19 September, 2019

Blog

The Birth Of A Movement

By Kumar David

Prof. Kumar David

I marched in the 1963 United Left Front May Day demonstration and was at the Galle Face rally jointly chaired by NM, Dr Wicks and Philip. I was also at the 18 August 2019 Galle Face rally which launched the national People’s Power movement and named its presidential candidate. The latter drew about 150,000 people and was comparable in size. A political alternative has been born. More than 40 years after the 1977 election debacle left in tatters, finally a radical left-democratic option and mobilisation has emerged. This is not a bunch put together to prop up a JVP presidential candidate; it is an alliance of 30 self-thinking groups which have wholeheartedly thrown themselves into the task of building a radical, left-democratic third-force, untainted by corruption, as an alternative to the rotten two-party (UNP, SLFP/SLPP) farce. We are on the move; the structure has been formed and a national programme agreed at the broad level; now the task of fleshing it out with details and strategies.  

Received wisdom assiduously cultivate by the media is that both candidate-Gota and crown-prince Sajith have strong electoral positions. Their sponsors and promoters argue that their champion is a sure winner. The more I look at depth the more convinced I am that neither is true. Neither Sajith nor Gota will secure the requisite 50%+1 to circumvent second-choice counting. Gota is strong only in the Sinhala-Buddhist petty-bourgeois belt South and West of Colombo and the South coast. To draw out the village vote in the hinterland, the traditional blue base he is dependent on Mahinda and the old guard with whom he has not intermingled or interacted. As Defence Secretary he was an outsider not a true party man. The military ex-brass, his political Pretorian guard, could be a barrier between him and the true-blues.

Gota’s dual-nationality complication remains murky. His spokesmen avoid full-frontal disclosure. Fraud cases in domestic courts and murder, torture and human rights violation cases in American courts create more tension. The challenge on dual-nationality will be after nomination when someone goes to court; the Election’s Commission accepts nominations at face value. These are only complications. The big hurdle is that Tamils and Muslims to a man will not vote for him, and many Catholics, despite Malcolm Ranjit’s pro-Rajapaksa prancing, will avoid him. This leaves the near superhuman task of winning 50% from the remaining 70% if he is to be elected prior to second-preference tallying. 50/70 is 0.71, so he needs 71% of the Sinhala-Buddhist vote. I don’t see where my arithmetic is wrong so Gota has an impossible hill to climb, sans second-preference counting.

The popular notion is that Sajith is popular in the rural and suburban areas of the country. A Daily Mirror piece (‘Choosing Right Candidate for UNP’) by S. Samarasinghe is an eye-opener. 

The crux is that: (a) While Sajith is popular in the UNP base, his performance in pulling votes from outside the UNP has been appalling. In Hambantota a 40% UNP poll in 2001 declined to 29% in 2010, 10 years after Sajith became an MP. In the 2015 General Election, which the UNF won, Sajith managed to lose Hambantota District (HD) as organiser and polled fewer personal votes than Namal Rajapaksa. In the 2018 LG elections the Sajith-led UNP polled only 25.5% in HD. 

It is not my concern whether charmless-Ranil, clueless-Sajith or Janus-faced Karu is nominated. This brings me to my punch line. This time, for the first time, the game will go to second-preference tallying. If the third-force polls just 10% (all over the world they are doing much better), then if one of the main candidates is to secure more than 50% first-preferences the other will have to be pushed to below 40%. This is a very unlikely; too large a gap. A more rational early hypothesis at this time is that Gota and R-S-or-K will both poll in the mid-40s. Then the second-preferences of third-force voters will be the cliff-hanger. 

But far more important than election arithmetic is that like elsewhere in the world the third-force has emerged as a credible fighting force. Gota, Sajith or Ranil, in the coming years any right-wing regime will swing to ever greater use of repression, probably in that order of brutality. This is where the mobilisation of a third force is an indispensable safeguard on its road to becoming the alternative.

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Latest comments

  • 4
    5

    What are the POSSIBILITIES that JVP having to WIN the Presidential election to become President of Srilanka ?

    Can anyone eloborate the VOTES percentage JVP can have , if all Muslims, Tamils and chiristians , ( all minorities votes ) cast their votes to JVP ?

    • 7
      7

      Today we mark exactly 4 months after the Easter carnage and there should be a vigil at independence sq. but the USAID-EU funded Colombo NGOs that made memorializing and museums projects a big NGO business have forgotten this crime by the biggest Rogue State in the world against the people of Lanka.
      So too JVP’s AKD has forgotten the Easter Carnage for which we need a vigil every single month on the 21st to ensue that Sri lanka never forgets and lets the USA know that we are watching its SOF and criminal activities

      The Easter attacks in Sri Lanka were a double whammy. Economic Terrorism and the Weaponization of Ethno-religious identity politics to turn the country into blood bath by those who want to set up military bases in the Indian Ocean in Strategic Sri Lanka. The Economic Terrorism of the Easter attacks has been ignored by the JVP because AKD is as power hungry as US puppet Ranil and US citizen Gota.
      This is the sad truth about KD’s JVP mass movement – likely funded by the MCC and USAID to help us forget Easter Sunday!
      The US has a history of Economic Terrorism against may countries in the Middle East and Latin America and small islands all over the world, the worst being Chagos Islands

      • 7
        4

        KD and Dead left are trying to rise from the dead, but following the Washington Consensus!
        Dead left is gone with the wind!
        as long as JVP play constitutional games in the Cesspit parliament rather than addressing real problems like the crisis in Higher Education sector from which the JVP emberge, but has now abandoned to Aussie funded Frontline Socialist Party to benefit the Australian education system by destroying SL higher Ed annd sending student to Aussie unies

    • 4
      0

      I don’t know about how much support various groups have, but I’ve been giving a lot of thought to the system, although very much an amateur, and not a great mathematician.
      .
      To stand a chance of winning the Presidency itself, the JVP must climb into at least Second Place on the First Preferences. That is to say, they have to get more votes than one of the two generally expected winners – either Gota, or the UNP nominee. Therefore those who are really keen on a JVP victory, and who think it possible must give FIRST Preference to the JVP.
      .
      Thereafter, the SECOND and THIRD Preferences of all the defeated candidates will be examined to see if the ballot indicates a vote for the JVP. If so, they will be added to the JVP pile.
      .
      I fear that neither the SLPP nor the UNP will give much publicity to the existence of Preferences. However, given what is now almost hatred of most individuals for EITHER the Rajapaksas OR the UNP (I hope that there doesn’t appear to be ambiguity in that statement!) the supporters of the party that has now come third and lower ought to have given sufficient Preferences to the JVP for them to overtake the leader.
      .
      Rather unfair it may seem, but the FIRST and the THIRD Preference will carry equal weight. It may have been possible to build “weightage” into this system – making it even more confusing.
      .
      It is possible that I will give FIRST Preference to Nagananda Kodituwakku. I’m not a Marxist, but nor do I have any hatred of what old Karl wrote. Just not intelligent enough to understand it.
      .
      I’d welcome those who can improve on my clumsy explanation to do so!
      .

    • 9
      0

      The old calculation will not be valid in the next election. As there will be a shift of a significant shift of North, East, Estate and other Tamil and Muslim votes to the JVP led NPP the alternate alliance will be in a better position.

    • 7
      2

      ceylonee

      JVP has to grow up a bit as it seems to still dwells on Sinhala/Buddhism to secure its support base. In order to attract liberal voters to its cause whatever it may be it has to deal with its own past and its position on religion.

      Its recent publication “JVP’s Special Set Of proposals” is silent on Chapter II which guarantees special status for Buddhism while JVP proposes to secularise all other aspects of religious, personal laws, …..including including Kandyan Law, Thesawalamai, ….. including party names, ………..

      Can be obtained from following link:
      http://www.jvpsrilanka.com/english/publications/ebooks/

      Until it sees real issue’s from other people’s point of view it will remain just another campaign group.

  • 7
    0

    Great, the consistency displayed! Elderly Marxist, Professor Kumar David, has been at the JVP rally. When actually voting he will be a realist, as he has told us in this article:
    .
    https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/give-your-second-preference-to-the-dnf-unper-to-halt-gota-tick-both-preference-1-2/
    .
    He has written honestly, and may have been objective there in discounting Nagananda’s chances. I will, as honestly, definitely add to what is there suggested a FIRST Preference for Nagananda Kodituwakku. Let us do what we can, and give publicity to the system of voting.
    .
    The problem with the Naga campaign is precisely the fact that it relies too much on people having the time to listen to Youtube discussions. There was one from Australia that was particularly good; a young woman who questioned him intelligently from a studio.
    .
    When even an intelligent person like Nagananda is addressing only fervent supporters, it is possible for us to have little groups who feed one another encouragement, until we believe that the universe shares our views. Certainly, Nagananda will garner many votes, and forcing a count of Preferential votes will be an achievement.
    .
    There are some groups that must not try too hard to make specific appeals on behalf of a particular candidate. That usually gets resented.
    .
    https://www.newsradio.lk/local/voters-urged-to-mark-2nd-3rd-preferences/
    .
    We have to be rational enough to understand our own limitations. That includes the new forms of digital communication that our children use. Show the concern you feel in those ways! Que sera sera!
    .
    Translations into Tamil are very important. It is important that we contribute what we can – no not dishing out money to compete with the arrack that the two “major candidates” will distribute. Those who can, must reach out to the average voter who is honest but will not read this.

    • 4
      9

      Seriously? Nagananda is a sinister and somewhat dangerous chap thrown in to the mix by interested parties and with no realistic/pragmatic vision for governance (his half baked ‘constitution’) doesn’t count. The man is truly out of touch with reality. However, he is fully in touch with his personal bank account into which all campaign contributions go (odd) and will be the biggest winner after his failed election bid.

      Besides, who is going to vote for a chap who cannot form a government? Expected better from you Panini

      • 5
        0

        Dear Elder Buffalo,
        .
        Thanks for the interesting response. You know my name, but I don’t know yours. No real problem.
        .
        I agree that this statement of yours seems justified: “The man is truly out of touch with reality.”
        .
        If he is such an ass, he can’t at the same time be a card sharp, can he? Your concern will be justified only if you believe one thing is a possibility: that we could actually haul Anura Kumara D. into at MINIMUM Second Place after the first round of voting.
        .
        Let’s exchange notes on that very close to Election Day. Yes, if by then the JVP is doing as well as that, please contact me in some way (you obviously know me well), and I will vote ONE for the JVP.
        .
        I’ve listened to Nagananda on Youtube a lot. Yes, some of it may even be irritating, but I think that he’s genuine. Let us wait and see. Have you heard of the altruistic millionaire who tried to distribute currency notes on London Bridge? Nobody took the money. The story may be apocryphal, but possibly true! If Nagananda can’t form a government, no harm done. If you want the JVP to actually win, or get into second place, and they don’t because of a handful of votes, then I would have contributed to harming their chances.
        .
        On the other hand, if JVP actually does so well that they are in Second Place without my FIRST PREFERENCE, my vote will go to them since I will place them above the UNP – as suggested by Professor David (who is such a sincere Marxist that he doesn’t easily reveal that he was educated at S. Thomas’.)
        .
        I’m sure that you will realise that this exchange of ideas by us is contributing much towards educating other readers.

      • 2
        0

        The reality, probably, dear Buffalo, is that Prof. David is absolutely right. The JVP might just get enough votes to prevent a first-round win for Gota.
        .
        If he gets to within – let’s say – five votes of 50%, he will win, because then he needs to get only five Preferential Votes to win – and those he probably will receive – we don’t have to debate that. By advocating voting for Nagananda I may harm the JVP in one way only: that some thousands of people get persuaded by me to vote for Nagananda, so that the JVP fails to get into SECOND place by a few thousand votes. That is, if as a result of my voting for Nagananda, the JVP is narrowly placed third, getting more votes than the difference between SECOND and THIRD. For that to happen, the UNP, the JVP and Gota would all have performed at roughly equal levels. Most unlikely.
        .
        tbc

        .

      • 2
        0

        Continuation . . .
        .
        What the Professor is hoping is that a sufficient number of people have cast SECOND (or THIRD) preferences that Second-placed UNP (he doesn’t expect them to get over 50% of First Preferences) actually overtakes Gota, even if their final tally is less than half the valid votes.
        .
        If the UNP does achieve 50% without my vote, it won’t matter that I voted for Nagananda. I’ve given you the sole scenario in which my action could be disastrous.
        .
        I’ve just realised, dear Buffalo, that my Logic is sounder than yours! Hubris? There may possibly be a fallacy; if so, please point out.
        .
        I hope that Foreign Secretary, Ravinatha Ariyasena, is reading this. You see, I got him through External GAQ Philosophy, which consisted of one Paper of “Problems of Philosophy” and one of “Logic and Scientific Method.” That was just after I had done my own GAQ, and he got a group together in his Borella home. Can’t do it now! I don’t think that anybody else taught him, and he went on to do a Political Science Special Degree. I have not met him for 36 years since then.

        • 0
          0

          There is a comment here on this article that came much later than this which will make it necessary for me to talk about the difficulty for external students to find teachers of any subject.
          .
          https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/royal-institute-acts-supremely-above-the-law/
          .
          I will say much more there about studying “Arts Subjects” in English as an external student. Few readers will return to this article.

      • 3
        0

        Dear Elder Buffalo,
        .
        I’ve just found this. The time now is almost 3.00 a.m. (in other words almost all in the country are asleep. This 10 minute Youtube is pretty effective. It’s been published yesterday, and purports to show what Nagananda was doing in Nuggegoda on Tuesday, the 20th.
        .
        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUS61QY2vPI
        .
        I know Nugegoda reasonably well. I have no doubt about the location. Doesn’t it seem authentic to you? The other strengths here: this 65-year-old man is certainly physically fit. He walks around freely, doesn’t seem afraid.
        .
        The downside is that I’ve not yet held one of those cards in my hand – just hasn’t reached me. How can he possibly meet 15 million voters personally like this?
        .
        Why isn’t there a website for him, where people having a different life-style can get the most salient fact in an hour; perhaps download and store all verifiable facts? Only in Sinhala – English is not a problem – his own English is quite adequate, and we guys can understand his Sinhalese all right.
        .
        tbc

        • 2
          0

          KD is in his mid-70s! I should know because he returned with his PhD in 1970. Many are fit at that age, both physically and intellectually.

          This was sent to me by email:

          A massive study in America found that *the most productive age in a man’s life is 60 – 70*

          *From 70 – 80 is the 2nd most productive age.*

          *The 3rd most productive age is 50 – 60.*

          The average age of a Nobel Prize winner is 62.

          The average age of a CEO in a Fortune 500 company is 63.

          *The average age of the pastors of the 100 biggest churches in America is 71*.

          *The average age of Pope’s is 76*

          *This tells us somehow God has designed that the best years of your life are 60 – 80!*

          *It is when you do your best work.*

          *A study published in NEJM found that at 60 you reach your peak of potential and continue up to 80!*

          *So, if you are between 60 – 70, or 70-80, you have the best and second best years of your life with you!*

          • 0
            0

            Dear Jaffna Citizen,
            .
            If you want to pay a compliment to Prof. Kumar David, I’m with you. His powers of reasoning, writing, and speaking are as sharp as those of any younger man. However, his physical endurance, etc must be less. People come up with clever quips like “seventy is the new fifty”, but I’m not buying that! The world is changing and there is real danger in our thinking that we, older people, can manage everything. We are enough of a gerontocracy as it is, wondering how to get rid of MaRa, Ranil and My3.
            .
            Regarding that American list: the Nobel Prize age will obviously vary with the discipline. Common sense tells me that the real breakthroughs are made by people in their thirties, but recognition comes much later.
            .
            What you have quoted is acceptable as well-meant encouragement to the elderly to live full lives, but I would question how all that data was obtained. I’m elderly myself, so thanks for sharing.
            .
            And it is good that Citizens of Jaffna and Uva are exchanging ideas. Thanks.
            .

      • 2
        0

        Continued . . .
        .
        But what about Tamil? He’s not a racist. He speaks against “leaderships”. About militants killed in the War, I’ve heard him say that they were the innocent misleds, just as much as the Sinhalese youth killed in 1971 and 1989, and that their parents also deserve compensation. Contrast with the language used by many even on this website. No, he doesn’t say that such money will be paid. If he did, I’d dismiss him as a fraud. Where can you get such money?
        .
        He wants to get rid of Provincial Councils. A Jaffna “friend” who emails me with a pseudonymous address, and whose identity (or telephone number) I don’t know tells me he doesn’t mind that, but that the average Northerner will not like that because they think that the bit of devolution accorded by the 13th Amendment also will be taken away.
        .
        That Youtube segued into another about Edwin Ariyadasa – a strange guy (now 96 he says there) whom I have met, and don’t much fancy. He’s one of those guys who tries to be everything to everyone. And a racist.
        .
        About Nagananda, keep an open mind. I’m not guaranteeing that you are going to be proved wrong. I just am not sure. It’s too early to write him off.

        • 2
          0

          Sinhala_Man

          Please read this interesting article by Devaka Gunawardena
          Global challenges and proto-fascism
          http://www.ft.lk/opinion/Global-challenges-and-proto-fascism/14-684330

          He is a dangerous Liberal, armed with analysis and ideas.
          Don’t approach him if you are not a sensible liberal.

        • 0
          0

          How did I first heard about this man? I think that we must very sincerely thank the author of that article, Dr W.A. Wijewardena, whom I’ve actually met – now hold on for a surprise: where? In my home! How did that happen?
          .
          In one of his many articles, he had made a mistake, very common by Sri Lankans, regarding the use of “few coconuts” and “a few coconuts”. Commenter SJ (aka retired Peradeniya Professor of Engineering, Sivasekaram) was later to point out the mistake. He had done that politely enough. However, what I immediately did was, I wrote to Dr. W.A.W., explaining the differences in usage. I’m sure that he wouldn’t mind my saying all this. Why pretend that one knows everything? One never learns if one does that. On that only occasion, so far, that we met, he gifted me a number of books that he has written. Why? He just considered me a decent man who is interested in issues. The books included novels in English . Let me post this and say more later!
          .
          https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/rohan-pallewatta-man-who-has-proved-that-sri-lanka-can-also-do/

          • 0
            0

            Dear Sinhala_Man, Our mistakes are mostly oversight.
            .
            Look at your very first sentence: ‘How did I first heard about this man?’. You wrote that sentence?
            .
            Generally, second languages are difficult. English is not any more difficult than any other second language. (I see you shaking your head in disagreement!)

            • 0
              0

              Yes, Thappu, I’m horrified at that myself.
              .
              Yes, that is the sort of thing that makes one realise that one must tolerate the mistakes that others make.
              .
              English is a confusing language. I will always maintain that. You’ve got to learn it as a toddler to avoid such mistakes. It is my best language (well, I have only one other!). I feel that I make this sort of mistake sometimes when I have written a sentence, and then decided to change the structure used. No, I’d never speak that sentence!
              .
              It’s quite all right your taking a dig at me – enjoyed it! But scroll down to the response from a guy called D. Nimal here:
              .
              https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/the-provincial-council-elections-the-charade-goes-on/

              .
              Call that English? I’m wrtining this here hoping that the poor guy won’t look at this page. The “difficulty in understanding” was quite an understatement! We must never ridicule English mistakes in Sri Lanka. It wouldn’t matter in some other country!
              .
              Please study this article, though. The title ought to have been “In search of a few good men.” The same mistake as made by Dr Wijewardena. This article is far too important to draw attention to a mistake in English.
              .
              https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/in-search-of-few-good-men-part-ii/
              .
              Please read the article!

  • 4
    0

    Professor Kumar David, a very incisive piece of writing; a great follow up to the earlier article published a few days ago. It is also educative of the ordinary, not so politically savvy citizenry like myself. I trust that this will get translated into the two national languages and published in all the mainstream newspapers.

  • 1
    7

    JVP cannot be trusted. they will talk, but could be like north korea when they finnish. communism is dead. these idiots live in alternative reality. ironically the writer lives in Australia. not a communist country. in campus most a communist, out of campus the guys are out and out capitalist. only the stupid stay commuinist., unless they can become politicos and make money.

  • 2
    0

    What is vitally important is that Tamil and Muslim voters should not boycott voting as this merely helps the contender in the lead, most likely GR. Whilst there are compelling reasons for both groups to boycott a presidential election as neither GR nor Sajith has shown any inclination to address their problems, with MR as Prime Minister and Devananda as his proxy in the north, one can be certain that this situation will only worsen.

  • 1
    2

    JVP will have to do some deal with Gota or Sajith to get power, unless the UNP has already bought them. Also, they too are corrupt bastards as Chams has pointed out.

  • 4
    0

    Last Sunday the 18th, JVP demonstrated their disciplined, systematic, well organized a rally that is very unique in the political arena announced their presidential candidate without any struggle. Shame for the so called national politicians (UNP, SLFP, SLPP ….) and the rest of the political parties. There weren’t any liquor bottles, no lunch packets, no polythene bags and no cash payment at all. It is a remarkable achievement in the light of the emerging political campaigns trekking towards presidential election in December which both major political PARTIES STILL STRUGGLING TO NAME THEIR CANDIDATE.

  • 3
    0

    President election this time around is going to look strange with votes
    packed into different sizes and for different needs . All horses will
    promise castles in the belief that’s what people ask for ! Army man says
    he will protect you and I remember a song from Sting ” Mr Reagan says
    he will protect you , I don’t subscribe to his point of view , believe me
    when I say to you , the Russians love their children too”. House provider
    promises like his father did ! The lawyer promises justice like nobody else
    did ! A K D as usual , his party’s voice and determination , emphasise the
    need for an overhaul of the whole system which majority of people go with
    very comfortably but not yet ready to act with confidence ! So far , our
    history of elections had been with ” known devils” than the unknown angel
    which puts the Lawyer comfortably out ! There’s no room for Macrons in
    Srilanka simply because it is not affordable to Srilankans ! It is three times
    a day rice eaters that go to polls . Not to put them down but to explain the
    real picture . There could be race based vote-split efforts at the last minute
    from minorities , just a possibility ! The hype itself about this president
    election is proof of the quality of the voters , they are still living in the
    absence of 19th amendment .

  • 3
    1

    You say, This is not a bunch put together to prop up a JVP presidential candidate; it is an alliance of 30 self-thinking groups … While you seem to be impressed by this motley crowd headed by a man who is a ‘know all’ – a self made pandithaya.

    .

    You are saying that they are not going to be corrupt. You know very well that the corruption starts if and when they come in to power. Now they are as pure as driven snow. That is how everyone starts off.

    .

    Even if your position is well founded you can be sure that they will not be trusted by the Western powers and even by India. I will never vote for them because they shot and killed a cousin of mine because he happened to be the UNP organizer in my area in the second JVP uprising.
    .

    As for their Punditry you remember the famous Ron mada issue where they destroyed many tanks by removing the ron mada which was purposely put there by the ancient tank builders to protect the tanks against seepage. The tanks started leaking and there was hell to pay.

    • 4
      1

      edwin rodrigo ,

      Chandrika and Mahinda , for more than twenty years , were just
      piloting the aircraft that J R J brought into our port ! I lost one of
      my cousins , one distant relative and a friend of my father who
      was an electoral organiser , a sure horse at the time to J V P bullets !
      At the time of first J V P insurgency , this man A K D was just a
      three year old ! Mahinda Wijesekara joined S L F P , Nandana
      Gunathilake is in the U N P and Karuna Amman is with S L P P .
      You know well that Vasu , Dinesh , Wimal all are absorbed by the
      parties that people recognise to serve them . In this background of
      change of heart , why should anyone not forget the past and move
      on with confidence with these guys who toil hard for it ? So far , in
      my humble view , regardless of their ideology , their pros outweigh
      the cons highly and positively ! They deserve a chance .

      • 4
        0

        I am sorry. He was not only my cousin but one of my best friends. I cannot forgive and forget his brutal killing by JVP. My cousin was an expert in martial arts and the JVP was afraid to get near him and they shot him from a distance. Again why, why I am sorry – but no can do.
        .
        2) This is not the only close at hand personal experience I had with them. They killed a driver of CTB because he did not heed their call for a strike. he was unarmed, a father of two and a good man.

        .
        3) Once a dozen of them came to my house and at the point of a shot gun demanded our ID cards and of course we gave it to the.
        .
        Brutality, bullying and savegery is still in their genes. Just take the Anthare leaders. They are JVPers and they are destroying the future of 1000’s of youths by their ragging and bullying. Free education is one of the few treasures we have from our earlier rulers. They want to destroy it. Sorry but NO CAN VOTE for JVP.

        • 2
          0

          edwin rodrigo ,

          Thank you for your response . At the end of the day , it is your
          vote . No way anyone can disagree with you over J V P’s past
          and at the same time they too paid a heavy and brutal price
          for their deeds ! Our system has rehabilitated them and allowed
          them to regroup in an acceptable and respectable way . In the
          parliament they stand undisputed for decency and efficiency
          where some right Royalists behaved like real rogues ! Yet ,
          people have their reservations , quite normal . I don’t go with
          all of their policies but definitely there are areas where our trust
          has been betrayed for quite a long time by our past and present
          leaders .

          • 2
            0

            why why, I am glad to have this conversation with you as two people who respect each other. Most of all, you are able to see it from another’s point of view. Unfortunately, such dialogs are rare today even in CT.
            .

            If you look at the cartoons in Hiru Paththare Vistare of today (22/08) you will see one about JVP. There AKD is depicted as a snake who has just shed its Communist skin (හැව) and that is how I feel about them..
            .
            I attended a JVP meeting in Galle presided by Wijeweera in the 80’s just after he was released from jail. Apart from his politics he was a great leader and had charisma. His speech mesmerized the audience. AKD is just a shadow compared to that. Every time he speaks he puts me off.
            .
            JVP web site has this quotation of Che Guevara: “If you tremble indignation at every injustice then you are a comrade of mine.” while they seem to ignore another by him.
            .
            Remember that the revolution is what is important , and each one of us, alone, is worth nothing.

            • 2
              0

              edwin rodrigo ,

              Though we don’t exchange master pieces , it is quite
              refreshing to see we respect and understand each other
              on a competitive issue . Thank you for your compliments
              and I feel the same about you . And just so you know , we
              had been U N P ers for generations until I saw the party
              working to lose the loyalty of its support base . And on the
              other hand , J V P , I see working hard to win people’s
              heart . We ,as a family didn’t discuss any change of our
              future course of action and it is just me and still undecided
              on a solid ground ! Ranil has made a habit of trying to
              emerge from chaos he creates untiringly within the party.
              This is disgusting to watch at every nearing elections !
              And Mahinda group braves to discard all public concern
              about their family-first attitude without any shame !
              Thank you for your time edwin rodrigo .

  • 4
    0

    Comment on memory of Galle Face Rally ?
    What has happen in 1963 by so-called” United Left Front” led by LSSP, MEP and CPC (Moscow-wing) in and out of that Galle Face green; what type of role play by those political parties ?
    Suddenly that led by Dr Dr (double Doctor) NM of LSSP was joint to SLFP coalition govt.in 1964. Then has MEP of Philips Gunawaradana (so-called father of Marxist) collaborations with that Dudely Senanayae led UNP on that grand alliance; and form govt in 1965.
    Undone CPC put up poster in through-out Colombo to begging and claim to join SLFP +LSSP coalition govt. …..from 1964 ! @
    Daivid of Kumar has forget that what has happen to 21 Trade Union demands put forward by major Trade Unions-21 in same Galle face Green Chair by Dr NM of LSSP leader?
    All in all that Good intentions of (bona Fide ) of that Working class has been Betray by leaders of LSSP MEP and CPC ( Moscow-wing) leadership . So-called left parties has been batch by batch cross over to joint bourgeoisie classes and its politics of that SLFP and UNP then and there….well beginning of 1964 ………?
    Ceylon (Sri Lanka) Working classes and Rural poor has lost their Political Parties and their leadership for ever ? Entire masses of People of Ceylon or Sri Lanka which since under the leadership of Bourgeoisie of Comprador of UNP or and National bourgeoisie of SLFP .
    Perhaps on 1964 was the turning -point of history that several decades of Two Ruling Parties whom were Govern-an Island by Westminster -Rule and Republic governance from 1972. .
    JVP was born out of this political mess and vacuum of by that betray of OLD LEFT OUTFITS which lost of their leadership of LSSP, MEP and CPC of (Moscow-wing) .

  • 1
    5

    I don’t have any material to debate with Prof. KD on the points he is raising. But the simple fact again is, he is at his math more than should be, and ignoring the real trends.
    As usual he has put many unrelated points together, here. Talking about all of them is not possible.
    Let’s look at one or two.
    His contention is a third force has born in Lankawe. This happened all over the world, according to him. That is not quite true but that is not our problem. His all recent essays were about neo liberalist creating the new parties abandoning original conventional parties. Is this applying to Anura Kumara also or new honest Marxist party is being born in Lankawe while, world over, the Marxism is dying? As a famous last Tamil Left, can Prof tell me that who was last honest Marist political leader in Lankawe? NM? Colin? Peter? SWRD? Gunawardenas? Vasu? ……Wijeweera, ………Now Anura Kumara?
    SWRD built an empire, Pancha Maha Balaya, against UNP. May I know where is that 2nd alternative, now? In fact, if JVP is another force, it is the fourth force in this election, after Old King has built his alternate to the two SLFP. When Prof K was building his formula, how he missed that Old King has already built the third force and for many Sinhala Buddhists it is the alternate from SLFP-UNP duo? (What Prof. Kumar missing in his analysis, or rather in his formulas, the Sinhala Politicians do not build a political force, but rather create an opportunistic diversification, to win elections. Decorating Anura’s new Vanara Koodam( King Ram’s monkey Army which won Ilankai) is not going to add any good for dying Marxism.) Last LG election indicated that voters are confused and they are all over everywhere. That is not just for UP-SLFP, even TNA faced it too.

  • 2
    3

    One plus point is, Anura gathered this crowd, but not municipally workers had to go around the streets to remove the feces. Even the dropped out popcorn paper bags were removed by the JVP volunteers.
    But that doesn’t make it a force. As a theoretician, Prof must understand, building a force is not election crowd gathering. It is about, over a time, digging deep and planting the revolutionary, new idea in the people mind. People need a time to abandon the old, accept the new, make familiar that for them and resolve to work for that. There is no role for emotion to play. It was Feb 2018 Old Royal wave sweeping across the country. Now, is that Prof claiming Anura has achieved this much? The truth is Prof never worries about the fundamental forces acting behind a change; but he just uses his integration and differentiation to come out with some statistical conclusion.
    SWRD’s 2nd force has gone out, if not from history, at least for few future elections. The gun wielding Slap Party’s magic is vanishing, even before its whole parts had come out of mother’s stomach. Old King has not yet properly accepted its leadership. Tilvin, Weerawansa and other JVPs showed another show in 2005. But after that, JVP has become two.
    The last useful point is, the news I read is saying this crowed is dissent UNPyers. I don’t know how Prof Kumar came to the conclusion that this is JVP’s crowd. We have been stressing that a reasonable portion of Sinhala Buddhists are “Opposition Party supporters”. So, from the opposition party, there is no effort needed to attract those votes. When UNP-SLFP formed Yahapalanaya, Mahajan voted to Slap Party, seeing it as the opposition party (though, theoretically, there was no leader & it was not officially existing that time). Now, as the Opposition Supporters seeing Slap Party as only part and parcel of Old SLFP, they are looking at JVP as the opposition party.

  • 1
    0

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  • 0
    0

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  • 3
    0

    Easily the shortest essay to-date by Prof: Kumar David.
    The last sentence to this essay is where the precise issue has been highlighted.
    ……..This is where the mobilisation of a third force is an indispensable safeguard on its ROAD to becoming the alternative…..
    Admittedly, the JVP HAS JUST BEGUN TO TRAVERSE THIS ROAD, and it will most probably not make it in the limited time left for the election.
    But this third force will gather more and more support after another round of anarchy by the traditionalists[UNP,SLFP, SLPP etc,etc] and end up the as the ruling third force!

  • 1
    0

    “so he needs 71% of the Sinhala-Buddhist vote”

    How in the world you then say

    “.A more rational early hypothesis at this time is that Gota and R-S-or-K will both poll in the mid-40s”

    It is impossible for Gota to get mid 40% of the overall vote from the 70% overall voter base. Then, at least 90% of the Sinhalese Buddhists must vote for Gota.

    Wrong and bad arithmatics

    • 1
      0

      KD is spot on, GR only needs only about 65% of Sinhala Buddhist vote to reach mid 40s of the overall vote, do the maths.

    • 0
      0

      no individual or party will ever get landslide in future .

      AKD’s candidacy is a Political earthquake for all politicians and parties.

      Its soon going to be bedtime stories for Elites , nepotism and favouritism at all levels and soon the end of plundering country’s resources and surpassing duties, taxes and under the table Tenders which are the main reasons for the bankruptcy of our treasury.

      I guess the modus operandi of the dream of single and exclusive ethnicity government by cetain groups has been rooted for good

  • 7
    5

    I predict Gota will win by a landslide. Easter Sunday was right in the heart of Colombo; if Colombo is not safe, no part of the country is. So the main concern should be security. Whatever radicalizing forces exist in the East, they need to be dismantled quickly and efficiently. UNP has no idea how to do this. If UNP comes to power, you can expect more Easter Sunday attacks, expect to see more mad buggers with backups full of explosives walking around Colombo while PM Ranil continues his foreign jaunts. A 3rd party candidate is not enough to make the election “close”, e.g. take votes away from Gota. A 3rd party candidate from unknown political party will poll 1 or 2% at best.

    • 2
      3

      Lester

      “I predict Gota will win by a landslide.”

      You are not kidding are you?
      When will the exodus start, perhaps the next day?
      Are you the reincarnation of Sumanadasa Abeygunawardena, Mahinda’s court astrologer?

      • 1
        0

        @NV – you keep
        forgetting his role in the palace, he is merely playing it here too.

        At least he is excellent with his skills….
        smile .. smile , smile

  • 0
    0

    Kumar David,

    It is not higher mathematics,simple arithmetic

    The second and third preferences of only the eliminated candidates are counted at he second round and the results are conclusive

  • 0
    0

    Tamil and Muslim votes are going to be split. All three candidates are going to get substantial number of minority votes and the second and third preferences of JVP votes are crucial if the counting goes to the second round.

  • 0
    0

    Nothing much has changed over century of politics in Ceylon. The Indian Parasite Cabal and India pull the strings. N M and Phillip were sponsored by Captain and Gnanam those days when Kumar was in the rallies. Jeppos are sponsored by the same India and Indian Parasite Cabal.

  • 2
    0

    Even if AKD does not become president , The entire Political past is going to completely change during The general Election , JVP will no longer be insignificant voice , they will be the future voice of the common man, the oppressed, the needy and be the policeman protecting the nation from being robbed and served on a platter to foreign entities.

    Their next presence in cabinet will make sure whoever rules they rule by the law..

    Its important JVP secures at least 75 seats out of 125 seats and I believe they will ..

    I believe in places like Akurana, digana, kuranagela district, negombo and Gampaha district they have a sure muslim vote of at least 30 to 40 percent they may get at least surprisingly and no one can break this

  • 0
    0

    It is time the TNA started serious conversations and negotiations with the United Left Front. Aligning themselves with the UNP has taken the Tamil people nowhere, zilch! Around the world, only true left wing political alliances have given protection and due rights to minorities. Nationalists and pro-corporate rule parties only serve vested interests.

  • 3
    0

    JVP must start touring the entire island and especially the most remote villages

  • 0
    0

    My dad became a UNP supporter after the LSSP/CP betrayal of the working class.

  • 0
    0

    no individual or party will ever get landslide in future .

    AKD’s candidacy is a Political earthquake for all politicians and parties.

    Its soon going to be bedtime stories for Elites , nepotism and favouritism at all levels and soon the end of plundering country’s resources and surpassing duties, taxes and under the table Tenders which are the main reasons for the bankruptcy of our treasury.

    I guess the modus operandi of the dream of single and exclusive ethnicity government by cetain groups has been rooted for good

  • 2
    0

    Kumar

    Birth of a movement.

    The baby is in incubation.150,000 is miniscule.

    Jathika Vimukthi Peramuna is an Ideology.
    Sri Lanka Peoples Peramuna is peoples movement and that is where the comparison ends

    The Nation is crying for Gotha and in many peoples eyes the killer machine is the saviour of the Country.. But not in reality. He is bad news for the Minorities as the White Vans will be bck in the North & East , Abductions and Extra Judicial Killings will increase. Contray to what Gotha says he will not give an inch to the Tamils and it looks like the Indian Pressure is begining to bite as Gotha is talking about 13th Amendment.
    But make no mistake Gotha will be bad news for the Country.

    1) If elected he will become a persona Non Grata and no Western Country will do business with him.
    2) Tourist industry will not revive
    3) India will watch with a close eye.

    The choice is beteween Devil & the Deep Blur Sea.

  • 1
    1

    Better not bring this issue into Sri Lanka at this time when the Muslims in SL are in a bad situation. Kashmir will be seen as an area which was Hindu/Buddhist and where Muslims took over it by invasion and conversion- a fate to be avoided in SL. So, don’t add to the existing anti_muslim feeling by doing your particular spin on events in Kashmir.

  • 0
    1

    The Galle Face Green that day of born not that the ! Or Third Force by certain miscalculations of ex-LSSP’s…writer ,
    It is a movement for Political terrorism by JVP has been that deal is seal off by NEW FORM of DEAL of automatically that nexus to that Right -wing politics…of UNP leadership.
    By the way of an unholy alliances led by UNP later that JVP of “National People Movement” will join in different form.
    In that politically terms is more or less anarchism of Terrorism by in deeds serve for vital interest that of USA.. of that an ambition of Indo-Pacific regional domination .
    Many hegemonic ambitions power-full countries are backing JVP by funding and materials . We do not wanted any mode of that big -power revival in land of
    Sri lanka.
    We are not that bode for future of our people in an Island . But we can say bluntly that one thing that JVP is/was Terror outfit.

  • 1
    0

    Almost 60% revenue loss .can CT or any media kindly provide the latest figures for 2017 or 18 of 19.

    If the duty revenue is collected honestly we can cover quite a chunk of our budget
    https://www.colombotelegraph.com/index.php/sri-lanka-customs-cheats-go-unpunished/

    • 0
      0

      Cowboy & Crooks ,

      ” I f the duty revenue is collected………….” . Our men know how to
      bulldoze the limits ! They will be looking for new avenues to
      fill the coffer with more loans to compete with each other on
      unwelcome projects ! Their greed has no boundaries . Already
      it is there for everybody to see , the height of our lifestyle
      that is jacked up by foreign employment and garment making
      employments that flood the country with dollars. Garment
      manufacturing is something that travels the globe looking for
      lower prices , it doesn’t stay in one place for longer . Are we ready
      to face it one day which is not really far away ? We are already in
      the trap of spending beyond our means , almost every household
      according to its size ! .

  • 0
    1

    UNP can win
    Dream on Socialist Lefty KD. JVP at most will get 15% of the protest vote of Sinhalese and Muslims.
    Most minorities will vote for the UNP candidate.
    SLPP GOTA is losing the initial fizz and euphoria. Advantage dhoby caste candidate in all of the Colombo Urban seats. But suburb areas of Colombo will be for Gota.

    Govigama Gota is colourless and drab; they vote for MR who is still the most popular leader in the nation. But SLFP will sabotage Gota by siding with UNP. Younger urban and suburban voters are sick of family bandyism. Anything goes, but Mister KD the dreamer, mark this message JVP will NOT get anything more than 15% of the vote. If UNP selects honorable Karu J, they can actually win.

    JVP will not get anywhere. Ask them to return the ID cards and gold they stole from people in the 1987-89 period Comrade

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