23 September, 2020

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The 20A: Elections & Numbers

By Mano Ratwatte

Mano Ratwatte

Mano Ratwatte

The current parliament has run its due course. The character of the next Parliament is likely to be different from the one from 2010. Everyone is talking about the 20A. 19A was an excellent starting point thanks to one simple remarkable Buddhist man now sitting as President.

People want to reform that electoral system. This Parliament has 225 members. After comparing the following numbersA shouldn’t we ask the leaders, is such a large number of MPs necessary if more powers are to be devolved to the provinces? This should give us an idea about different Assemblies in selected democracies. 225 seems plenty for Sri Lankan considering the extraordinary amount of State funds that go to support them and the massive benefits they accrue.

Name of Country, Pop and Number of Seats in the Parliament or Assembly

  1. Bangladesh, 156 million,  350 unicameral
  2. Britain, 64 million  650 but more unique by having a House of Lords too ; no written constitution!
  3. France  66.03 million,  577, But also has a unique executive Presidency
  4.  Germany  80.62  million, 637, also has a Chancellor elected by Bundestag
  5. India,  1.25 BILLION, 545 including 2 reserved seats for Anglo-Indians;
  6. Japan, 127.3 Million, 242  unicameral
  7. S.Korea, 50.22 Million, 300 unicameral
  8. Taiwan, 23.37m Million, 113 , halved their seats to 113 in 2004 by vote in Parliament; incredible!
  9. USA, 318 Million, 437 but has a unique bicameral system with a powerful 100 member Senate. US is different in how much power each State has
  10. Sri Lanka, 20.48 Million, 245 Seats plus 9 provincial governments with lots of perks, car permits and the whole shebang.

*(Sourced from Wiki and other internet quick searches)

Census data

CIA estimates/Sri Lanka Census bureau (http://www.statistics.gov.lk/PopHouSat/CPH2011/index.php?fileName=Key_E&gp=Activities&tpl=3) and (https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ce.html) show the following break down

Sinhalese 74.9%, Sri Lankan Tamil 11.2%, Sri Lankan Moors 9.2%, Indian Tamil 4.2%, other 0.5% (2012 est.)

Buddhists 70.1% Hindu 12.6%, Islam 9.7%, Roman Catholic 6.2% and Other Christian1.4%

Concerns

The Elections commission website (www.slelections.gov.lk) has a great record of results of previous elections including the 1965, 1970 and 1977 . Unfortunately the site does not have a tabulation of percentages won at each Parliamentary election before 1970.

Uva electionsBefore other concerns being raised by purely ethnic/racial and smaller parties how come no one is talking about the disproportionate number of female representation? 2012 partial census reveals there are 10.72 Million females and 10.06 Million males in Sri Lanka. Where are the voices representing women?

Other concerns raised by some smaller parties(for their advantage) is that a switch to a straight forward first past the post (FPP) might disenfranchise smaller parties. Barring the 1956, 1970 and 1977 elections, the two major parties have split the seats in a not so lopsided manner outside the North. The danger of elections being held on the FPP will be that the party that is trending at a particular period might get lopsided majorities in Parliament and hence act like Overlords as in 1970 and 1977. Smaller parties cannot win seats unless it is an ethnic party in a mono-ethnic seat (North) by FPP if they do not have a no-contest pact; that has happened before. Is it more prudent to have the election under the old PR rather than FPP for now?  Remember how a regime used a “referendum” to extend the life of a 5/6th majority Parliament through sheer intimidation?

Minorities, in areas where they are the super majority will always vote for “our guy” but historically despite false accusations hurled towards Sinhalese painting them all as racists; Sinhala seats have voted for the guy representing their party rather than the person. A good example is Balangoda Even when MLM Aboosally lost in 1965 he barely lost by 3,224 votes getting 43.2% of the votes). In 1977 wave, when he contested again the Sinhala Buddhist majority voted him in with a whopping 10.85% margin and then again in 1989 UNP won Balangoda by 61.06% of the vote. During the CBK led wave of 1994 the UNP managed to win Balangoda seat by a 50.8% margin but by then the demographic pattern of the birthplace of Mrs. Sirimavo Bandaranaike had altered significantly too with net inward migration of Muslim refugees from the war zones. If PR were used in 1970 and 1977, the majorities would not been lopsided and a more representative democracy would have prevailed on matters of critical importance such as constitutional reform.

Some numbers gleaned from that website;

Elections

Perhaps PR plus a number of reserved seats such as in the Indian Lok Sabha is a good solution? How about 3 reserved seats for Malay, Burgher and Native Vedda groups as well? These important segments of society can never be represented by elections; so why not recognize their role as participants in a more inclusive Parliament ?

With PR, with its pluses and minuses may be better for a more balance Parliament. The biggest Plus is that definitely that the major representative parties cannot get massive steamroller Parliamentary majorities; the minus is that it will cut into minority vote blocs if a strict proportional system is implemented based on population percentages. No one will ever be happy. Minorities who want larger representation bigger than their numbers will be unhappy if PR or seat allocation is done on population percentages because they may lose seats. Table below displays numbers from Presidential elections; from it, another picture emerges. The grand ole party of Sri Lanka is likely to garner more votes if the opposition is split into camps between Mr. Sirisena and Mr. Rajapakse, even if the UNP goes it alone.

Elections 1

Choices

In terms of democracy, freedom of expression, strong institutions of government, a strong independent public service, an assurance of freedom to vote as they please and not lose their job, that the UNP was any better than the SLFP/UPFA in the past 4 decades or vice versa.

The advantage and additional value the UNP brings is that the UNP is pro Capitalist while the SLFP still seems to linger in a semi-feudal stage; but both parties never having a history of grassroots democracy. Right now, the country needs a pro-capitalist outlook to last and it needs to reduce nepotism (seen in this regime too) and crony capitalism. Stable democracies, even the ones which arose from communist dictatorship (E.Europe) followed a path of capitalist based development. Unfortunately, because Sri Lankan society as a whole is still feudalistic, the so-called capitalists in the UNP themselves tend to be regressive, not only in their actions but also in their outlook. Until a nation reaches the mature democratic age, prerequisite of which is capitalist economic development, there will always be partisan politics.

Promises

If promises are to be believed then all parties should not have on their slate, the unsavory and violent and corrupt elements of the past.

Incumbents have earned a lifetime pension; they have duty free car permits; Isn’t it amazing to see the number of BMWs, Jaguars, Land-Rovers and Range-Rovers which are considered expensive even in the USA, many other SUVs, Volvos, accompanying necessary chauffeurs and phalanxes of bodyguards varying in number based on their self importance. That culture of entitlement is not likely to change even under a new Parliament no?

Remittances from the blood sweat and tears of Sri Lankan labour suffering in the Middle East is the reason such privileges can be offered our MPs. How about duty free permits for at least a Maruti permit for house maids who risk being raped, and abused just to remit two to three hundred dollars per month, which is soon squandered by their drug or alcohol addicted husbands? Net inflow from foreign remittances is over $7 Billion per year. Whose money is this for them to award themselves all these perks? Are that many seats really needed at Centre?

Will the past be prologue? Should anyone lose their house, job, limb or life for voting one way or the other in a democracy? Sri Lanka isn’t a mature democracy but best is yet to come.

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Latest comments

  • 1
    0

    There is no justification to increase the number of seats in the parliament. Instead, more power should be devolved to the periphery ( provincial councils) to make democracy more meaningful.
    A number of matters, including development, unless they are of a national concern could be handled efficiently at the provincial level.
    Of course, we should have a better quality of leaders for that!
    Sengodan. M

  • 0
    0

    The article and the responses are promoting political instability in Sri lanka.

    but, instead of giving priority to minority religious fractions and tribal fractions, it is good isea to give some recognition to women, because women are 50% of the population in Sri lanka.

    • 0
      0

      Jim Softy,

      When I referred to provinces, I referred to ALL the nine provinces in the country and not to North and East alone. Only when people like you give up your parochial views, there will be some democratic progress in this country!

      Sengodan. M

    • 0
      0

      If women are 50% of the population, credible women candidates should have no problem in being elected !

      This article has substance and content that is of interest.

      To accuse it of promoting political instability is absurd.

  • 1
    0

    We often see most of seats in the parliament are empty. Only a few members attend the sessions. Suggest publishing a list of attendance
    No of sessions held, No attended for each MP every year. We can use it when we use our Manape next time

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