, whatever the party that comes into power after an election. However, this should be understood or achieved in a positive sense, but not in a negative manner. If there is no difference in corruption or abuse, or repression, for example, whoever comes into power, that is negative. If there is no major worsening or cuts in welfare, economic benefits or people’s security or freedom, whatever the governmental change, that is positive. 

What could still be there in such a situation at election between political parties and contestants, allowing the people to make rational choices and decisions, are policy differences between them on how to improve such an equilibrium for gradual and progressive changes in the economy, polity and society. People should benefit ultimately. This is what in place for example in countries like Australia. In such countries of democratic maturity, there is much ‘give and take’ between political parties and leaders , and also ‘bipartisan’ initiatives and policies. 

However, Sri Lanka is still far from achieving such a situation, although not completely hopeless, in my opinion. As a result, there are still major stakes or risks at elections, and these have to be assessed without much exaggeration or undue alarm in voting and selecting candidates to vote. 

What is at Stake? 

I have already explained in an uncertain manner that, if GR is elected, there is much at stake in terms of democracy, personal liberties, independence of the judiciary and independence of other state/public services and commissions. I have expressed so by analyzing his so-called vision (“Gotabaya Rajapaksa at Viyathmaga: Vision with an Authoritarian Zeal,” Colombo Telegraph, 16 September). This was appreciatively translated into Sinhala by Gamini Viyangoda or their outfit ‘Yahapalanaya 2015.’ Unfortunately, the Island newspaper did not publish the original in English, although it was sent to them straightaway.  

This cautioning was made not only because of Gotabaya Rajapaksa per se, but because of his family oligarchy and archaic and rightwing cum communalist groups behind him. At GR’s inaugural campaign rally at Anuradhapura, he repeatedly used the term ‘Rajapaksa-Veru’ to mean ‘the nobles of Rajapaksa family’ several times. 

It is unfortunate that the traditional left parties (the LSSP, CP and also MEP) are still with this GR, on the basis of the obsolete theory of anti-UNP or anti-imperialist (American) struggle. They have to realize however that they are supporting a person who has just ‘abandoned’ his American citizenship. He is still maintaining his links and contacts. There should be some efforts therefore to win over the rank and file of these left parties as their leaders are just impossible morons. Who should undertake this task is the question? It is on more or less the same ‘theory’ that the democratic wing of the SLFP also has joined the GR’s campaign, although President Sirisena has opted to remain independent.       

Different Options? 

However, in my opinion, even if GR wins the election, the people and the political parties should be able to work within the democratic framework and parliamentary system. It would be a terrible mistake to advocate ‘people’s power’ or ‘extra-parliamentary action’ under such a situation that might give an excuse for him (GR) and others to suppress the opposition and democratic initiatives. That is another possible future stake. The JVP could be extremely vulnerable and be careful. Therefore, the best option for the democratic forces is to consolidate and consider all the possibilities and work out a strategy to defeat GR at election. This is  still not too late even after the Elpitiya local government election results. 

This also does not mean that the UNP or the present National Democratic Front (NDF) is/was all hunky-dory and all policies and practices of the Rajapaksas are/were wrong and should be rejected or condemned altogether. Most of the matters in relation to democracy and elections are of relative merits, but in addition in the case of Sri Lanka at present there could be much at stake for democracy itself, if GR wins the forthcoming election. Therefore, he should best be defeated on a policy and a strategic basis. 

Sajith as a Reasonable Option? 

Although the delay in selecting the UNP/NDF candidate, Sajith Premadasa, did create much uncertainty and confusion within the democratic or the anti-Rajapaksa camp, after the selection, there appears much progress in his campaign and in the campaign for the defense of democracy. The inaugural rally at Galle Face on 10 October is partial testimony to this trend. The four rallies that SP mobilized prior to that selection, were also testimony to his internal strength within the UNP constituency. 

The best comparison between the two main candidates came from Harin Fernando at the Bulathsinhala rally. 52 and 70; 25 and 0, he said. The first comparison was about the age and the second about the political experience. Gotabaya may be a good soldier or even a good Secretary of Defense, but could he be a good President? The most distasteful in terms of democracy is that he was nominated almost unilaterally by his brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa, from the SLPP which was formed by his other brother, Basil Rajapaksa, almost completely destroying a good democratic party, the SLFP. Sri Lanka undoubtedly deserves something better than an archaic family rule in this 21st century. 

It is difficult to give a first-rate character certificate to Sajith Premadasa or anyone in politics in Sri Lanka. Maithripala Sirisena is a recent unsuccessful (flunked) example. However Sajith’s age and background are some promising factors. He does not need to follow completely his father’s footsteps, intermixed with both positives and negatives during a difficult era. However, perhaps R. Premadasa’s past roots in the Ceylon Labour Party or Sri Sucharitha Movement seem to have given some populist traits to Sajith Premadasa. 

There is a possibility of Sajith Premadasa modernizing the policies of the UNP, giving priority to the national economy and the country’s defense and overhauling the leadership structures to utilize the young talents without discarding altogether the appropriate wisdom of old leaders like Ranil Wickremasinghe. At the Bulathsinhala rally he said ‘Sri Lanka First.’ At the same time he should emphasize ‘People First.’ 

Three Requirements? 

Still there are several requirements if SP is to win and GR to be defeated. The first requirement is the NDF coming to a proper understanding with the TNA and other Northern Tamil parties as much as possible. (The SLMC and hill country Tamil parties are already within the NDF). This task could be given to Ranil Wickremesinghe and his services would be much required in a realistic manner, but not in an impractical fashion. The TNA and its constituents also should understand that a new constitution or extensive devolution requires bi-partisan consensus first in Parliament and then for a referendum. Therefore the strategy or the plan should be gradual, and defeating GR is the necessary immediate step. 

The second requirement is still or again to approach the SLFP although the party has already agreed, though reluctantly, to support GR but not Pohottuwa as such. The stance is confusing and not clear. Or the approach this time could be to the UPFA. As the Elpitiya election results show, the UPFA has an independent constituency different to the SLPP which has obtained 12.7% of the popular vote. Although Premadasa met Sirisena in seeking some understanding or support leading to his nominations, those efforts were not conducted in a proper manner. The internal strife within the UNP at that time, and resistance to the SLFP within the UNP could be some reasons for the unsuccess. However, the situation has changed now. Approaching the UPFA could be assigned perhaps to a person like Champika Ranawaka on behalf of the NDF. There is a strong rank and file movement called ‘Protect SLFP’ that could be easily approached. 

In 2015, Chandrika Kumaratunga played a decisive role in creating conditions for political change in uncertain manner, although later those became largely derailed. She should not be left idling this time, perhaps more important than 2015 in terms of defending democracy. She should be drawn into approaching the SLFP or the UPFA this time also. If the SLFP could withdraw support to GR, in some measure, it would be a decisive turn of the election situation and mood. The SLFP does not have any future with the SLPP or Rajapaksa family.       

The third requirement is to approach the third party candidates like Anura Kumara Dissanayake or Mahesh Senanayake and their organizations to commit themselves for the Second Preference in uncertain manner in defense of democracy and in preventing GR coming into power. GR as President would be worse than MR as President. The JVP and the Jathika Jana Balawegaya (National People’s Drive) have completed a marvelous mission so far in highlighting the key national issues, people’s priorities and public policy changes that are required in the country. The NDF and Sajith Premadasa should take note of them for the future. 

As the Elpitiya election results also reveal, although the JVP is strong in policies and determination, the votes that they can muster at the moment could be limited. If Anura Kumara could withdraw from the contest and extend support to the National Democratic Front (and not necessarily to SP or the UNP) or the democratic cause in general that could be a decisive change of events. They have done such tactical maneuvers in the past, and they can do it even at present.     

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Latest comments

  • 46
    12

    Only way to defeat Gota is
    1) to do a deal with JVP. If SP get second preference vote from JVP, SP can win. So, that is a good way to make it possible. 60% of stupid Sinhalese love Gota. They do not care about freedom, liberty, or corruption of Rajapaksa family or any bad deeds of Gota. They do not care about murders/ white vans. or any of these crimes. some racist sinhalese are in love with Gota.

    • 8
      11

      lankan,
      *
      Best is that JVP gets 2nd preferrence vote from Gota. Sounds impossible, but as majority wants country unity, it might go that way.
      *
      One loved the idea of a Gotabaya presidency at first. Country unity will surely be secured. Yet one wonders if the Rajapaksa success story was due to entirely the China connexion. Without that connexion, it will be a UNP-type capitalism. Will Gota be able to control the Indians and Saudis and their associated Lankan minorities on the fat loans given by them for our country development? Yet he is better than the UNP (although one crosses fingers for the JVP win).

      • 12
        3

        sorry to say. i do not like Chinese way of helping us. They impose loan on us. They impose on us unethical loans. They impose on us unsustainable development. I’m very sorry to say that in 20 years, the beauty, nature, ecology, and environment of Sri Lanka will be damaged with all Chinese projects. I’m sorry that today China has done more damage to our wildlife, plantation, rivers and nature than any European nations. I’m sorry that MR and Gota used their power to do what they want not what our Lankan economists, environmentalists, scientists tell them. No loyal Sri Lankan academic will support some of these Chinese projects. Mattala air port alone has done a lot of damage to our animal world. It is not MR and his family who are going to suffer but next generation of Sri Lankan children. I do not think these politicians will leave any thing from nature for next generation. I do not like at all Gota policy on this matter. MR has been good for sometime. but his cohort are bad. so bad. thugs. so, I’m not happy with UNP leadership too. After Lalith and Gamini. UNP did not produce good leaders. But AKD is good but Sinhalese do not like him. I’m left out without any option to vote. God knows when we will have a good leader.????/

    • 5
      1

      If that’s what they want isn’t that democracy? or do you have a different interpretation of democracy? that opinion that you hold is superior to what’s being held by the majority?

  • 19
    5

    It is an absolute shame that the

    It is an absolute shame that the LSSP and the CP should support Gotabahaya. The joker Shivajilingam also contesting will will only enhance Gotabhaya’s chances if any. Bensen

  • 19
    4

    Sri Lankans never learn from past lessons.

    The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result – Albert Einstein

    • 10
      6

      Tara, the only eacape from the worm-hole is a JVP win.

    • 0
      0

      Like Sivajilingam

      • 0
        0

        Yes, together with him. JVP means country unity of all racrs + healthy building up of our own Lankan capital/money.

        • 0
          0

          …races*

  • 10
    26

    It is quite fascinating to read the length these guys would go to subvert people’s will. First they tried hard to prevent the right to people’s choice by preventing Gota’s candidacy (they may still achieve it). In so many words they are accepting that Gota will take the majority of votes in the first round (even if in the event he fails to take 50%+). Now they are talking about how to turn it back. They are not concerned how unstable the country would be if the will of the majority is robbed by some scheme. Yet they are the loudest in “defending” democracy. Therefore it is very important to defeat these anti democratic wolves in sheep clothes decisively like demonstrated by Elpitiya voters. The nationalist, populist camp should maximise the contradictions within the anti democratic, reactionary camp (who by the way are the real champions of SOFA, ACSA and the state weakening constitution) and continue to sow discord to defeat any underhand scheming become possible. Though on the surface it looks hunky dory, there are significant fissures between Sajith and Ranil camps. Ranil camp knows that Sajith camp will not abide by any agreement they made if Sajith wins. So they should maximise the fissures and create uncertainty/confusion within the ranks and allies.

    • 2
      2

      Hela
      “They are not concerned how unstable the country would be if the will of the majority is robbed by some scheme. “
      This is precisely what I am trying to hammer into the heads minority political buffoons. Above all Muslims should realise this. At this point in time , after Wahabi attack on the Sinhalese they need the goodwill of ALL the Sinhalese. Ganging up with -50% of the Sinhalese against the +50% of the Sinhalese is commiting Hara Hara Kiri.

      Soma

      • 2
        2

        Dear Soma,
        So you’re threatening minority with Hara Kiri, if we do not vote for Gota. See this is the type of people we live with even before Gota’s political fate is not yet decided.

        My dear, 1983 has gone long ago. If you people or your future President will not behave according to the rule then you’re officially declaring Tamil Ealam, not by internal force but foreign one. What is your choice, a dictator or two countries of an Island.

        • 3
          1

          Correction,

          A dictator and two counties of an Island? Or united Sri Lanka and one leader like AKD

          • 0
            0

            “A dictator and two counties of an Island?”
            I am the only Sinhalese who supports a SEPARATE Homeland for ALL Tamil speaking people irrespective of their religion, caste or the date of arrival.

            Soma

        • 0
          0

          Mr Ahmed
          ‘Hara Kiri’ is a self imposed damage. Not an external threat.
          Muslims DO need the goodwill of ALL Sinhalese. If I were a Muslim leader conscious of the welfare of his community I would ask my people to freely vote between the major parties, JVP and Muslim Congress. Do not extend en block support for one party as ‘Muslims’. You are commiting Hara Kiri.

          Soma

  • 23
    9

    Tamil / Muslim candidates? Obviously they have been planted by the MR mafia (possibly money would have changed hands – anything is possible with the Rajapaksa clan) to break the votes of the UNF candidate (now that there is no possibility of bribing anyone to stop those communities from voting as happened in 2005). Any right thinking person can see through that ploy as there is absolutely no possibility of a non Sinhala Buddhist to become the President of this country. But the ultimate winner needs the votes of the minority communities (Tamils, Muslims, Christians). It is SP who is best placed to obtain those votes.

    Wasn’t this writer involved in conferring doctorates to MR and NGR? if so, what credibility does he have? Most human beings have ulterior motives in most of their actions (words and deeds). So one needs to learn to analyse and recognise those motives before coming to conclusions or making assessments.

    If NGR is elected, it will be disaster for Sri Lanka as he is most unsuitable to lead the Nation.

  • 11
    6

    At the LGE 2018, the following preferences were obtained :

    Pohottuwa 40%
    UNF 29%
    UPFA/SLFP 12%
    JVP 06%
    TNA 03%
    Other 09%

    If Pohottuwa succeeds in attracting at least 75% of the UPFA/SLFP voters, it has an excellent chance of exceeding the magic figure of 50%
    Even if Sajith wins the support of ALL the other voters (except the JVP’s 6%), he will only achieve a score of around 45%

    Is it still possible to defeat GR ?

    • 5
      4

      UNP knows it. It is a phycologcal trick to show up fake confidence. The funniest spectacle of all is even rat size JVP is trying to match up with the elephant. Hoo!

      Soma

      • 1
        0

        somass

        If JVP was/is rat sized why people got scared, panicked, killed and got killed?
        So Gota wasn’t responsible for dead squad killings between 1987 and 1991 and ran away to India first and then to USA while his brother being Human Rights campaigner during that period spending some time in Geneva.

        You are blessed with selective memory.

  • 5
    3

    TRUE! In a given election the choice of the voter is restricted to the nominees or candidates of the election. We are concerned, like betting for a horse that is likely to win, as to who would win. Our wishful thinking is about the favorite and the appealing candidate to us. Like a prize fool I went on that basis, took the trouble to walk to the polling and casted my vote for the MY3 + RW combine. From my perspective both of them let me down very badly. Even in the light of the local government elections, they did not mend their ways. Hence I have to be very circumspect of the choice before me. My prime criteria is whether any given candidate has any respect to life. I am made to understand of the horrific of some during the 1988 – 1990 insurgency and therefore completely rule out any candidate with a military background. Another party which appear to play very well within the democratic framework and having being good whistleblowers seem attractive but they have blood on their hands, again the episodes of 1988 – 1990. I don’t buy their story that they were acting in self defense in the wake of an onslaught. Another guy, is like his father who was the author of the white van culture and tyre pyres. He cannot tolerate a different opinion and difficult questions. The cat came out of the bag when he compared his mouth with that of Lord Buddha, though later apologized, it reveals that his word is law and infallible. Loss of life is possible and an Australian who was a Sri Lankan too confirmed his fears in these columns. The only thing that I can do is to be prepared for a dark age.

  • 12
    6

    ‘Still possible to defeat GR’:
    What this caption suggests is that Gotabhaya Rajapaksa has already won the race.
    Anti-GR camp has acknowledged it and is looking for every possible avenue to concoct a coup to defeat him which is highly unlikely now.

  • 11
    8

    look at all these people jumping up and down trying to convince themselves that GR is not going to win and that Sajith is nothing short of a provincial buffoon.
    Let me spell this out GR got 70% of the Elipitya vote, that is 3% more than what MR got 2010. Let that sink in nice and slow. Then, look at past voting trends and you will see that Elpitiya voting patterns are typical of most rural sinhalese villages. That 70% is gonna get repeated all over rural Sri Lanka.
    Also, TNA is understandably very reluctant to back Sajith, the last i heard Sumandiran wants to meet MR and GR. Bloody hilarious. Even if TNA does back Sajith, which i think it eventually will, Northern Tamils will never again be eager to vote for a southern politician promising sun shine and rainbows. Infact, Douglas Devananda is on the rise in the North because at least he helped the poor people in the north economically. Something which Vigneshwaran and the TNA utterly failed at. To add to this, CWC just backed GR thats another 150K votes at least. On top of that Murali is campaigning in the upcountry in earnest. UNP will get the majority of tamil votes but not an overwhelming majority, not the kind of numbers to offset the losses from the Sinhalese heartland.
    And finally, Sinhalese Catholics will not back a UNP candidate this time. Not after how Ranil fucked them over when they needed justice the most.
    You add all these up, Sajith is screwed. he was screwed from the beginning. its just that being an arrogant provincial buffoon, the man never realised it. I mean look at his image in the media. He has successfully usurped MS as the joker of SL politics. Which is probably his greatest achievement to date.

  • 5
    7

    Another aspirant Aparekke Punnananda Thero is on bail for sexually assaulting novice monks. GR faces several charges of fiscal misrepresentation, allowing his Soldiers to commit murder, rape civilian captives etc etc.
    Aparekke was an MP of the then ‘Monks Only’ JHU. GR has never been an MP,.
    Laksiri, please compare the two

  • 6
    4

    Dr. Laksiri: Your “Third Proposal” to defeat GR by SP is not only “Hilarious” ; but say the least is “STUPID”. Can or Will , in your deep sleep dreams, AKD of NPP will be “Allowed” to negotiate and agree on a “Common Platform” with SP? Those organizations called “DNF” represented by SP and NPP represented by AKD are like two railway lines, that never, ever “MEET” or made to meet. Please note, I am not talking of “JVP” but of that “NPP” . Listen to the “1st Segment” of the NPP dialogue now available in social media. Listen to the questions put to the “Three Representatives” of the NPP. and what they “SAY”. If you did, you will never come up with this “3rd Proposal”, unless, of course you have a “Hidden Agenda”(Personal) like that of another “Dr” DJ. In my opinion, GR, of SLPP/SLFP must NOT be defeated by SP of UNP/DNF but ONLY by NPP representative AKD, if the country is to be made “WHAT IT SHOULD BE”.

  • 2
    3

    Ethiopian leader has won Nobel Peace Prize for his pursuit of democratic reform and peacemaking with Eritreans formerly ending 20 year conflict. Srisena had missed an opportunity make a bold move to settle the civil conflict in the country and it appears the new contenders for his job too are not showing any interest either.

  • 11
    6

    It is a thousand pity that the Sinhalese who constitute 75% of the population cannot find a presidential candidate outside the Rajapaksa family. Mahinda dynasty is replicating what the royals did anointing their siblings as kings and queens in the past. When Gotabaya nomination came under a cloud because of pending court cases the choice was Chamal Rajapaksa.
    Gotabaya instead of fighting the war to the finish, he quietly retired from the army in 1998 and migrated to the US in search of greener pastures. He took US citizenship severing his ties with Sri Lanka. In 2005 he obtained duel citizenship. Only in 2019, he renounced his US citizenship. This speaks volumes about his ‘patriotism’!
    Gotabaya has announced that he will win the elections on Sinhalese – Buddhists votes alone. It will be a sad day that a person of that mentality gets elected as president on November 16, 2019!
    During his tenure as Defence Secretary 25 media personnel were killed, 23 out of 25 happened to be Tamils. He banned the singing of National Anthem in Tamil. He bundled more than 350 Tamils living in lodges in Colombo into CTB buses and sent them to Jaffna, Trincomalee and Batticaloa!
    Now he proclaims on the public platform he will release all military personnel first thing on the morning of November 17th – that includes Navy intelligence personnel involved in abducting 11 Tamil students from Colombo and suburbs between 2007-2008!
    Gotabaya gave orders to shoot all LTTE leaders/cadres who surrendered to the 58th Divisional army at Vadduvakal on 18th May 2009! It is cowardice on the part of Gotabaya to deny the cowardly massacre of Tamil surrendees. It is a mystery how he can go to sleep peacefully with Tamil blood dripping from his hands!

    • 3
      4

      Thanga,
      There are several other candidates out of the R-family, qualified for the post; but it is one of the Rajapaksas who is the most favored; out of the Favored, Gotabhaya is the most qualified. Why is this?
      The general public have a strong belief that they did something they should not have done at the last presidential election of 2015. You know what it is. This time they want to correct the ‘mistake’ they had committed for unknown reasons. 50 million votes MR got for the Pohottuwa at the last local council elections are direct result of this ‘correctional – I’m sorry sir – mindset’.
      Very few of those who make comments here have understood this.
      In addition to this block of solid 50 million votes, Gotabhaya now has another 14 million from the SLFP and another few lakhs of votes from upcountry Tamils and also from Batti Tamils due to certain recent developments in the political arena. (I mean due to Thonda’s support and Vilayendran of TNA’s support).
      Therefore, Gotabhaya now has solid 64+ million votes in his pocket, and I don’t think anybody could change this trend before the D-day.
      As I predicted about the Elpitiya election, if this trend continues, it will be a clean sweep for Gotabhaya Rajapaksa and he will definitely be Sri Lanka’s next Executive President.

  • 7
    4

    He did not spare Lasantha Wickrematunga, editor of Sunday Leader and Wasim Thajudeen a rugby player who played with Roshsitha Rajapaksa. Wickrematunga daughter Ahimsa has filed a case in the US District Court in California alleging Gotabaya instigated and authorised the extrajudicial killing of her father.
    What about financial impropriety? Basil Rajapaksa built a luxury villa on a 6.5 ha (16 acres) of land in Malwana at a cost of Rs.240 million but disowned it when Police wanted to investigate the ownership of the house. Basil disowned the house and the property! That was a clever subterfuge, since If he owns up, then he will have to explain the source of the funds.
    Gotabaya Gotabaya along with six others have been charged for alleged misappropriation of Rs.48.5 million being balance amount due to Land Reclaiming and Construction Authority. This amount is the balance owing to LRCA in respect of the construction of the D.A Rajapaksa Memorial at Medamulana, Weerapitiya. The total expenditure was Rs. 81.3 million.

  • 4
    7

    “Still there are several requirements if SP is to win and GR to be defeated. The first requirement is the NDF coming to a proper understanding with the TNA and other Northern Tamil parties as much as possible. (The SLMC and hill country Tamil parties are already within the NDF)…
    .
    This is an open challenge to the majority of Sinhalese by minority of Sinhalese. It says ” OK we the UNP admit that majority of the Sinhalese are not with us but we shall compensate that shortfall by agreeing with minorities for their demands, be they reasonable or unreasonable. That way will make the technical requirement of 50%+1 and grab the power somehow. “
    .
    Now minority political masters ( particularly the Muslims and Estate Tamils) should realise, not only the utter stupidity but the utter danger that lies behind by partaking in this strategy. How on earth (I mean this piece of earth called Sri Lanka which is a small, isolated island) they expect to live in peace and ammity with the Sinhalese by antagonizing majority of them which far exceeds the total minority numbers put together.
    .
    If all minorities are going to vote en bloc for one side Sinhalese should vote for the other.
    .
    PRESIDENT OF THIS COUNTRY SHOULD HAVE THE CONSENT OF THE MAJORITY OF THE SINHALESE FOR THE GOOD OF THE MINORITIES.

    Soma
    (If the country is to be saved from being broken into Federal blocks vote for Gotabhaya Rajapaksa.)

  • 4
    6

    Now what do those big mouth Civies and Dollar NGOs say about abolishion of EP?

    Soma

    • 2
      0

      somass

      It’s been almost a year since the failed coup took place.
      The second day of coup Namal said to us he was going to visit all Tamil Detainees held in prisons (some were more than 10 years) without being charged. How many prisoners did he visit? He also promised he would ask his dadda to campaign for the release of all those Tamil detainees. Now tell us how much time has the Dadda spend on these matters?

      When do you recon Duminda Silva is going to be released?

      • 0
        0

        NV
        I am also supportive of releasing all ‘LTTE suspects in long detention without trial’. You guys have thrown a spanner in the works by calling them ‘political prisoners’.

        Soma

  • 6
    5

    Let’s be honest there is no way GOTA can be defeated now. Do the maths then you can see that. UNP+JVP+TNA+CMC+etc << POHOTUWA. GOTA has the momentum now. even though Elpitiya election was a really small one , people will have a good at it.

  • 10
    5

    What a disaster for sl if GR becomes president. Firstly he is not qualified to hold this position. GR, please declare your educational qualifications. Not with the fake derana news paper pl.we know this low life derana supports u and publish fake news. Next you have no experience as a politician. We all know u r corrupt, a murderer, a torturer, an arrogant sob who does not tolerate dissent, a dictator who has army and police scumbags supporting u as well as all the crooked businessmen. Your only qualification is that u r a scoundrel who went to usa in fear that the ltte might kill u. U have no vision or economic skills to run the country. You have plundered our money to build a monument for yor long dead father who no one has heard of, made commissions on purchase of defence equipment and planes, abducted and tortured innocent people and journalists, protected murderers like Duminda and racist crooked vermin monks like gnasara. God help sl if gr wins.

  • 2
    3

    Even the Sea of Green Heads in Galle Face wouldn’t have a clue of what this dude is on about those choices of Goodness in Yahapalana Democracy Candidates.
    May be I am wrong.

    I witnessed with my own eyes the quality of the Sajith Supporters who were bused in to Colombo from far away places like Karapitiya , Karandeniya , Katugastota , and Kurunegala.

    Unless they are pumped up with passion for Democracy and specially Keselwatta Kid’s brand of Democracy , they wouldn’t sit in those tattered Old CTB Leylands, packed like Mackeral in 28 -30 Degree Heat without A/Cs.

    Unlike in Dr Laksiri’s Land ,I believe our Punters can put a X against Keslwatta Kid or Nandasena.
    Suppose if they put another X to JVP Prince because of their passion for democratic values, will it be counted as a an additional vote for Keselwatta Kid at the second count to distribute the preferences?.

  • 7
    9

    Definitely Gotabaya will be defeated by Mr. Sajith Premadasa.
    No doubt at all.

    Only henchmen are voting for Gotabaya.
    Multitude of people are voting for Mr. Sajith Premadasa.
    Young learder…..Not corrupted….Not a murderer…Has not intimidated any journalist in his life.
    Has not sent any white van for abduction.
    Millions of people know that Mr. Sajith Premadasa.

    • 3
      3

      See you on 17 Nov..

      Soma

      • 0
        2

        somass

        “See you on 17 Nov..”

        Where?
        Are you suspecting the beginning of another dark ages?
        Oh dear now I need to stock some oil, food stuff, medicine, candle sticks, ……

        • 2
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          Orders you received during the last days at Nandikadal?

          Soma

    • 0
      0

      Then you wake up and realized that you were dreaming….

    • 0
      0

      Dear Saman,
      .
      I wish there were a complete change in the politics of Sri Lanka, the way that Nagananda, for instance, was advocating. However, he is not among those whose nominations were accepted (he had turned up at the Rajagirya Office of the EC, on nomination day, knowing that he couldn’t get nominated). I had actually met Naga for a few minutes in his office, but can’t say that I “know” him. However, I have been in close touch with his campaign. He is now preparing to wage war on the Elections Commission. What’s the point?
      .
      Your comment I find pointless. I selected it as the one which is the most meaningless! Yes, if all else fails, then I’d prefer Sajith to Gota. But we’re not going to get there by asserting various things without substantiating the way that you do. And all this in English. I may well be the only person to even read your comment a day after the article appeared.
      .
      Contrast with what this article asserts:
      .
      https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/presidential-election-dont-just-sit-there-do-something/
      .
      There is a multiplicity of reasons why our voters just don’t think before they vote – and all who are able, do vote! I’m not going to say anymore, but I will make another comment right now, which will get placed way below this reply to you.

      • 1
        0

        Nagananda has collected over LKR 30 Mil from wel wishers, specially the ones who are domiciled in the West particularly Down Under…
        Podi Hamuduruwo in Kotuwa Temple wants to know what is going to happen to that money.
        Kotuwe Hamduruwo also wants to know how come this Eagle Eagle didn’t know his own legal problem before fronting up to pay the Deposit…,=

        I like Podihamuduruwo..

        • 1
          0

          Dear Mr Sumanasekera,
          .
          You can make the assertion, but I don’t believe it.
          .
          Nagananda is a stubborn man; not really a Legal Eagle.
          .
          I can’t say that I know “all about him”, but I’ve given more thought to his campaign than the 90% of voters would have before they actually cast their ballots next month. This comment represents my assessment of a few facts.
          .
          He had known the problems he faced in becoming a candidate, but he’s much too self-centred and that is doing harm to many who supported him.
          .
          But unlike you, he’s totally honest.

          • 0
            0

            Sinhala – Man,

            Excuse me Sir, Please don’t compare me with those Politikkas, who either collect Ruppiahs from the Public Purse or Greenbacks from NGOs..

            I have the best Finance Brains in the West looking after my investments and paying me enough returns to play Golf and help rum my charities in Lankawe as well.

            Believe it or not even Nagananda’s LKR 30 Mil is no big deal for me..

  • 0
    0

    TNA seems to be favoring Old Brother Prince. Vaalaiththodam ruled out any deals with TNA. Ranil saved other Brother Prince. Ranil made sure he had loopholes in 19A to stand for election. Ranil probably wants him to win the election. So Ranil may wish TNA if they vote for Slap Party.

    • 0
      0

      Nagananda has collected over LKR 30 Mil from wel wishers, specially the ones who are domiciled in the West particularly Down Under…
      Podi Hamuduruwo in Kotuwa Temple wants to know what is going to happen to that money.
      Kotuwe Hamduruwo also wants to know how come this Eagle Eagle didn’t know his own legal problem before fronting up to pay the Deposit…,=

      I like Podihamuduruwo..

    • 2
      0

      Mally,

      Now you are talking.
      If the UNP had the slightest chance, Dr Ranil would have never let go this last opportunity.

      Now Dr Ranil not only has the easiest path to not only get rid of that blotch , Keselwatta Kid from his mighty UNP , but also to make the UNP Elite , Anglican and Vellala Faction rule supreme with him as the Leader until he carcks it..

      Can Sampathar get his Eelaam from Slap Party?..

  • 5
    2

    Laksri

    STILL POSSIBLE TO BEAT GOTHA:

    Another silly article like the previous one when you suggesed that Civil Society was wrong to take Gothas case to Court and let the people be Judge and Jury for passport fraud whch amounted to you saying every time a plane lands at Kattunayake let the people decide who should be allowed in .

    We all know you love the Paksas and making predictions based on ASSUMPTIONS. No doubt the Elpitiya election was a Snapshot and watershed moment in the Sri Lankan history not only for its impact on the upcoming election but also the stupidity of the Election Commissioner releasing it on the day of the Nominations or close to it.

    Can Gotha be beaten not a chance with all the apparatus, institution and more importantly a majority racist electorate. Let me tell you what I mean

    1) Judicary are falling behind Gotha not only anticipating his vicory but making decisions out of fear but also in admiration.
    2) Racist electorate which includes “Lasksri”
    3) I was saddned to read a recent piece of news that two LTTE activists Husband & Wife were caight with Explosives. Why I say saddened is because this is the Criminal Shavendra who was banned by the UN doing his bit for Gotha and canvassing. There can only be two possibilities how they could have had the explosives.
    a) In post war Sri Lanka with army everywhere it is not possible for any Tamil to have or bring in arms other than the ones PLANTED by the inteligence on Vulnerable Tamils and sacrifice them for Gotha to get elected. OR
    2) RAW rearming LTTE as Mrs. Gandhi.did and if that is the case signs are “OMINOUS”

    We are passing through Turbulence and Citizens FASTEN your seat belts.

    India is the key to keep Gotha under Check as India owns the “FREEHOLD ” Of Sri Lanka. Last time MR compained that RAW meddled in the electins and caused his downfall. History might be about to repeat.

  • 0
    0

    First of all Unp wants to know they only have 2.4 million sihalese votes while mahindas slfp has 6 million sihalese votes as their block votes. There will be 104 lacks sihalase votes probably cast in 2019 elections and 26 lacks of minority vote will cast. if unp took 21 lacks(81%) of minoriry votes they need another 44 lacks of sinhalese votes to come to the 50% margin. they already have 24 lacks sihalese votes so they need another 20 lacks of sinhalese votes. Sihalese votes divide as Mahindas Slfp 60 lacks, Unp 24 lacks ,Jvp 7 lacks, maithrees slfp 3 lacks and 9 lacks of floating votes. In sajith case if he wants to get that 2 million sinhalese votes he need 100% of jvps vote bank, 100% of maithrees slfp vote base and 90% of floating votes. It is is an imposible task since Jvp is contesting alone, slfp supports gota and gota will defeinetely get at least of 5 lacks of floating votes.In gotas case he already has 6 million block votes and can get 4 lacks(15%)of minority votes at least and 2 lacks (75 %) of slfp votes and 50% of sinhala floating votes. that means 71 lacks votes with 55%. In sajith case he can get 24 lacks of unp votes and 21 lacks of minority votes (80%) and 1 lack of slfp votes and atleast 4 lacks of floating votes maximum ( if he is not make any foolish statements) that means 50 lacks maximum percentage wise 38%. the simple truth that taught by the past election results is if anti mahinda votes got divided in to a small parties like UNP, JVP, and others the huge party like mahindas slfp will win the election with huge margin. Unp made a huge mistake that appointing sajith as their candidadte with out a support of JVP, and SLFP.

  • 0
    2

    If 70% of majority Sinhalese vote for Gota he wins with his hands down and we all have to accept and bow our heads to democracy.
    However he will at best get 50% of Sinhalese votes and some minority votes from upcountry Tamils. Then he will end up with 0.5 X 70 + 6 ( say) = 41% falling short of required winning margin of 50%.
    If Sajith gets 30% of majority Sinhalese and 20% minority Tamil and Muslim votes he will end up with 0.3X70 + 20 = 41%.
    If all other candidates including JVP get balance 18% and the winner will be most certainly decided by second preference votes.
    Therefore it is Paramount that both Gota and Sajith make electoral pact with other candidates including JVP to pass winning margin.
    May the better team win.

  • 0
    0

    Dear Prof. Laksiri Fernando,
    .
    I wish we could sweep away all the corruption in Sri Lanka.
    With this in mind, I went so far as to flirt with Nagananda. However, what is lacking is sincerity in facing upto realities.
    .
    Professor, over-all this article is bold, honest, and timely, although it seems a departure from the line you usually take. However, there are details which don’t make sense. For instance, you rejoice that “SLPP which has obtained 12.7% of the popular vote”. MaRa is more astute than that. He had pointed out that this election was fought on nominations made for January 10th, 2018. Many votes may have been “personal” to popular individuals.
    .
    The Preferential System is a donnée for this election. How many know about it? Kumar David had an article on it and the comments amounted to thorough discussion – in English. Translating is very difficult, but he’s done the – getting a Sinhala translation done:
    .
    https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/kumar-david-12-october-2019/
    .
    The sole comment sees me “conscious of my inadequacies. Mahinda Deshapriya can do his own explanation of the system:
    .
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mrz6RpzDaa4
    .
    I hope these London results help:
    .
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_mayoral_elections
    .
    Ïf you are sincere, why don’t you get that article placed where it can actually be seen by Sinhala-readers? Despite my pseudonym, I cannot write all that in Sinhala, nor is my computer equipped for that purpose. I’m sure that you have the contacts to get it done.
    .
    Plenty of analysis has been done. The people will never bother to look at it:
    .
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Sri_Lankan_presidential_election
    .
    Who came third? Another guy named Sirisena. Fourth? Another Namal Rajapaksa, who is contesting again next month.
    .
    You seem bent on confusing the reader. I’ve done what I could to educate people.

  • 3
    0

    UNP will not win any election in the future as long as Ranil, mongal and Chandrika with Sajith ,

  • 0
    0

    The UNP alternative Presidential candidature of Sajith Premadasa by replace of Wickamasinghe of Ranil clan of feudal generation of that JRJ -UNP.
    Meanwhile UNP-JRJ that has family roots gone to Muslim inheritance by Muslim decadence by South …Indians origin.
    Nation of Sri Lanka has gradually lost that politically sovereignty under JRJ -UNP since 1977 ….. After successful mode of operand i by being President Ranasiaghe Premadasa 1988 that country has lost 700,00 youth killed mass scale. It was initiative was projected by JRJ-UNP handed over to that R.Premadasa regime of UNP’s. …until 1993 May 1st.
    The Nowadays Sajith Premadasa to become President candidature by blessing christen influence of Wickasinghe clan ; but that daily loosing majority right thinking of voters…citizens of Islanders .
    Hence Sajith has shown politically immaturity and having right- wing childless mentality in politically.
    There is the way UNP has change take place under Sajith in old alliances of
    anti-Establishment in New form of terrorism by ex-Army Commander for state apparatus/ That State -terrorism has come into being after 16 November 2019?
    By and large that Sajith P….is seems to be pro -TNA, JVP, Muslim terrorist and right-wing candidature and as well as Pro-western agent .

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