24 September, 2020

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Quick Glance #UvaPC2014; Presidential Polls For MR, Now Suicidal

By Kusal Perera

Kusal Perera

Kusal Perera

“With all the thuggery and State patronising that reminds one of CBK’s Wayamba PC elections, Uva PC elections ; my forecast is (made on 14 Sept) – Moneragala (03 seats extra this time) : UPFA 08, UNP 05, JVP 01 and Badulla (03 seats less now) – UPFA 10, UNP 07 & JVP 01 – Total UPFA 18, UNP 12, JVP 02 With a majority of just 04, what would be the repercussions to the UPFA IF this comes right ?”

I was almost there, except in Badulla, where a single seat had been swapped in favour of UNP, making it UPFA 09, UNP 08 & JVP 01. That makes the scenario far more gripping for the UPFA. And some one asked me, what would happen at the Presidential elections, if Uva is read as a national indicator ? I would conclude, its suicidal now for this regime to think of an early election, presidential or parliamentary.

mahindaFew factors that would help conclude, it would be suicidal for President Rajapaksa to contest presidential polls in a few months or in the near future are –

  1. the social mood that this results create is not one of victory, but that of political defeat. Having gone into a stronghold and then to come out with a crash from over 72.3 percent and 25 PC Members in 2009 to 52.8 per cent and 17 PC Members, is no small crash. This would now create a soft corner for the UNP among big business. Funds will not be hard to find. State bureaucrats would now feel uncomfortable stooging and carrying out political directives as they did during the past 05 years. These State officials will not go the whole hog now. This result would create a defiant mood among UNP rank and file too and that makes local mobilising less difficult for the UNP in future electoral battles.
  2. This proves that it is no easy game to go with “ONLY” Sinhala-Buddhist votes even for this Rajapaksa regime. In fact, what the UNP leadership fails to understand is that, even in 2009 May when the war was declared over, Sinhala village youth and rural people did not run around with “Lion” flags, force feeding passers by with “Kiribath”. That was in Colombo where “urban remnants” were politically hired by extreme Sinhala elements and may be in few major towns too. In fact when JHU fielded saffron robes, rural voters did not vote for them. It was only the Colombo Sinhala middle class and the city traders who voted for them. This time too, in Badulla, it was not the Sinhala voter who gave the Rajapaksas the edge over UNP. It was Estate Tamil votes that gave the edge. This is quite clear with 03 CWC candidates winning among the 09 in Badulla.
  3. Another interesting fact the UNP can learn if its want to, from this Uva PC elections is that Sajith P is no valid factor outside his little world in Hambantota, despite what media Maharajas want the Sinhala South to believe. IF Sajith was a heavy factor for the UNP to gather momentum, Moneragala should have gained more votes than what it gained – 31.9 p.c. Without Sajith P, in Badulla where Harin F’do led the resurrection of the UNP, he touches 45 p.c. Sajith can now be easily forgotten.
  4. Muslim leaders in the MR government have been completely rejected by their own people. They have no clout to even bargain now. The coalition of Muslim parties (SLMC & ACPC) that brought Hakeem and Rishad Badiyudeen together to stop anti Rajapaksa Muslim votes going UNP, failed miserably getting just 10,600 votes from both Badulla and Moneragala.
  5. While the Govt. alliance crashed from 72 p.c to 52.8 p.c, the UNP had a huge leap in both districts ; Badulla from 25.8 p.c to 44.8 p.c and in Moneragala from 15.5 to 31.9 p.c. Taking the whole Uva province, the UNP leaped from 22.3 p.c to 38.4 p.c.

This was while the Rajapaksa regime abused every State resource, privileges and the space to violate law. They in fact over ruled the Election Commissioner with a Court ruling and distributed 2,500 rupees each as “drought relief” to 100,000 people. Yet the anti regime trend grew conspicuously very large.

What is also important is that, when an anti regime frustration is galvanised into a political trend, the advantage accrues with the larger opposition party, taken as that, which could defeat the regime. This was seen when the JVP lost all its campaign glitter, with a final outcome of only 5.6 p.c. in Uva and 02 PC Members, 01 each from Badulla and Moneragala districts.

With a gradually shrinking popularity of Rajapaksa, the UNP can now safely expect a 40 plus p.c. to begin their presidential campaign in Sinhala South. This is no joke for the Rajapaksas to gamble at a presidential election. IF Ranil W throws out all advice from his few stupid Sinhala freaks and presents a democratic programme that would be acceptable to all religious and ethnic minorities and the TNA (immediate replacement of present N&E Governors with civilians of TNA’s choice, full and effective implementation of LLRC Recommendations, etc.) to begin negotiations on, the UNP would gain the balance requirement of 11 plus p.c. without much difficulty. The UNP can in fact expect over 52 p.c at a national poll, on such an accommodative platform.

This makes it suicidal for President Rajapaksa now, to go for a presidential poll, even if his horoscope says the going is good.

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Latest comments

  • 17
    0

    This is a more sensible analysis than Dayan’s ‘The Morning After…’ hangover.

    • 11
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      Dayan´s chethanas (second thoughts) are not good – That is why he cant bring any kind of good analysis that we could consider as balanced. His days are gone. Nobody let alone my dog would have any respect towards DJ any more. My DOG would rather wave his tail more towards to UNP, JVP and DP – coalition of the new kind.

  • 5
    10

    Kusal is wrong.

    Villagers celebrated the war victory. Not by the pompous tactics of Colombo people but going to temples and quietly celebrating. If he is unaware of it, he is not in SL.

    4 seat lead is not slender because many more from the UNP will cross over to get provincial ministry posts.

    2005 to 2010 MR didn’t even have the majority in parliament! But crossovers added to his group.

    How did Banda win the 1956 election? Sinhala votes.

    How did JR win the 1982 election just months after Jaffna library caught fire? Tamil votes? No.

    How did MR win 2/3 in 2010?

    • 11
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      Nasallaka, you are such a fool not to realize, why MR is loosing all the support, ‘cos buying MP opposition to get the 2/3 majority to do all the up democratic acts. Now his day dream days are coming to an end. The gangrene has set in and MARA, GORA, Basil, NAMAL, and the band can only aggravate that with the help Hora CJ. It’s a matter of time. At least when the warning light is flashing, these fools will have to be cautious or else they would crash into oblivion with their SATAKA.
      MARA can now try bringing GORA into Parliament if he wants to crash land right away.

  • 6
    1

    Does this Uva Election result indicates the peoples’ wish to “change the pillow to cure the headache?” To me it looks like.

  • 8
    1

    Dear Kusal Perera –

    1. “I would conclude, its suicidal now for this regime to think of an early election, presidential or parliamentary.”

    2. “the UNP would gain the balance requirement of 11 plus p.c. without much difficulty. The UNP can in fact expect over 52 p.c at a national poll, on such an accommodative platform.”

    3. “This makes it suicidal for President Rajapaksa now, to go for a presidential poll, even if his horoscope says the going is good.”

    Thank you for your Predictions of Sept 14th and thanks for this succinct analysis.

    You forgot one item in the analysis. The rate of decline of the UPFA voter base, and the rate of climb of UNP voter base. So, the UPFA is likely to lose support , as time goes on, and even though suicidal, may still call for an early election. A year from now, UPFA mat lose another 5%, and the Rajapaksa Curse can be terminated, by the people, who were fooled.

    Looks like, that is what the Presidential astrologers are calling for. ( Never Mind, Astrology first developed in the Middle East, based on the Geocentric model, is subject to error, and how would relate earthly events to the position of the heavenly bodies?)

    UPFA voters at Monaragala reject Rajapaksa family.

    It is time, the nation Rejects this Family NOW!

    http://www.lankatruth.com/home/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=7637:upfa-voters-at-monaragala-reject-rajapaksa-family&catid=36:top-stories&Itemid=124

    44231 who were among those who voted for the UPFA at the Uva PC election have voted against the Rajapaksa family rule. At the PC election in 2009 out of the 159,837 votes polled by the UPFA Sasheendra Rajapaksa received 136,697 preference votes. It was 81% of the number of votes UPFA polled.

    This time UPFA polled 140,850 votes from Monaragala District and the number of preference votes Mr. Rajapaksa polled was only 96,619. 44,231 voters for the UPFA have refrained from casting their preference vote to Mr. Sasheendra Rajapaksa. Compared to 2009, 18,987 people have refrained from voting the UPFA this time.

  • 2
    4

    Percy is a political fox well tempered, he will and must go for the kill. He will go for presidential elections and will win . All the pundits can repent, cause there is no common opposition, the greatest blessing Percy has at his disposal. Even if there is a common candidate what would be the economic policy and agenda in order to abolish ep?

  • 1
    1

    It is an analysis of well known style of text book type. That has not place in Lanka.

    1. Problems is, isn’t Uva was to test the water and bring the EP election in time? So now we know the depth. Isn’t it suggesting “Earlier the better”? Let us think, If not within near future, will it be never?
    2. My opinion is, conduct now, if it goes wrong, Nationalize when UNP crows is week to oppose with street violence. If waited, The street protest can topple even a army government.
    3. “This time too, in Badulla, it was not the Sinhala voter who gave the Rajapaksas the edge over UNP. It was Estate Tamil votes that gave the edge. This is quite clear with 03 CWC candidates winning among the 09 in Badulla.” This is not a real indicator. We know how UPFA cane to opposition instead of UNP(When there no Tamil Parties to oppose TNA”. The easiest thing in Lanka is stealing Tamils votes. You can Print a fake “Uthayan” or even stage a dangerous accident of attempting on CWC, heads. Anyway, Thondaman drunkard will on UNP on the next election. Uva, WP, NP and EP are not the real test. There Tamils votes are there. They tend to go with Tamils. Their 2nd choice is UNP(any Tamil did not vote to CWC, probably, voted to UNP, irrelevent on Drunkard Thodaman’s party association. That would tell, Rural Sinhala Neighborhood is still an uphill battle for UNP. NCP’s and CP’s elections can not be completely discounted so quickly like that.

    So the solution is, early election. After the election, if it is lost, there will 2 years to take care of the winners before they come and claim the chair. (Even JR, Chandrika all left the country one time). There is a lot of training past tigers for this type of needs. There is trend in recruiting forcefully Tamils in Army too. “Choolian Kumpi Summa Aadathu”. Somebody has to see why so many Tamils girls were force trained, when many went insane and admitted at hospitals too.

  • 3
    1

    Over to K A Sumanasekera for his much awaited opinion on this

    • 1
      3

      Much awaited by whom. Donkeys ?

      • 2
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        Ram

        “Much awaited by whom. Donkeys ?”

        No but by Lankeys.

  • 4
    0

    1 Defeat of the LTTE was celebrated in villages by organized people. May be they were the government supporters .Kusal does not know it as he is a person from Colombo.
    2 Can Kusal safely say the UNP has a 40% voter base throughout the Sinhala South just because it was able to get that percentage from Uva.
    3 I believe one reason that the UNP was able increase its votes due to its apparent unity .As such Sajith impact cannot be neglected in UNP’s forward march.
    4 Yes it was due to the support of the Tamils that the UPFA was able to get a slim majority in the Uva province.
    5 Uva election is the beginning of the decline of the government and the beginning of the rise of the UNP.
    6 It is good good for the country and the UNP if the UNP understands that Ranil is incapable to defeat Mahinda at the next presidential election.
    7 Uva results clearly say that this government can be defeated at the next presidential election in the event a non party powerful common candidate is supported by the Opposition.

  • 4
    0

    Sinhalese and Muslims have rejected the race card and
    it’s great news for all.’Walk the talk’ is what matters
    most and Harin just did that.Kusal is not perfectly
    right to say that Sajith could be forgotten partly due
    to his poor performance in Moneragala.It’s hard to
    work out the message and display of Ranil with Sajith
    didn’t go a long way,it worked and it should continue
    because at least one hurdle to victory is over and one
    less subject for the regime against UNP.Harin has done
    a great job to qualify for a top position in the
    party.This is the time for the party to do it so that
    confidence in the party for the youth could increase.

  • 0
    1

    I cant see a big victory for any body. 38% is not a good percentage for UNP when they have obtained more than 50% in every election except in 1956 prior to 1994. Even in last presidential elections the common candidate obtained more even when discounting for JVP 5% static percentage for more than 3 decades . (except peaks , or surges occasionally)
    Any person would know that under PR 53% is good and this is what UNP had when JR contested.
    I com

  • 2
    0

    Kusak you are somewhat correct in your analysis. Rajapaksa used his powers to get the vote. If the election was free from government forces UPFA should have lost the election as Namal &Co wanted to put a dent on Shasindra’s profile for what happened in the Southern PC Election.

    Rajapaksa is now on notice, but to beat him at the Presidential election ( it is my opinion he is not eligible to contest) or anyone from Rajapaksa regime, the opposition parties should get together. I was working for MR in 2005 election, and witness how JVP did the organization of all MR’s election meeting. As JVP, DP and other parties can get voters it is a very important thing for all opposition parties to get together and promise the Nothern PC to give a new governor and people in the North and East a life without interference .

  • 2
    0

    Rajapaksalaata Lamborghini, mahajanathaawata bada gini

  • 0
    2

    To gauge whether Harin has set a trend for coming up elections, one must know the long standing UNP position in Badulla district. And to compare the deep seated strength of each party in Badulla, it is best to use the results there at past parliamentry elections. In 2000 general election, UNP got 46.35%, and PA – 42.7% in Badulla. Again at 2001 General elections, UNP got 53.81% and PA, 37.3% and JVP, 7.17% in Badulla. even when UPFA and JVP joined together in 2004 General election, UNP got 49.09% more than UPFA (SLFP+JVP) – 48.26%. At 2005 presidential election UNP got 53% when it lost all island – 48.43%. So it is not wrong to conclude that Badulla is a traditional UNP district.

    2009/10 elections are no ordinary elections because they were held aftermath winning the war against terrorists. People voted for Rajapakse and his appointees enmasse. And that results will never be repeated by any party at any election ever in Sri Lanka. However, that jubilation and euphoria is over and finished. There are new realities since and people have new expectations.

    But let’s see the general election results at 2010 for the sake of interest. UNP got 32.28% in Badulla when they got only 29.34% all island, and UPFA got ‘only’ 58.25% there when it got 60.33% all island, and DNA (JVP = Fonseka) got 4.51% when they got all island 5.49%. What do all those results indicate? It shows, there are UNPers in Badulla who would hang on to their party even at worse times. In otherwords, Badulla is a UNP bastion.

    In my opinion, any UNP candidate can fool voters in Badulla better than any other district in Sri Lanka. And all indications are, Harin has done that perhaps better than any other at anytime . For instant Harin managed to get Ranil and Sajith on the same stage. Not just that he got Ranil to appoint Sajith as the deputy leader of UNP which may not be the real situation. The excitement was so much, hardcore UNPers were expecting Harin to lead the UNP for a win at Buddulla and even become the chief minister with JVP and Fonseka party assistance.

    Alas, even in Badulla district, Harin could get only 44.79% whereas UPFA got 47.37% + (two top independent groups who are UPFA). Why? What hardcore UNPers must appreciate is that over 75% of this country are Sinhalese and over 70% are Sinhala Buddhists. And a good propotion of established UNPers (like Lokubandara) have left the grand old party for good. They left UNP not becaue of Ranil’s inability to win elections but its irreversible trend toward antinationalism. This has became apparent during Ranil’s primeership in 2001-3.

    Now, to answer that question ‘why’ in the above paragraph, one must look into, to what extent opposition charges against Rajapakses stick on the mass. So, go observe the reality that was brought about by Rajapakses on the life of the mass in Sri Lanka. Ask them whether they they see electoral malpractices. Next, ask them whether they enjoy prevailing peace. And next, ask them whether they have a better life now than before Rajapakse taking over the government. Ask also whether they feel Rajapakses are defrauding or cheeting government money or whether they feel Mahinda is a dictator. Of cause neocon paid NGO sharks see things differently.

    Answers for those questions reflect from election results in Monaragala district for it represents 80% of the entire country (population wise) except for few odd placeas like Badulla and the North and the East. And the UPFA got 58.34% and the UNP – 31.92%, JVP – 6.61% and Fonseka reaching the vanishing point in Monaragala district. The question now is whether this lead is sufficient to meet the enmasse (80%) anti Rajapakse vote guaranteed from the North. Do your calculations, I bet it is more than enough.

  • 2
    3

    Kusal:

    UVA is not typical of other Sinhalese provinces because of the Ethnic Mix and the lack of the so called Economic prosperity enjoyed by other provinces.

    The biggest stumbling block to MR winning a Third Term is

    Internally:

    Sarath Silva

    Externally the BJP tightening the screw as the implementation of the 13th Amendment will lead to the down fall of MR as he would have betrayed the 20 million RACIST of Sinhalamisation which he promised .

    Resume talks with TNA, BJP urges Sri Lanka
    Sept 21 (NIE) Muralidhar Rao, general secretary of the BJP in-charge of Tamil Nadu, and Vijay Jolly, global convener of the BJP’s overseas affairs committee, have appealed to President Mahinda Rajapaksa to “immediately” resume talks with the TNA. An immediate resumption of talks is vital for lasting peace in Sri Lanka, they told Rajapaksa at a 45-minute meeting here on Friday

  • 1
    0

    “This was while the Rajapaksa regime abused every State resource, privileges and the space to violate law. They in fact over ruled the Election Commissioner with a Court ruling and distributed 2,500 rupees each as “drought relief” to 100,000 people. Yet the anti regime trend grew conspicuously very large”
    After that UPFA won marginally. They would have lost if they had a fair and a free election.

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