15 December, 2017

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How Will The SL Electorate Behave ?

By Kusal Perera

Kusal Perera

Kusal Perera

We would not be talking of a decent and a free election this 2015 January. Minister Maithripala Sirisena was once heard saying he could even go back to the village in a bus and stay in his old house. But most would not feel comfortable taking such decisions and that makes this election a very decisive election. Especially to those who are in the regime or decide to remain with the regime. A total voting population of around 15 million as of now would decide if they should go or stay back. This presidential election is therefore turning out to be a keenly contested election with a clear division between pro and anti regime sentiments already gaining momentum. At the last presidential polls in January 2010, from a constituency of 14 million, over 74% voted, totalling 10.5 million voters. That same percentage could be expected to vote this coming January, or even go up to around 78%, depending on how the Rajapaksa election campaign is rolled out. IF with less violence, there’s bound to be heavy voter participation.

Keeping a safe margin for all unwanted possibilities, around 70% should vote this time at a minimum. Any number beyond this would be to the advantage of the Opposition and not for Rajapaksa, unless there is a repeat of “Wayamba PC polls” in selected districts. If 70%, it would mean around 10.5 million voters going to polls this time too.

The trillion Yuan question therefore is how will they decide the final results?

If Tamil and Muslim votes in the North-East matter, Jaffna district has around 520,000 votes, Vanni around 205,000,  Batticoloa around 240,000 and in Trincomalee and Digamadulla about  90,000 votes. In the 03 districts Jaffna, Vanni and Batticoloa only 26, 40 and 64 per cent respectively, had polled at the 2010 January presidential elections.

Maithripala Sirisena

Maithripala Sirisena

In Nuwara Eliya district there are 250,000 votes of which roughly about 30% (75,000) are Sinhala village votes in Kotmale and Walapane electorates.

In whole of South, leaving North-East, there are about 1.2 million Muslim votes scattered and in patches among Sinhala people.

Therefore, if the Minority vote of 2.48 million is counted out and if 60% plus vote at the 2015 January elections, it would be 1.5 million minority votes. This deducted from the previously estimated total poll of 10.5 million (70%), then the Sinhala South would divide 09 million votes between the two main candidates and may be less than 30,000 in total going to other tiny campaigners. That would mean 5,250,000 plus 01 votes to be won to win the elections on the first count for any of the 02 main candidates. Can that be achieved from the 09 million votes in the South alone ? For a clean victory from only the South the calculation is, one needs 58.3% or 5.25 million Sinhala votes.

At the 2010 presidential polls, with war victory still the main deciding factor in the Sinhala constituency and with majority Southern votes plus Eastern Muslim votes also going the Rajapaksa way, he polled 6.02 million (57.9%) votes. Four years down the line, has he been able to retain this voter base? That has the plain and only possible answer “NO”. Very evident it was in Uva PC elections, where the Sinhala population is well over 85%. The exodus there from the UPFA was well over 20%.  Since then, Rajapaksa has not been able to manage any of the conflicts within his regime, leaving defections to the Opposition that in every damages his image. The JHU, though with no significant vote base any more, nevertheless demoralises the UPFA and tarnishes his image with scathing attacks that adds new venom to anti Rajapaksa sentiments. So is the defection of young MP Vasantha Senanayake from Gampaha. Even if other defections predicted, including General Secretary of the SLFP Minister Sirisena and Rajitha Senaratne is averted, the damage on the moral of the Rajapaksa regime supporters is severe. Everything his campaign managers do in salvaging the situation, from posters claiming the Pope’s visit will bless his HE Rajapaksa to stoning the temple of Rathana Thero, only adds to the advantage of the Opposition where votes matter.

With all such negatives adding on, leaving the drain off at 20% as it was in Uva would mean, Rajapaksa would only poll a maximum of 4.8 million votes, less almost half a million votes to reach the required 50% plus one.

This therefore means, the 2015 January presidential election will be decided by the 1.5 million Tamil and Muslim votes, if 60% of them go to polls. The role of the TNA thus is important and that advantage is with the UNP Candidate (possibly Ranil W) and not with Rajapaksa. A fact that would also decide how free and fair this election would be, not only in the Sinhala South but also in the North. But this gap of half million votes that President Rajapaksa would be short of is only now, when the race just began. What if it increases with more defections and less interest in supporting a losing candidate ?

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Latest comments

  • 9
    1

    The party that promises to remove army rule in he North and East will get the Tamil votes. The Northern Provincial council is totally disregarded by the government because the govt. wants to give importance to cronies like Douglas Devananda in the north and Karuna in the East.If the next government does the same there will be no peace in this island for ever.

    • 2
      1

      Kusal Perera –

      RE: How Will The SL Electorate Behave ?

      They will behave based on what you tell them.

      So, you need to tell them Common sense items. Do they want the Rajapaksa Medamulana Dynasty? Is Sri Lanka a Republic?

      How. Write, Print, Publish and distribute the common sense Pamphlet.

      That is what Thomas Paine did in 1776. You can to that today in Sri Lanka in 2014.

  • 2
    15

    There you go,,

    Kusul already given the Presidency to Ranil Wickremasinghe, with the 1,5 Million Velllala TNA vote.

    Ranil’s new Deputy , Keselwatta Kid admitted on a E platform in Hambantota ,that his Dad gave Arms and Money to Mahatthaya.

    But his leader Ranil went even further and gave Mahathaya’s Thavalar full control of the North and the East.

    How fitting is that Thavalar’s stooges, the TNA now giving their vote, lock stock and barrel to Thavalar’s mate Ranil..

    Wonder what happened to Mahathaya !!!!

    • 0
      0

      Kusal is definitly not promoting the Sinalese prabakaran.TNA should -just to fix the Sinhalese.Set them back by 100 years to work thier way out of chinese slavery.

    • 2
      0

      K.A Sumanasekera

      Have you bought your green shirt and trousers?

      Whatever you do please don’t use a hot iron rod on Gota’s posterior to impress the UNP.

    • 1
      0

      K.A Sumanasekera

      “But his leader Ranil went even further and gave Mahathaya’s Thavalar full control of the North and the East.”

      But Hindians recovered it from Thalaivaru with VP’s support and gave it to MR clan. Now it seems Hindians are trying to recover “their” land from MR clan.

      I have a long term plan to recover it from Hindians, Thamilans, and Sinhalavans.

  • 7
    2

    I would rather request the Carrot eating section of the voters to come out of their dumb habit !

  • 0
    0

    The Tamils, Muslims and the Christians of all denominations will decide who the next President would be. Mahinda and Gota will likely will,likely end up before the ICC.

  • 1
    1

    Ye we all Know that Pres. Premadasa requested many police officer to surrender, But their killers are with the government holding ministerial post and chief ministers post and the local police force forced to guard them.
    This is the Mahinda Chinthanaya.

  • 1
    0

    Relax Comrades, the election result will be decided by Gota.

  • 0
    1

    This election is a great opportunity for the TNA to become a player in determining the destiny of the Tamil people rather than being a passive observer which it was, for the past 5 years. The TNA need to field it’s own candidate and ask the people of the North and East to treat this election as a non binding referendum on the question of self determination. If Mahinda or the other common opposition candidate are able to secure 50% plus one vote , the chances for such a scenario is almost nil as Kusul’ s analysis show, the Tamils are not going to lose anything. On the contrary if the polls go into the second round then the TNA will have a strong bargaining chip to deal with two main contenders and other interested parties. They can persuade the West and the Indians who desire a regime change more than the Tamils do, to underwrite any eventual deal which will bring some immediate relief to the sufferings of the people of North and East like troops reduction ending the land grab. At the same time the Tamil people’s mandate at this non binding referendum will send a strong message to the international community and India to advocate a political solution that satisfy the legitimate aspirations of the Tamils
    It is a win – win opportunity for the Tamils. Already some constituent parties in the TNA are pushing the leadership to consider this proposal. But as usual the leadership is reluctant to take a firm decision .

    • 0
      1

      ‘They can persuade the West and the Indians who desire a regime change more than the Tamils do’

      The TNA (and the diaspora who spread hatred and division) can go to hell.

      • 1
        0

        taraki

        “The TNA (and the diaspora who spread hatred and division) can go to hell.”

        Tanks

        Are you inviting them to where you are at present?

        The best thing for you is to go back to your mother country South India, which some describe as another hell on earth. When you go take your Tamil brethren with you.

        • 1
          0

          Dear Native,

          Not only Vellalas don’t want to go there but don’t want to have anything to do with them even on our territory.

          Even your Diaspora dudes want duals to come to us , when the Real McCoy Eelaam is in Madurai.

          How sad …..

  • 2
    0

    Kusal,
    Very good. Short and factual analysis. I very much liked the ” TRILLION YUAN question …..”.
    Since 1948 the Ceylon / Srilanka Political Function except for first few years, never had a rising curve. That few years too were tainted with Citizenship act introduced by DS.

    Then as Dayan ( D J ) often writes , the downward curve continued because of SWRD’ s Sinhala only and since then never had a turning point to take the curve upwards for the whole of Sri Lanka. May be in relative terms , SWRD brought the turning point or point of inflexio at the expense of the minorities.

    Sadly for the whole of Sri Lanka Function none of the variables introduced in 1972, 1975, 1977, 1987, 2002, 2005 and 2010 brought the curve upwards. Will the 2015 Presidential Election bring any upward trend to whole of Sri Lanka ? I do not think so. Because the regime has started to play the Sinhala Buddhist supremacy and war victory cards in the South much better than DA Rajapakse’s Guru SWRD did. That means MaRa’ s victory will take whole of Sri Lanka into point of no return and into the orbit of one party rule for many more years.

    Not only the 2nd and 3rd class minorities are doomed the whole country will be doomed. With Go
    Ra ‘ s Army ready to quell any uprising even if it is brought in by the enlighten Sinhalese Youths in the future.

    PS : Ambedkhar Reborn just returned from Nalanda in Bihar after attending a dreamed seminar on “18 pearls string of China to contain Hindia.

  • 1
    0

    great stuff kusal , every body is predicting a marginal victory under a minimum justice , what if that minimum expected justice is not prevailed , example , unexpected riots/chaos in the north and east on the polling day , unofficial curfew , mass voter intimidation ! who is there to control the situation ? as usual our clown election commissioner would say , he will appoint a commission and deal with it according to it’s findings , that would would be the end of story.

    what about the other UPFA weak areas in the rest of the country ? what are the contingency plans opposition have ? can they expect impartial police service under the prevailing conditions ?

    how many international election monitors going to deployed around the country by that clown Deshapriya scarecrow? after all those are the only people whom we can rely on , isn’t it ?

    MR is fully equipped with every thing , i mean virtually any thing , his advisers must have/ will have advised about the impending danger , he is not going to give up his power prematurely , that easily ! can the opposition take a another chance ? it will not do any good just complaining about gross election violation , as usual opposition would say “we are going to courts to settle the matter” .

    opposition can’t expect any justice from the current regime , it needs to have various strategic plans , contingency plans to counter attack any eventuality , question is , are they ready to face the challenge ???

  • 1
    0

    If there is a strong sense of unity of purpose amongst the various opposition groups it is bound to groundswell a formidable force even if they March separately and strike together!

    The ominous signs are that there is going to be a BIG change soon! Nobody wants unstoppable corruption to continue! Nobody wants to ring the death knell for democracy and instal a familial dictatorship for ever!

    Sengodan. M

  • 3
    0

    Mr.Perera

    How SL electorate behave . They will behave as they have always done and that is they will vote with their HEART and not with their HEAD despite the impending disaster facing the Country.
    There is only one issue that will decide the outcome and that is the Race issue. I wont be surprised if a few bombs go off in Colombo and other places killing innnocent Sinhalese all blamed on the reemergence of the Tigers. King Mahintha will be prepared to sacrifice a few of his his own to win the election.
    No one plays the Race Card better than MR and that will be the deciding factor.

  • 0
    1

    “This presidential election is therefore turning out to be a keenly contested election with a clear division between pro and anti regime sentiments already gaining momentum”

    This is the rhetoric we heard after Ranil’s pada yatra and then the unwxpected happened…….
    MR pipped him to the post.

    What we observe today is the colombo factor.
    The same Colombo factor was misread by UNP & Ranil then as well.

  • 0
    0

    Like the color of his hair and moustache, like his display of false affection towards babies and children in public places, Mahinda Rajapaksa has nothing authentic about himself especially his words or deeds. The biggest lie about him is that he believes in democracy and human rights. Kusal is right – there is no chance he can triumph in a gilmart free Presidential Election. That he will bow to the will of the People is wishful thinking, and to engage in such is downright folly.

    The Ruling Clan have committed a litany of crimes ranging from the misappropriation of public funds, to murder, including the brutal slaying of Prabhakaran’s kid, to the violation of human rights, and genocide. There is no way the Ruling Clan are going to hand over Power, and end up in jail.

    It is particularly for an eventuality such as losing an election like this one, that the Armed Forces have been expanded, and colossal sums of money spent – Gotabaya is standby to stage a coup d’état at short notice.

    The Leadership of the UNP, JVP, TNA, DP, and the rest of the Opposition need to meet now and formulate a strategy to counter such a threat – muscle with muscle and bullet with bullet. At the same time, Something like SWRD’s Pancha Maha Balavegaya should be mobilized to do their work at grassroots level. There is no other way. Sacrifice is inevitable. Mobilize. Be prepared.

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