By Mano Ratwatte –
It seems someone in Sri Lanka wasted coconuts engaging in irrational behavior to pray for Hillary’s victory. Logically that action is flawed. The problem is, if such deities exist, and they listen to prayers, they are not American Citizens nor do they have Greencards to influence the US election. It is likely they cannot influence American deities to help a certain candidate to win. So basically precious food was smashed, and wasted to try to seek divine intervention to what really are human thought driven processes. If these Deities can influence elections, it required them to send simultaneous SMS messages and subliminal messages to millions of American voters. Such a waste of a precious commodity.
In a stunning election night, the Republican nominee Trump, secured victory after a string of formerly Democratic states swung his way. Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa all turned red. Nationally, Donald Trump won 47.4% of the vote to Hillary Clinton’s 47.7% – yet this translated into 290 electoral college votes for the Republicans and 228 for the Democrats (BBC)
If President Sirisena’s election was a rainbow coalition of Inclusiveness, Trump’s election was one of clear Exclusionary demographics. White non-Hispanic voters went to Trump by a whopping 58% to 37%. Hillary’s percentage of black votes also fell from Obama’s 93% to 88% and that is massive except when you consider total number of votes cast in the battleground states. The US is racially and economically divided, angry and polarized. Trump neither knows nor cares about Sri Lanka but is likely to defer to advice from the professionals including Keshap. There will be significant changes in the State Department and political appointees of the Obama regime including Samantha Power, and Biswal will no longer get US Tax payer funded trips to Colombo to pressure the regime.
College graduates backed Clinton by a 9-point margin (52%-43%), while those without a college degree backed Trump 52%-44%. In 2012, there was hardly any difference between the two groups: College graduates backed Obama over Romney by 50%-48%, and those without a college degree also supported Obama 51%-47%. White College educated voters also went to Trump by a 4% margin.
The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) may have helped scuttle Democratic nominee’s aspirations to win the Presidency. However she cannot just try to blame that for a series of missteps and the reality than 60% of Americans did not like either candidate. As this writer said it once predicted, it was a Seismic election. A leaked conversation between Mrs. Clinton and some of her key donors suggests that she blames FBI Director Comey, because he reopened the investigation when they discovered her emails in an unrelated investigation into her close confidante Huma Abedin’s estranged husband ex Democratic Congressman the deviant Anthony Weiner; he was being investigated for sexting with a minor. That incident broke her momentum. She had the momentum after the 3 debates but lost it after FBI director Comey made the announcement. Was he doing that to influence the election or to stem threatened leaks from anti Clinton FBI field agents? He was after all a registered Republican who had donated to Republican candidates.
Even though this writer presented many caveats about how she could lose in two opinion columns before, he thought that she might scrape through until the email shocker broke their momentum. That and WikiLeaks damaged her further as people see her as a person that could not be trusted. Even the famous Nate Silver whose statistics many had come to rely heavily on failed. After the debates and scandalous voice recordings and real facts about a narcissistic man’s behavior, his erratic tweets etc., swung the momentum back in her favor. Yet the “Trust Deficit” this writer spoke about before remained and her campaign Goose was cooked.
“If this were another decent honest democratic candidate; even an outright socialist like Bernie Sanders, Trump would stand no chance” is now brilliant hindsight. It is hard to tell but this anti insider, anti -Washington DC, anti – corruption, pro outsider enthusiasm for Trump was so palable. His supporters were far more enthusiastic than Hillary Clinton’s base. This was the angry right equivalency to the angry left Bernie won during the Primaries.
Recap what this writer said previously
The African American vote is a captive vote for the Democrats; but because the total number of blacks who voted in the states that mattered was lower in number, Kerry lost Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and the Election!
Right now, the African American (black) voter enthusiasm level for the Democrat is definitely at a lower level than for it was for Obama. One main reason is was obviously “ one of ours/අපේ කෙනෙක්” and President Obama was a historic first; he created American history more than 140 years after the civil war ended. Educated millennial Black votes and suburban upper class socially liberal white voters around Philadelphia are critical in Pennsylvania for her to win.
She lost Pennsylvania too.
She failed to garner the same response from minorities that Obama managed. In a safe blue state like Wisconsin, overall voter participation was low; in the traditionally black Milwaukee area,60,000 fewer people voted. Reality is that she did not get the same number of African American votes she needed to win the Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, and Michigan. And she failed to get the margin of white votes Obama won. Once Wisconsin’s results came out, this writer new it was all over except for the cliché’d fat lady’s singing part. She could not even hold Michigan. Interestingly during the Primaries Bernie Sanders, for whom this writer proudly cast his vote, won both Michigan and Wisconsin.
Yet it was either hubris or stupidity for Mrs. Clinton not to even campaign in the general election in Wisconsin. Trump sensed something was up and swooped into campaign in those two so called blue wall states. Result? He won those states too. Even after Florida and North Carolina, two key battleground states, went to Trump, she could have been able to win if she held her blue states. She failed to even win in Pennsylvania. That was it. Thus it may be interesting again to look at some of the numbers when complete data comes out.
Latino voters again did not show up in significantly higher numbers to swing Florida to her.
The impact of the Latino vote on the presidential race is lessened by the fact that more than half (52%) of all Latino eligible voters live in the non-battleground states of California, Texas and New York.
The mistake of the Democratic National Congress DNC and their party operatives is based on ignorance and condescending white attitudes. They lump all Spanish speakers people in the same group. That was asinine. Cuban Americans rarely vote for Democrats. Puerto Ricans and Mexican immigrants are so different. Other Hispanic groups are also culturally different. Even after relentless insults of Mexicans she couldn’t carry Florida with its sizeable Latino population. Cuban Americans don’t vote for Liberals because they hate communism, and they ran away from Castro’s abysmal Cuba. Even though US born Cuban Americans may be liberal on social issues, they too are not likely to vote for liberals.
The following extract sums things up in clear terms.
In an election so ugly and so close, one is reluctant to proclaim winners. But it’s clear that there’s a loser — the very notion of the United States of America.
Instead we have populations and geographies that barely seem to belong in the same country, if not on the same planet. The electorate is so divided that many states went for either Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton by lopsided margins. The Northeast was solidly Democratic, with Clinton winning New York, Massachusetts and Vermont with three-fifths of the vote or more. Washington, D.C., heavily black and the seat of the bureaucracy and pundit class, delivered an almost Soviet-style 93% to 4% margin.
On the other side were a series of states where Trump won just as easily, including Tennessee and Kentucky, with three-fifths of the vote, and West Virginia, by a margin of two-to-one – higher than those attained by 2012 GOP presidential candidate Mitt Romney.
Much of the rest of the map has followed the usual patterns: Democratic domination of Illinois and the West Coast, while Republicans held the South. Where the election was decided was in previous battleground states: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.
Some Trump’s biggest margins were in energy states where the fracking revolution created a burst of prosperity. Generally speaking, the more carbon-intensive the economy, the better the Republicans did. These states include Ohio, Texas, Louisiana, Wyoming, Idaho, and especially West Virginia, where he won by a remarkable margin of 68% to 27%. The energy industry could well be the biggest financial winner in the election.
Race, as is often the case, played a major role in the election. For much of the election, commentators, particularly in the dominant Eastern media, seemed to be openly celebrating what CNN heralded as “the decline of the white voter.” The “new America,” they suggested, would be a coalition of minorities, educated workers and millennials.
To be sure, the minority share of the electorate is only going to grow — from less than 30% today to over 40% in 2032 — as more white Americans continue to die than be born. Just between 2012 and 2016, the Latino and Asian electorate grew 17% and 16%, respectively; the white electorate expanded barely 2%.
In Colorado the new minority math was seen, with a strong showing among Latinos, the educated suburbs around Denver and millennials. That may be the future, but now is now. Exit polling nationwide showed Trump won two-to-one among people without a college degree, matched Clinton among college graduates, losing only those with graduate degrees, a group that has voted for the Democrats since 1988. –END QUOTES
Complete data is not out yet to make a comparison to previous elections; yet it was quite clear that she failed to win even a sizeable minority of white votes unlike Obama. It is mistake to think you can cobble together coalition of minorities and a smaller percentage of white votes to win. Obama expended his credibility and lost trying to cobble the coalition he created for his victories. This election was a result of angry white voters, the blue collar typically democratic voters, even college educated voters breaking for Trump. It is change that people wanted like how they wanted change with Obama however this mandate is not as clear as what Obama received in terms of total votes won by the candidates.
Trump has been a bit conciliatory and even said he will keep parts of the Obamacare health insurance policy intact. It is hoped he will not toss out the 20 million people who managed to get health insurance through Obamacare because most of those who will get hurt are those who voted for him. He says his priorities are Healthcare and Border Security (correctly so) and the economy.
Mexico may not pay for the wall but both oddly immediately after Trump won, Canada and Mexico have also expressed a desire to revisit the controversial North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) that caused the loss of thousands of manufacturing jobs in the USA. Perhaps he will be the jolt the US needed? Hope the racial bias attacks and insults will dissipate soon, and the hate will not continue into his presidency.
Turns out the Wall will after all be Erected after all; perhaps it will be like India’s longest border wall of death along its border with Bangladesh. The “Hindus for Trump” Indians will be thrilled with that.