By Dayan Jayatilleka –
A great liberal of the Kennedy era and the top intellectual of the JFK administration, Arthur Schlesinger famously wrote that the US was doomed to fail in Vietnam because US policy in Vietnam was trapped in an eight sided box. Similarly UNP is trapped in a many sided box and has trapped the Yahapalana government in there with it.
(1) Its leader Ranil Wickremesinghe has not led it to victory for almost 25 years.
(2) He will not leave the leadership.
(3) A Leadership Council under him will only devolve defeat on select others and discredit them by having them share the blame for the inevitable defeats at the PC and Presidential polls.
(4) Ranil cannot be ousted because of the UNP Constitution introduced by him in 1994, which overturned the much more democratic one and concentrated decision-making in an entity largely packed with his nominees.
(5) The UNP reformists have been unable to restore the older, democratic and broad-based party Constitution.
(6) The most obvious successors to Wickremesinghe prefer to wait until his total crash in 2020 rather than imitate the great Ranasinghe Premadasa who accepted the UNP leadership in 1988 even while describing his legacy rightly as a “torch burning at both ends”, and had planned to launch a breakaway presidential candidacy (as Sirisena Cooray confirms) had he not been nominated by the party.
(7) UNP front rankers are unable or unwilling to form a “Pohottuwa” equivalent, following in the footsteps of DS Senanayake who formed the UNP, leaving behind the iconic Ceylon National Congress, R. Premadasa who formed the Puravesi Peramuna when the UNP had lost the election of 1970 and the party was deadlocked, Rukman Senanayake who formed the ELJP, and Lalith Athulathmudali and Gamani Dissanayake who formed the DUNF in 1991.
(8) By blocking the only meaningful, moderate reform IN the Yahapalana model that is possible, the UNP has made the radical nationalist replacement OF the Yahapalana government inevitable.
The motion of no-confidence in the Prime Minister will reveal important secrets.
First, it will reveal to the whole country, the political stances, moral values and ethical standards, i.e. the true character, of those who vote one way or another.
Second, it will provide an accurate indication of the political future and electoral fortunes of these parliamentarians. The way they vote on April 4th will be a crucial determinant in how people will vote for them at all elections up to 2020.
Third, it will reveal the direction in which the country will go for many years to come. If the no-confidence motion wins, the country will have a government consisting of the moderate SLFP and liberal nationalist or pragmatic populist UNP dissidents, backed by the Joint Opposition’s formidable phalanx of MPs critically supporting it through a policy dubbed “responsive cooperation” while not holding office. This is the best possible formula for stability and the containment of extremism.
If however, the numbers fall short and the motion is not carried, it will be either the JO and most of the SLFP constituting an enlarged opposition confronting a diminished government, probably of the UNP and TNA, or a JO remaining in opposition while the SLFP is stuck in a political limbo, a never-never land, in which it withers away into electoral marginality rather like the LSSP in 1977. Right now, the SLFP still has a bargaining chip, but the longer it remains with Ranil’s UNP, that bargaining chip dissolves like a lozenge. Right now, the JO-SLPP cannot get more than 102 seats in parliament and the SLFP will get 30, were the results of the local government election be translated into parliamentary terms, but at the very next election that is likely to change, with the JO-SLPP growing as the SLFP and UNP shrink.
If the moderate SLFP does not ally with it on April 4th and beyond, the JO-SLPP will have no choice but to go it alone, until it is able to launch its own Presidential candidate later next year. Though the JO-SLPP may, on current form, require SLFP support to form a government, it must be remembered that the next parliamentary election is to be held AFTER, not before the Presidential election, and once the government loses as it is likely to, the parliamentary election will take place with a JO-SLPP backed candidate having won the Presidential election, compensating for the possible loss of minority votes by generating a Pan-Sinhala tectonic shift of UNP/urban middle class voters.
The UNP is about to fall into a classic trap. Nobody is pushing them into it. They are themselves ready to take a running leap right into the trap.
The UNP has made the same fatal error that Prabhakaran and the LTTE did. Instead of bunching up in 2008-9, the LTTE could have decentralized and dispersed into the jungles as guerrilla columns to fight an unconventional war. They chose, for reasons of pride, to remain as large units and fight a semi-conventional war, defending territory and their ‘Maximum Leader’ Prabhakaran. Eventually they trapped themselves in Nandikadal and provided a “target rich environment”. The UNP is doing the same and operating as an electorally diminishing separate state. The UNP MPs are concentrating themselves in static defense of a nationally unpopular leader and a socially illegitimate cause.
The more the UNP MPs identify themselves with the most unpopular, unelectable leader the UNP has ever produced, and the more the numbers of UNP MPs who identify themselves with him, the easier a target they make at an election. The masses will not vote for them because they supported their leader. That would happen if their leader were popular at the grassroots—as President Premadasa was during the impeachment. The masses will punish them for standing with a leader who is ruining the country and the UNP itself. Their political war has already begun to be lost, with the Local Government elections, and Nandikadal will come either with the Provincial Council elections or the Presidential election of next year.
The electorate will not reward UNP MPs who stand with the PM on this issue, the bond scam. The UNP voters will punish them for not dumping him and liberating the UNP from this deadweight. In fact any UNP MP who votes for Ranil at the no-confidence motion is going to be tainted in the public imagination as someone who has benefited from the bond scam money!
What of the SLFP? Remember the joke about the hen and the pig who passed a café with a board which advertised ham and eggs? The hen said I’m hungry and I’ll bet you are too, so let’s go in and have some breakfast. To which the pig replied, no you go ahead, and I’ll stay back because in my case it would involve a total commitment. The same goes for the no-confidence motion, the UNP and the SLFP.
If the UNP stays loyal to Ranil, nothing changes for the UNP except that it will sink to 20% at the upcoming elections, be crushingly defeated and make a slow recovery under a new leader who will in all probability be Sajith Premadasa. It faces collapse, not extinction.
On the other hand, everything is at stake for the SLFP. The economy has recorded its lowest growth in 16 years. The SLFP is down to its lowest vote ever. If the SLFP stays with Ranil’s UNP, its vote base will shift almost entirely to Mahinda Rajapaksa and its remaining vote will almost certainly drop below double digits. So for the SLFP it is a crisis of survival with the price of remaining with Ranil’s UNP being electoral extinction.
The SLFP is not suicidal except for a handful of Chandrikaistas whose political careers are coming to an end and those who think they can secure UNP nomination and win—which may not prove a safe bet as they will not be the first choice of either the UNP voters or the UNP’s incoming leadership.
The SLFP has to choose in full public view, between supporting the PM’s conduct in the bond scam and opposing it. And it has to do this before its prime audience—the SLFP voters.
If the SLFP doesn’t rebel conspicuously against Ranil on April 4th, who will come for its celebration next month, on May 1st, or rather, who will remain there without melting away to join Mahinda’s crowd on that day?
The secret of the SLFP’s present decline, is that it has pandered to Chandrika while the SLFP voters including in Attanagalla, regard Mahinda’s politics as closer to those of SWRD and Sirimavo Bandaranaike than Chandrika’s openly pro-Ranil, pro-UNP line is. The Rajapaksa policies are felt to be on far more of a continuum with Bandaranaike policies, than Chandrika’s are. She has lost the battle for her parents’ ideological heritage and political space, to Mahinda. The SLFP voters like their blue a dark one, the one that they recall, not the pale blue, turquoise or aquamarine that adorns the SLFP platforms today.
The greater the Ranil-led UNP’s dependence on the TNA at the no confidence vote, the greater the social and electoral backlash against the UNP-TNA bloc (as in 1955-56 and 1965-1970) and the greater the likelihood of a majoritarian nationalist agenda driving the Mahinda Rajapaksa succession for the presidential candidacy, and the inevitable post-Yahapalana successor administration late next year. In Sri Lanka’s endless political karmic cycle, minoritarianism gives birth to majoritarianism and majoritarianism follows minoritarianism “like the wheel, the oxcart”.
Burt / March 28, 2018
In other news:
“Police and politicians backed by the country’s former strongman president Mahinda Rajapaksa joined anti-Muslim riots that rocked Sri Lanka’s Kandy district this month, according to witnesses, officials and CCTV footage reviewed by Reuters.”
wannihami / March 29, 2018
What utter nonsense are you writing Burt, what were you smoking?
Burt / March 29, 2018
I have put it within colon: which means its not me that is saying so.
Are you saying Reuters is publishing without vetting?
Sri / March 28, 2018
Shall we call ourselves, sri lankans? Not by our numbers, but by our birth right?
K.Pillai / March 28, 2018
UNP in crisis Dayan? The country has been in crisis for seventy years. For you UNP-crisis is wishful thinking
SLFP Choices? SLFP is in greater crisis right now. Your suggested choice is surrender to MR. Again wishful thinking.
Sri Lanka’s endless political Karmic Cycle? We are into Karma are we? The next step is some devil exorcism (Thondaman can bring in Experts), copious ‘nool’ tying, trips to South Indian temples – mind boggles.
Your last sentence, in block letters to boot, says it all ~ ” ………In Sri Lanka’s endless political karmic cycle, minoritarianism gives birth to majoritarianism and majoritarianism follows minoritarianism “like the wheel, the oxcart”.
So the minorities should not have been hardworking and industrious? And the present Muslim crisis is all their fault.
How low can you go Dayan?
Native Vedda / March 28, 2018
“The country has been in crisis for seventy years. For you UNP-crisis is wishful thinking”
The country was in terrible crisis on 10th August 1992 the day on which Dayan Jayatilleka was attacked by thugs at the Kanatte cemetery.
Samantha / March 28, 2018
Was it a mistaken Identity
Mugalan / March 28, 2018
If Ranil is bad, why you as a strong supporter of MR wants Ranil to get out.
If Ranil is Bad it is good for rajapakses, hence why go after ranil.
Mr Dyan, your Zip is showing.So long as Ranil leads UNP your dreams will be wet Dreams
Patriot / March 28, 2018
Sri lanka is not a country. It is a get rich quickly scheme; somewhat similar to PONZI established by few families in Cinnamon garden. I t will never be a country because it was founded to preserve the status for ever. It never represents the people, the citizens of that country. It represents the few bogus, corrupt parliamentarians and their families (immediate and extended). It has started to rot from the core. It is not related to any political Karmic cycle. We need to rethink about how long the citizens will be hoodwinked by this project known as Sri Lanka.
DPJ / March 28, 2018
That bloody rascal MARA is entirely responsible for the current chaotic situation in the country.
Harishchandra / March 28, 2018
And its a case of Hobson’s choice for the helpless and ignorant people of this beautiful country.
RP from Canada / March 28, 2018
Dear DJ! There is an international dimension to this issue as well. The coup planned and implemented by a bunch of western politicians and the LTTE friendly diaspora has back fired and international political scientists would take SL as an example to prove that ‘forced changes’ in any country would end up in disaster. How would it go to history books? Can you pen a few words on that. Thanks.
NIM / March 28, 2018
DJ is right. There is no victor’s crown without a planned launch, but it requires visionary leadership with national goal for all the people represented. Royal rights or SB rights are not godly goals being tethered to a non unified evil system of man eating man. Legal and equal protection of the law for all is a must and any other verdict is injustice. This is highway of good kingly govt. Protection of robbers and murderers is participation in their deeds and DJ calls it the political Karmic Cycle with the shifts of voter base. That is not a good cycle into freedom and victory, but only till death do us part. This cycle must be renounced for an enlightened and upward future for all.
Look at the MOTIVES of a different class from politicians, the GMOA so called high class professionals. Falsely accused SAITM with suicidal pressure on H.E. After disruption of private medicine, they offered solution of KDU. After H.E signed cabinet paper, they want to divide SAITM between local and Lond. A/L to grab the latter for their own private twin program, infiltrating SLMC to register. But there is a circus (not cycle) of insane contradicting clowns here. KDU takes paid London A/L, SAITM takes paid London A/L, Colombo state uni. takes paid London A/L in their foreign quota. AP and GMOA go to Britain 1st choice for PG training. So what is this lunatic behavior of GMOA when there are so many raw A/L they can dupe and deceive for monetary gain. But they want well trained SAITM, as sure passes, but they dub as KDU ineligibles to be able to grab them. Sinister to renewed mindsets needed for freedom from captivity, and overcoming victory. SAITM fooled too long.
MR / March 28, 2018
Srilanka is doomed irrevocably by the curse of hundreds of thousands civilians victimised by rulers since Kuveni. Poor DJ will take years to understand this.
Latest News: TNA has joined with EPDP UNP SLFP and EPRLF members and has taken control of several Councils in North. What a country we are living in.!!
Ajith / March 28, 2018
Ranil is not a good leader to UNP. There is no doubt in that. Similarly Mahinda Rajapakse was the worst leader the country ever had because there was a large scale massacre of civilians happened under his regime, first time in the history after independence under Mahinda leadership Muslims were massacred and the nation was branded as the worst human rights violator, freedom of speech and justice denied, journalists were abducted & murdered, war crimes committed and punished by the international community for crimes against humanity. He misused his power to create a wealth for his family. Now he destroyed the SLFP for the sake of power only.
Srilanka’s survival as a country depends on its relationship with India. Srilanka was ruled by India many years and it got independence because of India. Since independence, India determined its political leadership and it is India who brought LTTE, Rajapakse and Ranil into power and it is India who eliminated LTTE and Rajapakse from power and only India can remove Ranil.
Jim softy / March 29, 2018
Ranil is saying he does not care about the party some how he hangs on until the elelction. HE says, even if he were fired, after the elelction he would be the prime minister. Some countries have promised it. Some one had heard a similar story from the spacee at Kiribathi too.