By Asoka S. Seneviratne –

Prof. Asoka.S. Seneviratne

“Avoid popularity; it has many snares, and no real benefit.” ~ William Penn

AKD/NPP faced people in two elections. First, there was the presidential election, which followed the general election. Compared to the presidential election, the general election was a massive victory for AKD/NPP, with 159 parliamentary seats won out of 225.  Regarding the presidential election, I wrote an article for Colombo Telegraph on 21 August 2024, “Political Remnants: NPP Certainly Succeed”. It became a reality. Following the above, I wrote to Colombo Telegraph on 29 September 2024, “NPP Winning 113 Seats is Simple, But Winning 150 & close to 200 are Strategic and Deliberate”. This also became a reality. For both presidential and general elections, I gave profound reasons for the victory. It was mainly due to economic reasons, together with people and the country, who were fed up with green and blue politics. It is not green or blue; the same politicians are divided into green and blue for their survival and convenience. People and the country understood the above as Ranil-Rajapaksa and Sajith belong to one group, which looks after their interests and safeguards via exploitation and asset accumulation at a mounting cost to the people and the country in many ways. Contrary to the above, the AKD/NPP government has been in power for six months. Given the above, a small group of people or the opposition parties state that local government elections in May 2025 will be a popularity test for the government. However, some people think it is not a matter of a popularity test. Still, most people believe that the AKD/NPP government is in the right direction or on the right path, looking for a prosperous future for all, managing the economy, setting fiscal and monetary policies, and promoting economic stability with a minimum of 5% economic growth. They believe the economy’s backwardness since 1948 cannot be reversed and will not flourish in six months. It takes time. This article examines the above two views towards the actual popularity test of the government.

The purpose of Governments

It is essential to indicate the purposes or key functions of governments. According to published sources, there are seven (7) key functions, (i) Making and Enforcing Laws: Governments create and implement laws to maintain order, resolve disputes, and protect citizens from harm (ii)  Protecting Natural Rights: Governments are often seen as responsible for safeguarding fundamental rights, such as freedom of speech, religion, and assembly. (iii) Providing Essential Services: Governments often provide essential services such as infrastructure (roads and bridges), education, healthcare, and public safety. (iv) Representing the People: Governments are expected to represent the interests of their citizens, both domestically and internationally. (v) Managing the Economy: Governments manage the economy, setting fiscal and monetary policies and promoting economic growth and stability (vi) Ensuring National Security: Governments protect their country from external threats and maintain national security. (vii) Maintaining Order- governments are responsible for maintaining order and stability within the country, often through law enforcement and the judicial system. As in the context of Sri Lanka, dealing with (a) bribery, (b) corruption (c) frauds, and (d) waste must be emphasized as the center of managing the economy because the above are more than cancers that have destroyed the country compared to the stage of economic development of Singapore and Japan. In 1948, Ceylon was at a similar stage of economic development to Singapore and Japan, or they were under the category of developing countries. But today, among many, Sri Lanka is a highly indebted country, and it is impossible to think when Sri Lanka will be able to be on par with Singapore and Japan. This is the destiny of Sri Lanka.

The concept of the popularity & Election promises

According to the key functions of governments, popularity is not a goal or aim. This is also true for the AKD/NPP government. Among many, when AKD/NPP wanted to deal with (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and (d) waste, it did not seek popularity or cheap popularity. It was a conviction for AKD/NPP, even before the economy’s collapse in 2022. Furthermore, that conviction is true and correct, along with massive revelations of COPA and COPE these days. Some top politicians are in jail for corruption and fraud. The above is just the tip of the iceberg, and many more will be revealed as investigations are underway. In short, it is a miracle that Sri Lanka has not become another Somalia or Venezuela.

For the AKD/NPP to be popular among people, including those who did not vote for it in the presidential and general elections, there are so many things that the government can do. For example, the government can increase salaries by 100% overnight and sell all goods through government outlets at half price compared to the private sector. Also, it can sell all types of fuel at half price. As a result, there is no doubt that the AKD/NPP government will become popular overnight. However, seeking that sort of popularity is stupid and imprudent and has disastrous consequences, leading to the economy’s collapse more than in 2022 or never recoverable. The reality is that the AKD/NPP government has to do all with limited resources, not leaving any room for destabilizing the economy’s foundation, which has been laid following huge sacrifices and pains in many ways in the past. Indeed, how the government manages the economy skillfully and capably should be the foundation for the government’s popularity, especially if anyone wants to talk or discuss the government’s popularity. This indeed is for the long-term perspective. I will come to this point later.

On the other hand, people and the country did not expect or want a popular government. The majority of people hardly know the above-mentioned seven functions of governments. But they have a good understanding of (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and (d) waste, and as a result, how politicians and their crooked associates exploit public resources for asset accumulation. Given the above, people and the country expected that AKD/NPP would deal with (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and (d) waste head-on on which is a reality now. In other words, the bottom line is that there is no room for MR 10% like characters. They are dead and vanished like burnt camphor.

The increasing cost of living was the main concern of the people and the country during the last two elections, and AKD/NPP promised to address and resolve this issue. The key promise was to reduce VAT, which was part of the IMF bailout. AKD/NPP also promised to work on an alternative Debt Sustainability Analysis (DSA). I wrote an article for the Colombo Telegraph on 13 October 2024. “AKD/NPP & IMF: Response to Critics”. I emphasized that if anyone could formulate a program that does not violate the program parameters of the IMF bailout, it would be accepted by the IMF. The IMF bailout program is based on two fundamentals: (i) gradual recovery of the Sri Lanka economy from the collapse in 2022 towards a sustained economic growth path, and (ii) how Sri Lanka must be able to pay back its US$ 106 billion debt, both domestically and internationally. Based on the above, the IMF indicated that the economy will enter into a gradual recovery path towards a stable economy, which will be able to pay back about USD 106 billion in debt while looking after the economically vulnerable people in many ways. Indeed, it is not a secret that AKD/NPP came into power; it did its best to work with the IMF, reduce VST, etc., based on election promises.

If the government wants to work against the parameters of the IMF bailout and go with a reduction of VAT, the ultimate result is that the economy falls back to 2022, which it is inevitable. This reality cannot be rejected. Given the above, the choice for the AKD/NPP government, people, and country is to go back to 2022 or move along the recovery path for a stable economy with sustained economic growth momentum. Given the above, the concern for the popularity test is not applicable. There is no such program by RW. The Sri Lankan government agreed to and signed the IMF bailout.  No matter which political party or government holds power, they are expected to adhere to the IMF bailout. This is the ground reality at the moment.

Based on the above, it is not logical and ethical for the opposition to blame the AKD/NPP government for 24 hours of lying to the people and, hence, cheating the people and the country. The AKD/NPP government did not lie or mislead the people and the nation. Contrarily, it acted in reality. The opposition leader, Sajith Premadasa, states 24 hours that he could make the IMF program people- and country-friendly, if he were in power. If he could do that, it would be excellent indeed. But there are two concerns. He will never come to power, so he lies 24 hours a day, similar to 2.50% Namal Rajapaksa. He is a remnant of the Sataka Natake family. Another problem is whether Sajith could present a people-friendly version of the IMF program with the pure intention of helping the people and the country. If the people’s friendly program is acceptable to the IMF, Sajitjh will become a hero overnight and be the next president of Sri Lanka. The 2.50% man can also do the above without wasting time going around the country while stating that his father, MR  was wrong about Shirani Bandaranayake. Namal cannot increase 2.50% in his lifetime. Thanks to the national list, he entered the parliament with Sataka. I am not writing about RW as he knows well that no more government vacancies for him in the future. Currently, he is living with the Batalanda Report after he was caught by AL Zeera journalist Mehdi Hasan. In short, UNP, SLFP,SLPP, and SJB will not be able to mark the electoral list in the country following the political Tsunami last year. The reason is that people and county know them well and their characters. There is nothing for them to offer to the people and the country over and above what the AKD/NPP government has already offered. However, they have to pay back the stolen money as investigations are under way. It is for their popularity test like SM Rangith and Mrs. Chandrasena.

Are Local Elections a Popularity Test for the AKD/NPP Government? 

Usually, by-elections and referendums are used to test the popularity of governments, and this is true. The local elections were expected to be held in March 2024, but President Ranil Wickremesighe (RW) did not want to have them. The Sri Lankan Supreme Court ruled that canceling local elections violated democratic rights. The AKD/NPP government currently has parliamentary seats in South, North, East, and West, covering the country. In May 2025, local elections will be held for 340 local authorities, including 24 municipal councils, 41 urban councils, and 275 divisional councils. There is no concern in the country where most people are unhappy with the government. So, as in the past, the government will win this time too. Indeed, people have been hugely humiliated by the opposition based on its statement that AKD/NPP cheated the people by lying and making promises. Most people voted for AKD/NPP because they had been fed up with blue and green politicians since 1948. They wanted to mark a change. The presidential and general election voter base is still with the  AKD/NPP government, and it is still growing. That voter base is not going with the opposition, because people know that if they go with crooks, they will not get anything. In short, they did not expect the government to be popular. Instead, they expected that by understanding the reality, the government would do the right thing and take a long-term perspective for a better future. This is the vital point. Within the six months, the AKD/NPP government has not done anything to hurt or harm the people and the country. It has taken all possible measures, such as salary increases and income tax adjustments, to help and look after the people and the nation. Also, the government introduced various welfare-oriented measures to help the people and the country. The opposition cannot deny the above. However, the government believes that overall production increases are the best solution to compensate for the real income loss caused by COVID-19 and the implementation of wrong economic policies, such as using carbonic fertilizers. Production increases are based on the long-term perspective of the current stability of the economy. By doing all, the government’s accountability is exceptional.

Undoubtedly, the government will retain the people’s trust in the local elections. That trust is doing the right things at the right time and for the proper purpose. It is not seeking popularity. If AKD/NPP could win all 340 local authorities, it would signal that it is on the right track for long-term prosperity. Even if it could not win as expected, it will not affect the development path chosen by the government, which is vital. Having 159 parliamentary seats, the AKD/NPP government will not be shaken by the local election results. After a political Tsunami for the opposition following the presidential and general elections, if the opposition could win local elections, marking a turning point, it would be great for the opposition. However, I doubt it because the majority of people know well about the thieves and criminals in the opposition who are still crying in pain due to the devastating political Tsunami last year. Indeed, the opposition does not know its role in the parliament and in the country. Its role must be (a) constructive, (b) supportive, and (c) accommodating in line with the government’s efforts and commitment to give the people and the country a better future. So far, the government has not taken any measures to harm the expectations of the people and the country.  This means the government is with the people, for which the opposition is jealous and utterly disappointed. The popular statement of the opposition that the government would last only 6 months is dead and gone. They will soon invent a similar statement for the survival game.

Question to the Opposition

I want to raise the following to the opposition, as they have blamed the AKD/NPP government for 24 hours. Initially, I indicated seven key functions: (i) Making and Enforcing Laws, (ii)  Protecting Natural Rights. (iii) Providing Essential Services. (iv) Representing the People (v) Managing the Economy: (vi) Ensuring National Security: (vii) Maintaining Order. Along with the above, governments are dealing with (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and  (d) waste. The purpose of the opposition does not mean criticizing the government for 24 hours. Critics are welcome but must align with the government’s utmost commitment and effort to give the people a better future.  In other words, the opposition must do everything in the interest of the people and the country. I wonder if the opposition could criticize the government based on the seven key functions mentioned above. Unfortunately, the opposition does not see those constructive, supportive, and accommodating roles. The AKD/NPP government must do everything according to the laws about the seven fundamental functions above. For example, SM Ranjith and Mrs. SM Chandrasena received a 16-year jail sentence after a 14-year prosecution process. The government is committed to doing all these things based on the laws. It cannot pass a Jail sentence or a prison sentence to anyone. It is up to the legal system and the judiciary in charge. They are fully independent authorities. On the other hand, some of the bureaucrats from top to bottom still have the same mentality that they had priority for the establishment of the AKD/NPP government six months ago. They are still bound or inclined with (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and  (d) waste, which is a plague. Within six months, unless it is a tsunami-like force, the AKD/NPP government cannot eliminate the abovementioned plague. The government has proved it is free from (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and  (d) waste. Given the above, it will take time for those bureaucrats to work with the government in many ways and to be on track with the government. In other words,  as they have used to earn chief money or resources via  (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and (d) waste by following their top political leaders and with their protection, it isn’t very easy for them to live without (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and (d) waste. It will take time for them to understand the purpose of the AKD/NPP government, which differs from the previous governments in many ways.   Sri Lanka Customs, IRD, RMV, and the Department of Excise mention that a few are dens of thieves (i.e., not all, but some). Within six months, the government cannot clean the authorities mentioned above to be free from (a) bribery, (b) corruption, (c) fraud, and (d) waste. Also, the police, Rail appointed IGP, is in jail, an utter disgrace for the police force and the country. I wrote that a few former opposition ministers are also in jail, while some have absconded. Law and order in the country are working well. People and the government are happy, but not the opposition.

Priority of the AKD/NPP Government and the real popularity test

Local elections should not be the top priority of the AKD/NPP government. They should only be concerned because, regardless of the outcome of the local elections, there is a massive challenge for the government. That challenge is complex and demanding. However, the opposition does not know it in depth; it is unknown to the public. If the gravity of the challenge is known to the opposition, it will never criticize the government based on lying and cheating the people. According to the Central Bank of Sri Lanka, it will take at least two years for Sri Lanka to reach a real GDP similar to that of 2018 or before COVID-19. So that, it is a essential to maintain at least 5% annual economic growth throughout. Over the last 6 months, the government has been committed to working towards the welfare improvement of the people, while focusing on capital development projects as well. The government is doing all the above by economizing on limited resources.

The massive challenge ahead is the repayment of foreign debt, while working along the remaining 37 conditions of the IMF bailout. ISB repayments start in 2025, at about US$ 900 million annually, from 2025 to 2028. The bilateral repayment schedule is still kept secret from the public, but it would be about $750 million annually. Sri Lanka pays about $ 1,200 million per year for multilateral debt. It is reasonable to assume that debt payments during 2025-2028 are to be around $ 3 billion per annum. Thereafter, it will increase as lump sum ISB maturities become due. Given the above, it is prudent to have a usable reserve (without eye-washing Yuan swaps) of at least $ 10 billion by 2028. Currently, usable reserve is about $ 4.5 billion. So, it needs to double usable reserves in 3 years. That means, every month, CBSL should buy $ 125 million from the market. That is very challenging, especially once the country enters an economic expansion and expansionary monetary policy stage, which spurs imports. I will not discuss the impact of the recent tariff imposed by the US government on Sri Lanka’s exports. It is indeed a concern about the loan repayment indicated above because exports to the US economy earn US$3 billion annually. The import tax increase by the USA government from 12% to 44%, will undoubtedly impact the US$ 3 billion export income.

Ordinary people hardly know the above, but they are part and parcel of the foreign debt repayment. The government needs funds to repay loans, and at the same time, it has to look after people and the economy without derailing. However, the limited revenue or income is at the center. Running a government is a vast and mounting challenge. Running a government is not like running a political party. Given the above, the task of the AKD/NPP government is like eating curd with a razor, a huge balancing task. It is indeed the reality, but it is not related to the government’s popularity test, or people hardly see it as a measurement of government popularity. However, at the end of the tunnel, it is along the path to the recovery, stability, and sustainability of economic growth for a prosperous economy.

The above must be the government’s popularity test in all senses. It is a long-term perspective on the current path.  Instead, the opposition blames the government for lying and cheating the people and the country. If the opposition is wise and duty-bound, it must understand the facts and figures with which the AKD/NPP government is committed to working for the people and the country’s better future. The popularity test for the government is related to the above, not on the path towards the above.  Regardless of the local elections, the AKD/NPP government will face a popularity test in the future, along the current path.

Conclusion

There are seven key functions for governments, and the AKD/NPP government is not an exception. The AKD/NPP government is functional and accountable. The AKD/NPP government did not come to power seeking popularity, and most people did not vote for it to be popular. The government has done its best, working with the IMF based on its election promises and understanding the reality. Also, people did not expect a miracle within six months. The government looks after the people and the country, economizing limited resources. Majority of the people are happy.  The view that local elections are a popularity test for the government is just a cry of the bankrupt opposition after the political Tsunami last year. If it is acceptable to the IMF, the opposition leader must present his so-called people-friendly version of the IMF program to make him a hero overnight. With Sajith, Namal is lying for 24 hours going around the country. The AKD/NPP government manages the economy skillfully by understanding the ground realities, strengthening and stabilizing the economy. Its top priority should not be the local elections. Irrespective of the outcome of the regional elections, the government is in power and has total control. Starting in 2025, foreign debt repayment is the real challenge for the government, which is hardly known to the opposition in depth, and is unknown to the people. If the opposition is wise and duty-bound, it must understand the facts and figures with which the AKD/NPP government is committed to working for the people and the country’s better future. The actual popularity test for the government is related to the above, not on the path towards the above.  Regardless of the local elections, the AKD/NPP government will face a popularity test in the future, along the current path.

*The writer, among many, worked as the Special Advisor to the Office of the President of Namibia (2006-2012) and was a Senior Consultant with UNDP for 20 years. He was a Senior Economist with the Central Bank of Sri Lanka (1972-1993)